Property Market 2015

The_Conductor

MouseTail wrote: »

I thought there was increased heights in the free development zone?

4 stories subject to government approval of the SDZ status- which may grant additional 'reliefs' (unspecified). Examples of residential SDZs would include Adamstown and Clonburis in SDCC.

Villa05

alastair wrote:

Not quite. A pyramid scheme implies you're shafting someone lower down in the process. That's really not a part of the scenario I outlined.

For a pyramid scheme to be "successful" participants are conned into believing they are not shafting someone lower down, rather inviting them to participate in the same gains they have made.

The end result is you all pay more for the same product. There is a finite number of people that can participate and when this is reached the whole thing collapses.

alastair

Villa05 wrote: »

For a pyramid scheme to be "successful" participants are conned into believing they are not shafting someone lower down, rather inviting them to participate in the same gains they have made.

The end result is you all pay more for the same product. There is a finite number of people that can participate and when this is reached the whole thing collapses.

None of which applies to trading up property. The 'property ladder' is not the same process as a pyramid scheme.

Cuddlesworth

alastair wrote: »

None of which applies to trading up property. The 'property ladder' is not the same process as a pyramid scheme.

It depends on how you view it, I think you're both right.

If you say that a house was bought on a specific income, that income was exceeded and they were looking to either utilize a increased equity in the property through advanced payments, or use their new income level to get a larger mortgage then yes, it's not a pyramid scheme.

But most people here don't look at it that way. They see it as borrowing as much as possible, waiting 5 years and flipping it for double the price. Property here is viewed as a easy money scheme and for that to continue to exist, its reliant on first time buyers to continue to shovel cash into the market. Its why we are greeted once a month with soundbites from Politicians stating we need to fuel the market through FTB incentives.

matrim

The way I see it there are 2 variations on the property ladder

1. You buy a house / apartment with the intention of living there for the medium term ( 5 - 10 years ). It is bought with some scope for an increase in requirements but maybe not what you ultimately need. As your family needs grow you look to use the equity from that with maybe a small rise in prices to move to a bigger house to meet your needs.

2. You buy a house / apartment and look to flip it in 2 years for a large profit. You use that to get a bigger place and possibly do it again.

Without a boom / bust cycle there isn't really any problem with the first option. The other option for people who can't afforf the final place now is to get a fixer upper.

The second one is where it often went wrong with the boom. People took the short view that they could overextend for the small place that barely fit their needs now and hoped to flip it in the short term to move up the ladder.

gaius c

And this is why you need to do your homework before buying at auction. Or at least google the address and read the links on the first page.

Bit more background.

El_Dangeroso

El_Dangeroso wrote: »

Anecdote alert!

We had prev gone sale agreed on a house, but it turned out not to be due to other issues.

We're currently bidding on a house in a much better location that I thought would definitely reach asking. It's an ex-rental house so needs cosmetic stuff done but nothing onerous.

It's priced for a rental yield of about 4% so we put in a cheeky bid of 30K under asking, thinking and expecting to be soon outbid.

Tumbleweed.

The vendor has said they won't accept our offer so are leaving it on the market for another few weeks to see if any other interest can be drummed up, but given there has been several open viewing at this point, it's looking less likely.

A year ago we would have been in a bidding war by now, as I've seen it happen in the exact same estate.

Seems that the investors have exited the market for this type of property and the central bank rules are restricting the PPR side of things.

Is this the start of the climbdown?

Update: Well after sitting smugly on being top bidder 30K under asking for 2 weeks (Wondering if we shouldn't have bid lower). Two cash buyers (investors) appeared and a furious bidding war ensued. It's currently 20K over asking with no sign of slowing down, way more than I'd think it was worth.

So yeah, couldn't have gotten that more wrong!

Jaysus. That's quite a turnaround - but sadly familiar to us.

We went sale agreed in the summer after going through all the ups and downs of bidding and second-guessing on several houses.

