Property Market 2015

At this point anyone bidding on a house would be wise to ask the agent to ensure that competing bidders have full mortgage approval in writing (not a promise from a broker, or a nod from a salesperson in their branch, nor an online calculator!).

One of the agents in my area does this. Mildly inconvenient first time I had to produce paperwork but makes sure all bidders are for real. Nothing more frustrating than 'losing' a bidding war only to find that the 'winner' couldn't come up with the cash.

The Spider

The Spider wrote: »

Before anyone thinks we're back at the peak or heading to it, take a look at this link and check google maps for the actual houses, I have to admit my jaw hit the floor.

Prices at the start of 2007

http://www.independent.ie/unsorted/property/auctions-are-back-with-a-bang-26291290.html

Some crazy stuff there. Hilarious article. Indo glad to see signs of recovery - in May 2007

Bob24

Deleted User wrote: »

At this point anyone bidding on a house would be wise to ask the agent to ensure that competing bidders have full mortgage approval in writing (not a promise from a broker, or a nod from a salesperson in their branch, nor an online calculator!).

One of the agents in my area does this. Mildly inconvenient first time I had to produce paperwork but makes sure all bidders are for real. Nothing more frustrating than 'losing' a bidding war only to find that the 'winner' couldn't come up with the cash.

Very much agreed. The level of opacity in the bidding process is just crazy ...

BUT ... unless legally obliged why would they bother checking? That ghost buyer is letting them extract more money from you.

MarkAnthony

Bob24 wrote: »

Very much agreed. The level of opacity in the bidding process is just crazy ...

BUT ... unless legally obliged why would they bother checking? That ghost buyers is letting them extract more money from you.

To be fair they have pressure to turn over volume as well as get as much money as possible. Even on a 500K house and 2% the difference of getting another 50K is €1000. Now €1000 is nice but not as nice as selling 5 houses at 500K. If sales are falling through it's going to have a number of knock on effects.

starlit

I don't know how people could afford houses at 500K they have to be very wealthy. At 300,000-400,000 aprox would be just about manageable but you'd have to really save. 50,000-299,000 be more affordable?

I am not sure if they get the turn over they need if its money people don't have and the banks can only do so much.

I just hope there won't be another property crash is that why they want to increase prices all over Ireland not just in Dublin and have mortgages at 20% to prevent another property crash? They really need to monitor things more closely. The 30 somethings seem to be hit the hardest.

The Spider

doovdela wrote: »

I don't know how people could afford houses at 500K they have to be very wealthy. At 300,000-400,000 aprox would be just about manageable but you'd have to really save. 50,000-299,000 be more affordable?

I am not sure if they get the turn over they need if its money people don't have and the banks can only do so much.

I just hope there won't be another property crash is that why they want to increase prices all over Ireland not just in Dublin and have mortgages at 20% to prevent another property crash? They really need to monitor things more closely. The 30 somethings seem to be hit the hardest.

Not really two people on 75k each would qualify for 3.5 times income, that really isn't an outrageous salary, problems occur when kids come into. Me personally I'd never go near that even if the bank'd give it to me, firm believer in owing as little as possible.

The Spider

Don't know if this is the right place, but worth a read.

http://www.xojane.com/issues/my-rent-got-a-major-new-year-upgrade-when-do-i-concede-defeat

jay0109

The Spider wrote: »

Before anyone thinks we're back at the peak or heading to it, take a look at this link and check google maps for the actual houses, I have to admit my jaw hit the floor.

Prices at the start of 2007

http://www.independent.ie/unsorted/property/auctions-are-back-with-a-bang-26291290.html

Oh, the days of 'Peak' which all in the media keep referencing back to

Dublin 6
Sherry FitzGerald: 34 Westfield Road, Harolds Cross, Dublin 6. AMV €1.8m, semi-detached, 5 bed, detached bungalow, 2 bed. Withdrawn at €1.725m, sold after for higher.

Here's #41 currently for sale and has a bid of 675k on it
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/41-westfield-road-harold-s-cross-dublin-6w/3056137

The Spider

Interesting only 34% of people have a mortgage on their main residence in Ireland.

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0129/676424-only-34-have-mortgage-on-main-residence/

So that means plenty of cash in the system for anyone trading down or moving etc, and people wonder where the cash buyers are coming from.

handlemaster

The Spider wrote: »

Interesting only 34% of people have a mortgage on their main residence in Ireland.

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0129/676424-only-34-have-mortgage-on-main-residence/

So that means plenty of cash in the system for anyone trading down or moving etc, and people wonder where the cash buyers are coming from.

