Property Market 2015

Bob24

flintash wrote: »

this thing i really dont understand! so ,for example couple on minimum wages and one kid cannot get a single penny yet they fully capable to pay same size rent on private accomodation?! i know life is tough and unfair but seriuosly please explain me this as it is in my head for a few years now and i still dont get it. it gotta be an irish thing.

The problem is to know how long they will be able to continue paying in case interest rates increase quite a bit, one or both of them lose their job, or they large incurr unforeseen expenses (let's say it turns out after a year or 2 there is a structural issue with the property they purchased and it costs a few thousands or more to fix it). Also I assume the bank assumes being a owner occupier costs a few hundred euros per months in taxes, management fees, and maintenance cost, which are not expenses they would have had while renting.

I guess during the Celtic tiger (when everyone thought their will always be jobs for everyone and the only way for real estate prices was up) it was seen as ok to lend to that couple, but now the banks are considering the risk differently.

by the seaside

flintash wrote: »

this thing i really dont understand! so ,for example couple on minimum wages and one kid cannot get a single penny yet they fully capable to pay same size rent on private accomodation?! i know life is tough and unfair but seriuosly please explain me this as it is in my head for a few years now and i still dont get it. it gotta be an irish thing.

Bob24 wrote: »

The problem is to know how long they will be able to continue paying in case interest rates increase quite a bit, one or both of them lose their job, or they large incurr unforeseen expenses (let's say it turns out after a year or 2 there is a structural issue with the property they purchased and it costs a few thousands or more to fix it). Also I assume the bank assumes being a owner occupier costs a few hundred euros per months in taxes, management fees, and maintenance cost, which are not expenses they would have had while renting.

I guess during the Celtic tiger (when everyone thought their will always be jobs for everyone and the only way for real estate prices was up) it was seen as ok to lend to that couple, but now the banks are considering the risk differently.

Agree with Bob. The other consideration for a mortgage vs rent is where the risk lies. If the couple can no longer afford to pay the mortgage because one loses a job / falls sick, then the bank takes the hit. If there is an economic downturn, this will affect lots of couples at the same time, so the bank takes the big hit.

The answer for the low wage couple is lower rents and security of tenure, so they can actually have a decent, secure and affordable home for them and their family. But I doubt there is a political will to achieve this, or even to make moves in the right direction.

handlemaster

Allsop auction on now . This property in Ongar sold for 310 K . No lowering of prices in Dublin 15

http://www.allsopspace.ie/auction/lot/31878

gaius c

On a side note, a bloke I work with is married to somebody working in Allsops. Lots of fun & games whenever Jerry Beades & crew decide to pop by their office for tea and a chat.

Bob24

by the seaside wrote: »

The answer for the low wage couple is lower rents and security of tenure, so they can actually have a decent, secure and affordable home for them and their family. But I doubt there is a political will to achieve this, or even to make moves in the right direction.

Exactly, this or a different social model where unemployment benefits are more generous and last longer in case of loss of employment (making that couple a secure borrower again), and/or the government gets heavily involved in the building of new houses to ensure there is large supply (applying downwards pressure on prices). A number of European countries are doing things like this (Scandinavian countries and France come to my mind), but it is obviously costing their taxpayers a lot of money and having other side effects. I can't imagine it happening in Ireland, but I think any politician that promises they will make all people on low income owner occupiers in a sustainable way without resorting to this kind of measures is just lying.

handlemaster

gaius c wrote: »

On a side note, a bloke I work with is married to somebody working in Allsops. Lots of fun & games whenever Jerry Beades & crew decide to pop by their office for tea and a chat.

