2015 Predictions

Preset No.3

Wasn't it the old Continental airlines that first explored the usage of the 752 for TA ops? Then everyone else followed suit. I think that ACL/Aer Lingus were quite lucky to get their hands on what they did. We really need someone who work in the leasing business to tell us the reality of available 752's.

owenc

Probably 22 million for Dublin and another set of new transatlantic routes, alongside a further Emirates flight. There seems to be a new transatlantic route every few months, I wonder how they can continue to expand at the rate that they are going.

I don't think they can keep doing this, with the population there is a limit.

owenc

man98 wrote: »

I'd say
-WestJet will announce an expansion if services for 2016,
-WOW air will up theirs too 4/5 weekly,
-we'll see an Aer Lingus A320NEO order,
-CityJet CS100 order,
-perhaps an expansion for Waterford (not sure where)
-and a JetBlue A321NEO-LR order (and perhaps Cork - New York).
-Wouldn't be overly surprised if Shannon/ Knock - Amsterdam flights were announced with Ryanair, probably Dublin too.
-Helsinki flights might be increased.
-CityJet may increase their presence in Ireland,
-maybe there'll be a Belfast TATL service, more likely if APD is reduced or abolished.

1. I am waiting on them launching Belfast perhaps. I sometimes wonder if they could possibly make that service year round but then with the climate etc I am not sure.. I think they are doing it the right way by adding weeks at a time. Perhaps they could upgrade the aircraft to a 737-800.
2. Already Virgin launched, I would like to see an improvement in numbers before another one is launched.

owenc

mayotom wrote: »

Absolutly, Westjet hasn´t exactly been a roaring success, 737´s were never built for TA, A cityjet order for CS100 would mean delivery in 2019 at the earliest, making the RJ´s more than 20 years old, so an increase in service in Ireland is a long way off unless its using VLM or Stobart.
Cork to JFK, no hope, to easy to access Shannon with its low operating costs for airlines,.
Waterford does not have a market for commercial operations, it will only have a future for GA and SAR unfortunately.
Ryanair Launched Amsterdam for its business travellers with higher than normal fares, I cant see them getting many of these passengers in the west of Ireland.
JetBlue already have an order for 60 A320/1neo, not really going to be coming to an airport near you

Its a 2,000 mile route.:roll eyes:

How many people are going to get this into their heads.

Tenger

owenc wrote: »

Its a 2,000 mile route.:roll eyes:

How many people are going to get this into their heads.

Not sure why you dislike this statement as its true, they were never designed for T/A....because in the 1960/1970's only 4 engine-ed widebodies operated longhaul routes.

However the upgrade of the B737 design into the modern NG (and forthcoming MAX) models has allowed an aircraft to operate routes that it was not designed for.

Higher fuel costs, increased efficiency, improved range, ETOPS and changes to how air travel are viewed by the public have changed the industry from when the B737 was designed, and to a lesser extent since the B757 was designed.

owenc

Yes you should go on airliners.net and you will see lots. Most people have terrible geography in terms of distance..

Most hear Canada and think that it is far.

man98

I doubt there'll be any WestJet announcement for TATL from BFS. The only realistic service anyone could hope for is perhaps a daily United flight, possibly Delta. Then again, there's a lack of suitable 757s as explained above.

JCX BXC

man98 wrote: »

I doubt there'll be any WestJet announcement for TATL from BFS. The only realistic service anyone could hope for is perhaps a daily United flight, possibly Delta. Then again, there's a lack of suitable 757s as explained above.

There is already a daily united flight.......

owenc

man98 wrote: »

I doubt there'll be any WestJet announcement for TATL from BFS. The only realistic service anyone could hope for is perhaps a daily United flight, possibly Delta. Then again, there's a lack of suitable 757s as explained above.

Um???
http://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/UAL76

Yeah :rolleyes:
As for Westjet, I am not sure I think they may announce it eventually but not anytime soon. Apparently there have been ongoing discussions according to other forums.

man98

Just thought I'd say, WestJet will be flying Glasgow - Halifax with 737s, and I have seen A319s (similar enough range) flying BOS - LTN. I think we are going to see WestJet's expansion into TATL markets, perhaps further into Britain. Another prediction of mine for an announcement on that next year...

