Property Market 2015

Bob24

fret_wimp2 wrote: »

And its still in peoples minds that a potential solution to this is relax the borrowing rules?

If you are someone trying to sell a property purchased in 2007 (or the government trying to balance the books of AIB), of course it is a perfect solution. Whether it is short sighted and might trigger a replay of the previous crisis is someone else's problem.

It's all a matter of vested interests and which ones prevail.

fret_wimp2

Bob24 wrote: »

If you are someone trying to sell a property purchased in 2007 (or the government trying to balance the books of AIB), of course it is a perfect solution.

It's all a matter of vested interests and which ones prevail.

How about forgetting interests of buyer and seller for a minute and think of the grander picture where we dont all end up once again borrowing gazillions at tax payers expense to bail out banks?

Thats a vested interest for everyone i would assume.

Bob24

fret_wimp2 wrote: »

How about forgetting interests of buyer and seller for a minute and think of the grander picture where we dont all end up once again borrowing gazillions at tax payers expense to bail out banks?

Thats a vested interest for everyone i would assume.

I couldn't agree more ... But you and I don't have much of a say in the matter. And too many people are still thinking of there own short term interest for the general public opinion to be any match for strong vested interest pushing their agendas with the government.

mel123

fret_wimp2 wrote: »

So to break it down to its bare bones:

-Property prices today are based on when people could borrow 4, 5 or even 6x their annual salary.
-Limits are in effect to prevent people borrowing beyond their means nowdays, roughly 3x salary.
-Property owners still want their property to be worth what they paid for it, lets say 5x salary but finance is not available.
-Stale mate - property is expensive, prospective buyers dont have access to the cash.

And its still in peoples minds that a potential solution to this is relax the borrowing rules?

I never said that at all. In fact, I'm buying a house under the new rules at the moment (touch wood, deposit given). I fully agree with something having to be done and I'm not against the idea of handing over more money for a deposit. The 3x salary I'm a bit on the fence about but how and ever.

What I mean by 'wouldn't surprise me' is this county/government/banking sector. Apologies my sarcastic tone didn't come across in the post, but that's what I mean

Rew

http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/stock-and-prices-improving-but-have-buyers-been-squeezed-out-1.2391536

Interesting...

Rachel Doyle, chief operations officer with PIBA, says the word from mortgage brokers is that many banks have already closed the door on granting exemptions this year.

johnp001

The_Conductor wrote: »

....

I can't see the budget having any effect whatsoever on house prices- or indeed supply- save the NAMA initiative- which won't effect the market to any large extent- as its only going to build less than a quarter of the necessary supply of 'starter homes' that we need ....

Daft Q3 report last week states supply in Dublin for 2015 is up 45% on last year

Greater stock on the market
A greater number of properties are available to buy in the Dublin market now, compared to a year ago - the average for the first 9 months of 2015 has been 4,100 at any one time, compared to 2,800 for the same period in 2014.

It is true that the proposed NAMA initiative is not proposing to build 100% of the new houses that there is a predicted demand for but even 20-25% of demand is very significant when supply in Dublin (the main area where supply has previously been constrained) has increased so much this year.

handlemaster

The Nama announcment is going to take a year or two to kick off and even at that isnt going to make much of a difference. It just shows the government is all out of ideas.

mel123

Rew wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/stock-and-prices-improving-but-have-buyers-been-squeezed-out-1.2391536

Interesting...

My broker told me this only yesterday as well

The_Conductor

johnp001 wrote: »

Daft Q3 report last week states supply in Dublin for 2015 is up 45% on last year

It is true that the proposed NAMA initiative is not proposing to build 100% of the new houses that there is a predicted demand for but even 20-25% of demand is very significant when supply in Dublin (the main area where supply has previously been constrained) has increased so much this year.

Even if supply is up 45% at any particular time- if its taking 3 times longer to sell this year than last (which annecdotally is now the situation- you're still looking at an a significant overall decrease in the numbers being sold.

Also- we now have just under twice as many sales falling through altogether- as we had at this time last year.

Blindly saying there are 45% more properties on DAFT this morning- than there was on the 16th Oct. 2014- is completely and utterly meaningless.

Well done to whoever decided to hop on it and spin it in the way they did- Churchill would have been proud of them....... (Lies, lies and damn statistics.......)

johnp001

The_Conductor wrote: »

Even if supply is up 45% at any particular time- if its taking 3 times longer to sell this year than last (which annecdotally is now the situation- you're still looking at an a significant overall decrease in the numbers being sold.

Also- we now have just under twice as many sales falling through altogether- as we had at this time last year.

Blindly saying there are 45% more properties on DAFT this morning- than there was on the 16th Oct. 2014- is completely and utterly meaningless.

Well done to whoever decided to hop on it and spin it in the way they did- Churchill would have been proud of them....... (Lies, lies and damn statistics.......)