Its very low. The whole poor mouth is so over played in Ireland and the Media lap it up ...

The Spider

handlemaster wrote: »

Its very low. The whole poor mouth is so over played in Ireland and the Media lap it up ...

Well you only hear from the people who find it hard to get a mortgage, you never hear from people who had 30% deposit or the full amount in cash, all that happens very quietly, thus the rising prices.

ElizKenny

There are very few happy people on message boards
Very few who arent experts in whatever subject they are posting in either

Bob24

ElizKenny wrote: »

There are very few happy people on message boards
Very few who arent experts in whatever subject they are posting in either

:-)

Go have a look at some high-end Hi-Fi or photographic equipment forums though ... full of happy people who have money to spend (and some who are open to debate and know what they are talking about).

ionapaul

The Spider wrote: »

Interesting only 34% of people have a mortgage on their main residence in Ireland.

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0129/676424-only-34-have-mortgage-on-main-residence/

So that means plenty of cash in the system for anyone trading down or moving etc, and people wonder where the cash buyers are coming from.

Also indicates that the vast majority of houses are not relying on any amount to be 'hit' if they are placed up for sale, as there is no mortgage to clear. It would seem that lowering prices therefore would not be a reason why supply would dry up - I'd definitely point to that statistic as a reason why the 'prices can't go down' brigade may not be proved correct.

The Spider

ionapaul wrote: »

Also indicates that the vast majority of houses are not relying on any amount to be 'hit' if they are placed up for sale, as there is no mortgage to clear. It would seem that lowering prices therefore would not be a reason why supply would dry up - I'd definitely point to that statistic as a reason why the 'prices can't go down' brigade may not be proved correct.

They also don't have to sell, I'll give you an example, way back when we were looking for houses in 2012, we looked at one in Glenageary, it was on sale for 380,000 by a widow.

We offered 350,000 and estate agent told us no way she'd sell, her point of view was that in the boom she would have gotten 1.2 million for the house, apartments close by at the time were selling for 500,000, if she had sold then she could have bought one of those and had 700,000 for herself.

Those apartments had dropped in price too of course, but now if she sold the house for 380, the apartments were on sale for 200,000 she would have only had 180,000 for herself, the only reason she was selling was because she found it hard to live in the house after her husband died.

I use that as an example, many people who are potential trader downers will think the same mentally and if the monetary temptation isn't there then they'll stay put.

ionapaul

I agree that people may not sell if the market goes down, but the fact that so many properties in Ireland are mortgage free is something that should be viewed as a factor in why the market can move downwards, it's certainly not a reason to think extra cash is somehow going to come into the market to move it upwards. There's other reasons to think the market will remain buoyant of course!

Kinet1c

The article would provide better information if it contained a breakdown on those ownership percentages for te major cities and then the rest of the country. I'd be inclined to say that there would be a significantly lower percentage of outright ownership in Dublin but again would love to see the specific data.

mcdonut

Quote...
They also don't have to sell, I'll give you an example, way back when we were looking for houses in 2012, we looked at one in Glenageary, it was on sale for 380,000 by a widow.

We offered 350,000 and estate agent told us no way she'd sell, her point of view was that in the boom she would have gotten 1.2 million for the house, apartments close by at the time were selling for 500,000, if she had sold then she could have bought one of those and had 700,000 for herself.

Those apartments had dropped in price too of course, but now if she sold the house for 380, the apartments were on sale for 200,000 she would have only had 180,000 for herself, the only reason she was selling was because she found it hard to live in the house after her husband died.

I use that as an example, many people who are potential trader downers will think the same mentally and if the monetary temptation isn't there then they'll stay put.

Hi The Spider,
So did this house turn up on the property price register,if so what did it sell for?

The Spider

mcdonut wrote: »

Quote...
They also don't have to sell, I'll give you an example, way back when we were looking for houses in 2012, we looked at one in Glenageary, it was on sale for 380,000 by a widow.

We offered 350,000 and estate agent told us no way she'd sell, her point of view was that in the boom she would have gotten 1.2 million for the house, apartments close by at the time were selling for 500,000, if she had sold then she could have bought one of those and had 700,000 for herself.

Those apartments had dropped in price too of course, but now if she sold the house for 380, the apartments were on sale for 200,000 she would have only had 180,000 for herself, the only reason she was selling was because she found it hard to live in the house after her husband died.

I use that as an example, many people who are potential trader downers will think the same mentally and if the monetary temptation isn't there then they'll stay put.

Hi The Spider,
So did this house turn up on the property price register,if so what did it sell for?

Hi just did a search for it there, can't remember the exact address, but it had black door, however plenty of houses sold there in 2012 for under 380, some funny prices as well to be honest.

