100 Bets to Broke Hennessy to Cheltenham

premierloco

Seriously awesome picking as always Aidan. The final tally on the thread will no doubt be impressive.

Peintre Celebre

Wouldn't have backed him with stolen money but very well done.

gavindublin

A fiver into 486 and 5 days having the craic. Good stuff fella

stretchaq

Aidan I think I speak on behalf of the forum when I say a huge thank you, not just for the winners but the time you put in to write ups and the reasoning behind each selection you and rossom are in a league of your own for this, also enjoyed some of nultys handicap views, well done to all!!!

mailburner

layed wicklow to be placed...thought it was like finding money on the street...how wrong I was

outstanding tipping

fuzzydunlop85

Amazing , great stuff man!

bladespin

Awesome thread, thanks.

Guffy

50 bets to broke Gold Cup to Aintree? :P

longshotvalue

4:05 Carlisle

A quick scan through Fill the Power’s current form reveals he has only been beaten lately by horses than have won or run well very soon afterwards. The likes of Broadway Buffalo, Millborogh, Toby Lerone etc. He is down to a nice mark here with a 3lbs claimer on and really shouldn’t be far away. 7/1 2nd outsider of the field is too big to ignore.

2 Points win 7/1 Generally


Cheltenham report to follow soon.

longshotvalue

Cheltenham Report 2015

Day 1 started well with Gods Own getting 2nd at 50/1 and carried on in that vein with Indian Castle 4th at 25/1. My ante post bet on Jezki never really looked like paying off as Faugheen really won well and rolled in a new era. I had a multiple online with Douvan, UDS and Annie Power, and rather guiltily cashed out on Bet365 before Annie’s Race as when I looked at the bet it turned out I was really just putting a couple of hundred on her which is something I wouldn’t normally do. I also cashed out my day 1 yankee after the 2 big placers as I couldn’t believe that a 1euro EW yankee was worth €345 after 2 placers and I had the backup of a small accum just in case all 4 placed anyway. (more on this later as I think the option of having a small accum in case of a big payout and the cash out option will suit me in the future).The day ended with my brother unbelievably picking the last 3 winners (we share on course winnings to level out variance ),he also landed a 5 horse accum and was Annie Power away from multiple 5 horse and 1 6 horse accum, still it was a huge win in the context of our small stakes

Day 2 Started ok with Adriana des motts just getting run out of the places on the line, but my bet of the meeting Duke of Lucca disappointed, as did Sprinter Sacre. I tend to fall into the trap of betting the older generation and most certainly did here. The 2 Big priced ones in the Coral ran well and will be collecting soon enough I’d imagine. We were on Don Poli as after being against him all along I had a look at the form in the morning and agreed with my brother that he couldn’t be beat. My brother kicked in with another big price placer

Day 3 Vautour was my first Ante post bet unfortunately in the Arkle but I had bet on him here and it was one of the best performances I’ve ever seen here which goes nicely with his stunning supreme win last year. He’s the best horse in training in my view and I can’t wait for him to run again. The rest of the day never really got off the ground which was disappointing as I was fairly confident with some of the decent priced ones in the handicaps, and was very confident that Zarkandar would win, unfortunately the mistake 2 from home killed his winning chance and we’ll never know. I learned a lesson I should have known by now about changing your mind in the Ryanair (less said about that the better)

Day 4 I took the 4/1 about Peace & Co on offer as I felt he was as short a fav really as some of the Mullins ones earlier on this week and the rain wouldn’t be any hindrance to him, he won but probably not as easily as I expected. Then came Wicklow Brave ‘s race a horse I have been banging on about for his last 3 runs. He was the easiest winner of the week and with 2 bets at 33/1 he ensured a good Cheltenham. Again I was caught up in the old ones and Bobs Worth ran poorly. My confidence that Conegree would have won the RSA wasn’t unfounded and it was a stunning win and a major changing of the guard. My brother picked the last 2 winners again today and we had agreed on Next Sensation. That last race has been a huge one for us as we’ve had the winner at a big price in 5 of the last 9 years which we started going. That landed me a nice payout on a Yankee and I got a nice surprise and I forgot I placed an even better one the night before with the 3 winners in it for a nice shock when I got back and checked my balance. When you luck is in your luck is in. Apart from luckbox accums etc and Wicklow Brave I was somewhat carried for the 4 days on my brother’s excellent form, and there is a lot to be said for splitting betting like that at a minefield like Cheltenham.

