Air Asia Flight missing..

THEIRISHMOB

So what is the theory about how the plane actually went down? stalled? fell out of the sky?

The image of the body in the water was stripped apart from underwear which would suggest that the body fell through the air from a long way up? which means that the plane had to have broken up?

How else could all the clothes get off the body?

smurfjed

From Emergency Airworthiness Directive (AD) 2014-25-52

... due to blocked AOA probes, the flight control laws order a continuous nose down pitch rate that, in a worst case scenario, cannot be stopped with backward sidestick inputs, even in the full backward position. If the Mach number increases during a nose down order, the AOA value of the Alpha Prot will continue to decrease. As a result, the flight control laws will
continue to order a nose down pitch rate, even if the speed is above minimum selectable speed, known as VLS.
This condition, if not corrected, could result in loss of control of the aeroplane....

This was issued by Airbus about two weeks ago.

smurfjed

Air Asia runway overrun in Philippines.... Things do have a habit of happening in threes....

FWVT

I've updated my analysis of this flight and the weather conditions here

http://irishweatheronline.wordpress.com/2014/12/29/indonesia-air-asia-8501-a-meteorological-analysis/

mr.anonymous

smurfjed wrote: »

This was issued by Airbus about two weeks ago.

I was going to mention that Emergency AD. I wonder if this is the same issue with a terrible outcome.

The AD follows an occurrence on a Lufthansa A321 over Spain.

Tenger

More deletion happening. We are not amused at this point

Chuck Aaron

Highflyer13 wrote: »

I think there should be more live data being sent to flight ops than there currently is anyway. MH 370 being a case in point. An aircraft shouldn't just dissapear in this day and age but I have my doubts about that whole situation which I wont get into.

I can see where you're coming from but this live data to Ops can put pilots on edge.

The lads turning up as you're walking off the flight deck about to give one a bo******g after a long day at the office doesn't fair well tbh.

smurfjed

can put pilots on edge

Why? Don't you use flight data monitoring systems ? The data from these systems can be dumped to a server on landing using either GSM or VHF technology. Aircraft and engine data is also transmitted inflight for performance monitoring purposes, but due to the transmission costs, this data is generally only sent once an hour or so.

There is a flight reported in Avherald where an A320 did a 4G landing, the crew departed again, the event was caught by the data monitoring system, needless to say, they had one hell of a bo*****ing once they landed again.

martinsvi

Highflyer13 wrote: »

I think there should be more live data being sent to flight ops than there currently is anyway. MH 370 being a case in point. An aircraft shouldn't just dissapear in this day and age but I have my doubts about that whole situation which I wont get into.

there already are systems in place, the problem is - these systems go offline one way or another. As in the case with AirAsia debris where reportedly found just 10km away from the last reported position, what more do you need?

As with MH370, there where multiple systems in place, all of which, except INMARSAT, whether failed or were disabled by someone on board. You can introduce as many gadgets as you like, they will not be protected from the same fate

martinsvi

latest:

*7 bodies found, all dressed
*weather is poor at the scene, battering winds and waves up to 3m in height forbid diving
*unconfirmed media reports: plane upside down and relatively intact

Grandeeod

Indo is reporting that a body had a lifejacket on.

PukkaStukka

martinsvi wrote: »

latest:

*7 bodies found, all dressed
*weather is poor at the scene, battering winds and waves up to 3m in height forbid diving
*unconfirmed media reports: plane upside down and relatively intact

If true, does this suggest that they tried to land / ditch it?

martinsvi

PukkaStukka wrote: »

If true, does this suggest that they tried to land / ditch it?

I'll wait for them to actually confirm where the wreckage is before believing in what state it is.. some media outlets are going back to wreckage found some 100 miles away from the last radar contact, rather than just 6, and that paints a whole different picture.

Life jacket on one of the passengers has been confirmed, so it's a completely different picture to what we had yesterday

irishgeo

martinsvi wrote: »

I'll wait for them to actually confirm where the wreckage is before believing in what state it is.. some media outlets are going back to wreckage found some 100 miles away from the last radar contact, rather than just 6, and that paints a whole different picture.