Quite a few houses have dropped their prices in my area in recent weeks but some of those had really over-the-top asking prices. I do think the madness is cooling (although your anecdote suggests there are still a few lunatics out there!). If I could wait for a few years, I'm sure supply will come on eventually but we weren't prepared to hang on.

Several times we put in low offers and were the top bidder for ages, only for a late-in-the-day bidding war to erupt, leaving us behind. Very frustrating.

We were 'winning' the war (unchallenged) on the house we bought for weeks at 30k under the asking. After four open viewings we reckoned all interested parties would have had a good look at that stage.

Then a minor bidding spat broke out, taking it to 20k under asking but the other bidder bowed out at that stage. After that, more time passed and we were urging the agent to wrap it up - only for three bidders to enter the fray (they were real - I saw them at subsequent viewing), two of whom stayed the course until it was 10k over asking - which was us.

By the time we had 'won' the war it felt like we'd lost 40k. But maybe the low-ball offer was never very likely to win the day. I wouldn't be surprised if agents were ringing up potentially-interested buyers and investors telling them that there's a house going well under asking and they should take a look. (Yes, this whole experience can make a man paranoid!)

Anyway, there's an awful lot of money at stake and prices may well be slowing so hopefully the situation will settle down for those currently looking. But personally I'm fairly glad to be done with the whole thing! We haven't over-stretched ourselves but at some stage we gave up hoping for a major bargain.

Now it's on to picking paint colours and sofas - a change is as good as a rest

MarkAnthony

Don't count your chickens until you've moved them in! I was literally in the moving van when I heard we had a last minutes issue.

With that said, congratulations!

Thanks - sound advice!

We've already had a few hiccups with maps, bank paperwork, life assurance etc. Until I'm jingling the keys I'll keep the (Lidl) Champagne on ice..

Sam the Sham

We just went sale agreed on a Dublin house after 7 months of looking, 73 houses visited (that I could remember when drawing up a list), over 20 bid on.

We were in the under 350K bracket and I see very little signs of anything cooling. Any house that was halfway decent and most of the ones that weren't even halfway decent saw bidding wars, sometimes frantic ones. I've seen nothing--other than houses that were utterly derelict and way overpriced--go for under the asking. Everything went from 10 to 20% over asking, even where the asking seemed absurd.

And I've also been outbid by multiple cash buyers competing for the same property, several times.

El_Dangeroso

Deleted User wrote: »

Jaysus. That's quite a turnaround - but sadly familiar to us.

We went sale agreed in the summer after going through all the ups and downs of bidding and second-guessing on several houses.

Quite a few houses have dropped their prices in my area in recent weeks but some of those had really over-the-top asking prices. I do think the madness is cooling (although your anecdote suggests there are still a few lunatics out there!). If I could wait for a few years, I'm sure supply will come on eventually but we weren't prepared to hang on.

Several times we put in low offers and were the top bidder for ages, only for a late-in-the-day bidding war to erupt, leaving us behind. Very frustrating.

We were 'winning' the war (unchallenged) on the house we bought for weeks at 30k under the asking. After four open viewings we reckoned all interested parties would have had a good look at that stage.

Then a minor bidding spat broke out, taking it to 20k under asking but the other bidder bowed out at that stage. After that, more time passed and we were urging the agent to wrap it up - only for three bidders to enter the fray (they were real - I saw them at subsequent viewing), two of whom stayed the course until it was 10k over asking - which was us.

By the time we had 'won' the war it felt like we'd lost 40k. But maybe the low-ball offer was never very likely to win the day. I wouldn't be surprised if agents were ringing up potentially-interested buyers and investors telling them that there's a house going well under asking and they should take a look. (Yes, this whole experience can make a man paranoid!)

Anyway, there's an awful lot of money at stake and prices may well be slowing so hopefully the situation will settle down for those currently looking. But personally I'm fairly glad to be done with the whole thing! We haven't over-stretched ourselves but at some stage we gave up hoping for a major bargain.