With 51.5 Points invested in the site tips including ante-post there was a profit of 78.5 points in total which is probably my best Cheltenham ever and really the only lesson is to give up on Ante Post bets in the Championship races as most prices will be bettered on the day.

madmoose

Well done aid, be looking forward to your aintree selections and punchestown ones, im flyin over again for punch but was poor last year eapecially in the caps so any more insight there would be a help. Most of the better horses seem over the top at punch ive noticed after a long season so will keep that in mind.

darced

This post has been deleted.

longshotvalue

2:15 Kelso

Old Favourite Knockara Beau has won a very similar chase to this over this course and distance of a very similar layoff 18 months ago, and has done plenty in the meantime to suggest that he can still perform of this mark albeit being lightly raced. There is some possibility that this might be a last throw at the dice but at 16/1 he is well worth the risk.

1 Point win 16/1 Boylesports 14/1 general

ShaneU

Have already backed it at 20/1 earlier, great price.

Kelso form figures are 131121312

Horse is getting on now but it's hard to argue against a record like that.

William Hill at 8's already

longshotvalue

3:10 Newbury

Imperial Circus has had a bit of a break since a couple of under par runs at the end of last year and is down to a mark which he should be able to get competitive off. He has a decent record fresh as well so 12/1 with Paddy Power does look at bit of value here. He should be suited by decent ground and this trip.

1 Point win 12/1 Paddy Power / Stan James

longshotvalue

2:35 Newbury

The form of a couple of Hannah’s Princess’s races really couldn’t have worked out a better and she looks to be suited by this step up in trip judging by her last run. She probably should be favourite here as her mark looks somewhat lenient. 10/1 looks a small bit of value.

1 Point win 10/1 William Hill

longshotvalue

Ill add Aintree & punchestown into this but so far

after 120 bets and 195 points invested the tread is up 131 Points .

the winners so far are

Twinlight  1 EW 25
Starluck 1 w 7
Ruacana 1 w 8.00
Rock on Ruby 2 w 3.00
Fishing Bridge 1 w 16.00
Blood Cotil 2 w 3.30
Royal Guardsman 1 w 14.00
Wayward Prince’s 1 w 40.00
Next Sensation 1 ew 16.00
Peace and Co 2 w 4.00
Wicklow Brave 1 ew 33.00
Wicklow Brave 1 w 33.00 2nd bet on this one

There will be a few more bets and then ill loose the whole lot again during the flat..:o

Earendil

Some cracking picks in there Aidan, well done.

Miall108

Who do you reckon for aintree aidan?

longshotvalue

Miall108 wrote: »

Who do you reckon for aintree aidan?

nothing yet.. any will be the day before

longshotvalue

3:45 Haydock

Frontier Spirit was my pick for this race last year and he ran a great race of higher mark. He isn’t getting any younger but i had decided that over 20/1 would be of interest. I probably won’t bother with ew at only 3 places and its a min bet as he is 11 now..
½ point win 28/1 generally

longshotvalue

3:10 Haydock

Hada Men is another min bet for me in this race. He is unexposed over fences and is on a decent mark comparative to his hurdles mark. He has had little racing this year which will be an advantage here.. 20/1 looks a bit of value.
½ point win 20/1 generally

longshotvalue

Fairyhouse 3:50

This trip and ground are much more suited to Outlander than the speedy Shaneshill and he looks great value at 5/1 . My guess he will go off shorter .

2 points win 5/1 stanjames/hills

Fairyhouse 4:20

The fav here is a risky proposition at those odds and I'd prefer Valseur Lido to get back to top form here in today's conditions.. I was all ready to tip The Tullow Tank but price wise has scuppered the value there ..

2 points win 9/2 boyles/ladbrokes

longshotvalue

Irish National 5:00 Fairyhouse

Tammys Hill looks reasonably treated here on 135 and he has always looks a class act in Hunter Chases. This looks a poor national and if this has been the plan all year for his he shouldn’t be far away. 25/1 looks value.

