Property Market 2015

handlemaster

gaius c wrote: »

For any area in Dublin, 120k asking is very low. I'm sure the pricing was deliberately set at that low level to drum up interest.

Yea your probably right there

tigershould

From what I've seen there's no let up in the market. I feel the new CBI rules will take a good while to slow things down.

handlemaster

tigershould wrote: »

From what I've seen there's no let up in the market. I feel the new CBI rules will take a good while to slow things down.

Or not at all. I think it will keep the rises more moderate but over all people want to buy.

jimosterberg

tigershould wrote: »

From what I've seen there's no let up in the market. I feel the new CBI rules will take a good while to slow things down.

Seems to me there has been a slow down since before Christmas. Seems to have slowed even more in the run up to the new central bank rules coming in. Estate agents I have talked to have said the same thing.

TheDriver

All depends on location. SCD will see upper prices stabilizing but country towns will definitely tame down.....

P. Breathnach

One of my fidgets is to look at price changes on myhome.ie. In the past few weeks, there have been far more reductions in asking prices in SCD than there have been increases.

I don't keep a record of my observations, but I think that during a good deal of 2014 there were more increases than reductions.

What, if anything, does this tell us? My interpretation is that the market is cooler than the expectations of vendors and their agents.

helimachoptor

One house earlier on my myhome alerts was reduced 50k, needs to come down another 75k before its at market rate tbh

Glenbhoy

handlemaster wrote: »

Or not at all. I think it will keep the rises more moderate but over all people want to buy.

What they want is not as relevant as what they can now afford, and what they can afford has been dramatically reduced, I see no way (assuming no more interference from govt) in which the new rules will not result in lower prices. But I've been wrong before!

seamus

P. Breathnach wrote: »

One of my fidgets is to look at price changes on myhome.ie. In the past few weeks, there have been far more reductions in asking prices in SCD than there have been increases.

I don't keep a record of my observations, but I think that during a good deal of 2014 there were more increases than reductions.

What, if anything, does this tell us? My interpretation is that the market is cooler than the expectations of vendors and their agents.

As someone who has been watching the market like a hawk for about 12 weeks now, there's been a progressive cooling going on, especially in the €350k+ range.

It would seem to a certain extent that the market was quiet through December and January as expected, but a lot of agents were expecting a pick-up in buyers at the beginning of February which hasn't really materialised.
Whereas towards the end of last year virtually every property had some form of offer on it (many had offers after the first viewing), now you're seeing "reasonably" priced properties in nice areas with no offers on them.

I've lost track of the number of properties where the agent told us the vendor rejected an offer under asking at the end of last year, only to have to then drop their price at the start of this year.

I'm not sure if it's a case that lots of people genuinely didn't get mortgage approval before the new rules came in and are locked out of the market, or if buyers are holding back to see what way prices will go.

Bob24

seamus wrote: »

I've lost track of the number of properties where the agent told us the vendor rejected an offer under asking at the end of last year, only to have to then drop their price at the start of this year.

Could also be the agent trying to lure you into thinking you are getting a good deal.
I have came to a stage where I don't believe a single word of what they say.

Barely Hedged

P. Breathnach wrote: »

One of my fidgets is to look at price changes on myhome.ie. In the past few weeks, there have been far more reductions in asking prices in SCD than there have been increases.

I don't keep a record of my observations, but I think that during a good deal of 2014 there were more increases than reductions.

What, if anything, does this tell us? My interpretation is that the market is cooler than the expectations of vendors and their agents.

I posted earlier in this thread:

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Asking prices.

Its in an estate agents interest to publish price drops. It gets peoples attention. Price increases, not so much, unless they want to reduce the number of people ringing their office.

Could you blame some estate agents at the moment. So many places are going for above the asking price that estate agents are not so sure what reaction theyll get back when they advertise a property. Also the seller might say, number 2 down the road went for 200k last month. Stick 10% onto your valuation there for my house.

Its the most biased and useless statistic in drawing conclusions about the market. Its only of use when youre looking at one specific property on a generic estate or road.

Barely Hedged

seamus wrote: »

As someone who has been watching the market like a hawk for about 12 weeks now, there's been a progressive cooling going on, especially in the €350k+ range.

It would seem to a certain extent that the market was quiet through December and January as expected, but a lot of agents were expecting a pick-up in buyers at the beginning of February which hasn't really materialised.
Whereas towards the end of last year virtually every property had some form of offer on it (many had offers after the first viewing), now you're seeing "reasonably" priced properties in nice areas with no offers on them.

I've lost track of the number of properties where the agent told us the vendor rejected an offer under asking at the end of last year, only to have to then drop their price at the start of this year.

I'm not sure if it's a case that lots of people genuinely didn't get mortgage approval before the new rules came in and are locked out of the market, or if buyers are holding back to see what way prices will go.