Now it's on to picking paint colours and sofas - a change is as good as a rest

Thanks Ixelles, that's comforting to know someone had a similar experience to us. Like you, we're done waiting and just want to move on with our lives at this point! I was looking at kitchens last week

Oh well, onwards and upwards as they say!

MarkAnthony

Sam the Sham wrote: »

We just went sale agreed on a Dublin house after 7 months of looking, 73 houses visited (that I could remember when drawing up a list), over 20 bid on.

We were in the under 350K bracket and I see very little signs of anything cooling. Any house that was halfway decent and most of the ones that weren't even halfway decent saw bidding wars, sometimes frantic ones. I've seen nothing--other than houses that were utterly derelict and way overpriced--go for under the asking. Everything went from 10 to 20% over asking, even where the asking seemed absurd.

And I've also been outbid by multiple cash buyers competing for the same property, several times.

It's very localised IMHO. There is some great value to be had in Dublin, just not in the 'traditional' places to buy areas. My predictions of more people being forced into less desirable areas doesn't seem to be correct, people seem to be stretching themselves to stay in the more desirable areas.

I see houses in the 300k-400k selling fast if they are in good condition. Maybe doer-uppers that need an immediate cash injection are a bit slower to shift unless the price is low.

Up beyond 500k houses seem to sit for a lot longer lately. Maybe it's just that not much happened in the summer but places came to market in spring with ambitious prices between 500k-600k and they are either still there or have dropped their prices.

Maybe the second-time buyers are the ones worst hit?

Sam the Sham

MarkAnthony wrote: »

It's very localised IMHO. There is some great value to be had in Dublin, just not in the 'traditional' places to buy areas. My predictions of more people being forced into less desirable areas doesn't seem to be correct, people seem to be stretching themselves to stay in the more desirable areas.

I don't think you're right about that. The houses in question were in Crumlin, Inchicore, Kilmainham, Drimnagh, Rialto, Phibsboro, North Strand, Dublin 1, and Cabra. All had bidding wars and aren't in the so-called "desirable" areas but suited us fine. I saw nothing that resembled "value" over the last 7 months, even on fixer-uppers.

MarkAnthony

Sam the Sham wrote: »

I don't think you're right about that. The houses in question were in Crumlin, Inchicore, Kilmainham, Drimnagh, Rialto, Phibsboro, North Strand, Dublin 1, and Cabra. All had bidding wars and aren't in the so-called "desirable" areas but suited us fine. I saw nothing that resembled "value" over the last 7 months, even on fixer-uppers.

With the exception of North Strand all those areas have desirable parts. Even Fairview has become desirable due to it's proximity to the CC. People buying in North Strand are banking on it gentrifying. There are people trying that as far in as Summerhill.

If you look out towards D5 there are some fantastic bargains. D15 has some decent value although the houses aren't ideally built. Areas of D11 and 13 have some great value you just have to be canny of the area.

Specifically in D5 as thats where I ended up. 270K would get you a 3 bed semi 1200 sq ft walk in condition. 364K would have got you a 5 bed detached in August - walk in condition. You can have your pick of smaller terraces for sub 250K.

Piriz

MarkAnthony wrote: »

With the exception of North Strand all those areas have desirable parts. Even Fairview has become desirable due to it's proximity to the CC. People buying in North Strand are banking on it gentrifying. There are people trying that as far in as Summerhill.

If you look out towards D5 there are some fantastic bargains. D15 has some decent value although the houses aren't ideally built. Areas of D11 and 13 have some great value you just have to be canny of the area.

Specifically in D5 as thats where I ended up. 270K would get you a 3 bed semi 1200 sq ft walk in condition. 364K would have got you a 5 bed detached in August - walk in condition. You can have your pick of smaller terraces for sub 250K.

I disagree on northstrand i reckon u havnt seen the quality of some of the houses for sale there..

MarkAnthony

Piriz wrote: »

I disagree on northstrand i reckon u havnt seen the quality of some of the houses for sale there..

