2015 share picks.

lucky john

I have Malin on the watch list as a share with potential. -6% today. has been trading in a very tight band since launch so obviously something big. was one of the companies they invested in firing blanks??

ABC101

Yep a lot of blood on the tracks these last few months.... some commentators on Seeking Alpha refer to the last few weeks as a massacre.

Commodities have taken a huge beating..... energy / metals etc.

With oil below the cost of production for a lot of companies / nations.... the worm must turn at some stage.

If you had a wad a cash it may be a good time to buy into Shell etc.

Unfortunately only one problem.... no cash... however I hope to buy back into the market in December / January.

rain_soaked

ABC101 wrote: »

Yep a lot of blood on the tracks these last few months.... some commentators on Seeking Alpha refer to the last few weeks as a massacre.

Commodities have taken a huge beating..... energy / metals etc.

With oil below the cost of production for a lot of companies / nations.... the worm must turn at some stage.

If you had a wad a cash it may be a good time to buy into Shell etc.

Unfortunately only one problem.... no cash... however I hope to buy back into the market in December / January.

even shells share price stays where it is for the next ten years , providing the dividend remains , its a good investment

those are big ifs of course , they have paid far too much for BG , the price of oil and gas has collapsed since they agreed on that purchase , shell has being doing very poorly for years , its share price today is where it was in 1999 , the only real star performer of the super majors is exxon mobil ( granted its SP has slumped like every other major of late ) but its dividend is about the same as that of microsoft ( 3% ) , i know which company id rather stick a few quid in

Grawns

Bought Glencore this morning at £1.02. Can't seem to diversify and still have dragon oil spoils left to invest. Closed at £1.15

Was very close to buying Tullow on holidays a week ago at £1.70 now £2.08, Bah! Still might though.


Am in for the long term. Note to self to sell in 5-7 years.

rain_soaked

Grawns wrote: »

Bought Glencore this morning at £1.02. Can't seem to diversify and still have dragon oil spoils left to invest. Closed at £1.15

Was very close to buying Tullow on holidays a week ago at £1.70 now £2.08, Bah! Still might though.


Am in for the long term. Note to self to sell in 5-7 years.

be surprised if tullow isnt bankrupt within five years

Grawns

rain_soaked wrote: »

be surprised if tullow isnt bankrupt within five years

Yep, lots of folks talking it down but it still has proven value. Oil won't stay low forever and is up again today coincidently Tullow closed up 7% today.
Still on the fence about them.

I'd take that bet on providence though but more like 5 months!

Grawns

OK I'm up 20% on glencore since Monday. Tullow are up. 85p) 50% since I looked at them 10 days ago.

I think perhaps we might be looking at a rebound on oil and minerals! Worth looking at.

Grawns

Taking a punt on Orphir OPHR
Spend spend spend spend

Note to self Diversify!

Grawns

Lonmin
Spend.....

euroboom13

euroboom13 wrote: »

Update after black Monday(the great fall of china )
24 Aug 2015

1)INM (13c) now 16c......year high 23c
2)boi (33c) now 32.5c......year high 39c
3)Tescos (168p) now 182p.......year high 250p
4)greencore (290p) now 275p......year high 359p


Note to one self....... take your profit;)

1)INM (13c) now 17.3c......year high 23c
2)boi (33c) now 31.5c......year high 39c
3)Tescos (168p) now 169.3p.......year high 250p
4)greencore (290p) now 323.6p......year high 359p

Some recover some don't ,still a good year thou GLA

ABC101

I'm glad I sold all my AIB shares last year, got out at 14 cent!

BoI....taken a real beating, a real dog in the manger this year, but hopefully will pick up after the promissory notes get cleared up.

However stocks seem to be becoming very volatile, very hard to predict which way the markets are going.

daheff

ABC101 wrote: »

BoI....taken a real beating, a real dog in the manger this year, but hopefully will pick up after the promissory notes get cleared up.

However stocks seem to be becoming very volatile, very hard to predict which way the markets are going.

I think BoI is being punished a bit because of AIB's current restructure.