Whats that ment to mean ?

willbeuptuesday

Just off the phone with an auctioneer in Lucan, I am thinking of selling my house in the Griffeen area. He told me that interest is still very strong in houses in the area and reminded me that, in this area with the new rules people can still get mortgages easily because on
Average 87% of their deposit is at 10% and the remaining 3% is at 15%. So in essence people can get starter homes in Lucan with a deposit of between 11-13%. Have people any clues that this is correct or is this just a sales person doing their job. My reading of the market for what it is worth is that, places like Lucan, Clonee etc.. Will experience a higher demand as places like most of South Dublin are unaffordable for the vast majority of 1st time buyers due to the deposits required to buy there. Anyone have an opinion on this or am I way off. Should I sell now or hold off ?

johnp001

According to article in the IT today Mortgages to the value of €1.3 billion drawn down in Q4, up 49% year-on-year

FTB made up less than half of mortgage transactions in Q4.
Comparing the 7,583 mortgage drawdowns stated in that article with the number of transactions on the PPR for Q4 mortgage drawdowns accounted for less than half of sales in the last quarter.
The less the sale price is above €220k the less the deposit restrictions will affect a FTB so 11%-13% sounds reasonable (without knowing your sale price)
but FTB account for <25% of market according to the above so the CB rules have made your house significantly more expensive in terms of deposit for 75% of buyers.
New daft listings for Dublin as a whole increased 60% for the first 6 weeks this year compared to the same period last year so it seems like a lot of people are deciding not to hold off any longer.
In this environment the choice may be between selling now or holding off for a long time until the deluged market recovers at some unspecified time in the future.

Cuddlesworth

handlemaster wrote: »

Allsop auction on now . This property in Ongar sold for 310 K . No lowering of prices in Dublin 15

http://www.allsopspace.ie/auction/lot/31878

Thats a commercial property?

flintash

thanks to the posters who explained me suck a simple thing, as it looks to me now. live and learn...

gaius c

handlemaster wrote: »

Whats that ment to mean ?

After their well-publicised sabotage of an Allsops auction, they also "visited" the office on Waterloo Road but that one was kept quiet.

Taylor365

I've seen prices of shacks (less than 40sqm) that have been on the market for awhile being put up 20-30k for no apparent reason.

As if that's going to help them sell....

stevedublin

Taylor365 wrote: »

I've seen prices of shacks (less than 40sqm) that have been on the market for awhile being put up 20-30k for no apparent reason.

As if that's going to help them sell....

If they can get the extra money, why wouldn't they increase the price, that's how markets work.

Glenbhoy

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Thats a commercial property?

Let for 18K p.a. so not an awful return at approx 6%. Probably a bit frothy with the ending of the CGT exemption, but presumably the buyer figures that it's better than any other returns available on investments he/she understands.

by the seaside

stevedublin wrote: »

If they can get the extra money, why wouldn't they increase the price, that's how markets work.

Odd that they couldn't sell it for 20 to 30k less.

karenalot

handlemaster wrote: »

Allsop auction on now . This property in Ongar sold for 310 K . No lowering of prices in Dublin 15

allsopspace.ie/auction/lot/31878

Im sure I went to view that same property a few years ago when it came up in a previous Allsop Auction. It was 30k. I hated Ongar so left before stepping inside.

The_Conductor

willbeuptuesday wrote: »

Just off the phone with an auctioneer in Lucan, I am thinking of selling my house in the Griffeen area. He told me that interest is still very strong in houses in the area and reminded me that, in this area with the new rules people can still get mortgages easily because on
Average 87% of their deposit is at 10% and the remaining 3% is at 15%. So in essence people can get starter homes in Lucan with a deposit of between 11-13%. Have people any clues that this is correct or is this just a sales person doing their job. My reading of the market for what it is worth is that, places like Lucan, Clonee etc.. Will experience a higher demand as places like most of South Dublin are unaffordable for the vast majority of 1st time buyers due to the deposits required to buy there. Anyone have an opinion on this or am I way off. Should I sell now or hold off ?

I'm looking in Lucan at the moment.
The spiel you got from the Auctioneer is slimey auctioneer talk- take it with a grain of salt......
I'm on good terms with one of the auctioneers in Lucan (who is helping me with a property for my father-in-law). Supply is still an issue- however, its taking up to twice as long to sell property now as it did last summer- and up to 2 in 3 sales are falling through, resulting in the same properties hitting the market again and again.

