Property Market 2015

I Am The Law

junk_hoarder wrote: »

income levels in limerick ( from what i gather ) are above the national average , not sure how much lower income levels in limerick are than galway city or navan , naas , bray or maynooth but houses in limerick are far cheaper

i follow the property market very closely , limerick is remarkably cheap by contrast with many much smaller urban areas , i dont buy the idea that an area has to be either galway or cork or in close proximity to dublin to have any kind of value , limerick isnt leitrim

Links to cheap houses please? I'll let you know how the bidding goes and you can add it to your very closely followed property market.

As for the other large cities, you're dead right, very bad value indeed.

MarkAnthony

Great value to be had in D5 or there was, haven't been following it as closely post purchase.

People need to understand that Dublin isn't going to have a massive crash while wages remain at current levels. A major fall in Dublin would mean there would be other issues at play.

As I'm fond of saying, Dublin isn't expensive when you look at other EU cities. The outskirts of Dublin see a couple on minimum wage servicing a mortgage on three bedroom terrace. The 'crisis' is being blown out of all proportion as usual.

OfflerCrocGod

Arrears are slowly going down, http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/1211/752828-ninth-quarter-of-falls-in-mortgage-arrears/ also interesting to see the low number of arrears in the Dublin area in percentage terms. Even if all houses in long term arrears where to be repossessed and sold by banks it would only mean < 3% of the Dublin stock. I think in a normal year in the UK they turn over 4% of the housing market with our market healing up we should be able to deal with such a purge (not that I think it likely, we prefer to keep extending and pretending...) at least without causing a significant drop in prices.

Cuddlesworth

OfflerCrocGod wrote: »

Arrears are slowly going down, http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/1211/752828-ninth-quarter-of-falls-in-mortgage-arrears/ also interesting to see the low number of arrears in the Dublin area in percentage terms. Even if all houses in long term arrears where to be repossessed and sold by banks it would only mean < 3% of the Dublin stock. I think in a normal year in the UK they turn over 4% of the housing market with our market healing up we should be able to deal with such a purge (not that I think it likely, we prefer to keep extending and pretending...) at least without causing a significant drop in prices.

Its interesting reading the source and the point they are trying to get across, rather than the journalists spin on it. Rather than put my own spin on it, here is both the report and the conclusion.

https://www.centralbank.ie/publications/Documents/Economic%20Letter%20-%20Vol%202015,%20No.%2011.pdf

5 Conclusion
This Letter has outlined a range of new statistics on the characteristics of households in longterm mortgage arrears (LTMA) in Ireland. The data reveal that there are important differnces between those in LTMA and those in the early stages of mortgage arrears. Households in LTMA are shown to have experienced far more severe negative shocks during the crisis period, leading to much more onerous repayment burdens. Further, these households have also taken on higher levels of non-mortgage debt and are experiencing weaker housing equity positions. Our analysis also highlights that repayment rates are extremely low among those in LTMA, with continued growth in arrears occurring in 2014 for 84, 73 and 69 per cent of households in greater than 720, 540 and 360 days past due. Conversely, the data reveal that almost half of those in very early-stage arrears were returning to full loan performance in 2014. Finally, we also show that the flow into arrears remained high relative to historical patterns in 2014, at 1.6 per cent of the pool of performing mortgages, suggesting that vigilance must be maintained among lenders and policy makers to ensure that cases of household financial distressed are resolved early and rapidly

Barely Hedged

MarkAnthony wrote: »

So when do we get to start calling each other eejits for the predictions 11 months ago. Will he have to wait for figures in Jan '16 or later?

16th Jan of this year

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Dublin residental -> +5% to 7%. Shortage in supply, wage inflation, CB requirements

Dublin City -> 0% to -5%. Drop in cash buyers

Rural -> +10%

gaius c

OfflerCrocGod wrote: »

Arrears are slowly going down, http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/1211/752828-ninth-quarter-of-falls-in-mortgage-arrears/ also interesting to see the low number of arrears in the Dublin area in percentage terms. Even if all houses in long term arrears where to be repossessed and sold by banks it would only mean < 3% of the Dublin stock. I think in a normal year in the UK they turn over 4% of the housing market with our market healing up we should be able to deal with such a purge (not that I think it likely, we prefer to keep extending and pretending...) at least without causing a significant drop in prices.

