Property Market 2015

alastair

Villa05 wrote: »

You don't buy a house for 2015, you buy it for life

Indeed. And it's rather unlikely that anyone can go a lifetime without some economic ups and downs impacting on them. And yet people still buy homes.

alastair

Alter_Ego wrote: »

I don't see what's foolish about pointing out to a trend that house price increases are generally slowing down? Yes, they are still going up, but slower and slower.

The price increases aren't getting slower and slower. They're slower compared to last year's rapid increases, but August this year had a greater increase than July of this year, which had a greater increase than June of this year, which suggest current price increase acceleration, not slowdown. It's not a rapid increase (until August in any case), but it's not slowing.

Jaketherake

You'l' never be able to predict where house prices are going. They will go up and down over the years naturally, but all you can do is be ready for when they do one or the other. Or you could just ignore the ups and downs and get on with your life.

They will happen regardless and are impossible to foresee. Will the same people be posting next year about how prices will be going down so because all of the economic indicators say so?

Just out of interest how long have the people in the last few posts who mention economic indicators etc and house prices falling, been saying that the indicators have been pointing to a fall. One year, two years, three years ?

Eventually they will fall again. Of that there is no doubt. But when ......

I would be inclined to just watch and see what happens rather than try to predict.

rain_soaked

Jaketherake wrote: »

You'l' never be able to predict where house prices are going. They will go up and down over the years naturally, but all you can do is be ready for when they do one or the other. Or you could just ignore the ups and downs and get on with your life.

They will happen regardless and are impossible to foresee. Will the same people be posting next year about how prices will be going down so because all of the economic indicators say so?

Just out of interest how long have the people in the last few posts who mention economic indicators etc and house prices falling, been saying that the indicators have been pointing to a fall. One year, two years, three years ?

Eventually they will fall again. Of that there is no doubt. But when ......

I would be inclined to just watch and see what happens rather than try to predict.

they ( house price movements ) are not impossible to predict , those who got out around 2006 instinctively felt the market was overheated , those who bought in 2012 instinctively felt the market was oversold , its no different to other assets like stocks , stocks were clearly over sold in 2009 and right now are clearly on the pricey side

right now , i think we are sort of at fair value in dublin , cork and galway ( limerick is very cheap ) , i think the level of increase will be more moderate , we will likely get past peak prices some time in the next ten years however , that would mean it took twenty years to get pack to the top , im referring to cities BTW , rural ireland is never going back to bubble prices , there is no economic justification for it

Jaketherake

rain_soaked wrote: »

they ( house price movements ) are not impossible to predict , those who got out around 2006 instinctively felt the market was overheated , those who bought in 2012 instinctively felt the market was oversold , its no different to other assets like stocks , stocks were clearly over sold in 2009 and right now are clearly on the pricey side

right now , i think we are sort of at fair value in dublin , cork and galway ( limerick is very cheap ) , i think the level of increase will be more moderate , we will likely get past peak prices some time in the next ten years however , that would mean it took twenty years to get pack to the top , im referring to cities BTW , rural ireland is never going back to bubble prices , there is no economic justification for it

Purely hindsight and luck. Nothing more.
There are certain people who always feel a market is overheated, just as there are those who always think its only getting going.
I bet if you go back and ask them their opinions from years ago, they will have been saying the same thing.

I love talking to people who tell me that they knew in 2006 to get out of property like they were somehow expert about it and not just lucky.
Not one of them is rich now.
If I had been that good, I would have been sold out in 2006 completely and then bought like nobodies business in 2012. I would be rich beyond my wildest dreams now.
Sh1t I would have started even back in the 80s and 90s doing it.

I have one friend who bought his house in 2005 and another who bought one in 2012.
The one who bought in 2012 said to me several times he felt sorry for the one who had bought before the crash and that he knew there was a crash coming and that he waited til the bottom to buy. The reality is the guy who bought in 2005 has 10 years of his mortgage paid off. He is on an interest rate of ECB + 0.5, his mortgage is about €500 pm less than the other guy and he has paid 10 years less rent. Yes the 2012 guys house was cheaper than the one in 2005 (the houses themselves are similar enough), but has and will cost him much more. He didnt see that side of it, while he claims to have seen the rest.

handlemaster

Then of course theres this
http://m.rte.ie/news/2015/1003/732213-showhouse-occupation/

what the government do next is wide open. Populist politics seems to be the order of the day will they gave more money to coucils to buy back property they previously sold ?