Lucan village- and St. Mary's Parish- are high demand- and holding value. Esker/Ballygad etc- are falling in achieved prices. Just looking at recent sums achieved (aka in the last 4 weeks) on propertypriceregister- supports this. Check it out yourself.

Muahahaha

handlemaster wrote: »

Allsop auction on now . This property in Ongar sold for 310 K . No lowering of prices in Dublin 15

http://www.allsopspace.ie/auction/lot/31878

the link is saying that it sold for €165k , not €310k

handlemaster

http://www.allsopspace.ie/auction/lot/31322


good price for seller of over 150k on this two bed.

helimachoptor

helimachoptor wrote: »

bid made, 23% below asking, EA didnt shoot it down immediately but we'll see when he speaks to the vendor

and rejected...

"vendor wants to wait for higher bid"

yes and they'll be waiting just like they've been waiting the last few years..

Bob24

helimachoptor wrote: »

and rejected...

"vendor wants to wait for higher bid"

yes and they'll be waiting just like they've been waiting the last few years..

Sorry to hear that, but as long as they are not delinquent on a mortgage funded by our taxes, I guess it is their right.

helimachoptor

Bob24 wrote: »

Sorry to hear that, but as long as they are not delinquent on a mortgage funded by our taxes, I guess it is their right.

Not surprised, they arent a drain.

May 2012 it was €475K.

We're in no rush so will continue to save to reduce our eventual LTV ratio.

The_Conductor

handlemaster wrote: »

http://www.allsopspace.ie/auction/lot/31322


good price for seller of over 150k on this two bed.

The vendor did ridiculously well on this one- its a D2 BER too........
I'm guessing someone got carried away at the auction..........

homerjay2005

house in our estate going for 595k, just went on the market yesterday.

two other houses went up about 12 months back, both sold within a week for 495k - thats a 20% increase in a year :eek::eek::eek:

Bob24

homerjay2005 wrote: »

house in our estate going for 595k, just went on the market yesterday.

two other houses went up about 12 months back, both sold within a week for 495k - thats a 20% increase in a year :eek::eek::eek:

Sale agreed after just a day?

helimachoptor

homerjay2005 wrote: »

house in our estate going for 595k, just went on the market yesterday.

two other houses went up about 12 months back, both sold within a week for 495k - thats a 20% increase in a year :eek::eek::eek:

Desirable SCD area..

homerjay2005

Bob24 wrote: »

Sale agreed after just a day?

who said that???

last two houses went in 2 weeks.

Bob24

homerjay2005 wrote: »

who said that???

last two houses went in 2 weeks.

Ah OK - who knows if there is a 20% increase then. 595k is what the seller wants ... need to wait and see how much they actually get.

fret_wimp2

A lot of discussion in the thread about how Dublin prices are still much too high and need to come down.

Of course being a potential buyer I agree with this ( surprise surprise!), one thing i would like to get an answer to is how can it be imperially proven that they are "too high" in relation to prices from Period X or compared to another country?

If there are a small percentage of vendors overpricing then those particular properties are priced too high, but when everyone is pricing high and people are still buying, doesnt that just mean that houses cost what they cost in that particular country/region?

Bob24

fret_wimp2 wrote: »

If there are a small percentage of vendors overpricing then those particular properties are priced too high, but when everyone is pricing high and people are still buying, doesnt that just mean that houses cost what they cost in that particular country/region?

I think it really depends on how you define what priced to high means.

If you are saying that if some/most of the offer is meeting demand it means that the property market as a while is correctly priced, yes sure prices are currently not too high. But then using the same definition you could say prices were even more better prices at the top of the boom: houses and apartments were selling like hotcakes for asking prices and more, and in many areas demand was higher than supply.

Another way define overpriced would be to say that a number of factors which are making people pay current prices are temporary and will change in the short term. Things quantity of supply (and what can impact it), quantity of demand, availability of credit, tax incentives, etc then are coming into play.