Property Market 2015

Barely Hedged

yankinlk wrote: »

i actually am not sure if the last two posters are being sarcastic?

I agree that in the last boom suburbanization was a disaster of epic proportions. Ghost estates, unplanned communities, deckland etc... but people moving into the city - closer to amenities?

It was sarcastic on my part to highlight the previous statements of this poster

Villa05

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Didnt the Independent drop its property supplement/coverage for a number of years and its only returned in the past year or year and a half? Thats hardly promoting property?

All the media coverage was about the troika/banks and the general economic **** storm the country was suffering from which implicitly impacted the property market. The media in the years late 2009 - 2012 were no longer interested in promoting or talking up a property market bar a few opinion pieces. There was bigger economic talking points to cover and there were numerous and successive streams of them.

Surely you have better example than the Independent - the Joseph Goebbels of Irish property

Barely Hedged

Villa05 wrote: »

Surely you have better example than the Independent - the Joseph Goebbels of Irish property

What would you call somebody that makes a point that can't be backed up or supported. I'd say delusional?

mr_seer

Barely Hedged wrote: »

What would you call somebody that makes a point that can't be backed up or supported. I'd say delusional?

What would you call people pimping the same pro property paddynomics that brought the country to its knees in the first place? I would say delusional but I don't think it adequately describes it

Barely Hedged

mr_seer wrote: »

What would you call people pimping the same pro property paddynomics that brought the country to its knees in the first place? I would say delusional but I don't think it adequately describes it

Care to reply to any of the posts I've called you up on that contain vague and uninformed information.

Surely the definition of delusion or detachment from the realities of a debate.

While I'm at it, care to explain what paddynomics are and how my posts are an example of it. With specifics please as this is where all your arguements fall apart

gaius c

yankinlk wrote: »

No it doesnt. Early adopters get homes cheaper... but as the gentrification continues, the prices go up until eventually the original residents cant afford to live there anymore.

I think it's fair to say that the NCR area that was being discussed is most definitely not at the end point on the road to gentrification.

gaius c

I really hate fisking but this is getting ridiculous so here goes...

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Of those three houses youve sent on.

Firstly, they all require a significant amount of investment > 200k.

They require less investment than the shell with steel boarded windows you posted earlier and you estimated that one as needing €200-250k so you're saying that these houses which are actually somewhat habitable need the same amount of money spent on them?

So compare the houses on their sale prices as opposed to proposing a completely false and disingenuous point that for "for only a little more". In your last example its 925 - 425 which is 500k. When is 500k "only a little more"?

Actually we're using your figures here. We both agreed that the NCR house is effectively a site with added demolition costs and you proposed that it would take up to €250k to make it liveable bringing the cost of the property up to €700k. And that's not far off the houses linked, which actually do already have access to the amenities of Ranelagh.

Secondly only the last is of comparable size in sqm terms. Thats the most basic factor in how to value a property.

Still quite some way off the €2 million you claimed though, isn't it?

How is my response to somebody saying there was nothing decent for less than 250k relevant? I was simply illustrating that at even unrealistic interest rates it was decent and affordable.

You think a near doubling of mortgage repayments is decent and affordable?

yankinlk

gaius c wrote: »

I think it's fair to say that the NCR area that was being discussed is most definitely not at the end point on the road to gentrification.

I suppose that entirely depends on wether yer a gent or not? Breakfast roll or eggs benedict?

gaius c

yankinlk wrote: »

I suppose that entirely depends on wether yer a gent or not? Breakfast roll or eggs benedict?

Seeing as BH was referring to Ranelagh, I think it's safe to assume he is thinking eggs benedict.

Watching the gentrification process happen in D8 has been fascinating but from experience (US), gentrification "tides" can ebb as well as flow. And it's not pretty for the pioneers of the process when that happens.

brownbeard

...And so it begins? ...or a blip?

http://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2015/#.VO2vF2OEdRE

Property prices fall 1.4% in January

The_Conductor

gaius c wrote: »

Seeing as BH was referring to Ranelagh, I think it's safe to assume he is thinking eggs benedict.

Watching the gentrification process happen in D8 has been fascinating but from experience (US), gentrification "tides" can ebb as well as flow. And it's not pretty for the pioneers of the process when that happens.

Big time...... Think of Atlantic city, Detroit- and other failed experiments. Some states in the US are in big trouble- think of New Jersey- and some of their experiments like Camden.......

Bob24

brownbeard wrote: »

...And so it begins? ...or a blip?

http://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2015/#.VO2vF2OEdRE

Property prices fall 1.4% in January

January also saw a drop compared to the previous month in 2014, 2013, 2012, and 2011.

So while I very much hope a decline is coming, I wouldn't read too much into this (although the drop this year is twice as much as the previous 2 years ... always good to take).

handlemaster

Indo saying prices in Dublin down 2% in janunary

Bob24

IT article - "Property prices suffer biggest monthly fall in three years":

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/property-prices-suffer-biggest-monthly-fall-in-three-years-1.2116903

Mr. Incognito

Bob24 wrote: »

January also saw a drop compared to the previous month in 2014, 2013, 2012, and 2011.

So while I very much hope a decline is coming, I wouldn't read too much into this (although the drop this year is twice as much as the previous 2 years ... always good to take).

The CGT Holiday Cash purchasers are gone and the banks aren't lending.