ArraMusha

A house is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it at a point in time.
What point are we at now...? Everyone has their own opinion.
Are rapid increases or decreases good? definately not. Stability and sustainability is in everyones interest...but the majority of us are like sheep...baa.

We read or hear in the media of prices going up or someone we know who is buying and the majority jump on the bandwagon.
My opionion is that we are at a point in most of the country where prices are at a maximum or peak. buyers need to really consider that when the economic indicators are "good" and when the government are reporting a booming economy...it may not be the best time to over pay for anything. I hope we maintain a steady growth in the country but there are external factors to consider that will effect our growth over the coming decade. The 04 to 07 house prices were crazy, "never worth that" and loads of people got stung badly and are still stung. Looking at the asking prices in the papers recently, I think we're back there again.. but everyone has their own opinion.
Maybe the prices will keep going up. Maybe the government initiative on prefabs and vacant units will eventually cool the rental and buying demand for the next decade. Who knows.
If you are searching for a house/apt./land remember there's always new stuff coming on the market. Don't follow the other sheep cos sometimes they're not right. Don't overpay or get emotionally attached.
A house does not make a home.

Jaketherake

All you can do is make sure you are ready for the turn and survive or prosper from it. Whether it comes next year or in 10 years.

No point trying to figure out when it will happen.

Sala

At a viewing today the estate agent said they are of the opinion prices aren't still going up but have stabilized due to more stock on the market.

Rew

Villa05 wrote: »

You don't buy a house for 2015, you buy it for life

That exact terrible advice was given to me in 2008 and cost me in excess of €100k by the time we sold this year. Your life changes and houses don't necessarily change with it. We're probably not on edge of that same cliff as 2008 but that particular piece of advice is terrible and people should stop saying it. If your a FTB you especially haven't the first clue of what your going to need out of a house for life.

Rew

Sala wrote: »

At a viewing today the estate agent said they are of the opinion prices aren't still going up but have stabilized due to more stock on the market.

Viewing today and EA said Sept had been much slower for them than anticipated.

Alter_Ego

alastair wrote: »

The price increases aren't getting slower and slower. They're slower compared to last year's rapid increases, but August this year had a greater increase than July of this year, which had a greater increase than June of this year, which suggest current price increase acceleration, not slowdown. It's not a rapid increase (until August in any case), but it's not slowing.

First lesson on derivatives, now that. You are mixing in month on month figured with year on year figures, where I only consider the latter.

Like others, I don't mind and generally expect property prices to grow overtime as long as the rate of growth is sustainable and linked to inflation/affordability.

The_Conductor

What do you mean by inflation though?
Wage inflation?
Consumer price index?
Housing inflation (which is an index in its own right)?
etc etc

The sole driver of price in Ireland- appears to be scarcity.
Demand is chasing a limited supply- and increases, such as there are increases- are of such a pathetically low number to be meaningless.

For example- it is accepted that we need at a very minimum an increase in housing units in the Dublin area- of a minimum of 25,000 units per annum. Yet- our forecast completion rate for 2015 is barely 3,800 units. This is pathetic- there is no other word for it- pathetic.

If there was some manner of equilibrium between supply and demand- the market would stratify into logical segments- where various demographics felt the properties on offer, and the prices they commanded, were appropriate to their incomes etc.

The populist kite flying of the current government- is not tackling the root cause of house price inflation- instead- the suggestions will only put further pressure- in this instance- on the 'starter home' strata- where the government ministers are cheerfully suggesting people will 'get a foot on the property ladder (Alan Kelly)' and 'trade up as their circumstances change' (Leo Varadker- though why he is commenting on the property market is anyone's guess). This very concept- is what nuked the country in 2006- barely 10 years ago- yet here we are again.........

I'm disgusted.

johnnyskeleton

Rew wrote: »

That exact terrible advice was given to me in 2008 and cost me in excess of €100k by the time we sold this year. Your life changes and houses don't necessarily change with it. We're probably not on edge of that same cliff as 2008 but that particular piece of advice is terrible and people should stop saying it. If your a FTB you especially haven't the first clue of what your going to need out of a house for life.

Thats what the advice is supposed to convey - that you should look to what you will need in the future not what you need right now.

Villa05

Rew wrote:

That exact terrible advice was given to me in 2008 and cost me in excess of €100k by the time we sold this year. Your life changes and houses don't necessarily change with it. We're probably not on edge of that same cliff as 2008 but that particular piece of advice is terrible and people should stop saying it. If your a FTB you especially haven't the first clue of what your going to need out of a house for life.