I still think a good buy at anything under 34c. I see upside to about 40c (and more when divs are reintroduced). I got out at 39 during the summer and back in at around 32.5 recently. Slightly underwater but not worried.

Also have HBRN (1.287) vs 1.38 currently
KRZ (66.25) vs 74.20 currently

beard_grower

anyone got a view on independent news and media , PE is only 7

nuac

Grawns wrote: »

Lonmin
Spend.....

Isn't that a successor to the infamous Lonrho, called the unacceptable face of capitalism

lucky john

lucky john wrote: »

New year, new thread.

........ Pick a company, index, commodity you think will make you money if you were to buy now and sell it this time next year. ........

Late in the year but I have two that appeal now and I've pulled the trigger, 80% on the first, 20% on the second.

I have little intention of keeping either for a full year if the increases come sooner, as soon as both increase by 40% I'm out, I fully expect that to happen within 12 months for the first one, the second one may take a tad longer.

1) BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. $97

Peaked at almost $150 in July but lately the shares have fallen gradually heading up to a meeting between Biomarin and the FDA on Tuesday next..
http://investors.bmrn.com/releasedetail.cfm?releaseid=919809
http://investors.bmrn.com/releasedetail.cfm?releaseid=936743
http://www.thestreet.com/story/13347422/1/fda-letter-raises-questions-about-biomarin-handling-of-muscular-dystrophy-drug.html

My view is the market is essentially presuming a "No" from the FDA, I don't think the share price will fall much lower and if there's a "Yes" the price will rise quite quickly.

2) Resverlogix Corp. $1.76
This hit $2 on Fri 06th Nov from $1.53 on COB the previous day in response to progressing to Phase 3 clinical trial...
http://www.mygtn.tv/story/30448584/stonegate-capital-partners-initiates-coverage-on-resverlogix-corp

Trial will run all going well to 2018 but I expect the share price to increase gradually along the way.

The final piece is anyone looking for a quick in and out (a week or so for a quick 10%)...
Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc $90.85 now from a low of $70 on Tuesday, I fully expect the latest rally to continue to over $105, the market really overreacted to Valeant's woes, their revenue stream is healthy and the issues aren't related to product quality etc. I'm on these as they came down, not as low as $70 unfortunately but will be getting out at just under the $100 mark.

daheff

beard_grower wrote: »

anyone got a view on independent news and media , PE is only 7

personally wouldn't touch it with a barge pole. Print media is declining and INM don't seem to have a sustainable long term digital program. Yes they do seem to be putting more adverts online, but I cant see it working with the number of regional papers (mostly offline).

Andrea B.

Has anyone reaped the benefit of Datalex performance this past year?
Based on a Phoenix mag article in 2004 I bought in at 64cent. ..............and so glad I never sold😊
Hit alltimehigh of e2.90 this morning.

thekerrycyclist

Andrea B. wrote: »

Has anyone reaped the benefit of Datalex performance this past year?
Based on a Phoenix mag article in 2004 I bought in at 64cent. ..............and so glad I never sold😊
Hit alltimehigh of e2.90 this morning.

I bought at 85 cent and just sold the value of my initial cost... Just wish I had put a few more euro in

Grecco

Grecco wrote: »

Stobart Group Ltd LON: STOB Will benefit immensely from the cheap Oil, new routes been developed, lots of potential to expand. Share price at £1.09, should hit £1.50 before the years out.

UCB Pharma EBR: UCB A medium size Pharmaceutical co. which has a good revenue stream, and some nice revenue earning drugs. Opened a new Bio-pharma plant this year, 3 Blockbuster drugs at final stages of approval, an one of them will catapult this co forward. Currently trading at €63 should easily hit €75 by mid 2015.

