100 Bets to Broke Hennessy to Cheltenham

longshotvalue

Sandown 2:00

I’ve a sneaky feeling that Mercoeur hasn’t showed his full hand yet. He came back after a break to be second lately and he may well be better on good ground as his best performance yet on 2nd on good ground to a very decent yardstick. First time blinkers as well here all points to today being the day, and he is in here of a very light weight. 14/1 with Ladbrokes looks value.

1 Point win 14/1 Ladbrokes

longshotvalue

Sandown 4:25

Clondaw Kaempfer came into form fairly suddenly at the end of last year of a couple of pounds higher than this mark and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he did the same again here in a similar race. The stable has started to find a bit of form (not shooting the lights out but an improvement all the same). 33/1 is too big to ignore.

1 Point EW 33/1 365/888/32red

Lt J.R. Bell

Giving Gods Own another chance

longshotvalue

Irish Handicaps aren't really my thing, in fact Irish Racing in general is a losing proposition, but it would be no fun to not put anything up so here goes.

4:55

Indian Icon had his first decent run in a while last time out and finished a decent 7th in a similar race to this but on soft ground which won’t have suited him judging by his best form as a 4yo. The stable are getting into form as well and if he can improve on his 7th last time he looks very decent value off a lower mark on decent ground with 5 places EW.

1 Point EW 33/1 PaddyPower 5 places

5:30

This is a strange race with all sorts of out of form and horses that won’t be suited by the ground etc. The favourite is purely a Cheltenham horse for me and I’m going to go down the betting for a bit of value in Flemenstar. His front running style may be suited to this race and if he is fitter than his last run , which was his first for a long time I would expect him to be competitive here. I had a price in my head of 14/1 or bigger so the 20/1 with boyles is well worth the risk.

1 Point win 20/1 Boyles

6:40

Opposing Don Poli feels like setting fire to money but he is very short here and I strongly feel that Wounded Warrior is the 2nd best horse in this race over this trip. He let Don Poli away from him in the RSA about 3 out but really finished the race well and his overall form looks to me to be stronger than the other 2 for this race. 12/1 looks a big price In case anything happens the fav here.

1 Point win Wounded Warrior 12/1 Generally

longshotvalue

6:05 Punchestown

There isn’t a lot between most of these that ran in the Festival bumper apart from Modus and its clear to me that the value might be Bay of Freedom at the prices. 66 or 50/1 is too big for a couple of lengths difference between this and many of the others . He looks an EW bet worth chancing and I’ll go with the 50/1 and 4 places on paddy power for a small bet.

1 Point ew 50/1 Paddy Power 50/1 4 Places

longshotvalue

6:40 Punchestown

This race looks ideal for You must Know Me , he had had a very light season and came good at this time last year with a very good run in the Topham at Aintree. For some reason he is 4lbs lower here after mostly very decent runs since and I don’t think he will be far away here. He looks more of an 8/1 shot to me and 12/1 is great value

2 Point win 12/1 Various

longshotvalue

4:15 Punchestown

Dick Dundee ran a great race in the best 2 mile handicap of the year at Cheltenham and having just faded out of it in the end he may be suited to this race on slightly better ground with an easier finish. He is no 25/1 shot given he is a couple of pounds down and with a decent 5lbs claimer on this time. He possibly went after the winner a bit early that time and with a bit more restraint this time he should be in the firing line

1 Point EW 25/1 Bet365/Stan James

5:30 Punchestown

This race is littered with possible non stayers and if Thousand Stars is fitter this time after his very good return last time out he is no 14/1 shot. Not much explanation needed he is well capable of outrunning 14/1.

1 Point win 14/1 Generally

6:05 Punchestown

Black Benny was poor enough last time after a break, but has been an improving chaser of late. He has a very attractive hurdles mark in comparison and has in the past a few very decent hurdles runs of higher marks that this. He has been given a small break again here and of a career low mark he should be able to get involved in this at a huge 33/1

1 Point EW 33/1 Lads/Stan James

3:40 Punchestown

Battling Boru has been very consistent in this type of race for a while now and although this is a step down in trip it may suit judging by his last run. He looks to have a very high chance of placing of a decent mark with a 5lbs claimer on today at a huge 33/1 with 5 places .

1 Point ew 33/1 5 places Bet365

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

3:40 Punchestown

Battling Boru has been very consistent in this type of race for a while now and although this is a step down in trip it may suit judging by his last run. He looks to have a very high chance of placing of a decent mark with a 5lbs claimer on today at a huge 33/1 with 5 places .

