100 Bets to Broke Hennessy to Cheltenham

Peintre Celebre

aidankkk wrote: »

2:40 3m 1f Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase


I like the look of Indian Castle in this at a big looking price. He was all the rage last year for the Kim Muir and was in the process of a top 4 finish when he nearly fell at the last and ended up 7th of 1lbs higher. I think he ran an eye-catching race over too short a trip in the Paddy Power here, and if he can travel that well for most of that race he will do well here over a more suitable longer trip. I think his place chance looks very decent and 25/1 with 5 places is worth a bet.


1 Point EW 25/1 5 Places
Bet365

Ladbrokes went 66/1 on this the other day. Crazy price

longshotvalue

4:00 OLBG Mares' Hurdle

I’ll be shouting on Annie Power like most here but last year’s 3rd L’Unique is clearly too big here at 20/1. She was a fast finishing 3rd last year and ran 2 good races after including a decisive handicap win. She is 6lbs better off with Polly Peachum who beat here last year and really should be at most the same price as that horse around 10/1.

1 Point EW 20/1 Various

longshotvalue

2:05 Arkle

A fairly simple pick here as Gods Own is well overpriced here on some very decent form and plenty of experience compared to most of the field. I think his form with the likes of Balder Success and his win at punchestown last year is fairly eye-popping for a 50/1 Shot and that can’t be let go.

1 Point EW 50/1 Stan James 40/1 Elsewhere

Deco99

You think thats it for tomorrow aidan? Dont do online so I might pop in now or just wait til morning.

Hulk Hands

aidankkk wrote: »

2:05 Arkle

A fairly simple pick here as Gods Own is well overpriced here on some very decent form and plenty of experience compared to most of the field. I think his form with the likes of Balder Success and his win at punchestown last year is fairly eye-popping for a 50/1 Shot and that can’t be let go.

1 Point EW 50/1 Stan James 40/1 Elsewhere

I like him also, although think he's slightly better value at the 20s ew w/o Un De Sceaux. Good ground 2 miles should be perfect

Aidan, would you not go e/w on Jezki if you're having the win bet? Surely 5/4 to finish in the first 3 here is robbery?

Hulk Hands

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Ladbrokes went 66/1 on this the other day. Crazy price

Which I backed PC . Did you???

longshotvalue

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I like him also, although think he's slightly better value at the 20s ew w/o Un De Sceaux. Good ground 2 miles should be perfect

Aidan, would you not go e/w on Jezki if you're having the win bet? Surely 5/4 to finish in the first 3 here is robbery?

Id never bet EW anything less that 20/1 usually, unless there is a huge reaason for it to be placed. If you back Jezki EW at 5/1 it would take 2 units and if he get placed itd basically only break even money back so not really 5/4. 5/4 would be if it was backed to place only with on loosing win portion.

Hulk Hands

aidankkk wrote: »

Id never bet EW anything less that 20/1 usually, unless there is a huge reaason for it to be placed. If you back Jezki EW at 5/1 it would take 2 units and if he get placed itd basically only break even money back so not really 5/4. 5/4 would be if it was backed to place only with on loosing win portion.

If you got offered 5/4 on Jezki to place tomorrow morning on a seperate bet, and you took it, would you then group it with your original win bet? because thats essentially what it is, the place part of an ew bet is completely seperate to the win bet. Seems silly not to take the option of 5/4 first 3 when you have that option. Id have more of the opposite view, 20's+ shots are generally terrible value on the place side (although not always, with extra places on offer mostly). Jezki and TNO are e/w steals tomorrow, although theyre the type of bets that get your accounts closed down

Anyway, we'll be cheering on a lot of the same tomorrow. Backed Keltus at 20s a couple of weeks back also

blindside88

aidankkk wrote: »

2:05 Arkle

A fairly simple pick here as Gods Own is well overpriced here on some very decent form and plenty of experience compared to most of the field. I think his form with the likes of Balder Success and his win at punchestown last year is fairly eye-popping for a 50/1 Shot and that can’t be let go.

