Property Market 2015

yankinlk

I was selling in 2012, and all i know is every single offer - 100% of them were low, too low. But even so, none of the offers had actually been to the bank to GET funding yet.

When pushed, the buyers never came back, even when the offer was grudgingly accepted - i can only assume the Bank didnt give them finds even at the low price. (or they were simply tire kicking time wasters).

The Spider

Can only go on personal experience, and I had no problems and it was a mortgage by myself, not joint, granted I had well over a third of the price in cash.

by the seaside

The Spider wrote: »

Can only go on personal experience, and I had no problems and it was a mortgage by myself, not joint, granted I had well over a third of the price in cash.

I don't know the answer to this but I would guess that the answer to how easy credit has been vs now would come down to lenders' approaches to lending to more marginal groups such as:

High LTV
High salary multiples
Self employed
Short term contract
Black marks on credit record
Etc.

Anyone know?

MarkAnthony

There is a huge amount of crap out there now, but it was worse in 2012! Some absolute heaps. As bonkers as we all are in Ireland for property one does (usually) expect a roof!

MarkAnthony

by the seaside wrote: »

I don't know the answer to this but I would guess that the answer to how easy credit has been vs now would come down to lenders' approaches to lending to more marginal groups such as:

High LTV
High salary multiples
Self employed
Short term contract
Black marks on credit record
Etc.

Anyone know?

Industry and lender dependant.

score_card

Panda_Turtle wrote: »

Why didn`t everyone buy in late 2011,2012 and early 2013 when the prices were very reasonable? :pac:

no one wants to buy when prices are low ( an auctioneer told me that one time )

the whole country back then was in a state of collective paralysis , the media was feeding the sense of despondency about both house prices and the overall economy

the truth is that as recent as early 2012 ( in dublin ) , what we witnessed was a generational low , people did not realise the golden opportunity which was at their finger tips , by the time its realised that a property market is well under recovery , its usually too late to pick up bargains and the media is nearly always about a year behind the story

score_card

dubrov wrote: »

Look up "Dead cat bounce". It's a fairly common occurrence.

Not that I'm convinced that's what's happening here

dead cat bounces dont last three years plus , the bottom was hit in the south side of dublin in the middle of 2011 and a major corner was turned as soon as the current goverment took office , the change in mood is always subtle in nature at the start of a recovery

this current boom will run for another three years at least

score_card

The Spider wrote: »

Nah, credit was as easy/hard to get then as it is now, I bought in 2012 and had zero problems getting access to credit. The reason people didn't buy was simple herd instinct and that no one else was buying and maybe prices would keep dropping.

Same in the boom everyone was buying and prices were going up everyone was buying everything. There was a huge amount of posts here in 2012/2013 about how prices would keep dropping, but nope bottom's been and gone when will they crash again? Couldn't tell you, but it won't be 2015 that's for sure.

i was going to buy in august 2012 but instead bought shares and then left the idea behind , my capital is up as much but i would have had a much higher income from property

im currently buying a commerical property unit in one of the largest towns in ireland , their are no bargains of any kind left in the major cities if you exclude limerick

fret_wimp2

score_card wrote: »

no one wants to buy when prices are low ( an auctioneer told me that one time )

the whole country back then was in a state of collective paralysis , the media was feeding the sense of despondency about both house prices and the overall economy

the truth is that as recent as early 2012 ( in dublin ) , what we witnessed was a generational low , people did not realise the golden opportunity which was at their finger tips , by the time its realised that a property market is well under recovery , its usually too late to pick up bargains and the media is nearly always about a year behind the story

Some people must have realized. if people didnt start buying in 2012, prices wouldnt have started going up. Would it be more correct to say that the more vocal people (on boards/internet) did not realize... ?


A massive amount of this is down to public mood. When "we" believe we are in a recession, jobs are scarce, we squirrel away money and dont buy, regardless of price.

When we start thinking the bad times are over we become reckless again. We borrow the max the banks will give us not the max we can "afford", spend it on a house, push prices up, wash rinse repeat.