1 Point ew 33/1 5 places Bet365

nice start placed 5th at 33/1

Polo_Mint

aidankkk wrote: »

nice start placed 5th at 33/1

Good Call

I put €5 EW on all your horse listed with PP

I got this
You benefited from our Extra Places bonus to the value of €46.25

I didnt notice it when I placed the bet

Anyways thanks for the tip and hopefully something comes with the rest

longshotvalue

4:20 Punchestown

I’m fairly confident that Blood Cotil is well handicapped here. He should be better over this trip than the 2 miles he has been running well at this year, and his form is littered with very high standard novice form. Ruby must think the top weight is some horse to be able to give the selection 10 lbs but I’m hopeful he is wrong here. He was backed into an outrageous price in the Grand Annual, but hit a fence early and never recovered, so he must be doing something right at home. 14/1 looks huge even in this race.

2 Points win 14/1 Generally

longshotvalue

7:45 Punchestown

I can’t understand how Noble Prince is 20/1 in this hunter chase. I realise he is an unlikely winner as the fav really is in the form of his life but there won’t be much between him and the likes of Pearlysteps and Vital Plot who are both shorter in the market. He used to like decent ground and was the highest rated of these. I recon he is about evens to place here.

1 Point EW 20/1 Bet365 & Boyles

rossom

aidankkk wrote: »

4:20 Punchestown

I’m fairly confident that Blood Cotil is well handicapped here. He should be better over this trip than the 2 miles he has been running well at this year, and his form is littered with very high standard novice form. Ruby must think the top weight is some horse to be able to give the selection 10 lbs but I’m hopeful he is wrong here. He was backed into an outrageous price in the Grand Annual, but hit a fence early and never recovered, so he must be doing something right at home. 14/1 looks huge even in this race.

2 Points win 14/1 Generally

Agree with this one but fancy Mr Fiftyone more. Found things happening too quickly in the Grand Annual and his jumping just didn't hold up at that pace. Have backed BC as well

BQQ

aidankkk wrote: »

4:20 Punchestown

I’m fairly confident that Blood Cotil is well handicapped here. He should be better over this trip than the 2 miles he has been running well at this year, and his form is littered with very high standard novice form. Ruby must think the top weight is some horse to be able to give the selection 10 lbs but I’m hopeful he is wrong here. He was backed into an outrageous price in the Grand Annual, but hit a fence early and never recovered, so he must be doing something right at home. 14/1 looks huge even in this race.

2 Points win 14/1 Generally

He's been wrong several times this week already.
Paul Townend would probably have been let ride Rebecca curtis' one if this didn't have a good chance.
Definitely looks value

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

4:20 Punchestown

I’m fairly confident that Blood Cotil is well handicapped here. He should be better over this trip than the 2 miles he has been running well at this year, and his form is littered with very high standard novice form. Ruby must think the top weight is some horse to be able to give the selection 10 lbs but I’m hopeful he is wrong here. He was backed into an outrageous price in the Grand Annual, but hit a fence early and never recovered, so he must be doing something right at home. 14/1 looks huge even in this race.

2 Points win 14/1 Generally

:D:D:D:D

magicmoves

aidankkk wrote: »

:D:D:D:D

Cheers for the tip

hurleronditch

aidankkk wrote: »

4:20 Punchestown

I’m fairly confident that Blood Cotil is well handicapped here. He should be better over this trip than the 2 miles he has been running well at this year, and his form is littered with very high standard novice form. Ruby must think the top weight is some horse to be able to give the selection 10 lbs but I’m hopeful he is wrong here. He was backed into an outrageous price in the Grand Annual, but hit a fence early and never recovered, so he must be doing something right at home. 14/1 looks huge even in this race.

2 Points win 14/1 Generally

Some man Aidan!! Had Mr Fiftyone as the second leg of a big double based on Rossoms tip but did BC as an EW single saver and very glad I did. Great picking once more

rossom

Nice one mate. Had a saver on him but wish he did that at Chelt as he would have won me 5k had he won the Grand Annual!

bladespin

Awresum - that is all!

madmoose

Get in aid.

gavindublin

That's the weekend sorted!

Lt J.R. Bell

Paul Townend is some jockey (no **** Sherlock) he is not even 30 yet. Hope when he's free, he continues going over to Britian. According to At The Races, even though he has ridden 10 less than Mccoy, for Curtis, he has 3 more winners in the last year . Lol

Oh, for once, I decided not to ignore your tips. I even accidentially went to win as oppose each way.Brilliant.