That is the way it is presented in the DAFT Q3 report, I think previous reports gave graphs of supply for the regions showing the trajectory of supply levels as well as the less informative (but not utterly meaningless) YoY change figure.
On the same page the report shows the changes in time to sell QoQ and YoY in the form of a bar chart.
If supply is increasing and sales are slowing then any increase to supply made by the NAMA proposals in the budget is more likely to affect the market. (than if supply was dwindling and sales accelerating)

gosplan

Bob24 wrote: »

If you are someone trying to sell a property purchased in 2007 (or the government trying to balance the books of AIB), of course it is a perfect solution. Whether it is short sighted and might trigger a replay of the previous crisis is someone else's problem.

It's all a matter of vested interests and which ones prevail.

Hopefully people realise that our collective vested interest is in the homeless crisis, the billions of debt, the lives ruined by the crash, the ghost estates, the priory halls, the families across the world, the water charges.

leinsterdude

so who thinks people in Dublin will surge to the commuter towns ? happened before, Dublin is very expensive.

Rew

leinsterdude wrote: »

so who thinks people in Dublin will surge to the commuter towns ? happened before, Dublin is very expensive.

Sold in a commuter town earlier in the year same houses now are getting 40-50k less if they manage to sell.

MarkAnthony

You can surge to Kildare et al and have an hours commute, or surge to the North City suburbs and have a 15 minute commute by DART while you sip your coffee in a china mug you made as you walked out the door for your 3 minute walk to the DART station.

Granted in Kildare you're likely to get more of a garden but you're going to have 90 minutes a day less to enjoy it!

There is some great value to be had in Dublin still. Again if you're more worried by having to tell a 12 year old to feck off away from your front garden than having a house invasion that no one knows about for 72 hours the back of beyond might well be just the ticket! :pac:

Rew

More calls from EAs today looking to let us know about new stock they have. Looks like last weekend wasn't a fluke.

newacc2015

leinsterdude wrote: »

so who thinks people in Dublin will surge to the commuter towns ? happened before, Dublin is very expensive.

So people refuse to live outside the M50(me included). I would rather live in a ****ty small house in Dublin City, than having to commute for an hour each way to live in a generic 3/4 bed semi-D in a lifeless town with no amenities. Where I can never afford to get a taxi home from Dublin.

I can see more and more people living in the less desirable parts of the city. My friend moved to a rough enough part of Dublin 8. All the houses sold on his street have been brought by professionals who have gutted the houses. Like me they would rather live in a rough area close to the City than elsewhere

Honestly people need to have more realistic expectations. We cant all expect to live in large houses close to the City for a steal.

leinsterdude

yes but plenty towns have amenities, I love Dublin, but Naas, Navan, Drogheda, all are great towns....

handlemaster

newacc2015 wrote: »

So people refuse to live outside the M50(me included). I would rather live in a ****ty small house in Dublin City, than having to commute for an hour each way to live in a generic 3/4 bed semi-D in a lifeless town with no amenities. Where I can never afford to get a taxi home from Dublin.

I can see more and more people living in the less desirable parts of the city. My friend moved to a rough enough part of Dublin 8. All the houses sold on his street have been brought by professionals who have gutted the houses. Like me they would rather live in a rough area close to the City than elsewhere

Honestly people need to have more realistic expectations. We cant all expect to live in large houses close to the City for a steal.

There is some merit to this . Ive seen over the last two years prices in dublin 15 shoot up in all areas.

Mongfinder General

handlemaster wrote: »

There is some merit to this . Ive seen over the last two years prices in dublin 15 shoot up in all areas.

There's bad, and then there's bad. Big difference between Inchicore and Jobstown

Rew

handlemaster wrote: »

There is some merit to this . Ive seen over the last two years prices in dublin 15 shoot up in all areas.

Prices in the whole country have been coming up for 2 years

The_Conductor

leinsterdude wrote: »

yes but plenty towns have amenities, I love Dublin, but Naas, Navan, Drogheda, all are great towns....

They are great towns- and have great amenities for people locally- however- the point we're trying to make is the price for accessing these amenities is simply too great- if it involves a commute of at least an hour each way- to and from work (last week on one day- if took me over 2 hours each way, from Lucan to the Dublin city centre- of which over an hour each way was spent on the respective sides of the quays).

This simple fact- the onerous commute- and the lack of a reasonably functioning public sector transport system- mean living in areas we'd not normally consider- without access to reasonable services and amenities- is a price increasing numbers of people are willing to pay.........

Inchicore, by the way- was always a respectable working class area. It had a few estates (and indeed still does)- where you would be well advised not to park your car in the dark- however, it never had the reputation that Jobstown or Tallaght had once upon a time. There are parts of Lucan I'd not walk in, in the dark- and I'm a male in my 40s. Every area has some highlights and lowlights- tarring an entire area as desireable or non-desireable- isn't helpful (or accurate).

