General Election 2016

eire4

Geuze wrote: »

Given that half the pop are recipients or beneficiaries of weekly welfare payments, I would not call these parties right-wing.

FG I would describe as maybe "centre-right".

Lab as "centre-left".

I would agree Labour probably center left. Fine Gael I would say solid right wing. But thats getting into fine tuning details. Certainly neither party is far left or far right. But Labour is certainly to the left and Fine Gael is certainly to the right.

Godge

We are now getting closer to the election and the polls will begin to take on a more realistic reflection of the way people are thinking about a new government.

For the current government, FG on 30% is a solid base going into the election campaign, getting that up to 35% is achievable if the economy continues to do well and the campaign works.

The problem is Labour, at 7% their vote is too low to guarantee any seats. They will get a handful but not much more at that level. To put it another way FG on 36% and Labour on 7% would get the coalition less seats than FG on 33% and Labour on 10%, even though the total percentage is the same, given the way our electoral system works (or doesn't work). Boosting Labour between now and the election should therefore be a priority for FG as well.

At a combined vote of 43% (with Labour on 10%), the outgoing coalition will be in striking distance of a majority. To ensure stable government, they will need help from outside, Greens, SD, Renua or Ross Alliance being the main possibilities. The others (AAA, PBP, SF) are too mad and unable to agree with each other to even give the possibility of a stable government.

If FG/Labour do not get up to this level, the only realistic alternatives are FG/FF and FF/SF. The second of these is the only grouping that can credibly put itself forward as an alternative government, but FF won't want to associate itself with the transfer-toxic SF brand (not even the AAA could stomach it). This lack of alternative may work in the current government's favour in the last week of the election campaign. One of the reasons FF remained in government for so long between 1930 and 1973 was the failure of two inter-party governments with disparate ideologies to provide stable government. We could see a return to that scenario if FG acquire a charasmatic leader (Varadkar?) after Enda. Not a healthy place for a democracy but the onus is on the opposition to demonstrate that they can provide an alternative.

In the meantime I will be voting Green No. 1 in the hope they will be the third leg in a new government (unless something happens in the campaign or manifestos to change my mind).

Keepan Eye

marienbad wrote: »

Do people really believe this stuff ? As for 1916 you may have a point there but not for the reasons you think , do you think they would have been happy with closing the Vatican embassy , SSM referendum , repealing the 8th ?

Not sure what you meant by " Do people really believe this Stuff".
Anyhow;
As regards closing the Vatican Embassy....well ,the 1916-22 IRA were not flavour of the month with the Political R.C. Church. Before battle they got absolution from Franciscans and Order Priests. OR Protestant IRA members such as the Shields brothers of Clontarf probably had their own way of preparing for a fight that might kill them. One of the brothers changed his name to BARRY FITZGERALD, and starred alongside Bing Crosbie in " Going my Way". Funnily enough he played a Catholic priest in that famous movie.
His real name was William Shields and his brother Arthur was also a famous Abbey Actor. Both out in 1916. So I dont think the Vatican was on their mind. Post Independence government played footsie with the Political Church. They were a powerful lobby.
As regards the referendum on Gay Marriage = historic Conventional Marriage; I'd say they would conclude no one should be alienated but that what we now could call Historic conventional Marriage had a special place as the Ideal to aspire to basically as it is the way Human Kind reproduces itself scientifically. But of course we all frequently fall short in our endeavours despite our Lofy Ideals and so we are where we are. But we can still aim for perfection even though we know we never reach it.
On the repeal of 8th amendment they would wait for a more acceptable alternative that guaranteed the right of All beings before abandoning it to a free for all.
Only my thoughts and open to persuasion. And to all readers, Dont shooot me for that but convince me by gentle debate.

Fr Tod Umptious

RTE repoort suggesting that the election will be called on Tuesday with polling day 26th or so I guess.

I suppose what is the point in waiting around and dragging things out.


http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/2016/0130/764133-coalition-election-date/

fin12

They are complete assholes if they put it on any other day than a Friday, plenty of people won't be able to vote if it's not a Friday, that government are pure sneaks........


I heard they want to put it on a Thursday because of some rugby match but f*ck all the students and people who work away from home during the week.......

nice_guy80

Well done on the reform of politics Enda!!! you only had, oh 5 years!


Voting should be on a Saturday

nice_guy80

Well done on the reform of politics Enda!!! you only had, oh 5 years!


Voting should be on a Saturday

eire4

nice_guy80 wrote: »

Well done on the reform of politics Enda!!! you only had, oh 5 years!


Voting should be on a Saturday

Or maybe make election day a national holiday.

Blue Magic

What day is the election on people? As in what is the strong speculation?

poppers

What would happen if Michael D dropped dead today would we have to elect a president before enda could disolve the dail.

Chips Lovell

poppers wrote: »

What would happen if Michael D dropped dead today would we have to elect a president before enda could disolve the dail.

It looks like the role would be filled by the Presidential Commission:

In a vacancy or where the President is unavailable, the duties and functions of the office are carried out by a Presidential Commission, consisting of the Chief Justice, the Ceann Comhairle (speaker) of the Dáil, and the Cathaoirleach (chairperson) of the Seanad.

realitykeeper

I predict:
1) A FF/FG coalition.
2) Michael Martin will resign as leader of FF because he had ruled out a coalition with FG so his position will become untenable.

Kunkka

3 way FG, Renua and the Social Democrats. To collapse within 2 years due to a SD objection.

weisses

I hope the 2 parties in power will get another term

fin12

yay!!!!!! its FRIDAY 26TH FEBRUARY...

Coat22

Did nobody find the timing of the general election on the weekend Ireland are away to England a bit odd from a FG point of view?