Covers the crazy prices for train tickets, since buses are on strike, and have change for sweets. Lovely stuff

minibear

aidankkk wrote: »

4:20 Punchestown

I’m fairly confident that Blood Cotil is well handicapped here. He should be better over this trip than the 2 miles he has been running well at this year, and his form is littered with very high standard novice form. Ruby must think the top weight is some horse to be able to give the selection 10 lbs but I’m hopeful he is wrong here. He was backed into an outrageous price in the Grand Annual, but hit a fence early and never recovered, so he must be doing something right at home. 14/1 looks huge even in this race.

2 Points win 14/1 Generally

Thanks Aidan!

Bangor Billy

Cheers Aidan. Set me up for a nice profitable evening at God's own racecourse,

madmoose

aidankkk wrote: »

7:45 Punchestown

I can’t understand how Noble Prince is 20/1 in this hunter chase. I realise he is an unlikely winner as the fav really is in the form of his life but there won’t be much between him and the likes of Pearlysteps and Vital Plot who are both shorter in the market. He used to like decent ground and was the highest rated of these. I recon he is about evens to place here.

1 Point EW 20/1 Bet365 & Boyles

You was unlucky with this fella going down a length but ew money top tipping again different gravy.

Thoughts for tomorrow?

longshotvalue

Punchestown 3:10

Cross Appeal is one I’ve tried before without success but he appeals here at a big price on his first run back from a break. He actually has a very decent record fresh and a couple of his last few runs give him a definite chance here of this mark. I’ll go for the extra place here with bet365 as 25/1 with those terms looks the best value


1 Point EW 25/1 Bet365 5 places

longshotvalue

Punchestown 3:50

Analifet looks a bit underestimated here in the w/o Annie market. She is an improving horse with 2 very good runs lately. I think there is nothing between her and Katie T, but the selection is 7/2 and Katie T is odds on. I would have them more or less the same so that kind of margin can’t be ignored. I also think coming second may suite her rather than actually having to try and get her head in front


2 Points Win 7/2 W/O Annie Power Betfair/Will Hill

longshotvalue

Punchestown 5:00

Aupcharlie has flattered to deceive a few times as he generally travels well in his races. I think he needs this step up in trip and in fact had some very decent novice performance’s over this trip. He is down to a workable mark with a 5lbs claimer on today and that should bring him right into the action here. 25/1 looks a bit generous because he isn’t the stable choice but that wouldn’t really effect his chances much as both have solid chances in my mind.


1 Point EW 25/1 Generally

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Punchestown 3:50

Analifet looks a bit underestimated here in the w/o Annie market. She is an improving horse with 2 very good runs lately. I think there is nothing between her and Katie T, but the selection is 7/2 and Katie T is odds on. I would have them more or less the same so that kind of margin can’t be ignored. I also think coming second may suite her rather than actually having to try and get her head in front


2 Points Win 7/2 W/O Annie Power Betfair/Will Hill

lovely stuff, that was a silly price... Won the other race handily:D

langer91

aidankkk wrote: »

lovely stuff, that was a silly price... Won the other race handily:D

As always Aidan, unbelievable picking cheers mate.

longshotvalue

This is the final bet on this tread, and ill have the figures later on this week. Perhaps its right to finish on an old fav of mine.

Kempton 3:10

Vino Greigo has been one I’ve been expecting to do something this year but luckily I’ve steered clear most of the time as he hasn’t really done anything of note since a half reasonable seasonal opener. I think today’s race may suit him and the drop in class is badly needed. One of my other cliff horses Champion Court could be dangerous but the step up in trip hasn’t worked in the past. 11/1 about Vino looks worth a bet in this race, as although he stopped last time out in a better race he did travel well for a lot of the way and may be able to extend that today.


1 Point win 11/1 Generally.

3:45 Kempton

A Cor Et A Cri has French form that would make this race of this mark a complete forgone conclusion. He was 4th behind Aux Ptits Soins & Arbre De Vie. The step up in trip will more than likely suit and basically I’m just going to take a gamble that he will be backed today and if so the current 10/1 will look value. He was very poor on his British debut, but it may be significant that he hasn’t been put away for the season yet.


1 Point win 10/1 Various

longshotvalue

Just realised there will be 1 final bet on this tread for the year.

Who can guess the bet.. Anyone following for a while will know for sure..

Roll on Saturday:D

jimjamcos

aidankkk wrote: »

Just realised there will be 1 final bet on this tread for the year.

Who can guess the bet.. Anyone following for a while will know for sure..

Roll on Saturday:D

Haha 2nd and 1st last two years. Gotta love repeat offenders, especially at 33/1! Haven't looked at the race, but are you very strong on him? Would you back him now?

sdoc13

aidankkk wrote: »

Just realised there will be 1 final bet on this tread for the year.