The market was volatile. Sellers put houses up at the highest price they could imagine, hoping to cash in on the volatility.

The volatility has decreased but theres a difference between decreasing volatility and a falling market/prices. Not that you said that explicitly or implicitly but i think its just worth noting to people who are hoping on the market dropping

P. Breathnach

Bob24 wrote: »

Could also be the agent trying to lure you into thinking you are getting a good deal.
I have came to a stage where I don't believe a single word of what they say.

"Was €350k; now yours for a mere €325k." No, I don't see that as a good selling strategy.

EAs pitch their asking prices to filter buyers. They want to attract people who might be in the market at that price level, and avoid, or at least minimise, wasting time with purchasers who are in a different market segment. So they make an estimate of the price that the property might achieve, and set an asking price by reference to that expectation (sometimes a bit higher, sometimes a bit lower, depending on strategy).

seamus

Yeah, I'm half-and-half on whether it's a deliberate strategy.

On one hand, telling buyers that the vendor rejected an offer and is now looking for less than that offer stinks of desperation from the seller. And you don't want buyers thinking you're desperate.

But on the other hand, EAs want to close as quickly as possible. Nothing more frustrating for an EA than a stubborn seller who won't budge on price and would rather leave the property sit for months unsold.

Probably a good strategy when you're selling is to get friends to go to an open viewing of your property and have a chat to the EA and find out what they're telling viewers behind your back.

gaius c

Bob24 wrote: »

Could also be the agent trying to lure you into thinking you are getting a good deal.
I have came to a stage where I don't believe a single word of what they say.

Last Saturday we got the "I'll be honest with you here" treatment and he stopped straight away when he saw the big smirk on my face.

fret_wimp2

gaius c wrote: »

Last Saturday we got the "I'll be honest with you here" treatment and he stopped straight away when he saw the big smirk on my face.

Made an enquiry today about a property. Asked if they would like to discuss the price, if i offered x (x being asking - 5%)

EA said the price is the price and if i was to offer i better act fast as he has a lot of interest and will have sold in the next few days.

I said thanks for his time and bowed out. besides the EA, who's to say if he was bluffing or legit.

The_Conductor

I'm getting e-mails of price drops on properties in Dublin west every Friday now. I haven't gotten these type e-mails in the last 2-3 years......... There is blood in the water..........

handlemaster

The_Conductor wrote: »

I'm getting e-mails of price drops on properties in Dublin west every Friday now. I haven't gotten these type e-mails in the last 2-3 years......... There is blood in the water..........

care to put up a few links. i havent seen any drops

Barely Hedged

The_Conductor wrote: »

I'm getting e-mails of price drops on properties in Dublin west every Friday now. I haven't gotten these type e-mails in the last 2-3 years......... There is blood in the water..........

Price drops yep, falling market no

ElizKenny

Housing market i always slow this time of year. Its usually a month or so after easter that it starts moving. Slows down again around October/november and stays flat.
If I was buying and not selling id be trying my best to do it during the flat period.
So if you arent buying soon, wait till October/nov again to start looking.
People selling start getting panicky when there is little activity and will be more likely to drop prices or accept lower offers.

jay0109

ElizKenny wrote: »

Housing market i always slow this time of year. Its usually a month or so after easter that it starts moving. Slows down again around October/november and stays flat.
If I was buying and not selling id be trying my best to do it during the flat period.
So if you arent buying soon, wait till October/nov again to start looking.
People selling start getting panicky when there is little activity and will be more likely to drop prices or accept lower offers.

Over 500 hundred houses on view today per Myhome.ie
Thats more than there has been for a long time if I recall correctly

Johngoose

The bottom line is if the banks are more restrictive with their lending practises and the amounts they are willing to give out,the price of houses will tumble.Dublin house prices are going to take a hammering.

SeanSouth

From a SELLERS perspective, I can tell you that most of the tactics mentioned in this thread don't matter a jot to me. I require a certain price for my house. If I get it, that's great. If I don't get it, I wont be moving (selling).............

It really is a case of supply, demand AND price. If prices go up supply will increase and demand will decrease moving towards a market equilibrium
If prices decrease, supply will decrease and demand will go up. This will exacerbate the current situation and is the least plausible scenario in my view.

In the current market there is no room for prices to go down. If prices go down,sellers wont sell and builders wont build. Current supply of housing is way way way below current demand.

Before the latest central bank intervention, there was way too much demand chasing too little supply. What will happen now is that the strongest buyers will mop up the available supply at current prices and this will keep a check on the mad house inflation of recent times.

Price decreases will only occur if two conditions are met :
1) If there are not enough buyers with sufficient deposits available to mop up the current limited supply at current prices.
AND
2) The cost of building a new house and the cost of its site is less than the prevailing market price

When you say you can't sell for less is it because:
- You don't want to
- You need to clear a certain price to clear negative equity
- You need a certain amount to buy another property?

