Property Market 2015

slinky2000

Barely Hedged wrote: »

And your comparing the variables outside of the time spent on the train with what - somebody who has a bus stop outside their front door?

You dont like getting off at Connelly - stay on until Tara street. Access to nearly all the offices in D2 within a short walking distance. Five mins walk to Grafton St and Trinity.

You dont like getting off at Connelly or Tara - stay on until Pearse street. Access to nearly all the offices in D2 and close to Stephens Green and Harcourt St

You dont like getting off at Connelly, Tara or Pearse - change for the DART and go to Grand Canal basin.

Im pretty sure ive covered all the major areas of employment in Dublin city centre with that route?

I live in Lusk and work just off O'Connell bridge.

My house door + short drive, to my desk in work = 40min with time to spare at the station.

The 8:10 train from Lusk is only 30min to Tara Street
The 5:15 train from Tara Street is only 30min to Lusk. I'm in the house door before 6pm.

The other trains are max of 40min with the extra stops.

My partner works in Finglas and drives from Lusk, it takes her 40min on a normal day, never mind if there's an accident on the m50!

Bob24

No offence, but not sure I would trust directions from someone who tells me to get off at Connelly station ;-)

Ush1

fret_wimp2 wrote: »

I left out the cryteria of less than 1 hour from city in traffic. I admit thats my own cryteria and not an issue for everyone.

On having a 2 second glance at each of those houses, either no BER Rating, at highest a D2 and at lowest a G.

I lived in a D rated apt once and its not somthing i want to do again, so no, i dont rate anything below a C2.

So you want somewhere within the M50(possibly closer) with a high BER for less than 350k?

The Spider

Ush1 wrote: »

So you want somewhere within the M50(possibly closer) with a high BER for less than 350k?

Would've got close to it price wise in 2012, but the BER would've still been rubbish. In my experience all the mature houses in Dublin aren't that great when it comes to it, however the boat has sailed, time to readjust expectations or forever chase the market.

Cuddlesworth

Barely Hedged wrote: »

And your comparing the variables outside of the time spent on the train with what - somebody who has a bus stop outside their front door?

You dont like getting off at Connelly - stay on until Tara street. Access to nearly all the offices in D2 within a short walking distance. Five mins walk to Grafton St and Trinity.

You dont like getting off at Connelly or Tara - stay on until Pearse street. Access to nearly all the offices in D2 and close to Stephens Green and Harcourt St

You dont like getting off at Connelly, Tara or Pearse - change for the DART and go to Grand Canal basin.

Im pretty sure ive covered all the major areas of employment in Dublin city centre with that route?

Harcourt street, the example I used is a large area of employment. Its 20 minutes there from Tara or Pearse.

How long would it take to travel to finglas via public transport? Leixlip? Sandyford? Citywest? At rush hour on a good day its 30 minutes to the M50.

You buy in Lusk, you severely limit your transport options.

Barely Hedged

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Harcourt street, the example I used is a large area of employment. Its 20 minutes there from Tara or Pearse.

How long would it take to travel to finglas via public transport? Leixlip? Sandyford? Citywest? At rush hour on a good day its 30 minutes to the M50.

You buy in Lusk, you severely limit your transport options.

Harcourt St is a large area of employment as is the IFSC, the offices in Dublin 2 and Grand Canal basement. 3 out of 4 isnt bad.

The person i was replying to wanted to live < 1 hour from the city centre. Ive proven this beyond reasonable doubt. No need for going off on a tangent about Citywest/Sandyford.

The Spider

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Harcourt street, the example I used is a large area of employment. Its 20 minutes there from Tara or Pearse.

How long would it take to travel to finglas via public transport? Leixlip? Sandyford? Citywest? At rush hour on a good day its 30 minutes to the M50.

You buy in Lusk, you severely limit your transport options.

This is a non argument, the point has been proven that you can get into the city centre from Lusk relatively quickly, picking out different areas in the city and then asking how long it takes to get to there is ludicrous, how long does it take to get to Thomas street?

I don't get how you limit your transport options, isn't there a train?

Cuddlesworth

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Harcourt St is a large area of employment as is the IFSC, the offices in Dublin 2 and Grand Canal basement. 3 out of 4 isnt bad.

The person i was replying to wanted to live < 1 hour from the city centre. Ive proven this beyond reasonable doubt. No need for going off on a tangent about Citywest/Sandyford.

Fine, but he didn't state what he considers city center. Its a very large area in total. Connolly, Tara and Pearse can be a considerable distance from a fair portion of that.

The Spider

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Fine, but he didn't state what he considers city center. Its a very large area in total. Connolly, Tara and Pearse can be a considerable distance from a fair portion of that.

Yes but it's a large area for anyone anywhere in Dublin, unless you live bang in the city centre, and many do in apartments etc, but for anyone looking for a 3 bed semi or larger, it usually means somewhere in the suburbs or a commuter town, you'd struggle to get in from foxrock in 40 minutes.