Qualcomm (QCOM)
"The company hit a rough patch in 2014 as an investigation by China's National Development and Reform Commission for monopolistic practices has hurt its ability to collect licensing fees on some handsets manufactured in China. These licensing issues hurt earnings per share by roughly 5 percent over the last two quarters. Ultimately, China and Qualcomm need each other. China would like to grow its nascent foundry business (semiconductor production), and Qualcomm shifting some production to China would be a good start. On the flip side, China is approving licenses for 4G service and the growth in 4G handsets in China is a significant and growing driver of global handset growth. Average handset prices are declining, though the rate of decline is likely to moderate as emerging market middle classes grow and buy more expensive phones. " -- not my own words but a good summary from CNBC
Qualcom should hit $100 by the end of 2015

Finally
Put cash into Sterling. A full-scale quantitative easing in the euro zone looked all but certain as the German economy is now starting to struggle especially now that the Russian market is getting hammered. Expect the Euro to fall to as low as 70p by the year end.

Been a great year for UCB PHARMA up to €81 now.
Stobart has been flat with little or no movement all year.
I took a pasting on Qualcomm earlier this year and lost nearly $10 a share before bailing out, thankfully the weak euro vs the dollar softened the blow. Currently trading at $49 I`m tempted to buy back in now again.
And finally as predicted Sterling has gone from strength to strength now a euro is worth only 70p!!

ABC101

Andrea B. wrote: »

Has anyone reaped the benefit of Datalex performance this past year?
Based on a Phoenix mag article in 2004 I bought in at 64cent. ..............and so glad I never sold😊
Hit alltimehigh of e2.90 this morning.

Datalex....interesting stock.

I've kept an eye on data lex since 2005, never bought in but well done to those who did.

However is it not currently overvalued ? SP to earnings? According to Bloomberg a P/E of 91.2!!

Augeo

Augeo wrote: »

..........

The final piece is anyone looking for a quick in and out (a week or so for a quick 10%)...
Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc $90.85 now from a low of $70 on Tuesday, I fully expect the latest rally to continue to over $105, the market really overreacted to Valeant's woes, their revenue stream is healthy and the issues aren't related to product quality etc. I'm on these as they came down, not as low as $70 unfortunately but will be getting out at just under the $100 mark.

Days like this I am very happy that one can have their desired sale terms set up and waiting

Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc hit $97.35 earlier today, closed at $87.34 !!

Value at that $87.34 I think but I'll take the profit and run.

Andrea B.

However is it not currently overvalued ? SP to earnings? According to Bloomberg a P/E of 91.2!!

Yes, but that is not my consideration to retai. I believe there to be a high potential for future growth.
They appear to be the market leader in airline booking software.
This, solely in my opinion, is going to become a heavily regulated (security) area related to compliance and compatibility with airlines and government agencies worldwide. With that, whoever is in first and offers the most proven and equipped to modify software, has the stronger weighting wrt to future sales and addons.
Hypothetically but quite likely, what if the US for example, refused dealings with airlines whose booking software they could not easily interrogate?
Closed at €3.00 today.

Secure Identity industry is another one I am watching closely with a view to investing.

ABC101

Andrea B. wrote: »

Yes, but that is not my consideration to retai. I believe there to be a high potential for future growth.
They appear to be the market leader in airline booking software.
This, solely in my opinion, is going to become a heavily regulated (security) area related to compliance and compatibility with airlines and government agencies worldwide. With that, whoever is in first and offers the most proven and equipped to modify software, has the stronger weighting wrt to future sales and addons.
Hypothetically but quite likely, what if the US for example, refused dealings with airlines whose booking software they could not easily interrogate?
Closed at €3.00 today.

Secure Identity industry is another one I am watching closely with a view to investing.

Whatever the fundamentals of Datalex... well done to all those who bought in years ago and kept the faith!!

Closed at 3 euro.... well it only seemed like last week it was at 1.58 euro!! Datalex is like a something on steroids, or hydrazine!!!

"De Kaiser" must be looking on in disbelief!!

You could very well be right about future growth, future trends in the ticket booking security industry et cetra. But the future is always uncertain.

However I am always suspicious of a stock which goes up quickly. Ballard Fuel Cell power systems... BLDP hit $5.7 in June 2014.... then just as quick it was dumped.... down to 1.36 now.

At some point holders of Datalex are going to dump.... who could possibly resist such stellar returns?

Thanks for the tip about Secure Identity Industry ... .must have a look!!

championc

Anyone any thought on Clipper CLG.L ?