Life jacket on one of the passengers has been confirmed, so it's a completely different picture to what we had yesterday

If sonar is picking up the wreckage, surely the pingers for the black boxes should be able to be picked up by now.

PukkaStukka

irishgeo wrote: »

If sonar is picking up the wreckage, surely the pingers for the black boxes should be able to be picked up by now.

I'm open to correction on this but a typical sonar and a listener for detecting the pings are two different devices.

irishgeo

PukkaStukka wrote: »

I'm open to correction on this but a typical sonar and a listener for detecting the pings are two different devices.

i am aware of that but , i was suggesting that , now they know where it is, its time to bring in the black box pinger detection devices assuming of course the tail is in the same location as the main body.

gordongekko

What's the panic in recovering the black boxes. Surely the priority should be to recover the bodies and give them a decent burial and to give their families some peace.

highlydebased

gordongekko wrote: »

What's the panic in recovering the black boxes. Surely the priority should be to recover the bodies and give them a decent burial and to give their families some peace.

The battery on the locater beacon/pinger only lasts so long. I believe it's 30 days typically. If the black box has separated from the rest of the aircraft then locating it is a priority.

irishgeo

highlydebased wrote: »

The battery on the locater beacon/pinger only lasts so long. I believe it's 30 days typically. If the black box has separated from the rest of the aircraft then locating it is a priority.

exactly , its the only way it might stop the same thing happening again.

gordongekko

irishgeo wrote: »

exactly , its the only way it might stop the same thing happening again.

They located the black boxes from the air France crash two years later. Just get the bodies home this week and you still have plenty of time to locate the black box.

martinsvi

I suspect ELT ping detectors might not be in just about any rescue team's tool shed, maybe they need time to ship them in from States or Australia, who knows...

PukkaStukka

The crash site is believed to be relatively shallow waters no more than 50m deep. I don't think the listeners for the boxes will be needed in this instance.

martinsvi

PukkaStukka wrote: »

The crash site is believed to be relatively shallow waters no more than 50m deep. I don't think the listeners for the boxes will be needed in this instance.

why would you think that? it's pretty dark around 50m depth, I don't think anyone is in the mood for scavenger hunt plus we don't know if all the bits are there at the same place. You might have most of the fuselage resting in one place whilst some sections miles away, depending on what happened. Let's say if the tail section (where the CVRs and FDRs are located) came off sooner, it would explain disappearance from the secondary radar and lack of comms, but it would still fly some distance before hitting the sea

Bigcheeze

martinsvi wrote: »

latest:

*7 bodies found, all dressed
*weather is poor at the scene, battering winds and waves up to 3m in height forbid diving
*unconfirmed media reports: plane upside down and relatively intact

The one body shown on TV was not dressed apart from underwear.

Bigcheeze

PukkaStukka wrote: »

If true, does this suggest that they tried to land / ditch it?

Unlikely IMO. If it was a controlled ditch you'd have to think they'd have got a radio transmission out that they were ditching in order to trigger immediate rescue.

billie1b

I may be mistaken (usually I am) but the black boxes have battery to ping for a minimum of 30 days, they can last a couple/few months but the pings grow fainter and further apart

owenc

PukkaStukka wrote: »

The crash site is believed to be relatively shallow waters no more than 50m deep. I don't think the listeners for the boxes will be needed in this instance.

I'm pretty sure 70 feet translates to 20m.
Supriyadi said he saw what appeared to be more wreckage under the water, which was clear and a relatively shallow 20 to 30 meters (65 to 100 feet).

PukkaStukka

martinsvi wrote: »

why would you think that? it's pretty dark around 50m depth, I don't think anyone is in the mood for scavenger hunt plus we don't know if all the bits are there at the same place.