Rule the World hasn’t set the world on fire with his novice chases this year but he is a top class animal and although I would prefer better ground for him he has won plenty of times of heavy in the past . He is a though stayer over hurdles and is possibly the 1 horse in this race that could improve considerably here.

Daring Article looks to have been readied for this all year after a poor go at it last year but he has a few very decent handicap performances in his armoury and could well be a bit of a forgotten horse here at a huge price.

1 Point win Tammys Hill 25/1 Paddy Power
1 Point Win Rule the World 44 Betfair
1 Point win Daring Article 50 Betfair

longshotvalue

Fairyhouse 4:55

Dalasiri is one I selected last time out at a big price at Leopardstown and he ran well looking to get outpaced on good ground. These conditions today should suit him better and he has won at this time of the year before. He ran really well on the flat last year, winning a maiden dead heating with a 90 rated AOB colt. If he can transfer that improvement over hurdles and will be better with the soft ground his huge price is going to look massive value.

1 Point EW 33/1 Generally

sdoc13

aidankkk wrote: »

Fairyhouse 4:55

Dalasiri is one I selected last time out at a big price at Leopardstown and he ran well looking to get outpaced on good ground. These conditions today should suit him better and he has won at this time of the year before. He ran really well on the flat last year, winning a maiden dead heating with a 90 rated AOB colt. If he can transfer that improvement over hurdles and will be better with the soft ground his huge price is going to look massive value.

1 Point EW 33/1 Generally

This one is a bit of a cliff horse for me. 40s with BV .

longshotvalue

Aintree 4:40

This looks a difficult race and unfortunately Pricewise has scuppered my value of my original value selection Bellenos. It might be a blessing in disguise though and Baby Mix appeals to me even after a 474 day layoff. He has plenty in his form that suggests that 135 underestimates his ability, particularly a very good Kempton success on good ground. To be honest I was kind of hoping for a bit of a bigger price but 20/1 on Betfair will have to suffice.

2 Points win 21 Betfair

Aintree 2:15

The fav here looks very strong but I get the feeling that the outsider of the field Winner Massagot could get involved here at a huge price. He was poor enough in his first 2 starts but on good ground last time was well backed and won with loads in hand. A 4yo not going to Cheltenham can only be an advantage and he could well stand a good chance of placing here if he can improve another bit. 40/1 is just a bit too big to ignore for EW value

1 Point EW 40/1 Paddy Power/BetV

Aintree 4:05

The form of Quinz last run has worked out pretty well and he was always difficult to get right, but he was generally a good ground flat track specialist and if he can improve for his seasonal reappearance he may well look value here at 50/1. I see plenty of horses shorter that I would give less of a chance to .

1 Point EW 50/1 4 places Various

longshotvalue

Aintree 4:05

This seems an impossible race but Rathlin has always been a better horse on good ground and he will get that here finally tomorrow. He has plenty of good ground form that makes his mark of 147 seem workable. He has been steadily improving this year and if he can cope with these fences, and run from the front he may well have a shot at a huge looking 33/1

1 Point EW 33/1 5 Places Bet365

longshotvalue

3:25 Aintree

Feck it heart ruling head, but I can’t resist Cue Card in this tomorrow. I can’t think of a reason to back anything else as the market look all wrong to me. 2m4f on good ground is possibly a bit short around here for him but I want to be on if he wins and 15/2 is worthwhile. I actually think this race could suit Sire De Grugy as well and he also looks value but I’ll stick with Cue Card.

2 Points win 15/2 SJ/Coral

madmoose

9/1 now cue card could be a cracking ew bet.

longshotvalue

madmoose wrote: »

9/1 now cue card could be a cracking ew bet.

I wouldn't go EW, because if he is on form its a 1 horse race, if not he may not be placed..

Ill be topping up again at the 9s

ft9

aidankkk wrote: »

I wouldn't go EW, because if he is on form its a 1 horse race, if not he may not be placed..

Ill be topping up again at the 9s

Where are Ye getting 9/1?