Villa05

Calls for UK Central Bank to implement the same measures as Ireland
http://www.theguardian.com/money/blog/2015/jan/31/should-we-follow-ireland-tough-line-mortgages

A survey this week found that seven in 10 tenants cite their inability to build up a deposit as one of the biggest blocks to home-ownership – and said they put housing on a par with the NHS when choosing who to vote for. But just making more money available for mortgages – by enabling five times income loans and low deposits – simply makes the problem worse.

The Irish solution is crude, but more likely than ours to bring the property market back towards sanity.

Would agree, where insanity reigns regarding property. Strict measures need to be implemented to protect Banks, Purchasers and taxpayers who get the bill when it all goes wrong

gaius c

ElizKenny wrote: »

There are very few happy people on message boards
Very few who arent experts in whatever subject they are posting in either

Now now, don't be projecting your reasons for posting onto the rest of us.

I'm seeing houses sitting on the market for 3-4 weeks with only offers of 10% plus under asking on them. Whatever is happening, it's definitely very different to this time last year.

Cali_Em

Long time lurker, first time poster here.

After reading quite a few pages of this post, I'm still none the wiser - is there a belief that prices will in fact go down? If so, when? A few people in work were quick off the mark to go back to their banks to reconfirm their AIP structure (apparently CB/banks will honor existing quotes @10% dep. etc.?). Will that hold up?

Also, what impact will this have on the few new developments coming online after April or so?

I believe the CB restriction will be a positive influence on the housing market in time to come, but in the short-term with the supply shortage, it appears unclear what impact it will have.

desertcircus

The Spider wrote: »

Not really two people on 75k each would qualify for 3.5 times income, that really isn't an outrageous salary, problems occur when kids come into. Me personally I'd never go near that even if the bank'd give it to me, firm believer in owing as little as possible.

That's a couple where both are in the top 5% of earners; a house expensive enough to be limited to the top 5% needs to be a more desirable house than 95% of the market.

dearg lady

Purely anecdotal of course, but my e-mail alert on myhome is yielding a lot more results the last few weeks than it ever did before Christmas.
I wonder if more people are selling hoping to get in before price falls

Michael D Not Higgins

dearg lady wrote: »

Purely anecdotal of course, but my e-mail alert on myhome is yielding a lot more results the last few weeks than it ever did before Christmas.
I wonder if more people are selling hoping to get in before price falls

There's a fall in houses on the market every year before Christmas. See the blue line

dearg lady

Michael D Not Higgins wrote: »

There's a fall in houses on the market every year before Christmas. See the blue line

Ah yes, very good point. I only set up the alert in Nov so probably a poor time of year. Still, I am glad to see the e-mail numbers up, as I was feeling quite concerned with how few I was getting!!

fret_wimp2

dearg lady wrote: »

Ah yes, very good point. I only set up the alert in Nov so probably a poor time of year. Still, I am glad to see the e-mail numbers up, as I was feeling quite concerned with how few I was getting!!

How accurate are the daft figures really? from what i have heard their figures are based on the asking price on the site, not the actual sale price which would mean their reported pricings are hugely inflated over reality.

dearg lady

fret_wimp2 wrote: »

How accurate are the daft figures really? from what i have heard their figures are based on the asking price on the site, not the actual sale price which would mean their reported pricings are hugely inflated over reality.

Well in this instance we're just referring to the numbers of properties for sale, not their sales price/asking price

gaius c

Outskirts be dropping.
http://businessetc.thejournal.ie/house-prices-lucan-1927986-Feb2015/

Closer in to Dublin CC, houses that are priced well are getting plenty of viewings if not bids but those are are priced that bit too high have tumbleweed. This year's buyer is much more value conscious than last year's.

My "favourite" EA on the southside is quietly deleting ads and reposting with 3-4% asking price drops to try and hide the drops. Won't work because they are still too high other EA's are pricing much smarter and getting the traffic.

Not surprised by this as I'm looking in this general area, including commuter towns around Lucan.

Went a few viewings in the past 10 days, including two open viewings. A smallish house in need of work <400k had a reasonable number of people nosing around but none were pestering the agent as is often the case if the house is in good nick and well priced. (I think this one was in rough condition and over-priced compared to this time last year).

Two nicer houses >400k had much less interest. One has no offers despite a 30k price drop and the other has an offer 45k below asking which is being considered. This end of the market seems very quiet - the cash is gone and people are seeing less mania closer to Dublin, making it less attractive to seek 'value' in the commuter belt.

Compared to last spring/summer, the winds have definitely changed.