Its the reason a 3 bed standard home is 350k or more in Dublin. households are not all earning 100k and dont have 35k+ deposits but yet asking prices are almost all 350k+ for anything remotely decent. This would indicate people are now feeling at ease and happy to get into serious dept again. Im hoping but not fully expecting that the new lending rules will help control this a little.

Irish people have this need to own a house and when we think times are good, we have to buy. Not buying a house is not thought of as an option. We are a crazy nation and these people who "need" to buy a house, borrowing much more than they can afford, driving prices up are the reason i for one am not buying, and why il hold off indefinitely.

I could be too risk averse for our economy, and il happily rent rather than get in over my head. I dont think the majority feel this way though.

tigershould

There are a few good reasons ("facts") for a slow down or reversal in house price increases such as end of cgt, new LTV/LTI rules.

However, supply has not been addressed as far as I can see and there's plenty of demand.

For this reason, I guess prices will continue to rise this year.

by the seaside

fret_wimp2 wrote: »

Some people must have realized. if people didnt start buying in 2012, prices wouldnt have started going up. Would it be more correct to say that the more vocal people (on boards/internet) did not realize... ?


A massive amount of this is down to public mood. When "we" believe we are in a recession, jobs are scarce, we squirrel away money and dont buy, regardless of price.

When we start thinking the bad times are over we become reckless again. We borrow the max the banks will give us not the max we can "afford", spend it on a house, push prices up, wash rinse repeat.

Its the reason a 3 bed standard home is 350k or more in Dublin. households are not all earning 100k and dont have 35k+ deposits but yet asking prices are almost all 350k+ for anything remotely decent. This would indicate people are now feeling at ease and happy to get into serious dept again. Im hoping but not fully expecting that the new lending rules will help control this a little.

Irish people have this need to own a house and when we think times are good, we have to buy. Not buying a house is not thought of as an option. We are a crazy nation and these people who "need" to buy a house, borrowing much more than they can afford, driving prices up are the reason i for one am not buying, and why il hold off indefinitely.

I could be too risk averse for our economy, and il happily rent rather than get in over my head. I dont think the majority feel this way though.

The problem is a lack of security of tenure for renters. It's not so good when you have kids in particular.

mr_seer

by the seaside wrote: »

I don't know the answer to this but I would guess that the answer to how easy credit has been vs now would come down to lenders' approaches to lending to more marginal groups such as:

High LTV
High salary multiples
Self employed
Short term contract
Black marks on credit record
Etc.

Anyone know?

Underwriting standards had deteriorated sharply during 2014. Banks were allowing much more leeway to people. Backward looking repayment capacity (how much people were spending on rent and savings) was formerly based on stressed interest rates, then this was revised to current rates with a little bit of headroom. Forward looking repayment capacity based on average living expenses etc was still based on stressed repayments. Definitely a loosening of criteria though

mr_seer

tigershould wrote: »

There are a few good reasons ("facts") for a slow down or reversal in house price increases such as end of cgt, new LTV/LTI rules.

However, supply has not been addressed as far as I can see and there's plenty of demand.

For this reason, I guess prices will continue to rise this year.

You are referring to supply of new houses. Supply of existing second hand stock for sale in Dublin has increased considerably in January and February relative to the same period in 2014

by the seaside

mr_seer wrote: »

You are referring to supply of new houses. Supply of existing second hand stock for sale in Dublin has increased considerably in January and February relative to the same period in 2014

Pent up supply, perhaps.

gaius c

by the seaside wrote: »

Pent up supply, perhaps.

Myhome supply for Dublin has just passed 4k for the first time in a long time. Time to sell is also increasing. The smart ones cashed out last year.

tigershould

mr_seer wrote: »

You are referring to supply of new houses. Supply of existing second hand stock for sale in Dublin has increased considerably in January and February relative to the same period in 2014

Yes, I'm predominantly referring to new houses but also to the general poor quality of family homes on sale in county Dublin.

2012 may have been the bottom of the bust, but I've been ready to buy since 2010 and still can't find anything decent for less than half a million. I don't see that changing.