NewSigGuy

owenc wrote: »

No thats standard miles.

Fair Cop.. Doesn't change my opinion though, the Air miles are significantly more into the prevailing winds..

Jack1985

owenc wrote: »

Um. No there are much longer flights, you are adding to much.

I have yet to see you add anything beneficial on boards.ie. All you seem to be able to do is stir the pot for people to react. If you have nothing to add, don't - You are seriously infuriating.

Bo91

Anyone know why european airlines such as KLM ,Air France and TAP don't fly here ?

Tenger

Bo91 wrote: »

Anyone know why european airlines such as KLM ,Air France and TAP don't fly here ?

Cut throat competition and cheaper overall costs from FR and EI in their home market.

owenc

Apparently continential airlines evaluated it

Tenger

owenc wrote: »

Well I am just showing you that it can work if airlines want it to work.....

Err....no. A route will not just 'work if airlines want it to work" Load factors, profit margins, operational disruption among others are a factor in whether a route works or not. Wishful thinking is not a factor. Yes, Westjet did well over the summer in terms of loadfactors, however we do not know what their profit margin was.....if they decide there is more profit in that aircraft operating 2 short flights per day rather than a single T/A, then this is the option they will take. Sometimes profitable routes are pulled by the airline in favour of a more profitable option.

Preset No.3

Once again owenc has managed to steer so far away from the thread title and descend into another argument.

Tenger, Lord Lucan. Can I have my thread deleted please as this is a farce and Im really pissed off with this crap all the time. :mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad:

EICVD

Jack1985 wrote: »

I have yet to see you add anything beneficial on boards.ie. All you seem to be able to do is stir the pot for people to react. If you have nothing to add, don't - You are seriously infuriating.

That's exactly what he does on airliners.net too

owenc

Forgot to mention apparently Belfast to Copenhagan is starting. Can see Easyjet launching a few more routes.. They expand alot at Belfast.

aviator7

Ok so back to predictions!

I can see aerlingus taking on a 9th (leased) a330 if they can get their hands on one. Another transatlantic route will be announced. Would love to see them go somewhere a little different Asia, South America etc but can't see it happening just yet.

I expect the 757's in Dubin becoming more integrated. More of a mixture of the 757's and a330's on Toronto, New York, Boston and Washington.

I see aerlingus having a long haul fleet shortage, so I think we will see most of their current fleet for a long time, even as the a350's start to arrive.

Wouldn't suprise me to see them operating a couple of the a330's on a wet lease for another carrier in the future (a more permanent version of the current novair lease). Their operating costs seem to be tiny in comparison to other long haul operators.

Stobart: an expansion of cityjet services with a new route or two. I think further expansion through aerlingus regional is a given.

I'm gonna throw in a wild card here: I think they will order regional jets, maybe to fly under the aerlingus name. It's gonna be another great year for stobart.

Ryanair will do Dublin - Russia. The purchase will go through of Cyprus air, seems like Ryanair is dying to get another brand to run along side their current business model. I'd expect another great year for Ryanair as per usual.

I can't see anything overly interesting happening at cityjet as far as the public eye is concerned. I see a year of internal cost cutting and restructuring.

I expect flybe will fail on the London city route, and pull out as a previous poster mentioned.

I think the Irish airlines will do great in 2015, it looks like we are really showing the world how to run airlines well. The dropping fuel prices will make it one of the best years in a long time. Even for us passengers (lower fares hoefully!)

LXFlyer

Preset No.3 wrote: »

Once again owenc has managed to steer so far away from the thread title and descend into another argument.

Tenger, Lord Lucan. Can I have my thread deleted please as this is a farce and Im really pissed off with this crap all the time. :mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad:

I'd offer one piece of advice - if someone does drive you mad, simply put that person on your ignore list.