Barely Hedged

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Fine, but he didn't state what he considers city center. Its a very large area in total. Connolly, Tara and Pearse can be a considerable distance from a fair portion of that.

I think youve just answered your own question there. The centre of Dublin city is Trinity College/Grafton St/O'Connell St

mr_seer

The Spider wrote: »

You're reaching here, maybe what you mean is that you can't get a house in the area of Dublin you want for less than 350'000, that just means you or anyone on a similar salary can't afford to live there, as has been shown there are properties available in Dublin for well below 350.

The same argument could easily have been made in 2006. It was nonsense back then as well

MarkAnthony

mr_seer wrote: »

The same argument could easily have been made in 2006. It was nonsense back then as well

Not really, the issues that were happening in 2006 are very different (okay not that different) to what happening now. It's not unreasonable to expect the average couple to be buying a house at the average price of 3.5 x combined income. I think the wife's income was 12K and I was on 26K and got a 225K mortgage in 2006.

As I've said a bazillion times before there is still plenty of Dublin well under this and there always should be some under it and quite a bit over it.

The Spider

mr_seer wrote: »

The same argument could easily have been made in 2006. It was nonsense back then as well

I don't understand your point here, I said there were plenty of available properties in his price range, just not in the areas he maybe wanted.

Is your point that anyone on an average income should be able to buy in any area they choose? I don't even know how in any economy on earth that would work, people with more money will snap up the most desirable areas.

Just as I can't afford a house overlooking the sea on Vico road in Dalkey, much as I'd love to or let's face it even an average 3 bed semi in Ranelagh, many people can't afford a three bed semi in Rathfarnham etc, but could quite easily afford it in Tallaght, or if they chose to a commuter town.

Sorry not everyone can have the same as everyone else, simple fact.

Villa05

Karl Deter had an interesting article on Saturdays irish times showing that Dublins property market has been broken for over 300 years in continuous boom and bust.
He mentioned on Sunday on finucanes radio show that during the boom 1995 to 2006 that Dublin had 150 years of price appreciation concentrated in that period.
Yet people will still believe that the current rises are the correction when the truth is that the falls from 08 to 12 was the correction. This correction was prevented from running it's natural course as we look forward to another 300 years of a broken market in Dublin.

Barely Hedged

Villa05 wrote: »

Karl Deter had an interesting article on Saturdays irish times showing that Dublins property market has been broken for over 300 years in continuous boom and bust.
He mentioned on Sunday on finucanes radio show that during the boom 1995 to 2006 that Dublin had 150 years of price appreciation concentrated in that period.
Yet people will still believe that the current rises are the correction when the truth is that the falls from 08 to 12 was the correction. This correction was prevented from running it's natural course as we look forward to another 300 years of a broken market in Dublin.

In my post yesterday I gave examples of many different houses in Dublin less than €250k. There are plenty out there. If we take the example of a FTB buying a house/apartment for 250k. Stressing the repayments on a 220k mortgage all the way 10% from 4%:

4% 1161
5% 1286
6% 1417
7% 1555
8% 1698
9% 1846
10% 1999

Can you please tell me whats unaffordable about that?

Whats broken about the Dublin market is the participants beliefs as to what they can afford. They all want their ideal house for a monthly repayment that will leave a significant cushion for luxury purchases all while having a large garden, a BER rating of A++++++ and a bus or train stop right outside their front door. In some cases they have woken up to the fact that a lot of people want these exact same things and hence thats why it is competitive out there. What they havnt woken up to and they are sleep walking around in a deluded daze is that there are a lot more people out there earning more money than them. The great argument of average industrial wage gets thrown around so much without the realisation that there are a lot more factors at play once you reach mortgages of the size > 300k.

If you want a red brick period house but cant afford D4 or D6, why not look at Inchicore/Dublin 8/Phibsboro/Drumcondra.

Want a house with a large garden - north county Dublin with its numerous quality rail links into the main employment areas in Dublin.

A further symptom of this is that very few areas in Dublin get regenerated. The only place in recent times that has experienced this is Portobello.

The participants in the Dublin market need to look at options other than where their parents/friends bought if these areas are out of reach.

Barely Hedged

Villa05 wrote: »

Karl Deter had an interesting article on Saturdays irish times showing that Dublins property market has been broken for over 300 years in continuous boom and bust.
He mentioned on Sunday on finucanes radio show that during the boom 1995 to 2006 that Dublin had 150 years of price appreciation concentrated in that period.
Yet people will still believe that the current rises are the correction when the truth is that the falls from 08 to 12 was the correction. This correction was prevented from running it's natural course as we look forward to another 300 years of a broken market in Dublin.