The_Conductor

Rew wrote: »

Prices in the whole country have been coming up for 2 years

Prices in certain areas have dragged indexes into positive territory for the last 29 months. These areas have waxed and waned. There were more areas in Dublin on the up over the last almost 3 years, than stagnating or falling in value- however- a tipping point was reached earlier this year (and the effects of the tipping point were only minimised by low volumes of sales).

We do not have a sustainable property market- no sector of the residential property market even approaches 'normal market conditions'. With the platitudes of the incumbent government ringing in our ears- it would appear, we're not going to have a functional property market for a long time to come (if ever).


There are distinct trends emerging in CSO and (lagging the CSO statistics) PPR statistics. They do not support a continuation of what has been happening for the past 30 months.

Mongfinder General

The_Conductor wrote: »

They are great towns- and have great amenities for people locally- however- the point we're trying to make is the price for accessing these amenities is simply too great- if it involves a commute of at least an hour each way- to and from work (last week on one day- if took me over 2 hours each way, from Lucan to the Dublin city centre- of which over an hour each way was spent on the respective sides of the quays).

This simple fact- the onerous commute- and the lack of a reasonably functioning public sector transport system- mean living in areas we'd not normally consider- without access to reasonable services and amenities- is a price increasing numbers of people are willing to pay.........

Inchicore, by the way- was always a respectable working class area. It had a few estates (and indeed still does)- where you would be well advised not to park your car in the dark- however, it never had the reputation that Jobstown or Tallaght had once upon a time. There are parts of Lucan I'd not walk in, in the dark- and I'm a male in my 40s. Every area has some highlights and lowlights- tarring an entire area as desireable or non-desireable- isn't helpful (or accurate).

The point I was trying to make is this. I would live in Inchicore. I wouldn't put an animal in Jobstown.

The_Conductor

Mongfinder General wrote: »

The point I was trying to make is this. I would live in Inchicore. I wouldn't put an animal in Jobstown.

I'd live in Inchicore too- or indeed Lucan- but even these areas have estates that you just avoid. As for Jobstown- its not gentrified in the manner that Tallaght now is- but its definitely not as bad as it used to be. Personally- I'd not live there- but I do know some people who live there- and I also know of entire estates that call themselves Firhouse to try and ensure that they are not stigmatised with a 'Jobstown' address....... I get entirely what you're saying.

Glenbhoy

handlemaster wrote: »

No reduction in the high taxes for landlords. I hope they have taken into consideration more rent rises next year when tackling the housing crises as private landlords handing 50% of rent recieved back to the government is only going to keep rents going up.

If that is the situation you encounter, I would advise you egage professional assistance for calculating and filing your tax returns, it's normal that tax is only paid on the rental profits and nit on the rents received, granted not all expenses are fully deductible, but most are to a large extent. Professional assistance would be fully deductible and it sounds as though the cost would yield significant benefits.
Of course it may be that your rental asset is mortgage free and incurs little by way of expense, in which case iI'm not sure that a reasonable argument could be made for reducing taxes on rental income.

The_Conductor

Posts on CSO/PPR etc split off into their own thread- as already debated on this one.

mathie

The_Conductor wrote: »

Even if supply is up 45% at any particular time- if its taking 3 times longer to sell this year than last (which annecdotally is now the situation- you're still looking at an a significant overall decrease in the numbers being sold.

Also- we now have just under twice as many sales falling through altogether- as we had at this time last year.

Blindly saying there are 45% more properties on DAFT this morning- than there was on the 16th Oct. 2014- is completely and utterly meaningless.

Well done to whoever decided to hop on it and spin it in the way they did- Churchill would have been proud of them....... (Lies, lies and damn statistics.......)

But isn't supply one of the fundamentals?
Supply and demand?

Santy2015

Just seen on daft that houses in the estate I've been looking at have gone up by 27 percent from 90k to 115k that's a crazy rise. I know prices are going up but 27 percent is massive.

NinjaTruncs

Santy2015 wrote: »

Just seen on daft that houses in the estate I've been looking at have gone up by 27 percent from 90k to 115k that's a crazy rise. I know prices are going up but 27 percent is massive.

Do you mean the price increases range from 90K to 110K or the purchase prices have increased from 90K to 100K?

Santy2015

NinjaTruncs wrote:

Do you mean the price increases range from 90K to 110K or the purchase prices have increased from 90K to 100K?

the houses that were up were starting from 90k for mid terrace which has now increased to 115k I know that the semi detached were 110k and detached 140k but have seen nothing as of yet if they've increased or not but more then likely have. The estate agent only emailed me on Tuesday morning with those exact prices