Villa05

score_card wrote: »

no one wants to buy when prices are low ( an auctioneer told me that one time )

the whole country back then was in a state of collective paralysis , the media was feeding the sense of despondency about both house prices and the overall economy

The media in Ireland for the most part never talked down property. Every percentage drop in price was a buying opportunity, because property prices only ever go up was the mantra.

An auctioneer will tell you what s/he thinks you need to hear be it true or false.

Barely Hedged

Villa05 wrote: »

The media in Ireland for the most part never talked down property. Every percentage drop in price was a buying opportunity, because property prices only ever go up was the mantra.

An auctioneer will tell you what s/he thinks you need to hear be it true or false.

Didnt the Independent drop its property supplement/coverage for a number of years and its only returned in the past year or year and a half? Thats hardly promoting property?

All the media coverage was about the troika/banks and the general economic **** storm the country was suffering from which implicitly impacted the property market. The media in the years late 2009 - 2012 were no longer interested in promoting or talking up a property market bar a few opinion pieces. There was bigger economic talking points to cover and there were numerous and successive streams of them.

Barely Hedged

fret_wimp2 wrote: »

Its the reason a 3 bed standard home is 350k or more in Dublin. households are not all earning 100k and dont have 35k+ deposits but yet asking prices are almost all 350k+ for anything remotely decent. This would indicate people are now feeling at ease and happy to get into serious dept again. Im hoping but not fully expecting that the new lending rules will help control this a little.

Remotely decent or your view of what is remotely decent?

All the below for 100k less than what you think is not decent:

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/7-earlsfort-lane-lucan-dublin/3093891

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/84-bulfin-road-inchciore-dublin-8/3094252#map

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/32-willow-wood-park-clonsilla-dublin-15/3076916

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/42-chapel-farm-road-lusk-dublin/3065511

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/51-the-close-kingswood-dublin-24/3048973

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/25-phoenix-manor-blackhorse-ave-dublin-7/2946528

fret_wimp2

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Remotely decent or your view of what is remotely decent?

All the below for 100k less than what you think is not decent:

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/7-earlsfort-lane-lucan-dublin/3093891

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/84-bulfin-road-inchciore-dublin-8/3094252#map

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/32-willow-wood-park-clonsilla-dublin-15/3076916

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/42-chapel-farm-road-lusk-dublin/3065511

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/51-the-close-kingswood-dublin-24/3048973

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/25-phoenix-manor-blackhorse-ave-dublin-7/2946528

I left out the cryteria of less than 1 hour from city in traffic. I admit thats my own cryteria and not an issue for everyone.

On having a 2 second glance at each of those houses, either no BER Rating, at highest a D2 and at lowest a G.

I lived in a D rated apt once and its not somthing i want to do again, so no, i dont rate anything below a C2.

Barely Hedged

fret_wimp2 wrote: »

I left out the cryteria of less than 1 hour from city in traffic. I admit thats my own cryteria and not an issue for everyone.

On having a 2 second glance at each of those houses, either no BER Rating, at highest a D2 and at lowest a G.

I lived in a D rated apt once and its not somthing i want to do again, so no, i dont rate anything below a C2.

I suggest you update your knowledge on the dublin property market before saying theres nothing decent out there < 1 hour in traffic:

Lusk - 24 mins on a train from Connelly

Inchicore - practically in the city

Clonsilla - 25 mins to Connelly

Kingswood - 35 mins on the Luas

A lot of the BER ratings can be massaged with small things that dont really add heat efficiency. Also, this is a relatively new concept in building regulations and the vast majority of 3 bed houses on the market have the low BER ratings you mention.

fret_wimp2

Barely Hedged wrote: »

I suggest you update your knowledge on the dublin property market before saying theres nothing decent out there < 1 hour in traffic:

Lusk - 24 mins on a train from Connelly

Inchicore - practically in the city

Clonsilla - 25 mins to Connelly

Kingswood - 35 mins on the Luas

A lot of the BER ratings can be massaged with small things that dont really add heat efficiency. Also, this is a relatively new concept in building regulations and the vast majority of 3 bed houses on the market have the low BER ratings you mention.