Yes and no.
The arrears might be on the apartment in Carrickonshannon but the owner could be elsewhere with other assets that would get thrown into the mix in the event of a liquidation.

P.S. normal turnover rate would be closer to 5-7%. UK market is anything but normal at the moment.

guile4582

apologies for the hijack......


can someone recommend (if one exists) a guide to buying in Dublin
where i can view a property price index
how i should prepare etc

potentially can buy next year. so starting to do viewings soon and prep

The_Conductor

guile4582 wrote: »

apologies for the hijack......


can someone recommend (if one exists) a guide to buying in Dublin
where i can view a property price index
how i should prepare etc

potentially can buy next year. so starting to do viewings soon and prep

https://www.propertypriceregister.ie has a listing of all property sales advised to the Revenue Commissioners. If you put in a particular area- you can get a list of sales (e.g. for a particular estate) and see how prices in a particular area have evolved.

There isn't any 'guide' per se- pretty much anyone who tries to tell you otherwise has some sort of a vested interest........

Preparation? Save as large a % towards the deposit as possible- and clear any debts you may have..........

Also- 'Dublin' is a myriad of little markets- with some areas a lot more desireable than others- with prices and trends that show just this. Trends for Lucan or Blanchardstown- may differ completely from Raheny or Santry........ (or indeed- may not).

CSO publishes the property price index every month. Here's October data, published in November
http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexoctober2015/
That gives you a broad picture of the market.

Have a look at the Property Price Register to see the kind of prices for houses in the areas you are interested in http://www.myhome.ie/priceregister

Figure out what you really need and the other things you'd like: number of bedrooms; how important is scope for expansion; distance to work; schools (for now or later); new house or old (if old, will you have cash to renovate/decorate if necessary?).

Drive around places you think will be in your price range and get a feel for them. What's it like at 8.30am?

Talk to your bank nice and early about your borrowing capacity. It might even be worth putting in a full application (depending on your bank) on a specific house just so you get a real idea of how much you'll get.

Sometimes the online calculators give you a figure which, when it comes to the crunch, you can't get because the bank finds something in your credit history that they don't like (debts, gambling habits); you have liabilities (e.g. a child to support) which they want to take account of; they won't count your full income because some of it is overtime (for example).

Then read all 249 pages of this thread and promise yourself you won't become as obsessed as some of use have :cool:

guile4582

hahaha

thanks guys

good info there, met with a mortgage broker already, he likes what he sees of us on paper (family friend)

there just seems to be nothing out there in my max range in areas i want to live in, that is the only thing.

so i am figuring it will be bid on house that are listed for much more

but of course, first get reading all the info, registers etc

thanks again

SarahMollie

guile4582 wrote: »

hahaha

thanks guys

good info there, met with a mortgage broker already, he likes what he sees of us on paper (family friend)

there just seems to be nothing out there in my max range in areas i want to live in, that is the only thing.

so i am figuring it will be bid on house that are listed for much more

but of course, first get reading all the info, registers etc

thanks again

Where are you thinking of looking? What sort of budget do you have and what are your criteria for a potential property?

Are the properties that you've looked at (i presume online) far out of your range or would you be bidding a small amount under asking in % terms?

Would you be prepared to do work or are you looking for a turnkey property?

Are you being assessed as a couple or an individual?

* recent buyer/current nosey parker.

guile4582

Where are you thinking of looking?
Initially (want to stay southside, ideally close to Luas): Dundrum, Ballinteer, Kilmacud (need to do a recon on other surrounding areas - I am not from Dub orig) - 30 mins cycle to city centre max if possible

What sort of budget do you have and what are your criteria for a potential property?
3 bed house with garden, spacious, garage, access to decent schools, 350k

Are the properties that you've looked at (i presume online) far out of your range or would you be bidding a small amount under asking in % terms?
Anything half decent looks 400k +

Would you be prepared to do work or are you looking for a turnkey property?
Prepared to do the work, but not being taken for a mug. have seen mates move into houses and not needing much work and others paying OTT and still having to do a lot of work to make it liveable.