Augeo

Augeo wrote: »

Days like this I am very happy that one can have their desired sale terms set up and waiting

Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc hit $97.35 earlier today, closed at $87.34 !!

Value at that $87.34 I think but I'll take the profit and run.

I'm after re investing the Valeant funds in Dalata Hotel Group PLC at €5.13 a share, I expect price to rise steadily through 2016 before plateauing, I'm hoping for a 30% increase from this one before getting out.

joe_five_pack

emerging markets might be due a recovery , there down every year for the past five or six

Andrea B.

They appear to be the market leader in airline booking software.
This, solely in my opinion, is going to become a heavily regulated (security) area related to compliance and compatibility with airlines and government agencies worldwide. With that, whoever is in first and offers the most proven and equipped to modify software, has the stronger weighting wrt to future sales and addons.
Hypothetically but quite likely, what if the US for example, refused dealings with airlines whose booking software they could not easily interrogate?

Looks like the demand in this industry is going to grow. I believe Datalex are nicely placed.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/dec/10/european-passenger-name-record-plan-committee-seven-year-battle

delux

I can't wait till the new year
My two from last January are:

iomart +50%
supergroup +100%

Did I win??

Augeo

Augeo wrote: »

..........

The final piece is anyone looking for a quick in and out (a week or so for a quick 10%)...
Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc $90.85 now from a low of $70 on Tuesday, I fully expect the latest rally to continue to over $105, the market really overreacted to Valeant's woes, their revenue stream is healthy and the issues aren't related to product quality etc. I'm on these as they came down, not as low as $70 unfortunately but will be getting out at just under the $100 mark.

Hit $115 yesterday

RobertKK

RobertKK wrote: »

Start of year prices:
Original picks
Gern $3.25, up 3 cents.
Genfit €37.68, up 93 cent.
Macrogenics $35.07, up $5.32.
New years day picks.
Avalanche biotechnologies $54.00
Stemline Therapeutics $17.06

I did not hold these all year which is a good thing for some of them....

For the 12 months if bought and held, (possible highest gain in brackets if bought at start of year and sold at highest price)
GERN +49.4% (+63%)
GNFT -11% (+87.5%)
MGNX -12.9% (+13.8%)
AAVL -80.4% (+15.7)
STML -60.1% (+11%)

ABC101

RobertKK wrote: »

I did not hold these all year which is a good thing for some of them....

For the 12 months if bought and held, (possible highest gain in brackets if bought at start of year and sold at highest price)
GERN +49.4% (+63%)
GNFT -11% (+87.5%)
MGNX -12.9% (+13.8%)
AAVL -80.4% (+15.7)
STML -60.1% (+11%)

That's why it's important to diversify! You can be down on some but if you are up on others then it's not too bad!

Wishing everybody de best for 2015!

ballyharpat

no, I will not post mine, I have invested about 60k in oil in the last 12 months, overall, I am down about 20%

ABC101

ballyharpat wrote: »

no, I will not post mine, I have invested about 60k in oil in the last 12 months, overall, I am down about 20%

Not too bad!!

If you invested in blue chips Shell, Exxon etc they will make a come back!

Just give it time!

Happy New Year All

lucky john

where does the time go? can't believe another year has gone by so fast.

anyway, not a bad year I suppose..

BOI.. 33c 34c +.03% very disappointing.
SKG 18.11 23.54 +30% down from highs and a safe bet for more gains.
Green R. 1.31 1.59 +41% happy to exit now.

ballyharpat

Thanks,
Yeah, I am positive it will come back, I'm in it for the 3-5 year term, I invested in OIL and USO, some in SSL as well, SSL pays a great dividend…..I'll be biding my time and putting more in as it accumulates…..

ABC101 wrote: »

Not too bad!!

If you invested in blue chips Shell, Exxon etc they will make a come back!

Just give it time!

Happy New Year All

ABC101

Anybody see Vestas wind systems SP ?

On the verge of bankruptcy in 2012.. Down to 24 Kroner....now up to 410!!

Crazy stuff!