I'm going to stereotype here but I would have thought a good majority of the travelling support would have been FG voters?

oscarBravo

Coat22 wrote: »

Did nobody find the timing of the general election on the weekend Ireland are away to England a bit odd from a FG point of view?

I'm going to stereotype here but I would have thought a good majority of the travelling support would have been FG voters?

The match is on Saturday evening. Polling will probably open at 7am on Friday.

Anyway, I don't think any party has a monopoly on rugby supporters; it's become a very popular sport.

BoJack Horseman

Coat22 wrote: »

Did nobody find the timing of the general election on the weekend Ireland are away to England a bit odd from a FG point of view??

Nearly 2.5 million votes will be cast.
The IRFU allocation is about 8,000..
Of which some will be purchased by IRFU supporters club members living in the UK.
The match is on Saturday evening, I had a look & there are 17 flights leaving Ireland for London with ample time for kick-off, I assume many fans would prefer to go out same day..
Then when you factor out those who are not registered, then those who don't vote anyway....

You are left with a statistical rounding error.

Kunkka

What's the bets we wont receive any water bills before the election?

NUTLEY BOY

My Election 2016 wish list - highly speculative and entirely unrealistic :rolleyes:.

1. A bit of maturity.

I am fed up with the "I couldn't be bothered voting" brigade. I have heard some of them on the airwaves already declaring an intention not to vote even though the nominations date has not yet passed.

I think that this election is almost likely to be the most dangerous one yet as if we don't get a decent and stable government out of it the consequences could be grave for a host of reasons. Whilst not advocating any voting preference I do hope that people will actually cast a vote.

2. A bit of maturity.

I feel embarrassed at times to admit to being Irish when I see the utterly pathetic, petty, unprofessional and utterly ignorant behaviour of TDs in our national parliament. These people are in so many ways the board of directors of Ireland Inc. Would you repose confidence in a board like that as a potential investor ? I wouldn't.

My optimistic but forlorn hope is that the next Dail will be excised of useless deputies and populated instead by people who understand that we can no longer afford their ineptitude in terms of how they conduct business and that there is a very serious need to get a grip on affairs.


Rant over. I am now going to walk the dog. I get more sense out of him than most canvassers and I trust him:D.

Coat22

Kunkka wrote: »

What's the bets we wont receive any water bills before the election?

Don't they all run at the end of each quarter? So The next one is due in April...and what with February being before April you're probably spot on with that one.,

Doubt we'll get Easter Eggs or Christmas cards before the election either

Kunkka

Coat22 wrote: »

Don't they all run at the end of each quarter? So The next one is due in April...and what with February being before April you're probably spot on with that one.,

Doubt we'll get Easter Eggs or Christmas cards before the election either

Aren't they a bit all over the place though? I paid my last one over 3 months ago anyway. I'm just saying it wouldn't help FG or Labour if people did get them, say a week before the election.

Coat22

Kunkka wrote: »

Aren't they a bit all over the place though? I paid my last one over 3 months ago anyway. I'm just saying it wouldn't help FG or Labour if people did get them, say a week before the election.

Maybe they are - I've received them in 2 properties over the last year and they were always based on quarter ends.

The Black Oil

https://twitter.com/ChristineBohan/status/697849706739802114

Have I stumbled into an alternate reality?

madalig12

Live in Letterkenny. Estate of 19 houses havent had a single candidate show up yet. Just had 10 shinners land in 2 northern reg cars and they didnt knock on one door, just popped leaflets in. Scared of all the fing and blinding ive been saving up?

wailim_2002

I am dis-illusioned with the state of the country. Govt debt increased from 43BN in 2007 to 201BN in 2016.... not sure i remember us taking €158BN from the troika, uk, sweden and denmark. ?!? Im pretty sure that figure will surprise many people but sadly it is actual verifyable fact.

The interest alone racks up at 307 euro per second and costs nearly 10bn per year.... a quarter of the state annual income.

Anyway I am determined to change things. Ive spent a couple of days setting up a FB campaign against the established parties. Every government since the foundation of the state has been a FF led or FG led government. I believe its time to change!

If you're interested or opinionated or just dis-illusioned like me please take 10 minutes out to read it.

https://m.facebook.com/RockIrishPolitics/

Zubeneschamali

wailim_2002 wrote: »

Every government since the foundation of the state has been a FF led or FG led government.

So how much of that debt was racked up under FG, and how much under FF, by your figures?

AndyBoBandy

Apologies if already mentioned,

But has anyone pointed out the irony of every political leaflet addressed to my/their home not having the Eircode on it! I'd of thought Fine Gael & Labour at least would have used it.

I know an post don't use it yet, but at least try and flog the dead horse!

wailim_2002

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

So how much of that debt was racked up under FG, and how much under FF, by your figures?

If you mean just the figures then that can be roughly worked out using the split point as 2011 and help from:

http://www.ntma.ie/business-areas/funding-and-debt-management/debt-profile/historical-debt/

So it rose from 43 to 144.2 at end 2010. Most or all of the rest from 2011 on. So swing your compass either way....

But if you mean which of those is responsible for using or creating policies that facilitated this to happen then I cant help. I think both have had their chances and both failed.

Compare Ireland with Norway or Singapore. Both have contrasting systems that just work. We have neither of those systems and none of our politicians can make anything work. You name it... from HSE to Irish Rail to Passport Express... nothing here works as it should and we take it!

If 15% flat rate tax and 3% GST (VAT) can work for Singapore and its population grows from 4M to 7.5M since 1997 and it has x4 our GDP then why is everyone afraid of completely overhauling our tax system?