Are you being assessed as a couple or an individual? Couple

* recent buyer/current nosey parker.

guile4582

guile4582 wrote: »

hahaha

thanks guys

good info there, met with a mortgage broker already, he likes what he sees of us on paper (family friend)

there just seems to be nothing out there in my max range in areas i want to live in, that is the only thing.

so i am figuring it will be bid on house that are listed for much more

but of course, first get reading all the info, registers etc

thanks again

The property price register can help you figure out whether asking prices are majorly out of sync with actual sale prices.

I bought this year but I spent a long time being 'shocked' at how houses I felt were overpriced were actually selling for in and around the asking prices. Some houses really are overpriced and they have to drop the asking price or settle for less when it comes to the crunch. But don't torture yourself by viewing houses 15%-20% over your budget.

guile4582

guile4582 wrote: »

Where are you thinking of looking?
Initially (want to stay southside, ideally close to Luas): Dundrum, Ballinteer, Kilmacud (need to do a recon on other surrounding areas - I am not from Dub orig) - 30 mins cycle to city centre max if possible

What sort of budget do you have and what are your criteria for a potential property?
3 bed house with garden, spacious, garage, access to decent schools, 350k

Are the properties that you've looked at (i presume online) far out of your range or would you be bidding a small amount under asking in % terms?
Anything half decent looks 400k +

Would you be prepared to do work or are you looking for a turnkey property?
Prepared to do the work, but not being taken for a mug. have seen mates move into houses and not needing much work and others paying OTT and still having to do a lot of work to make it liveable.

Are you being assessed as a couple or an individual? Couple

* recent buyer/current nosey parker.

Given that you're at the start of the process, maybe now is a good time to do a DAFT search in other areas to see what you'd get for the money.

Then you can weigh up the pros and cons, and figure out what trade-offs you're willing to make. There will be compromises ahead - make them early and get on with life!

The things about doing work on a house is that you need to have cash left over after the purchase. It's one thing being prepared to do the work but you might have to first be prepared to not do the work for a few years, if you see what I mean. If you buy a house with dated decor you can stick it out for a while and save. If it has no kitchen or central heating...you better have tens of thousands of euro left after purchase.

Santy2015

I'll give an example, my fianc e and I recently applied for a mortgage and we're just waiting for a yes or no, but anyway was told we should be fine and should get the amount we need as we are looking in one specific area that we like and that would be in our supposed price range. Now I rang up the EA who's working for the vendor, I knew the price for the house was 140k with kitchen and fireplace included,but was told 130k as a builders finish, this is were the property price register comes in. A house in the exact same area sold for 120k only 3 weeks ago. Only rang the EA this time two weeks ago a week after that sale went through. These houses were built in 07/08 and out of 38 houses there's still 13 left. My best guess will be that hopefully when we get approval that I'll be offering 115k

gaius c

guile4582 wrote: »

Where are you thinking of looking?
Initially (want to stay southside, ideally close to Luas): Dundrum, Ballinteer, Kilmacud (need to do a recon on other surrounding areas - I am not from Dub orig) - 30 mins cycle to city centre max if possible

What sort of budget do you have and what are your criteria for a potential property?
3 bed house with garden, spacious, garage, access to decent schools, 350k

Are the properties that you've looked at (i presume online) far out of your range or would you be bidding a small amount under asking in % terms?
Anything half decent looks 400k +

Would you be prepared to do work or are you looking for a turnkey property?
Prepared to do the work, but not being taken for a mug. have seen mates move into houses and not needing much work and others paying OTT and still having to do a lot of work to make it liveable.

Are you being assessed as a couple or an individual? Couple

* recent buyer/current nosey parker.