And doing an analysis on the property market for the past three hundred years under the assumption, all else being equal, is one hell of an assumption

gaius c

Villa05 wrote: »

Karl Deter had an interesting article on Saturdays irish times showing that Dublins property market has been broken for over 300 years in continuous boom and bust.
He mentioned on Sunday on finucanes radio show that during the boom 1995 to 2006 that Dublin had 150 years of price appreciation concentrated in that period.
Yet people will still believe that the current rises are the correction when the truth is that the falls from 08 to 12 was the correction. This correction was prevented from running it's natural course as we look forward to another 300 years of a broken market in Dublin.

This bit should be nailed to the foreheads of those who think that property prices always rise in the medium-long term.

The crash in real values from 1906 to 1947 was almost 88 per cent.

desertcircus

gaius c wrote: »

This bit should be nailed to the foreheads of those who think that property prices always rise in the medium-long term.

In fairness, the collapse between 1906 and 1947 was the accompaniment to a massive general strike, a failed violent revolution, a world war, a successful violent revolution, a civil war, a worldwide economic collapse, and a second world war. We'd do well to avoid drawing conclusions about house prices from a period that saw (at a conservative guess) maybe a hundred thousand predominantly young Irish men die in war.

The Spider

gaius c wrote: »

This bit should be nailed to the foreheads of those who think that property prices always rise in the medium-long term.

Eh, no it shouldn't, what happened in Ireland between 1906 and 1947? In 1906 Dublin was the second city in the British Empire that spanned the globe.

In 1947 Ireland was a basket case struggling with independance, not to mention a war of independance and a civil war on top of that you had two world wars destroying the global economy.

Not saying it can't happen again, but if it does property prices are the least of your worries.

/edit Desertcircus bet me to it.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

To be fair 1906 to 1947 were some extraordinary times Globally and here at home. The rising, civil war etc. , two world wars and the collapse of the stock market in 1929. Volatility wouldn't be the word for describing that period.

Edit; Beaten to it twice.

gaius c

mr_seer wrote: »

The same argument could easily have been made in 2006. It was nonsense back then as well

The "be happy with what you can get" line was always the laziest of bull arguments at the very very top of the bubble and it's nonsense because to take it to it's (il)logical conclusion, Denis O'Brien might complain about the paucity of quality stock below the €10 million mark and the response would "aha look at myhome. 99% of the stock there is below that mark".

The issue is that the value for money is appalling. I had reason to be looking at property in the Paris suburbs last week (possible work relocation-not happening now) and the agent was showing me some absolutely lovely properties in really nice areas on the outskirts of Paris for money that wouldn't buy me a 2.5 bed house in Firhouse here.

Oh and those houses are properly insulated as standard. There's none of this €300k to buy a BER G house and then spend another €50k getting it up to standard nonsense.

gaius c

desertcircus wrote: »

In fairness, the collapse between 1906 and 1947 was the accompaniment to a massive general strike, a failed violent revolution, a world war, a successful violent revolution, a civil war, a worldwide economic collapse, and a second world war. We'd do well to avoid drawing conclusions about house prices from a period that saw (at a conservative guess) maybe a hundred thousand predominantly young Irish men die in war.

Or how about the drop post-act of union that saw former mansions become sub-divided tenements?

The point is that external events can cause calamitous instability but they are not unusual. In fact, they are quite common. Those claiming otherwise need to let go of their signed portrait of Francis Fukuyama and start looking at things outside this country and asking why our land prices are interstellar compared to all the other countries in western Europe.

Barely Hedged

gaius c wrote: »

The "be happy with what you can get" line was always the laziest of bull arguments at the very very top of the bubble and it's nonsense because to take it to it's (il)logical conclusion, Denis O'Brien might complain about the paucity of quality stock below the €10 million mark and the response would "aha look at myhome. 99% of the stock there is below that mark".

The issue is that the value for money is appalling. I had reason to be looking at property in the Paris suburbs last week (possible work relocation-not happening now) and the agent was showing me some absolutely lovely properties in really nice areas on the outskirts of Paris for money that wouldn't buy me a 2.5 bed house in Firhouse here.

Oh and those houses are properly insulated as standard. There's none of this €300k to buy a BER G house and then spend another €50k getting it up to standard nonsense.

And theres some really nice areas of Dublin that people overlook because of the afore mention snobbery/delusion.

You were looking at Paris with an objective view on transport links and buildings but im sure the same exists in Paris as it does in Dublin about post code snobbery. Of all places, i can guarantee it exists with Parisians.

Although this does require work http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/39-north-circular-road-north-circular-road-dublin-7/2991931, how much do you think it would be worth in D4/D6? If you were a Parisian moving to Dublin you'd say look at the great road its on, 5 mins to the largest city parkland in Europe, 10 mins cycle to Dublin city centre, Drumcondra and Phibsboro are close by and think about the unbelievable house you could make it into.