That way you don't have to read their posts anymore.


I find it works quite well (except when people quote them!).

Preset No.3

lxflyer wrote: »

I'd offer one piece of advice - if someone does drive you mad, simply put that person on your ignore list.


That way you don't have to read their posts anymore.


I find it works quite well (except when people quote them!).

Honestly, I don't feel that I should have to. The title of the thread that I started was very simple. There was no need for it to desend into chaos as it always seems to do when one or two people are involved.

I like this forum. I spend a lot of time here and Pprune. Members here are a decent enough sort. Debate is welcome but debate it on another thread and not ruin this one with even more rants about Belfast.

Tenger

This thread has veered away from predictions into arguments over B737 capabilities, route planning, EK crew ops, abd city break advice.

I started to delete posts associated with the B737 debate commenced by owenc and found lots of other of topic posts.

So lets keep this to predictions and counter predication. Any debate on airline operations/aircraft capabilites can be in a new thread.

NewSigGuy

Predictions:

EI order A330NEO and A321NEO, Return of Business Class on some European Sectors.
Some form of Buyout or Amalgamation with IAG.. BA has not served the UK regional airports well, and they do not have the slots available in LHR to provide connector services to that Hub so EI under the IAG Brand may fill that void and provide those services thru DUB.
Current tie-up with Stobart expanded to feed the Mini-Hub.
EI joins Oneworld.

I can't see WX survive the year, even with lower oil prices the Business Model is defunct and the equipment has then against the ropes. I see FlyBe and BA Citflyer Battling it out in LCY adding to WX's troubles.

FR continued expansion at all Irish Airports, and continued expansion into main hub airports in Europe.
The Closure of an Irish regional airport or two as they cannot make services viable.

Preset No.3

Is there a general belief that WX will not see the end of 2015?

Preset No.3

Preset No.3 wrote: »

Is there a general belief that WX will not see the end of 2015?

Not in its current form no, current owners will flip their purchase in 2015 and try and make money.

man98

I'm confident WX will make it through. Even with reduced services. Don't the new owners want to merge them to form a new carrier? I see that being feasible.

smurfjed

Ryanair will do Dublin - Russia.

Would love to see it happen, but i would think that they will wait for the Russian economy to improve first.

The purchase will go through of Cyprus air

The problem is great threads like this is that people post thoughts like this that deserve discussion, is it worth opening a new thread to ask what are the benefits of Ryanair buying Cyprus Air?

I like WX and hope that they do survive, but with the AF/KL group allowing Transavia to start Orly - Dublin services, it really will make things harder to them on this route. With the introduction of 2 other operators between Dublin - London City, the fares are going to drop with a direct impact on the economics.

Does anyone see signs of a fleet replacement for WX?

donvito99

O'Leary is apparently totally against going to or even flying over Russia, at least that's what I've been told.

Crumbs868

I can't see too many russian routes being anounced. It was always a pita to get a visa (book russian hotels for all nights in which you are in Russia, get a letter from hotel inviting you to Russia, go to russian embassy (during opening hours) with a file of paperwork and passport, return to embassy in 1 week to collect passport).

The above has been complicated even further by Russias reaction to western sanctions by requesting all applicants attend the embassy to give their fingerprints. At least in the past if a few people were going one of you could do the dropping off and collecting but now everyone will have to go.

Id imagine effecienies for an aicraft flying to Russia are atrocious

jaymcg91

smurfjed wrote: »

Would love to see it happen, but i would think that they will wait for the Russian economy to improve first.

The problem is great threads like this is that people post thoughts like this that deserve discussion, is it worth opening a new thread to ask what are the benefits of Ryanair buying Cyprus Air?

I read somewhere that Cyprus Air has valuable licenses to fly over the Middle East that Ryanair would like (Ryanair could fly to Tel Aviv etc then).

I don't know how true or how valuable that is but that's what i read.

L1011

jaymcg91 wrote: »

I read somewhere that Cyprus Air has valuable licenses to fly over the Middle East that Ryanair would like (Ryanair could fly to Tel Aviv etc then).