What he says below here ..... The point I'm making is that the boxes could well be found as part of the overall recovery without need for the listeners, particularly if the waters here are realtively shallow to the extent that submerged wreckage is visible from the surface.

owenc wrote: »

I'm pretty sure 70 feet translates to 20m.
Supriyadi said he saw what appeared to be more wreckage under the water, which was clear and a relatively shallow 20 to 30 meters (65 to 100 feet).

martinsvi

yet another proof that it's pointless at this point to argue about anything:

On Dec 31st 2014 the chairman of Indonesia's Search and Rescue Service stated in an evening press conference, that earlier reports about the fuselage having been located have been incorrect, the search is still ongoing, so far - referring to a report by CNN hitting global headlines - there are no sonar images of the fuselage as well. Correcting other media reports the chairman stressed that none of the bodies recovered so far was wearing a life vest. All valid information concerning QZ-8501 only and only comes from one source, namely the Search and Rescue Service which is currently in charge of the entire operation, the chairman stated with reference to the current information chaos.

source: avherald

Mountainsandh

gordongekko wrote: »

What's the panic in recovering the black boxes. Surely the priority should be to recover the bodies and give them a decent burial and to give their families some peace.

If it was a technical safety flaw that caused the crash, then it is critical that all Airbus 320s may be revised for example, maybe all 320s from Air Asia, if their specs and updates missed out on some safety recommendation.

I'm not sure if the 2 missions may be conflicting anyway ?
Whenever the ping detectors arrive, they may run both recovery missions (bodies and blackbox) simultaneously ? Or would that overcrowd the area with boats and people ? I presume the training is widely different for each job so manpower shouldn't be an issue.

mr.anonymous

Mountainsandh wrote: »

If it was a technical safety flaw that caused the crash, then it is critical that all Airbus 320s may be revised for example, maybe all 320s from Air Asia, if their specs and updates missed out on some safety recommendation.

I'm not sure if the 2 missions may be conflicting anyway ?
Whenever the ping detectors arrive, they may run both recovery missions (bodies and blackbox) simultaneously ? Or would that overcrowd the area with boats and people ? I presume the training is widely different for each job so manpower shouldn't be an issue.

I thought they could run simultaneously and independently. There's both a technical and criminal investigation running into the MH17 accident.

The fact that the fuselage hasn't been found and that there was not a pax with a life jacket on proves the point about the media made earlier on.

Tenger

gordongekko wrote: »

What's the panic in recovering the black boxes. Surely the priority should be to recover the bodies and give them a decent burial and to give their families some peace.

There's is no priority at the expense of anything else. The search teams will recover everything they come across as part of the search. Don't think that they will left bodies in the water in favour of the black boxes.
But as always questions are being asked and getting the black boxes is the only way to answer those questions.

A Malaysian friend, sent me this:
MH 370
MH 017
QZ8501

---

8888

Freaky or what?

geneva geneva4444

Deleted User wrote: »

A Malaysian friend, sent me this:
MH 370
MH 017
QZ8501

---

8888

Freaky or what?

Oh dear. Let's not go there please!!

Calina

[Deleted User] wrote: »

A Malaysian friend, sent me this:
MH 370
MH 017
QZ8501

---

8888

Freaky or what?

Not really and only works on selecting your flight numbers. Include the Air Algerie flight number which went down during the year and see then.

Peregrine

Deleted User wrote: »

A Malaysian friend, sent me this:
MH 370
MH 017
QZ8501

---

8888

Freaky or what?

Why just those three? Why not AH5017?

I guess the summation being 13905 just doesn't have the same effect..

There are a few more smaller accidents that we can use for that pointless exercise.

kippy

Deleted User wrote: »

A Malaysian friend, sent me this:
MH 370
MH 017
QZ8501

---

8888

Freaky or what?

And what about all the other flight numbers that crashed in the past year, why not add them up as well?

kippy

kippy wrote: »

And what about all the other flight numbers that crashed in the past year, why not add them up as well?

They are the only 3 in Asia and all have Malaysian affiliations. So it's understandable that Malaysians are highlighting it.

kippy

Deleted User wrote: »

They are the only 3 in Asia and all have Malaysian affiliations. So it's understandable that Malaysians are highlighting it.