Objectivity can go a long way in a property search

Barely Hedged

gaius c wrote: »

Or how about the drop post-act of union that saw former mansions become sub-divided tenements?

The point is that external events can cause calamitous instability but they are not unusual. In fact, they are quite common. Those claiming otherwise need to let go of their signed portrait of Francis Fukuyama and start looking at things outside this country and asking why our land prices are interstellar compared to all the other countries in western Europe.

And if something like that occurred it would only impact you and your financial interests directly?

It would impact the entire economy at large and the least of your worries would be the amount you paid for your 3 bed in Firhouse.

You should repost your past two comments in a different thread entitled Nostradamus

gaius c

Barely Hedged wrote: »

And theres some really nice areas of Dublin that people overlook because of the afore mention snobbery/delusion.

You were looking at Paris with an objective view on transport links and buildings but im sure the same exists in Paris as it does in Dublin about post code snobbery. Of all places, i can guarantee it exists with Parisians.

Although this does require work http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/39-north-circular-road-north-circular-road-dublin-7/2991931, how much do you think it would be worth in D4/D6? If you were a Parisian moving to Dublin you'd say look at the great road its on, 5 mins to the largest city parkland in Europe, 10 mins cycle to Dublin city centre, Drumcondra and Phibsboro are close by and think about the unbelievable house you could make it into.

Objectivity can go a long way in a property search

I know that area quite well. It's "pre-63 land". The property you linked to is boarded up with steel. You did note that there are only two pictures? On that basis, I would think that €400k odd is rather a lot of money to be paying for what is effectively a site with added demolition costs.
Re neighbours, snobbery isn't really the issue. It's more that the area is mostly owned by slumlord landlords who are not maintaining their properties properly. It's a terrible shame because the location is good but the area has been let go to ruin.
I'm very objective. How about you?

By way of comparison, the areas we were looking in Paris are broadly equivalent with Skerries or Greystones but cheaper than Firhouse. Oh and they were on a main RER line direct into the city. Kind of says it all I think.

gaius c

Barely Hedged wrote: »

And if something like that occurred it would only impact you and your financial interests directly?

It would impact the entire economy at large and the least of your worries would be the amount you paid for your 3 bed in Firhouse.

You should repost your past two comments in a different thread entitled Nostradamus

You're missing the point. The kind of stability we've had for the last 60 years has been the exception, not the norm and those advocating mortgaging to the hilt should be aware of that.

Barely Hedged

gaius c wrote: »

I know that area quite well. It's "pre-63 land". The property you linked to is boarded up with steel. You did note that there are only two pictures? On that basis, I would think that €400k odd is rather a lot of money to be paying for what is effectively a site with added demolition costs.
Re neighbours, snobbery isn't really the issue. It's more that the area is mostly owned by slumlord landlords who are not maintaining their properties properly. It's a terrible shame because the location is good but the area has been let go to ruin.
I'm very objective. How about you?

By way of comparison, the areas we were looking in Paris are broadly equivalent with Skerries or Greystones but cheaper than Firhouse. Oh and they were on a main RER line direct into the city. Kind of says it all I think.

I qualified it by saying it required work and by posing the question of how much it would cost in Dublin 6. Ranelagh was majority flat land up until the late 80's and a good part of the 90's but people who couldn't afford D4 bought here. All I'm pointing out is that areas like this become popular for the reasons I described in my original post.

I also wasn't saying you could afford it merely that it was an example of exaggerated pricing differences between locations and post codes.

Barely Hedged

gaius c wrote: »

You're missing the point. The kind of stability we've had for the last 60 years has been the exception, not the norm and those advocating mortgaging to the hilt should be aware of that.

Greater European integration is one of the reasons I can confidently talk about European future stability.

To be honest, using these points in a property forum as a caveat to house prices in Firhouse bring say 50k above what you're willing to pay for them is ludicrous

The Spider

You may as well talk about the possibility of an asteroid strike, or a new global pandemic, or an invasion by another country, sure all possibilities, but property prices and mortgages will be the last thing on your mind.

As for Paris prices being cheaper maybe that's because there's a much higher chance of a German invasion, it's happened twice in the last century. :P

gaius c

Barely Hedged wrote: »

I qualified it by saying it required work and by posing the question of how much it would cost in Dublin 6. Ranelagh was majority flat land up until the late 80's and a good part of the 90's but people who couldn't afford D4 bought here. All I'm pointing out is that areas like this become popular for the reasons I described in my original post.

I also wasn't saying you could afford it merely that it was an example of exaggerated pricing differences between locations and post codes.

By the time you've spent all the money doing it up to "Ranelagh standard", would you really have saved money on what you would have spent on the Ranelagh house in the first place?

And then you're left with a long wait for all of Ranelagh's amenities to come to the North Circular Road area.