What I've seen has been overpriced IMO.

Some of the houses in D1 are amazing, it's amazing how poor these areas still are though.

sweetie

Piriz wrote: »

I disagree on northstrand i reckon u havnt seen the quality of some of the houses for sale there..

Indeed, like this

mel123

sweetie wrote: »

Indeed, like this

how much was this advertised and how much did it go sale agreed do you know?

gaius c

sweetie wrote: »

Indeed, like this

Interesting you posted that house. The owner popped up on the pin to hawk the house over there. Much merriment ensued.

Note the discussion later on planning permission.

So retention permission sought for ground floor and 1st floor extensions and attic conversion. And if permission is denied... ??

If something looks too good to be true, it usually is.

Cuddlesworth

sweetie wrote: »

Indeed, like this

Original house has really bad rising damp which is really difficult to fix. You can see it on the external walls and the damage on the internal walls in some of the pictures. Makes for a very damp cold house.

Sam the Sham

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Original house has really bad rising damp which is really difficult to fix. You can see it on the external walls and the damage on the internal walls in some of the pictures. Makes for a very damp cold house.

How on earth can you diagnose "really bad rising damp" from looking at tiny poor resolution photos on myhome?

Cuddlesworth

Sam the Sham wrote: »

How on earth can you diagnose "really bad rising damp" from looking at tiny poor resolution photos on myhome?

Because I spent a year of my life fixing it.

sarachryan

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Because I spent a year of my life fixing it.

:):)

Michael D Not Higgins

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Original house has really bad rising damp which is really difficult to fix. You can see it on the external walls and the damage on the internal walls in some of the pictures. Makes for a very damp cold house.

I think it looks pretty clear on the outside but which one of the interior photos shows damage?

Sam the Sham

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Because I spent a year of my life fixing it.

Is that it all it takes to claim expertise nowadays? I watch a lot of TV. I wonder if I'm qualified to fix one.

Anyway, every house in Dublin past a certain age either has rising damp to various degrees or has had it dealt with. It's merely another cost, like having to replace the roof, and can be factored in.

Cuddlesworth

Michael D Not Higgins wrote: »

I think it looks pretty clear on the outside but which one of the interior photos shows damage?

Internal brick walls for the most part are very well covered by furniture or shelving and the house looks like it has a fresh paint job. But you can see bad paint bubbling on the side of a internal fireplace as well as the obvious problem in the red brick outside. If you see it that badly on the outside wall, it's on every inside wall. It's not like they magically remembered to put down a DPC after the front wall.

The dark spots on the hardwood floors can be caused by mold/moisture ingress through nails that are attached to the wet joists that are going into the wall. Or by wood filler from damage after lifting them.

I have no doubt that if I went to that house in person I could show you a number of spots(like behind the ancient and useless radiators) that they can't repair for viewings.





But rule no1. If you see any outside wall that has clear signs of rising damp, avoid it.

Sam the Sham

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

The dark spots on the hardwood floors can be caused by mold/moisture ingress through nails that are attached to the wet joists that are going into the wall. Or by wood filler from damage after lifting them.

So, you think that this house has "really bad rising damp" and the sure sign of it is that these 100+ year old floor boards (they are the original floor boards) have dark spots?

I would think that if the "rising damp" were "really bad" the original floorboards would be long gone...

But I also am not the sort to speculate based on what could be digital noise in some very low-res pictures...

alastair

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

like behind the ancient and useless radiators

Why no love for cast iron rads? You can't tell from a photo if they're useless or not. It all depends on the state of their innards, so unless there's some x-ray plugin for photoshop, it'd just be a guess. I've had decent success with restored cast iron rads, and while they take a bit longer to get going, they retain heat longer than pressed steel / alu 'modern' rads. I'd also doubt they're original to this house, so could well be relatively 'new' jobbies.

Been collecting rads for a new gaff, so a little fixated on the subject at the moment. Sorry!