If it's (a) and (b) fair enough. If it's (c) the price of what you want to buy might also fall in a sliding market. In fact, if you are trading up then the gap between what you have and what you want to buy should narrow.

SeanSouth

As a "seasoned campaigner" Let's just say that I would have no interest in dropping my price in such a tight market. If you look at basic demographics, the demand for housing in Ireland is destined to rise in the coming years and there is no apparent coheherent policy to address the supply side. I would say that current prices are on the low side.

When I say that house prices are on the low side. That comment is in relation to my perception of the market (supply and demand) and future supply/demand and has nothing at all to do what I perceive the houses "to be worth"

House Prices in Dublin will continue to rise in the medium term. Absolutely no doubt about that. Any attempt to artificially lower prices through central bank or government policy will just lead to a flurry of foreign "cash" investors arriving in to buy the cheaper houses.

The best indicator of house pricing is to look at house prices in comparable capital cities in EU. House prices in decent parts of Helsinki for example are way above Dublin. A normal professional Finnish family living in a decent neighbourhood of Helsinki is living in a two bed apartment. A luxurious home is a three bed apartment. If you want to live in a modern 3/4 bedroom house in striking distance of Helsinki, you are well into millionaire territory.

El_Dangeroso

SeanSouth wrote: »

As a "seasoned campaigner" Let's just say that I would have no interest in dropping my price in such a tight market. If you look at basic demographics, the demand for housing in Ireland is destined to rise in the coming years and there is no apparent coheherent policy to address the supply side. I would say that current prices are on the low side.

Ireland's basic demographics suggest a fall in the number of people as FTB's in 5 years time. There is a demographic bubble in the age group 30-34, and drops off sharply after that.

If I had a house to sell, I'd sell it this year. ASAP before the CB regs truly start to bite.

P. Breathnach

SeanSouth wrote: »

As a "seasoned campaigner" Let's just say that I would have no interest in dropping my price in such a tight market. If you look at basic demographics, the demand for housing in Ireland is destined to rise in the coming years and there is no apparent coheherent policy to address the supply side. I would say that current prices are on the low side.

When I say that house prices are on the low side. That comment is in relation to my perception of the market (supply and demand) and future supply/demand and has nothing at all to do what I perceive the houses "to be worth"

House Prices in Dublin will continue to rise in the medium term. Absolutely no doubt about that. Any attempt to artificially lower prices through central bank or government policy will just lead to a flurry of foreign "cash" investors arriving in to buy the cheaper houses.

The best indicator of house pricing is to look at house prices in comparable capital cities in EU. House prices in decent parts of Helsinki for example are way above Dublin. A normal professional Finnish family living in a decent neighbourhood of Helsinki is living in a two bed apartment. A luxurious home is a three bed apartment. If you want to live in a modern 3/4 bedroom house in striking distance of Helsinki, you are well into millionaire territory.

You are basing your strategy on your particular analysis of how the market will behave in the short to medium term (an analysis that others might not agree with). You are entitled to do that.

You do recognise, I hope, that you can be classed as a property speculator? And if your analysis is wrong, that you might get your fingers burned?

by the seaside

SeanSouth wrote: »

As a "seasoned campaigner" Let's just say that I would have no interest in dropping my price in such a tight market. If you look at basic demographics, the demand for housing in Ireland is destined to rise in the coming years and there is no apparent coheherent policy to address the supply side. I would say that current prices are on the low side.

When I say that house prices are on the low side. That comment is in relation to my perception of the market (supply and demand) and future supply/demand and has nothing at all to do what I perceive the houses "to be worth"

House Prices in Dublin will continue to rise in the medium term. Absolutely no doubt about that. Any attempt to artificially lower prices through central bank or government policy will just lead to a flurry of foreign "cash" investors arriving in to buy the cheaper houses.

The best indicator of house pricing is to look at house prices in comparable capital cities in EU. House prices in decent parts of Helsinki for example are way above Dublin. A normal professional Finnish family living in a decent neighbourhood of Helsinki is living in a two bed apartment. A luxurious home is a three bed apartment. If you want to live in a modern 3/4 bedroom house in striking distance of Helsinki, you are well into millionaire territory.

Absolutely no doubt? This may end badly.

Rackstar

Looked at a house today. 25 couples viewing. Asking was €195,000 first offer was €225,000.

Why start at €225,000? Put it into the 20% deposit category?

Madness anyway.

P. Breathnach

Rackstar wrote: »

...
Why start at €225,000? Put it into the 20% deposit category?...

The person making the offer might not be a FTB.

In any event, for a FTB, the difference is small: only the excess over €220k will require a 20% deposit.

I think that some people will look at €220k as a psychological ceiling, and any offer over that will remove them from the market for that property.