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Aintree 4:05

This seems an impossible race but Rathlin has always been a better horse on good ground and he will get that here finally tomorrow. He has plenty of good ground form that makes his mark of 147 seem workable. He has been steadily improving this year and if he can cope with these fences, and run from the front he may well have a shot at a huge looking 33/1

1 Point EW 33/1 5 Places Bet365

Great run by this one:D, i was getting excited a couple out but winner pissed in..

longshotvalue

Grand National

I’m going to start with a couple of very big outsiders that might be able to get involved here having had light seasons and shown some potential in the past. I may add another one tomorrow.

Owega Star has shown a fair bit of potential this year and has looked at home of good ground a few times. He was a very good 5th in the Paddy Power and if he can build on that he might just stand a chance here at 100/1.

Super Duty has had very little racing the last couple of years but looked a potential very good stayer and a national prospect when he was just held in the Kim Muir 2 years ago of 1lb higher than this mark. He didn’t do much on his reappearance but if this trainer can improve him and this was the plan he has enough class and ability to stand a real chance here at 80/1

The Rainbow Hunter has been unlucky a few times in this race having been brought down both times but he has shown a nice bit of ability, particularly when winning the Sky Bet Chase last year. I’m hoping he has been set out for this all year and he is another at a huge price of 80/1

1 Point EW Owega Star 100/1 BetVictor 6 places

1 Point EW Super Duty 80/1 BetVictor 6 places

1 Point EW The Rainbow Hunter 80/1 Bet365 5 places

madmoose

How about vino griego tomorrow aid? Back in this race a year on from coming second 2nd off 146 and now off 139.... Poor form of late but im sure this race has been in mind again from g moore.

longshotvalue

madmoose wrote: »

How about vino griego tomorrow aid? Back in this race a year on from coming second 2nd off 146 and now off 139.... Poor form of late but im sure this race has been in mind again from g moore.

He might win but he is far too short.. i never mind a horse with pp0 after their name but ill be looking for 20/1..

I like another one at the moment in that race, ill be putting it up later.

longshotvalue

Aintree 5:10

Ballyglasheen could well be suited to this race and although its more of a gut feeling selection I’m happy to take a flyer at 50/1. He had a very good win against my favourite horse last year, and with the jockeys 5lbs claim he is on around the same mark.

1 Point EW 50/1 Stan James

longshotvalue

Aintree 3:25
Bobowen
should be suited by this race judging by his summer plate win on good ground 2 years ago. He hasn’t had much racing since but hopefully he will be up for this after a relatively poor seasonal opener. Some of my old favourites are in this race but all appear to be a bit short for value.

1 Point win 16/1 VC/Paddy

BQQ

aidankkk wrote: »

Grand National

I’m going to start with a couple of very big outsiders that might be able to get involved here having had light seasons and shown some potential in the past. I may add another one tomorrow.

Owega Star has shown a fair bit of potential this year and has looked at home of good ground a few times. He was a very good 5th in the Paddy Power and if he can build on that he might just stand a chance here at 100/1.

Super Duty has had very little racing the last couple of years but looked a potential very good stayer and a national prospect when he was just held in the Kim Muir 2 years ago of 1lb higher than this mark. He didn’t do much on his reappearance but if this trainer can improve him and this was the plan he has enough class and ability to stand a real chance here at 80/1

The Rainbow Hunter has been unlucky a few times in this race having been brought down both times but he has shown a nice bit of ability, particularly when winning the Sky Bet Chase last year. I’m hoping he has been set out for this all year and he is another at a huge price of 80/1

1 Point EW Owega Star 100/1 BetVictor 6 places

1 Point EW Super Duty 80/1 BetVictor 6 places

1 Point EW The Rainbow Hunter 80/1 Bet365 5 places

Interesting jockey booking on Super Duty though it may not look so at first glance.

With Dr Newland running two including last year's winner and Leighton Aspell riding Many Clouds, I had a look to see who usually rides for him to see if the other was better fancied.
However, I found that Will Kennedy rides most of his that don't have claimers on board, but he's not riding either of them - he's on Super Duty.

Probably reading too much into it, but I'll be following you on that one anyway.

longshotvalue

I’ve been expecting the price on Chance du Roy to come down given his good record here but since he has in fact gone out to 50/1 I can’t see any reason not to have an EW bet at what looks double the price he should be. He can perform of this mark over these fences on this ground what more could anyone ask for.