Well that told me.

BER may be relatively new, that doesnt make any of the houses any more efficient or comfortable.

Barely Hedged

fret_wimp2 wrote: »

Well that told me.

BER may be relatively new, that doesnt make any of the houses any more efficient or comfortable.

Not trying to have a go at you but if youre ignoring the blindingly obvious fact that probably > 90% of the 3 bed housing stock in Dublin will have low BER ratings, you'll be a long time looking for a property.

Would you not consider retro fitting?

Bob24

Barely Hedged wrote: »

A lot of the BER ratings can be massaged with small things that dont really add heat efficiency. Also, this is a relatively new concept in building regulations and the vast majority of 3 bed houses on the market have the low BER ratings you mention.

True, a good rating is an indication but not a guarantee that a house will be warm and cheap to head. A bad rating however, is a guarantee that it will be cold and expensive to head.

The Spider

fret_wimp2 wrote: »

Well that told me.

BER may be relatively new, that doesnt make any of the houses any more efficient or comfortable.

You're reaching here, maybe what you mean is that you can't get a house in the area of Dublin you want for less than 350'000, that just means you or anyone on a similar salary can't afford to live there, as has been shown there are properties available in Dublin for well below 350.

Woshy

Our 3 bed semi-detached has a D1 rating and I was surprised how warm it is and how well it retains the heat. I wouldn't be so quick to write off houses purely on the BER rating.

In saying that we viewed a few F/G rated houses and you could immediately tell how cold and damp they were, and we were viewing in early Autumn when the weather was quite mild.

Barely Hedged

The Spider wrote: »

You're reaching here, maybe what you mean is that you can't get a house in the area of Dublin you want for less than 350'000, that just means you or anyone on a similar salary can't afford to live there, as has been shown there are properties available in Dublin for well below 350.

In my experience, a common, unspoken theme in a lot of these threads

P. Breathnach

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Not trying to have a go at you but if youre ignoring the blindingly obvious fact that probably > 90% of the 3 bed housing stock in Dublin will have low BER ratings, you'll be a long time looking for a property.

Would you not consider retro fitting?

The BER report contains advice on how the rating might be improved, with extremely loose indicators on the cost/benefit of each measure. In some cases, a poor BER rating can be much improved at an affordable cost.

I think it a bad idea to rule out a property on BER alone, without giving thought to the possibility of improving it at a reasonable price.

Cuddlesworth

Barely Hedged wrote: »

I suggest you update your knowledge on the dublin property market before saying theres nothing decent out there < 1 hour in traffic:

Lusk - 24 mins on a train from Connelly

I am picking Lusk, since its one I'm familiar with.

Its either a 5-10 minute drive to the station depending on where you live, plus paid for parking. Or a much longer walk. You need to be in the station 5 minutes early at the very minimum, since it wasn't unusual see the train departing early.

Then from Connelly, you need to actually reach your destination. Working on Harcourt street? A light 20 minute walk across Dublin then.

I would be shocked in the average commute into town from Lusk was a hour from door to desk for most people.

Barely Hedged

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

I am picking Lusk, since its one I'm familiar with.

Its either a 5-10 minute drive to the station depending on where you live, plus paid for parking. Or a much longer walk. You need to be in the station 5 minutes early at the very minimum, since it wasn't unusual see the train departing early.

Then from Connelly, you need to actually reach your destination. Working on Harcourt street? A light 20 minute walk across Dublin then.

I would be shocked in the average commute into town from Lusk was a hour from door to desk for most people.

And your comparing the variables outside of the time spent on the train with what - somebody who has a bus stop outside their front door?

You dont like getting off at Connelly - stay on until Tara street. Access to nearly all the offices in D2 within a short walking distance. Five mins walk to Grafton St and Trinity.

You dont like getting off at Connelly or Tara - stay on until Pearse street. Access to nearly all the offices in D2 and close to Stephens Green and Harcourt St

You dont like getting off at Connelly, Tara or Pearse - change for the DART and go to Grand Canal basin.

Im pretty sure ive covered all the major areas of employment in Dublin city centre with that route?