Property Market 2015

sapper

Just wondering how any house hunters/sellers are finding the market now that the autumn season is kicking off?

In my neck of the woods (Lucan) there seems to be a marked shift into a buyers market but sellers still looking for punchy asking prices. Asking prices not coming down and therefore nothings happening at all.

Instead of lots of people at viewings there's the odd one or two. It seems common now for a house to be up for sale for weeks with no bids on it - a marked difference to 12 months ago.

I wasn't in the market back then but to me it seems like 2007/2008 again Or is that just wishful thinking? (I'm looking to buy).

Shedite27

sapper wrote: »

Instead of lots of people at viewings there's the odd one or two. It seems common now for a house to be up for sale for weeks with no bids on it - a marked difference to 12 months ago.

My third time househnting in the past few years (didn't buy last two times), and that's definitely the standout thing - much quieter viewings than this time last year

castle2012

sapper wrote: »

Just wondering how any house hunters/sellers are finding the market now that the autumn season is kicking off?

In my neck of the woods (Lucan) there seems to be a marked shift into a buyers market but sellers still looking for punchy asking prices. Asking prices not coming down and therefore nothings happening at all.

Instead of lots of people at viewings there's the odd one or two. It seems common now for a house to be up for sale for weeks with no bids on it - a marked difference to 12 months ago.

I wasn't in the market back then but to me it seems like 2007/2008 again Or is that just wishful thinking? (I'm looking to buy).

I think its stabilized, There is plenty of new houses been built to order off plans . This has taken the pressure off the 2nd hand stock . 2013/2014 there was no new property s been built . I think going forward there'll be small percentage house price growth. Anyway that's my taught s

alastair

sapper wrote: »

Just wondering how any house hunters/sellers are finding the market now that the autumn season is kicking off?

...

I wasn't in the market back then but to me it seems like 2007/2008 again Or is that just wishful thinking? (I'm looking to buy).

We've had our D1 house on the market for 3 weeks. Viewings weren't hugely busy, but respectable enough. Bids started in second week (4 bidders to date, with strong possibility of a 5th to come), and are currently about 4% below asking price. I'd be hopeful of making asking soon enough, possibly more? - so definitely not like 2007/2008 on that experience. How that relates to the market in Lucan I don't know - it could well be a different story.

leinsterdude

in fairness, if you look on daft, so many houses that are good condition, and decent areas, I mean not bad maybe not the very best, are all circa 220k, even way down the country, so the average house price has come up, hard to get a decent house in commuter belt of Dublin for under 200k.

bobboberson

sapper wrote: »

Just wondering how any house hunters/sellers are finding the market now that the autumn season is kicking off?

In my neck of the woods (Lucan) there seems to be a marked shift into a buyers market but sellers still looking for punchy asking prices. Asking prices not coming down and therefore nothings happening at all.

Instead of lots of people at viewings there's the odd one or two. It seems common now for a house to be up for sale for weeks with no bids on it - a marked difference to 12 months ago.

I wasn't in the market back then but to me it seems like 2007/2008 again Or is that just wishful thinking? (I'm looking to buy).

We just went sale agreed in lucan, some viewing were busy but most were not. We bid on 6 houses and 5 of those went over asking price these went between 6 to 25k over asking. However alot of the ones we didnt bid in are still one the market. I know in one case it seem to be the EA just didnt care and that put poeple off.

jay0109

Been to a few viewings in D6W, D14, D16 in the past few weeks.
Houses in walk-in condition with prices just below the €0.5m mark are getting big viewings. Deliberate pricing by the agents to attract attention.
Houses in need of work or those with hefty prices are seeing only a handful.

sapper

jay0109 wrote: »

Been to a few viewings in D6W, D14, D16 in the past few weeks.
Houses in walk-in condition with prices just below the €0.5m mark are getting big viewings. Deliberate pricing by the agents to attract attention.
Houses in need of work or those with hefty prices are seeing only a handful.

Actually its not in my area but this one
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/mandalay-lakelands-crescent-stillorgan-county-dublin/3277213

seemed to be in the "too good to be true" bracket. Asking was 575k - seemed ridiculously low for a architect-designed house in a desirable area

sapper

Its all subjective and area- and price bracket- senstive of course but would people say that houses that are reasonably priced, perhaps asking less than they would have last year, are still getting attention?

I would be surprised to hear if houses that are asking last years price + x% are getting viewings and bids. Around my way anyone who is selling and looking for last years prices is getting disappointed...

Archaeoliz

We're actively looking. I'd agree that well decorated houses in good condition are being snapped up, everything else is hanging around on the market.

IMHO vendors can't see that their house is dated and why it wouldn't be worth the same with avocado/pink bathroom suite which is a good as the day they put it in in 1980 than the one with a brand new bathroom put in 6 months ago and geo-thermal heating. On the flip side buyers are sticking to houses which don't have any obvious unknowns and the need to spend money on, in 'safe' traditionally 'good' areas. Very little risks are being taken by buyers.