Cute Hoor

delux wrote: »

I'll pick two from the UK market,
Supergroup (SGP.L)
Iomart (IOM.L)

I will be watching your 2016 picks closely.
Well done!!!

Andrea B.

ABC101 wrote: »

Whatever the fundamentals of Datalex... well done to all those who bought in years ago and kept the faith!!

Closed at 3 euro.... well it only seemed like last week it was at 1.58 euro!! Datalex is like a something on steroids, or hydrazine!!!

"De Kaiser" must be looking on in disbelief!!

You could very well be right about future growth, future trends in the ticket booking security industry et cetra. But the future is always uncertain.

However I am always suspicious of a stock which goes up quickly. Ballard Fuel Cell power systems... BLDP hit $5.7 in June 2014.... then just as quick it was dumped.... down to 1.36 now.

At some point holders of Datalex are going to dump.... who could possibly resist such stellar returns?

Thanks for the tip about Secure Identity Industry ... .must have a look!!

....or they could go in to a joint job with IBM and go to 3.50.......☺

ballyharpat

I am happy to say, when I last posted here in December, I was down about 20%, I put in more money and at one time was down +-50%, I was able to get my hands on more cash and put that in, but the cheapest I got Oil at was at$35 per barrel, but here we are just over 5 months later an I am back in black, buy a nice 10+%…..

euroboom13

ballyharpat wrote: »

I am happy to say, when I last posted here in December, I was down about 20%, I put in more money and at one time was down +-50%, I was able to get my hands on more cash and put that in, but the cheapest I got Oil at was at$35 per barrel, but here we are just over 5 months later an I am back in black, buy a nice 10+%…..

Not a recommended strategy but with oil you were never going to be wiped out if you could put enough in. welldone (tried that with stock and I am still feeding it..lol)

ftse100

Augeo wrote: »

Hit $115 yesterday

Hope you guys didn't hold onto $VRX :rolleyes:

ftse100

ftse100 wrote: »

Hope you guys didn't hold onto $VRX :rolleyes:

Thank you for your concern, I'm not at all sure what I did to warrant:rolleyes: from you but I'll play along............ the answer was there for you old boy

Augeo wrote: »

...............

The final piece is anyone looking for a quick in and out (a week or so for a quick 10%)...
Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc $90.85 now from a low of $70 on Tuesday, I fully expect the latest rally to continue to over $105, the market really overreacted to Valeant's woes, their revenue stream is healthy and the issues aren't related to product quality etc. I'm on these as they came down, not as low as $70 unfortunately but will be getting out at just under the $100 mark.

Augeo wrote: »

Days like this I am very happy that one can have their desired sale terms set up and waiting

Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc hit $97.35 earlier today, closed at $87.34 !!

Value at that $87.34 I think but I'll take the profit and run.

I've bought and sold them again since, for more profit, FYI

Francie Barrett

Reckon VRX is value now?

Francie Barrett

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Reckon VRX is value now?

No idea to be honest, I bought in March at the price it is now $26 ish and sold shortly afterwards, I didn't expect lows of $20 ish to be seen over the following months. What's happened in 2016 I obviously didn't expect.

It's a coin toss imo, I couldn't offer any real opinion, I'm not following the price anymore

Gun to head I couldn't imagine anyone buying today at $26.60 not to see a 10% yield before year end but there is the $/€ risk too however slight. I wouldn't expect recovery to $70 or anywhere near it over the coming years though.

ftse100

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Reckon VRX is value now?

It really is hard to know. Morgan Stanley upgraded VRX Price target to $42 from $33 and from neutral weight to overweight. They have a massive amount of debt, it is manageable if revenues continue to stay strong. A lot going on with massive volatility. It is one to keep an eye on though.

Augeo

Augeo wrote: »

.........

Gun to head I couldn't imagine anyone buying today at $26.60 not to see a 10% yield before year end.......

Hit $31 the following day :cool:

muck_master

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Reckon VRX is value now?

going to zero

ftse100

muck_master wrote: »

going to zero

Why do you think that?

ballyharpat

Hope ye don't mind me reviving old threads, but yeeehaaaaaa Oil has been very good to me

Cute Hoor

Fascinating reading back over the topic