The advise is there to make people think before they jump into the Dublin property market and potentially fall into the same trap you did

OfflerCrocGod

The_Conductor wrote: »

• In an Irish context- lack of housing highlighted for cancelling expansion plans by 2 major international employers here (Intel and Twitter) since Wednesday.

Do you have any links about those cancelled expansions?

The_Conductor

OfflerCrocGod wrote: »

Do you have any links about those cancelled expansions?

Eamonn Sinnott's recent campus statement (progress update on the new Fab- and statements about difficulties in finding accommodation for exchange staff (mostly from Israel and China)). The new Fab (and upgrades to pre-existing fabs)- are the largest in the world- however, Intel is being forced to recruit staff for other operations- notably in Shannon and Cork- due to lack of suitably qualified staff, accommodation and facilities/amenities for staff- in the North Kildare/Dublin areas. Can't find a press release- however, this is par-du course for Intel- they say as little as possible publicly.

Paypal have issued a circular to staff asking them to let bedrooms to other staff members. In addition- Paypal have negotiated rates at local hotels for new staff- and are paying 2k upfront for hotel accommodation for new staff.

Twitter- I'm trying to find details- but it was in an address to the Chambers- and akin to Ann Phelan's comments- mentioned specific issues with bringing in contract staff who they can't recruit here, because of a lack of language skills here- and they can't accommodate them.

CIF have hopped into bed with a few environmental groups (strange bedfellows if ever I heard it) and issued statements akin to Susan McGarry's on 30,000 apartment units being needed right here, right now- for Dublin.

Go to some of the industry events- listen to what the various people are saying.

Of all the information out there- Intel's speech was the most stark.

Bob24

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Thats what the advice is supposed to convey - that you should look to what you will need in the future not what you need right now.

You can only do that to a point though:
1) as a first time buyer you don't necessarily have the budget to buy what you will need in 15 years
2) you might want or have to move to a different location in the future ... and your house is not going to move with you

So I tend to agree with him, telling people they are buying a property for life (implying that price cycles don't matter) is very poor advice.

Villa05

Bob24 wrote:

So I tend to agree with him, telling people they are buying a property for life (implying that price cycles don't matter) is very poor advice.

The advise has as much to do with the type of property you buy as at has with price cycles. Where property is concerned, my advise would be to buy once and for life. This property ladder and snakes has ruined so many families

Pay attention to the factors that contribute to price inflation, when there are too many of them in the mix, avoid buying.

Almost all these factors are in the Dublin market

OfflerCrocGod

Thanks The_Conductor, given all these pressures it seems likely that prices will remain supported at current levels for a while.

The_Conductor

The_Conductor wrote: »

Eamonn Sinnott's recent campus statement (progress update on the new Fab- and statements about difficulties in finding accommodation for exchange staff (mostly from Israel and China)). The new Fab (and upgrades to pre-existing fabs)- are the largest in the world- however, Intel is being forced to recruit staff for other operations- notably in Shannon and Cork- due to lack of suitably qualified staff, accommodation and facilities/amenities for staff- in the North Kildare/Dublin areas. Can't find a press release- however, this is par-du course for Intel- they say as little as possible publicly.

Paypal have issued a circular to staff asking them to let bedrooms to other staff members. In addition- Paypal have negotiated rates at local hotels for new staff- and are paying 2k upfront for hotel accommodation for new staff.

Twitter- I'm trying to find details- but it was in an address to the Chambers- and akin to Ann Phelan's comments- mentioned specific issues with bringing in contract staff who they can't recruit here, because of a lack of language skills here- and they can't accommodate them.

CIF have hopped into bed with a few environmental groups (strange bedfellows if ever I heard it) and issued statements akin to Susan McGarry's on 30,000 apartment units being needed right here, right now- for Dublin.

Go to some of the industry events- listen to what the various people are saying.

Of all the information out there- Intel's speech was the most stark.

I was house-hunting in this area and the Intel factor was a big one. Some medium-term employees/contractors from overseas were in the market to buy.

But an even bigger factor was agents advising would-be sellers to let their properties out instead of selling. Intel were desperately throwing money at agents who could find decent-sized family homes to rent to staff relocating from Israel, Oregon and elsewhere.

Their expectations were a bit beyond the standard three-bed rental i.e. four or five bedrooms, modern kitchen etc. An agent told me last year that the seller of a particular house 'wouldn't sell for less than X because he can get 3k a month from Intel' so he was talking to the bank about borrowing a bit more and keeping his house for high-yield rental.