1 Point EW 50/1 Stan James 40/1 Elsewhere

Paddy powers special on this race is decent, I've taken gods own ew at 40/1 with money back on the win part of the bet if the favourite wins

ste2010

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Which I backed PC . Did you???

Ian Williams yard starting to strike too. 66 is a nice price. I had shortlisted him and Gevrey chambertin. Can't believe CG is running off 138

Nulty

aidankkk wrote: »

4:00 OLBG Mares' Hurdle

I’ll be shouting on Annie Power like most here but last year’s 3rd L’Unique is clearly too big here at 20/1. She was a fast finishing 3rd last year and ran 2 good races after including a decisive handicap win. She is 6lbs better off with Polly Peachum who beat here last year and really should be at most the same price as that horse around 10/1.

1 Point EW 20/1 Various

8/1 w/o Annie Power with Bet365

Deco99

Gods own @40s second. Great start again.

sdoc13

Srious Shout with Gods Own Aidan. Ran a beltor and made UDS really work for it

Hulk Hands

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I like him also, although think he's slightly better value at the 20s ew w/o Un De Sceaux. Good ground 2 miles should be perfect

Yahoo. Sorry for derailing the thread a bit!!

Johner

Well done lads, cracking start.

Deco99

Indian Castle @20s - 4th. Keep it rolling. Hon Jezki

hurleronditch

anything for tomorrow Aidan? I can see a big one coming, I thought Gods Own might have been it at the bottom of the hill

longshotvalue

4:40 Fred Winter

This race is a bit of a minefield but in struggling to come up with anything I noticed Sebastian Beach at a big price. He was a good 3rd behind Beltor and one of the favourites here in Arabian Revolution. He then won really well of good ground before disappointing when backed heavily on soft ground. If the good ground can bring out the best in him he may well be able to outrun his big price here.

1 Point EW 33/1 Stan James / Sky Bet

longshotvalue

2:40 Coral Cup

Maybe I’ve really lost the plot here but for some reason I can’t get past Rolling Star at a huge price in this. He showed a lot of promise as a 4yo, and actually went of favourite on Our Conors triumph and ran ok. He has been very lightly raced since and came back lately on soft ground with a poor run. But he still has possibilities of improvement and looks worth a gamble to me at a huge 66/1. Ill probably add another one for this race tomorrow but can’t see anything yet

1 Point EW 66/1 5 places SkyBET

longshotvalue

Previously Advised running today


Champion Chase


Sprinter Sacres price of 5/2 is near as good a price as you’ll get anyway (the best being 11/4), and no matter what happens between this and then he won’t go of longer than that if he turns up. Barry was very positive on him and given the possible trouble with Sire De Grugy he could go off long odds on if he runs well on his reappearance.
2 Points win 5/2 NRNB Betfair Sportsbook
I Think that was a great return by Sprinter Sacre and with improvement to come the 3/1 NRNB that is available now will look massive on the day with the sun on his back and good ground.
I have 2 pts at 5/2 NRNB already and im going to top up with another 2 here.
2 Pts win 3/1 NRNB Totesport / Betfred


The price on this doesnt look great now but he is still my pick to win this so fingers crossed


Cross Country Chase

This is one of my best races at the festival over the last 10 years or so and having seen the weights out today I think Duke of Lucca could be shorter here. He was a good staying on 4th last year but has a big weight turnaround with this years form horse Any Currency. It looks a weaker race this year without two of last year’s first 3 and I would expect Duke of Lucca to go of favourite here from the same team as last years winner.


2 Points win 8/1 Bet365 NRNB

This is my bet of the festival and he is probably going to go off at 5-6/1 so the value looks good.

Deco99

Sprinter is out to 7/2 now is this a concern?

longshotvalue

Deco99 wrote: »

Sprinter is out to 7/2 now is this a concern?