I don't know how true or how valuable that is but that's what i read.

They've a Cypriot AOC and lots of legacy traffic rights - but to Larnaca. Won't show them to fly from other countries to TLV.

I suspect they could get DUB-TLV easily if they wanted, on their existing AOC. Does anyone know if they kept the Buzz AOC alive?

chrysagon

O LEARY would fly over the Ukraine if he thought he would make money!!

Jack1985

chrysagon wrote: »

O LEARY would fly over the Ukraine if he thought he would make money!!

Highly doubt it. Safety and low fares were always his winning formula.

chrysagon

were the pilots not talking about scrimping on fuel in the last yr?

donvito99

chrysagon wrote: »

were the pilots not talking about scrimping on fuel in the last yr?

"Scrimping" is how alarmists would put it.

chrysagon

donvito99 wrote: »

"Scrimping" is how alarmists would put it.

Thats how the media sell papers!

Wicklowleaid

Ryanair to launch Dublin to Ponta Delgada in the Azores, they have launched this destination from Stansted in 2015

JCX BXC

Wicklowleaid wrote: »

Ryanair to launch Dublin to Ponta Delgada in the Azores, they have launched this destination from Stansted in 2015

Would their be a market? Its once weekly from stansted, which is the one of the 2 only routes from the UK-Ponta Delgada. I doubt that very many people would travel from DUB-PDL considering that Ireland is several times smaller than the Uk. Just my opinion. With FR anything could happen.

Qatar Airways just announced Amsterdam so hopefully Dublin announcement soon.

owenc

Carnacalla wrote: »

Would their be a market? Its once weekly from stansted, which is the one of the 2 only routes from the UK-Ponta Delgada. I doubt that very many people would travel from DUB-PDL considering that Ireland is several times smaller than the Uk. Just my opinion. With FR anything could happen.

Yes of course, Dublin airport has more than 20 million passengers which Stansted does not have, it is also much closer to the azores than Stansted.

I think people underestimate Ireland sometimes, I really think Ryanair should be launching a route to Reykjavik. The Belfast route has started and is very successful so far.

JCX BXC

owenc wrote: »

Yes of course, Dublin airport has more than 20 million passengers which Stansted does not have, it is also much closer to the azores than Stansted.

I think people underestimate Ireland sometimes, I really think Ryanair should be launching a route to Reykjavik. The Belfast route has started and is very successful so far.

You really have to tie EVERYTHING to Belfast dont you?

Stansted has one market and almost as many passengers as Dublin which has every market in one airport. No long haul or flag carriers from stansted. How is it closer to the Azores? And if it is, its very marginal.

Ireland is by far not underestimated. For a country of 4 million people to have so many routes and airports.

owenc

Carnacalla wrote: »

You really have to tie EVERYTHING to Belfast dont you?

Stansted has one market and almost as many passengers as Dublin which has every market in one airport. No long haul or flag carriers from stansted. How is it closer to the Azores? And if it is, its very marginal.

Ireland is by far not underestimated. For a country of 4 million people to have so many routes and airports.

I'm sorry but WHAT was that DIG about. Belfast is my nearest major airport on the island of Ireland so I can discuss it if I want to.

Yes Dublin is 200 miles closer to Ponta Delgada over Stansted. Of course the population of the island is almost 7 million but through connections and so on a lot of new routes can be gained.

As for Stansted they have about 17 million passengers while Dublin is approaching 21 million this year.. I have recently been to Stansted and their operations have decreased on what they were in previous years.

Tenger

chrysagon wrote: »

O LEARY would fly over the Ukraine if he thought he would make money!!

We have already had quite a lot of mod activity on this thread. Warning for trollling with a comment like that.

owenc wrote: »

I'm sorry but WHAT was that DIG about. Belfast is my nearest major airport on the island of Ireland so I can discuss it if I want to........

Well you have a history for derailing threads. I have already spent an hour of my time last night deleting off topic posts that were 50% due to your debate on B737 capabilities.