Out laws are from Ballinteer and you'll really be struggling to get anything like what you're looking for at the €350k level. All you'll get for that money would be an apartment.
Basically, if you want to live in a house in a vaguely middle-class area, you need minimum €400k.

Kilmacud has nothing on myhome and Fundrum has 2 places:
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/77-rosemount-dundrum-dublin-14/3357675
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/80-mulvey-park-dundrum-dublin-14/3370042
85 m2 and 60 m2
I'm guessing that's not what you had in mind when you said spacious. And I'm guessing you didn't have ex-council in mind either.

Really for your budget, you're better off looking in Ballycullen or Firhouse.
[personal opinion alert]Or else you could hold onto your money and see if there's better value down the line.[/personal opinion alert]

guile4582

thanks.

originally i said to myself i would be comfortable with: Kimmage, Firhouse, Knocklyon, Ballyboden and other parts of Rathfarnham

but man, the bus route is crap!

chapelizod anyone??

we are not maxing out at 350k by any stretch, could probably get a mortgage for 450k plus. but weary that we want to have a life and be able to repay

* we are completely flexible where we can live (bar the criteria)

sweetie

Chapelizod is a nice area, very central and close to the park etc.

Dearg81

guile4582 wrote: »

thanks.

originally i said to myself i would be comfortable with: Kimmage, Firhouse, Knocklyon, Ballyboden and other parts of Rathfarnham

but man, the bus route is crap!

chapelizod anyone??

we are not maxing out at 350k by any stretch, could probably get a mortgage for 450k plus. but weary that we want to have a life and be able to repay

* we are completely flexible where we can live (bar the criteria)

If you like Dundrum you should also consider Churchtown. The house prices are a lot cheaper and a lot of them are close enough to walk to Dundrum. This seems to be the only one in your range at the moment but keep a look out for more : http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/370-nutgrove-avenue-churchtown-dublin-14/3301620

I've been living in Dundrum for 4 years and the Churchtown area beside Dundrum is a good area although the houses are not as nice looking as most of the ones in Dundrum.

You should also consider Sandyford Village and Stepaside as houses there are cheaper than Dundrum and Kilmacud but still on the Luas line.

We went through something like this, starting with swanky parts of south Dublin, flirting with nice parts of D9/11, squinting at D14/16 and so on until we were either at or beyond the M50 at Ballinteer/Templeogue.

Then we took stock and started looking at Lucan and north Kildare where you get bigger houses and the distance to town is not much worse. Neither of us are from south Dublin anyway so it just didn't make sense to spend 400+ on a doer-upper with three beds and mediocre public transport.

We don't need to go to town every day so that's obviously a big factor but Leixlip and Maynooth have good trains into Connolly and Celbridge/Hazelhatch has express trains to Heuston. Food for thought...

The Mulk

Deleted User wrote: »

We went through something like this, starting with swanky parts of south Dublin, flirting with nice parts of D9/11, squinting at D14/16 and so on until we were either at or beyond the M50 at Ballinteer/Templeogue.

Then we took stock and started looking at Lucan and north Kildare where you get bigger houses and the distance to town is not much worse. Neither of us are from south Dublin anyway so it just didn't make sense to spend 400+ on a doer-upper with three beds and mediocre public transport.

We don't need to go to town every day so that's obviously a big factor but Leixlip and Maynooth have good trains into Connolly and Celbridge/Hazelhatch has express trains to Heuston. Food for thought...

Phoenix park tunnel is due to open next summer/autumn, hopefully the Hazelhatch to Connolly will be a quick enough commute.
All three places mentioned also have decent X buses and Nightlinks

leinsterdude

Yes, Kildare is good, as is any town 20-30 miles of Dublin, any further though, if you do work in the city is a bit too far.

OfflerCrocGod

Planning applications up 25% http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/1215/753661-rise-in-planning-permissions-for-homes/

Azrel

OfflerCrocGod wrote: »

Planning applications up 25% http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/1215/753661-rise-in-planning-permissions-for-homes/

2,662 units.. Does anyone else read these stats and think it still doesn't come anywhere near addressing the supply issue?