I have him backed now so not really.. I dont get at all concernced about price moves in cheltenham, as it doesnt really mean anything when everything is trying. When i picked that it looked like Sire de Grugy wasnt goign to get there and i cant have anything else..

stretchaq

Aidan I was waiting for you to tip barizan for old times sake!!!!!

longshotvalue

stretchaq wrote: »

Aidan I was waiting for you to tip barizan for old times sake!!!!!

im not finished yet, ill be backing him on betfair at near 100 just in case.. Probably wont put him up though..

longshotvalue

2:05 RSA Chase

Adriana Des Mottes has been a bit of a disappointment on a few occasions, but her 3rd last time out in a hot Grade 1 at Leopardstown has a solid look about it, especially when she should be well suited by the step up in trip here. She should travel well in this race and with the decent mares allowance and the trip she stands a better chance than her 28/1 odds.

1 Point EW 28/1 Various

longshotvalue

2:40 Coral Cup

I’m also going for Mijhaar who has disappointed since going over hurdles. He was a very decent flat horse, but in fairness hasn’t had decent ground much over hurdles and has performed better the times he had. This step up in trip will help judging by his other runs and 33/1 looks value.

1 Point EW 33/1 5 places Generally

longshotvalue

4:00

This looks an unbelievably tough race but I’m going to go with Champion Court of his current winnable mark. He has been poor enough this year apart from over this course and distance when he was a good 7th in the paddy power of a much higher mark. Running that race again will put him in the places at least here and give him a small shot of a win at decent looking odds of 25/1 with 5 places.


1 Point EW 25/1 5 Places Sky/365


3:20 World Hurdle

I’ve convinced myself that I was blind all along and Zarkandar should win this. His form is easily the best of these and he has been kept for this for a while. He loves the ground is a proven stayer now and I think that the book is wrong in this today with too many once with little chance at far too short odds. The 6/1 available now looks 2 points too big.


2 Points win 13/2 Coral

longshotvalue

2:05

Trustan Times was 4th in this last year in a race that just couldn’t have worked out any better form wise. He is off 2 lbs lower this year and although he was poor enough in the Haydock Grand National Trial last month , he has in the past run well after hard races like that. He looks the value in the field. 22/1 with 5 places is great value given his consistence in placing at least.


1 Point EW 22/1 5 places Bet365

longshotvalue

4:40

Really tough race as would be expected, but I’m going to go with Ericht here at a huge price. I think he will be suited by the step up in trip and his 3rd here in October really does read well given the 2 ahead of him then. The jockey on board for this Amateur race has a very decent record and I can see him getting into the first 5 here off his current mark. 40/1 with 5 places looks big.


1 Point EW 5 places Coral 40/1

longshotvalue

2:40 Ryanair Chase

This is the tightest race of the festival and I can’t make any decisions about the horses near the top of the market. But I’m going to go with a couple of Longshots for min bets. Wishful Thinking will either win or be last here so I’ll have a small min bet just in case at 33/1 He is in great form this year. Also some of Ballycaseys form really reads well on his good days and if he was to be up for it here he will travel well and might have a chance at this trip. EW value in this race is very poor.


½ Point win both 33/1 Stan James & others

longshotvalue

Previously Advised Ante-Post Running Today
Gold Cup

Bobs Worth looked a world beater last year but didn’t run up to expectations this year, more than likely the ground played a part. I just don’t fancy anything else in the race at the moment and if he can recover his best form (which he will be given a great chance to do with very little runs this year), i think he will win. Taking that into consideration, the current best price of 11/1 looks huge and I’d love to be holding that docket when he lines up in March.

2 Points win 11/1 Various


I think he has a great chance today and i dont mind the rain at all for him he won this in soft ground 2 years ago and he struggles wot keep up on real good ground. Im going to add another point at a silly price of 18/1


1 Point win 18/1 Sporting/888/VCBET


County Hurdle

Wicklow Brave was backed heavily last time out and never got a run at all in the Betfair hurdle having missed the start. I think he is well ahead of the handicapper. He ran an eye-catching race last year in the Supreme and has been poor enough this year, but could well come alive again back here in similar conditions. He will have a light weight and once he gets in hell be involved in the finish. I’m going to gamble on standard anti-post, as I cant resist the 33/1 Available.