We are looking at cosmetic fixer-uppers but are finding a real lack of realism from that part of the market. Also plagued by houses which "oh, we're not conducting viewings on that property at the moment". Sigh, then I really wish you'd take it off your website...

gaius c

The houses that are going fast are priced nice and low to get interest. Helps if they are in good nick too. The ones who think it's still 2014 are struggling and those are the houses stuck on my home for months.

joe_six_cans

this is only a short term minor slip back , the property market is going to become considerably stronger int he coming months and years , reasons are

immigrants returning from australia , australia is sure to enter recession due to the severe slowdown in china , these irish will return home with money in their pocket and need a place to live

refugee crisis , this will increase demand for accomodation

reduced interest rates , only a matter of time , rates are outrageous compared to other eurozone nations

low interest on bank deposits , the hunt for yield , stocks are not paying much in dividend yield due to high valuations

property is relatively cheap in ireland

fret_wimp2

joe_six_cans wrote: »

property is relatively cheap in ireland

Id like to see this statement backed up with factual data.

bidiots

joe_six_cans wrote: »

this is only a short term minor slip back , the property market is going to become considerably stronger int he coming months and years , reasons are

immigrants returning from australia , australia is sure to enter recession due to the severe slowdown in china , these irish will return home with money in their pocket and need a place to live

refugee crisis , this will increase demand for accomodation

reduced interest rates , only a matter of time , rates are outrageous compared to other eurozone nations

low interest on bank deposits , the hunt for yield , stocks are not paying much in dividend yield due to high valuations

property is relatively cheap in ireland

Spot the auctioneer! Buy now quick! where have I heard that before....

tharmor

joe_six_cans wrote:

immigrants returning from australia , australia is sure to enter recession due to the severe slowdown in china , these irish will return home with money in their pocket and need a place to live

Are you serious ? Australia is still doing better than Ireland I think...you have any data to support it ?

fret_wimp2

bidiots wrote: »

Spot the auctioneer! Buy now quick! where have I heard that before....

Or journalist for the Indo.

Cuddlesworth

They could go up, they could go down. Its obvious the best method of prediction is to use a magic 8 ball and hope for the best.

joe_six_cans

tharmor wrote: »

Are you serious ? Australia is still doing better than Ireland I think...you have any data to support it ?

china is slowing , australia is chinas quarry , its not a particulary well diversified economy , canada is more diversified an is offically in recession , australias mining mega boom is being viewed as a once in a century event

alastair

joe_six_cans wrote: »

china is slowing , australia is chinas quarry , its not a particulary well diversified economy , canada is more diversified an is offically in recession , australias mining mega boom is being viewed as a once in a century event

Plus Australia has got very expensive - cost of living wise.

athtrasna

Enough with the world economy discussion please. There's an economic forum if you want to discuss such things.

Thanks

Mod

joe_six_cans

bidiots wrote: »

Spot the auctioneer! Buy now quick! where have I heard that before....

not especially original , ive been trying to buy a property as an investment all year , the market is going from strength to strength , especially outside dublin , dublin raced ahead since 2012 and is now taking a short breather

i wish i had bought in 2012 , i stuck my money in equities instead which done ok but there is nearly no income from them

alastair

alastair wrote: »

We've had our D1 house on the market for 3 weeks. Viewings weren't hugely busy, but respectable enough. Bids started in second week (4 bidders to date, with strong possibility of a 5th to come), and are currently about 4% below asking price. I'd be hopeful of making asking soon enough, possibly more? - so definitely not like 2007/2008 on that experience.

Update - offer in about 2% above asking.

The_Conductor

joe_six_cans wrote: »

not especially original , ive been trying to buy a property as an investment all year , the market is going from strength to strength , especially outside dublin , dublin raced ahead since 2012 and is now taking a short breather

i wish i had bought in 2012 , i stuck my money in equities instead which done ok but there is nearly no income from them

Have you done your homework?
I've numerous neighbours all selling (in a Dublin suburb) at the moment- because, they can't make the finances work as investors.

There are numerous issues for investors in Irish property incl.

- max LTV now 70% (if you can get it)
- max mortgage interest deduction = 75%
- USC chargeable on gross rental income
- property tax not a deductible cost (yet anyway)
- no incentive to paydown mortgages (as you loose your mortgage interest)
- lenders increasingly unhappy to lend to BTL investors- other than at improbably low LTVs
- the only way to shield rental income- is by loading up on debt- a lesson the government seems to have not learnt- despite our bank bailouts

We have a new report out (OECD, Monday)- advising that prior to the general election the government should clear the decks and deal with the legacy debts of the crash- by whatever means necessary (its implicit that the OECD are strongly in favour of enacting new legislation to get non-performing or mortgages in arrears- off lenders books- and sold, at any price).

Could have, would have, should have- many people wish they had bought in the Dublin area in 2011-2012. Crystal ball gazing isn't the answer though- sitting down and working out the fundamentals and whether it makes sense in todays world, to put one's cash where one's mouth is- is key.

As it stands- purely from a regulatory perspective- it does not make sense to invest in property in this country- and despite prices being where they are- by and large- it also doesn't make sense to build. And so the merry go round goes round and round............

fret_wimp2

The_Conductor wrote: »

Have you done your homework?
I've numerous neighbours all selling (in a Dublin suburb) at the moment- because, they can't make the finances work as investors.