OfflerCrocGod

Azrel wrote: »

2,662 units.. Does anyone else read these stats and think it still doesn't come anywhere near addressing the supply issue?

If we get another year of ~25% growth it will hit ~3400 pps per Q. It takes time to recover from a shock like the Irish house market took.

Michael D Not Higgins

Azrel wrote: »

2,662 units.. Does anyone else read these stats and think it still doesn't come anywhere near addressing the supply issue?

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/homes-built-in-dublin-last-year-only-met-half-of-the-demand-1.2305951

This story from August says last year only half of the required minimum number of houses for Dublin were built. If the planning applications are up 25% then it's at 62.5% of what's needed (not taking into account the carry over from last year).

Taking the carry over, we're at 42% of what's needed, in other words despite the increase, we're doing worse than last year.

SarahMollie

guile4582 wrote: »

Where are you thinking of looking?
Initially (want to stay southside, ideally close to Luas): Dundrum, Ballinteer, Kilmacud (need to do a recon on other surrounding areas - I am not from Dub orig) - 30 mins cycle to city centre max if possible

What sort of budget do you have and what are your criteria for a potential property?
3 bed house with garden, spacious, garage, access to decent schools, 350k

Are the properties that you've looked at (i presume online) far out of your range or would you be bidding a small amount under asking in % terms?
Anything half decent looks 400k +

Would you be prepared to do work or are you looking for a turnkey property?
Prepared to do the work, but not being taken for a mug. have seen mates move into houses and not needing much work and others paying OTT and still having to do a lot of work to make it liveable.

Are you being assessed as a couple or an individual? Couple

* recent buyer/current nosey parker.

To echo what others have said, unfortunately I don't think that budget is realistic for those areas.

I've just bought a few months ago and for your budget +€20k I got a 3 bed duplex in a nice development in Stillorgan/Kilmacud. Decor was a bit dated so I've replaced the kitchen, painted and re-floored the whole place so its cost me a fair extra whack on top as well.

I'd been looking in all the same ares as you've outlined and €350 just won't get you anywhere near what you've described. €450 would be the starting point in my opinion. I did see some ex local authority that might be an option but they definitely weren't spacious.

I'm not sure about how quickly prices will go up, but they certainly won't be going down in those areas any time soon.

SarahMollie

guile4582 wrote: »

thanks.

originally i said to myself i would be comfortable with: Kimmage, Firhouse, Knocklyon, Ballyboden and other parts of Rathfarnham

but man, the bus route is crap!

chapelizod anyone??

we are not maxing out at 350k by any stretch, could probably get a mortgage for 450k plus. but weary that we want to have a life and be able to repay

* we are completely flexible where we can live (bar the criteria)

As it happens, I was renting in Ballyboden before moving into my new place so I've probably considered a lot of the same things you have!

We'd a nice 14months in Ballyboden but I couldn't commit to the area long term because I felt it was a bit to remote for me, and was probably let down once too often by the 15b! (I'm originally from D9, so grew up with lots of public transport and being able to walk into the city if I needed).
I also had an rule that I wasn't going to look outside the M50 - this was just a personal boundary that i felt I count cross!

Never looked at Chapolizid, but was a bit tempted by Kimmage and Kilmainham/Island bridge - have you looked around that area at all? I'd say it might be a savy investment and I love the idea of being closer to the city.

MarkAnthony

@guile Why are you limiting yourself to South Dublin? Your budget would allow you a nice property in the North 'burbs on the DART line and potentially within a 30-45 min cycle to the City centre along the lovely coastal cycle tracks and through Clontarf.

guile4582

lived here for the last 10 years, all friends are here, all activities i like doing are here. I know it i suppose. I am open to northside but really really enjoy my life on the southside.

quicker access to home, down the country.

None of these are nailed on reasons to stay southside, but simple answer is i like it. I will exhaust all avenues

btw: where would u suggest? Raheny, Killester? Clontarf isnt really affordable is it?