Apparently there are plenty of disgruntled staff in the likes of Intel who gave up bigger, better houses (and better weather) elsewhere to move to Ireland. This is a real factor in getting and keeping FDI.

gaius c

Deleted User wrote: »

I was house-hunting in this area and the Intel factor was a big one. Some medium-term employees/contractors from overseas were in the market to buy.

But an even bigger factor was agents advising would-be sellers to let their properties out instead of selling. Intel were desperately throwing money at agents who could find decent-sized family homes to rent to staff relocating from Israel, Oregon and elsewhere.

Their expectations were a bit beyond the standard three-bed rental i.e. four or five bedrooms, modern kitchen etc. An agent told me last year that the seller of a particular house 'wouldn't sell for less than X because he can get 3k a month from Intel' so he was talking to the bank about borrowing a bit more and keeping his house for high-yield rental.

Apparently there are plenty of disgruntled staff in the likes of Intel who gave up bigger, better houses (and better weather) elsewhere to move to Ireland. This is a real factor in getting and keeping FDI.

We've already been and done that with pharma. A certain large pharma based near Clondalkin gave the government the riot act over the accommodation situation. Well qualified expats are not coming over here if all their money can afford is Walkinstown.

Rew

Daft report out this morning:

http://www.daft.ie/report/q3-2015-daft-house-price-report.pdf

Rew

The end of the world must be near, estate agents are ring me to follow up on viewings or to see if they have other stock id be interested in :eek:

handlemaster

Rew wrote: »

The end of the world must be near, estate agents are ring me to follow up on viewings or to see if they have other stock id be interested in :eek:

Must be hard times alright

fret_wimp2

Villa05 wrote: »

Where property is concerned, my advise would be to buy once and for life.

based on licking my finger and sticking it in the air as my source, i would imagine that past 10 & next 10 years that there is a much larger percentage of buyers who will move multiple times, than those who buy once and for life.

You have to go where the work is, thats something that a huge amount of people in this country dont understand. I have lots of unemployed friends back west who "just cant find work anywhere", but refuse to look further than a 30 min drive around their house located in the most rural location in Connacht.

A lot of people with a job (hence the means to buy property) have moved to where they can get work. The plan in a lot of cases is not to permanently relocate but work at getting back closer to home.

Again, this is all based on my experience and that of my circle of friends, but the logic of "buy once" means that a massive amount of people with means, will simply never buy.

A modern ireland has to come to terms with the fact that people buy, circumstances change,people sell and move.

Rew

fret_wimp2 wrote: »

based on licking my finger and sticking it in the air as my source, i would imagine that past 10 & next 10 years that there is a much larger percentage of buyers who will move multiple times, than those who buy once and for life.

You have to go where the work is, thats something that a huge amount of people in this country dont understand. I have lots of unemployed friends back west who "just cant find work anywhere", but refuse to look further than a 30 min drive around their house located in the most rural location in Connacht.

A lot of people with a job (hence the means to buy property) have moved to where they can get work. The plan in a lot of cases is not to permanently relocate but work at getting back closer to home.

Again, this is all based on my experience and that of my circle of friends, but the logic of "buy once" means that a massive amount of people with means, will simply never buy.

A modern ireland has to come to terms with the fact that people buy, circumstances change,people sell and move.

Totally, we bought a 4 bed dormer in 2008 that we reckoned we could live in
for a long time. 7 years, 2 kids, 2 dogs and a new job later couldn't wait to get out of the place.

El_Dangeroso

A well functioning market should support people trading up or down. Of course people's accommodation needs change throughout their life.

Now if we can just convince elderly people to trade down to something more suitable we'd have a lot more family homes available.

Rew

El_Dangeroso wrote: »

A well functioning market should support people trading up or down. Of course people's accommodation needs change throughout their life.

Now if we can just convince elderly people to trade down to something more suitable we'd have a lot more family homes available.

Very difficult to beyond a certain point to convince an older person to move for good reason but having viewed a few houses where it was an older person had died must be hard to be trying to keep such big houses at the same time.

El_Dangeroso

Rew wrote: »

Very difficult to beyond a certain point to convince an older person to move for good reason but having viewed a few houses where it was an older person had died must be hard to be trying to keep such big houses at the same time.

I have had relatives living in totally unsuitable accommodation so I know the mindset and it mostly seems to come down to 'having something to leave to the kids'. There also needs to be a lot more managed communities built. I know another elderly person who moved from a rural location and now has a great social life with a nice warm apartment and is really happy they did.