There are numerous issues for investors in Irish property incl.

- max LTV now 70% (if you can get it)
- max mortgage interest deduction = 75%
- USC chargeable on gross rental income
- property tax not a deductible cost (yet anyway)
- no incentive to paydown mortgages (as you loose your mortgage interest)
- lenders increasingly unhappy to lend to BTL investors- other than at improbably low LTVs
- the only way to shield rental income- is by loading up on debt- a lesson the government seems to have not learnt- despite our bank bailouts

We have a new report out (OECD, Monday)- advising that prior to the general election the government should clear the decks and deal with the legacy debts of the crash- by whatever means necessary (its implicit that the OECD are strongly in favour of enacting new legislation to get non-performing or mortgages in arrears- off lenders books- and sold, at any price).

Could have, would have, should have- many people wish they had bought in the Dublin area in 2011-2012. Crystal ball gazing isn't the answer though- sitting down and working out the fundamentals and whether it makes sense in todays world, to put one's cash where one's mouth is- is key.

As it stands- purely from a regulatory perspective- it does not make sense to invest in property in this country- and despite prices being where they are- by and large- it also doesn't make sense to build. And so the merry go round goes round and round............

Some of those are issues for sure but max LTV is not one of them. massive mortgages that required no display of discipline or saving ability to obtain are a huge factor in how so many ended up with overpriced houses they couldnt afford.

The_Conductor

fret_wimp2 wrote: »

Some of those are issues for sure but max LTV is not one of them. massive mortgages that required no display of discipline or saving ability to obtain are a huge factor in how so many ended up with overpriced houses they couldnt afford.

However- the flipside of that coin is that the main mechanism for prospective landlords to shield rental income from the taxman is by loading up any rental properties with as much debt as possible. There is also a perverse incentive not to repay principle on the loans- because the mortgage interest, which is 75% deductible as a cost- would dwindle, if the o/s principle on the loan falls.

So- we have a situation- where landlords are incentivised not to repay their mortgages- because if they do- they loose the tax benefit associated with having outstanding debt on the asset.

How perverse is that?

fret_wimp2

The_Conductor wrote: »

However- the flipside of that coin is that the main mechanism for prospective landlords to shield rental income from the taxman is by loading up any rental properties with as much debt as possible. There is also a perverse incentive not to repay principle on the loans- because the mortgage interest, which is 75% deductible as a cost- would dwindle, if the o/s principle on the loan falls.

So- we have a situation- where landlords are incentivised not to repay their mortgages- because if they do- they loose the tax benefit associated with having outstanding debt on the asset.

How perverse is that?

Ok, but thats a completely different issue, putting LTV restrictions on what people can borrow is still only a good thing.

The_Conductor

fret_wimp2 wrote: »

Ok, but thats a completely different issue, putting LTV restrictions on what people can borrow is still only a good thing.

I agree- however- there should be a level playing field.
The Irish psyche is still to own property at any cost.
Its almost a unique dogma globally- where renting is the norm.

There are a number of issues at the moment-

The tax treatment of landlords
The building costs- esp. labour costs, associated with the construction industry
The complete abdication of housing responsibilities from the public to the private sectors
The structure of assisted housing programmes- that encourage landlords not to subscribe to the schemes (think RAS etc)
The increasing proportion of NET income that tenants are having to pay towards their housing costs
PRTB issues- its not fit for purpose for either landlords or tenants
The 2004 Act- is structured in such a way to encourage periodic tenancies
The lack of a market for unfurnished accommodation in Ireland
The lack of an independent entity to lodge deposits with
The inadequacy of 1 month's rent as a deposit to cover any damage other than incidental in nature (3 months is standard on the continent)
etc etc etc

Is it any wonder tenants aspire to own rather than rent- and landlords are trying to get shot of property at any cost- as there is no financial benefit to remaining in the letting business........... Calling the Irish market dysfunctional- is myopic- its almost as though the cards are stacked against everyone- literally everyone- tenants, landlords, owners, buyers, sellers- its a market that benefits only the taxman, and occasionally bankers and other incidental parties- but certainly not owners, landlords or tenants............

gaius c

joe_six_cans wrote: »

low interest on bank deposits , the hunt for yield , stocks are not paying much in dividend yield due to high valuations

property is relatively cheap in ireland

You seen the net yields available to Irish landlords lately?

joe_six_cans

gaius c wrote: »

You seen the net yields available to Irish landlords lately?

yes and where i am now focused , they are higher than on any other asset investment , i am a cash buyer BTW , ive had my money in equities since 2010

outside dublin ( and to a lesser extent galway ) , property is still cheap in ireland and im not talking about one horse towns either

mel123

I see the whole 'people coming home from Australia' thing a lot.
Unless your coming home with the full amount to buy a house out straight, you still have a long road to go. I know someone who came home from Canada thinking ah sure, I have a big deposit ill go and buy a house. Nope. The banks are looking for you to be in a new permanent job for a year, and still want to see a saving structure.
I think people coming home from abroad buying up houses will be few and far between.