1 Point win 33/1 Various


I’m adding another 1pt EW on Wicklow Brave for the County as I was waiting for 33/1 NRNB and that is available with Betfred and totesport
1 Pt EW 33/1 NRNB Betfred Totesport

4:00 Hunter Chase

I was all over Paint the Clouds in this but with the rain now that may not suit him. I think the 10/1 about Salsify looks huge and cant be ignored. He was only o first time out this year but thats the same every year for him. He could be a class ahead of these still and has won one of these on Soft Already. I think he is a 5/1 shot to 10s is massive.


2 Points win 10/1 Generally

longshotvalue

1:30 Triumph


I liked Peace and Co from the start in this and at the current 4/1 and the rain which can only help his cause. Ill have to have a bet.


2 Points win 4/1 William Hill

longshotvalue

5:15 Grand Annual

I’m running out of time before having to walk down in the rain. Next Sensation stands out here from last years race at a very big looking 16/1. My feeling is he can be conserved a bit here and if he can repeat last year run he will be very close.


1 Point EW 16/1

BQQ

Hope you don't mind if I throw a longshot selection up here Aidan.

Native River in the Albert Bartlett (2:40) [50/1 Skybet/StanJames]

Beat Definitely Red over 2m 6f on Soft going at Newcastle in November.
Definitely Red subsequently won twice and is trading at about 20/1 for this while native River can be backed at 50/1.
He was in contention when falling at cheltenham last time out in the race won by Value at Risk.

I think he's a bit overpriced especially given his proven ability on soft


Edit: was going well at the head of affairs then clattered the first on the second circuit. chance gone

zpehtsfd

aidankkk wrote: »

County Hurdle

Wicklow Brave was backed heavily last time out and never got a run at all in the Betfair hurdle having missed the start. I think he is well ahead of the handicapper. He ran an eye-catching race last year in the Supreme and has been poor enough this year, but could well come alive again back here in similar conditions. He will have a light weight and once he gets in hell be involved in the finish. I’m going to gamble on standard anti-post, as I cant resist the 33/1 Available.

1 Point win 33/1 Various


I’m adding another 1pt EW on Wicklow Brave for the County as I was waiting for 33/1 NRNB and that is available with Betfred and totesport
1 Pt EW 33/1 NRNB Betfred Totesport

LOL You deserve it. Kudos.

sdoc13

Suoer Aidan thank god I backed him before the last day. Not sure I would have the way my week was going.

Guffy

Well done Aidan, well done sir. Threw a fiver ew on it this morn cause you kept banging on about it. cheers

Philcan

Great pick Aidan. Thanks a lot.

20carrolls

great stuff Aidan. worth waiting for.

20carrolls

great stuff Aidan. worth waiting for.

thesandeman

Two from two so far. Well done dude.

jimjamcos

Jesus Aidan you are a genius. The fact you had another go at him when posters on here said he wouldn't even run after Saturday proves it.

mr.jingle

jimjamcos wrote: »

Jesus Aidan you are a genius. The fact you had another go at him when posters on here said he wouldn't even run after Saturday proves it.

Although i didn't post it, I was thinking it last week. Fair play to you for keeping the faith, the money last week showed they thought there was something there. Couldn't touch him after that run though

glanman

Thanks a Thousand aidan!

Polo_Mint

Thanks Aidan, Took your tips and very happy I did

hurleronditch

I stuck with you all week, and I'm very very glad I did!! Thanks Aidan

thesandeman

Just W O W!!

madmoose

Aidans on a diff league

madmoose

Top class ive been on him with wicklow for ages so glad that paid off but followed with mext sensation there too.

Midlands national longshot ? :-)

mickey1979

Hopefully someone did an accum