1 Point EW 50/1 Various 5 places

longshotvalue

Ayr 3:05

It’s been a while since Conquisto has got what he’s needed good ground. He has run ok a few times this year over hurdles on soft ground but he is a much better chaser on his day and of a mark of 143 with a 7lbs claimer on here he could well be right in with a shout here. He has also won around here before albeit over a shorter trip.
I think it’s significant that he has a claimer on, is running in his first chase in a while, and has his ground. 14/1 looks value

2 Points win 14/1 Stan/Lads/Hills

Dave147

Conquisto could've won that and definitely should've placed, not sure if I blame the jockey or the horse for the poor jumping at the last few hurdles but I'd be confident he could go on and win next time. Thanks for the tip anyway.

longshotvalue

Dave147 wrote: »

Conquisto could've won that and definitely should've placed, not sure if I blame the jockey or the horse for the poor jumping at the last few hurdles but I'd be confident he could go on and win next time. Thanks for the tip anyway.

He's sure to improve through the summer. Value might be gone as he wont be a decent price next time

longshotvalue

Ayr 3:45 Scottish Grand National

Benbens looks the value in this field. He has a couple of runs this year of this mark that would put him right in there with a shout here. He only got half way at Cheltenham so that shouldn’t have an effect as it might on a lot of these. He is in here of a very light weight with a 7lbs claimer and 10 st to start with. His place chances look very strong to me as well so 33/1 EW with 5 places looks great value

1 Point EW 33/1 5 places Generally

Cape Tribulations good 2nd in the Rowland Meyrick earlier this year showed enough to make it possible he might still be capable of a big show this year. He has been poor lately but I’m hopeful that decent ground and a step up in trip might be just the thing to get him going. He is off a workable mark and a nice light weight which can only help here.

1 Point EW 33/1 5 places Generally

longshotvalue

moved to other tread

longshotvalue

Ayr 2:30

It’s been a long time since Cinders & Ashes was in top form but he gave an indication that he isn’t totally gone at the game when 3rd a few runs ago. He was carried out last time and with a very quiet season and the stable beginning to show tiny bits of form maybe now is the time for him to take advantage of his low mark. He’s worth the risk at 16/1

1 Point win 16/1 Generally

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Ayr 3:45 Scottish Grand National

Benbens looks the value in this field. He has a couple of runs this year of this mark that would put him right in there with a shout here. He only got half way at Cheltenham so that shouldn’t have an effect as it might on a lot of these. He is in here of a very light weight with a 7lbs claimer and 10 st to start with. His place chances look very strong to me as well so 33/1 EW with 5 places looks great value

1 Point EW 33/1 5 places Generally

Cape Tribulations good 2nd in the Rowland Meyrick earlier this year showed enough to make it possible he might still be capable of a big show this year. He has been poor lately but I’m hopeful that decent ground and a step up in trip might be just the thing to get him going. He is off a workable mark and a nice light weight which can only help here.

1 Point EW 33/1 5 places Generally

Feck thought he had it there .. Old selections came back to haunt ..

Howjoe1

aidankkk wrote: »

Feck thought he had it there .. Old selections came back to haunt ..

great effort. Looked the one to be on coming to the last, not a shabby price for a place.

SmallBalls

Thought he had it myself....good pick Aidan.

longshotvalue

Bet365 Gold Cup

This race looks to have a lot of runners with question marks, and that said I’m going to go for the biggest question mark of all. Bobs Worth could well have his perfect race here over this trip on good ground. I honestly don’t think he would be running if they didn’t feel he can improve on this season’s performances. He has been put in this with a great chance of 159 and I’m willing to take a chance at 12/1. This mark looks silly when you look at the form of the horses on the same weight.

2 Points win 12/1 Various

The other I’m going for here is Grandads Horse right at the other end of the market. He can perform of this mark and I think he looks better on good ground. We really need to forgive him his last pulled up on a bog at Haydock for him to have any chance, but aside from that run he has had a very good season and might just enjoy this spin around of a very light weight. I think he is great value to be placed at least here at 40/1 given his fairly consistent profile.

1 Point ew 40/1 5 places bet365/Paddy Power