It's pretty dumb to be fair.

owenc

[Deleted User] wrote: »

A Malaysian friend, sent me this:
MH 370
MH 017
QZ8501

---

8888

Freaky or what?

No!!!!

owenc

irishgeo wrote: »

exactly , its the only way it might stop the same thing happening again.

I don't know what the cause of the crash was but often it is pilot error and often the cause is panicing. Sometimes we can't do anything

NewSigGuy

owenc wrote: »

I don't know what the cause of the crash was but often it is pilot error and often the cause is panicing. Sometimes we can't do anything

Must resist!!! Must Resist!!

Means Of Escape

Tenger wrote: »

There's is no priority at the expense of anything else. The search teams will recover everything they come across as part of the search. Don't think that they will left bodies in the water in favour of the black boxes.
But as always questions are being asked and getting the black boxes is the only way to answer those questions.

Why there isn't a system that allows the black box to deploy and surface with a tracking system when a plane hits the water is beyond me .

eatmyshorts

Means Of Escape wrote: »

Why there isn't a system that allows the black box to deploy and surface with a tracking system when a plane hits the water is beyond me .

Because the travelling public only wants to pay 10 Euro for their ticket.

Means Of Escape

eatmyshorts wrote: »

Because the travelling public only wants to pay 10 Euro for their ticket.

On a 70 million euro aircraft

A Dub in Glasgo

eatmyshorts wrote: »

Because the travelling public only wants to pay 10 Euro for their ticket.

So what happens to the travelling public who pay substantially more that €10 for their ticket?

Irish Steve

Means Of Escape wrote: »

Why there isn't a system that allows the black box to deploy and surface with a tracking system when a plane hits the water is beyond me .

Part of the issue is that the recorders are placed in areas of the aircraft where the manufacturer thinks they have the best chance of remaining in one piece so that they can be both recovered and provide meaningful information, and part of it is that if it separates from the airframe, it may make it harder to subsequently find it.

I'd like to see a more comprehensive GPS based tracking system that provides a better monitoring of the position reports that can be sent from the aircraft, so that if an aircraft is lost, the information on the route it's flown, and the height, speed etc are being captured in real time, and can be downloaded if contact is lost, to reduce the size of the area to be searched.

2 recent examples, the Air Aisa that this thread is about, and the Malaysian flight earlier in 2014 are prime examples of the problems of finding "lost" aircraft. The Malaysian situation is more complex, as we now know that there were deliberate efforts made to obscure exactly where the aircraft was going, so for a tracking system to be viable, it has to be done in a way that it's not possible for it to be tampered with by someone with malicious intent.

In terms of costings, most of the hardware to provide this level of service is already in place, the biggest expense will be the data traffic handling service to capture and network the reports back to the people that need to know about them, and as this is going to need satellite links over the oceanic areas, it will be more expensive than something like a text messaging service, but in the scale of things, it shouldn't be a massive problem, and it would for sure make some aspects of search and rescue a lot simpler

owenc

eatmyshorts wrote: »

Because the travelling public only wants to pay 10 Euro for their ticket.

We expect that but we all know that it would be rediculous to expect this. I know the airlines would go bankrupt if they charged that price

FWVT

Regarding GPS tracking, I find it crazy that Google can track everyone with GPS enabled on their phone and display this information in the form of live up-to-the-minute traffic data on Google Maps, be it on a PC or on your phone. I find it extremely accurate in most cases.

Now, why can't aviation do something similar? It is such a technologically advanced industry in many ways, yet it's still so backward in others.

Peregrine

FWVT wrote: »

Regarding GPS tracking, I find it crazy that Google can track everyone with GPS enabled on their phone and display this information in the form of live up-to-the-minute traffic data on Google Maps, be it on a PC or on your phone. I find it extremely accurate in most cases.

Now, why can't aviation do something similar? It is such a technologically advanced industry in many ways, yet it's still so backward in others.

1 foot of water will make Google go away