Who can guess the bet.. Anyone following for a while will know for sure..

Roll on Saturday:D

I was thinking the other day that this race must be soon and that I would back him if ground good. Hope the ground comes up in his favour and he is a cert to place at least.

tomaussie

Not far from the course. Been raining a good bit today.

Tomorrow looks fairly dry but Friday afternoon through to Saturday afternoon looks like pretty persistent rain. I'd be shocked if it was any better than good to soft.

longshotvalue

jimjamcos wrote: »

Haha 2nd and 1st last two years. Gotta love repeat offenders, especially at 33/1! Haven't looked at the race, but are you very strong on him? Would you back him now?

I'm not that strong on him this year, but it wont matter ill have to select him just in case, and once there is any good in the ground description he is sure to be in top nick for this . That flat run was surly only because he was a bit short of fitness..

I'm tempted by the 33/1 there now, but ill wait until NRNB and bang in a EW bet..

The tv would be in serious trouble if i watched him win this and i hadn't put him up..

Pinesky

Forecast ground is good to soft. i know he's best on quick ground but it was officially soft last year when second.

longshotvalue

Pinesky wrote: »

Forecast ground is good to soft. i know he's best on quick ground but it was officially soft last year when second.

Good-Soft and hes no 33/1 shot, but id advise betting as soon as NRNB is available as there is no chance he goes of at a huge price.

Anyway maybe its too much to ask for 3 good runs in a row in that race.. Ill be roaring him on anyway..

Guffy

aidankkk wrote: »

Good-Soft and hes no 33/1 shot, but id advise betting as soon as NRNB is available as there is no chance he goes of at a huge price.

Anyway maybe its too much to ask for 3 good runs in a row in that race.. Ill be roaring him on anyway..

So what's the name or race?

longshotvalue

gufc21 wrote: »

So what's the name or race?

Sorry Barizan in the Swinton on Saturday. He was my most confident selection ever 2 years ago in this at 20/1, and was second last year.

longshotvalue

Time to put it up for value there now.

1 Point EW 33/1 Paddy Power Barizan Haydock Swinton Hurdle Antepost

Its being backed in other bookies, so this price wont last.

Wont this 2 years ago and was second last year, once the ground isnt a bog he'll have a great chance.

Niallers87

Would i be able to get that ante post price in the shops?

longshotvalue

Niallers87 wrote: »

Would i be able to get that ante post price in the shops?

yep ive just been, but i would think that price isnt going to last very long

retalivity

into 20/1 with PP now

magicmoves

25-1 with betfair

ShaneU

I thought it was Pastoral Player in the Victoria Cup you were hinting at!:D Backed Barizan 2 years ago thanks to Aidan, no problem backing it again

longshotvalue

ShaneU wrote: »

I thought it was Pastoral Player in the Victoria Cup you were hinting at!:D Backed Barizan 2 years ago thanks to Aidan, no problem backing it again

Well i did that double 2 years ago with Barizan 20/1 and Excellent Guest 25/1 and ill be going for the exact same double again with the same horses, ill probably be adding pastoral player as well but not sure yet..

shy-tall-knight

Excellent Guest has not been declared for Saturday nor is Rebellious Guest, Margasson relying solely on Shyron.

green n gold

Hi, just went on live chat with Bet365 asking when NRNB would apply to the Swinton Hurdle, was told not yet and when pressed him would it become active at final decs stage at lunchtime, his not too well informed advice would be that it would not be in until an active Saturday market was formed. Surely NRNB would be in for a race like this sooner ?

longshotvalue

Soft Ground at Haydock doesn't bode well for Barizan..

Haydock 1:45

I’ve convinced myself that Pearl Swan could well get back to form in this race. I selected him at the Festival and he ran a great race at a huge price, but was poor at Aintree after. I’m hopeful that the step up in trip will suit and I’m fairly sure that Paul Nichols would have put him away for the season if he didn’t feel there was a better performance in him
.
1 Point win 9/1 Various

jobeenfitz

aidankkk wrote: »

Soft Ground at Haydock doesn't bode well for Barizan..

Haydock 1:45

I’ve convinced myself that Pearl Swan could well get back to form in this race. I selected him at the Festival and he ran a great race at a huge price, but was poor at Aintree after. I’m hopeful that the step up in trip will suit and I’m fairly sure that Paul Nichols would have put him away for the season if he didn’t feel there was a better performance in him
.
1 Point win 9/1 Various

This is 8's with PP, money back as a free bet on singles if finishing 2nd or 3rd. Online bets.