Property prices are only going one way this year and that's down.

seamus

handlemaster wrote: »

Indo saying prices in Dublin down 2% in janunary

Driven entirely by house prices; apartments actually saw a rise in January.

As said above, January has always been a dipping month. This one has dipped slightly more, but not enough to draw any firm conclusions. If we continue to see >= 1% dips through Feb & March, and no increase in April, then there's a good chance we're starting to see a decreasing trend.

brownbeard

Perhaps, but interesting considering the price register has been showing a downward trend for Dublin since August and one always lags the other;

http://propertypriceregisterireland.com/graphs/?action=search&type=county&id=dublin

Mr.McLovin

Mr. Incognito wrote: »

The CGT Holiday Cash purchasers are gone and the banks aren't lending.

Property prices are only going one way this year and that's down.

I reckon the last of the 4 times plus approvals panicking will counter balance this until year end, I think your looking at stagnation at best until 2015 and you still cant trust noonan and co to come up with something in the mean time

by the seaside

Mr.McLovin wrote: »

I reckon the last of the 4 times plus approvals panicking will counter balance this until year end, I think your looking at stagnation at best until 2015 and you still cant trust noonan and co to come up with something in the mean time

If this happens, it will be interesting. These buyers represent a finite 'reservoir' being drained and not replaced. So when they are gone, the new reality of credit availability may create quite a downward pressure.

johnp001

Mr.McLovin wrote: »

I reckon the last of the 4 times plus approvals panicking will counter balance this until year end, I think your looking at stagnation at best until 2015 and you still cant trust noonan and co to come up with something in the mean time

Sellers could also panic as the number of those with 4x+ approvals dwindles. I can't imagine many old approvals will be valid beyond Q2.
It remains to be seen what will be the attitude of banks to actually allowing draw down on these approvals since the new rules came into force. Seeing a lot of previously sale agreed falling through in my local area.

seamus

Mr.McLovin wrote: »

I reckon the last of the 4 times plus approvals panicking will counter balance this until year end, I think your looking at stagnation at best until 2015 and you still cant trust noonan and co to come up with something in the mean time

I think the outstanding approvals will only impact the first half of the year.

We've encountered what are clearly panicking bidders when bidding on houses, who've gone way above what the property would typically go for, but it's clear they've decided they're getting it at any cost because they have to.

superman28

If you consider 50% of all purchases last year were cash.. and last year the ending of the CGT exemption together with the new restrictive lending critera for FTB and investors, note: this is the largest monthly drop since 2012..

but assuming some cash buyers have for some reason waited until this year to purchase a property (missing the massive 33% tax free CGT incentive)... it still begs the question what about the rest of us. (in Dublin)

Average house price in Dublin = 269k
Average income = 35k * 2 = 70
Max Loan from bank for joint mortgage = 70*3.5 = 245k

Not to mention a massive deposit requirement.

Irish house prices are extremely volitile as we have seen from the last 15 years, but nobody seems to panic if they increase 24% in 12 months,, its only if they decrease will we see reality set in..

MayBea

Bob24 wrote: »

IT article - "Property prices suffer biggest monthly fall in three years":

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/property-prices-suffer-biggest-monthly-fall-in-three-years-1.2116903

It would be interesting to look at this month's figures to understand the trend. Being more of a pessimist on this topic, I personally don't believe we're going to see a decrease in the first 6 months of 2015..

Sala

Have just heard from someone with an official loan offer being withdrawn as the new rules come in. Circumstances are specific in that it issued for a property that they were gazumped on, but their AIP seems to have lapsed with it also. Interesting

Mr.McLovin

seamus wrote: »

I think the outstanding approvals will only impact the first half of the year.

We've encountered what are clearly panicking bidders when bidding on houses, who've gone way above what the property would typically go for, but it's clear they've decided they're getting it at any cost because they have to.

Some of these banks have been giving approval for 10 months so it may sneak into the second half also the reluctance to actually believe prices can drop again will be hard for vendors to swallow this year, they've been told frequently in our national media to expect close 10% rises this year.

It'll be interesting to say the least!

Mr.McLovin

johnp001 wrote: »

Seeing a lot of previously sale agreed falling through in my local area.

I've also noticed a few of these and from what I hear is some cases it was a lack of understanding that their AIP actually meant something, if it hasn't been to the underwriters before the 9th of February your playing by the new rules!

seamus

Mr.McLovin wrote: »

Some of these banks have been giving approval for 10 months so it may sneak into the second half also the reluctance to actually believe prices can drop again will be hard for vendors to swallow this year, they've been told frequently in our national media to expect close 10% rises this year.

The 10 months being offered by PTSB was based on four months credit approval, at the end of which you must apply for approval on a selected property.

I'm not sure what happens if you get gazumped before signing contracts, but I suspect PTSB will pull the approval completely at that stage.

But yeah, interesting times ahead.

farrerg

Mr.McLovin wrote: »

Some of these banks have been giving approval for 10 months so it may sneak into the second half also the reluctance to actually believe prices can drop again will be hard for vendors to swallow this year, they've been told frequently in our national media to expect close 10% rises this year.

It'll be interesting to say the least!

Some of the ads are saying 10 month approvals but this includes something like 4 months at loan offer stage i.e. deposit paid, valuation completed etc. So really, the AIP element is just the standard 6 months that the rest of the banks are doing

I'd say a lot of people think they have AIP at the old rules, but will be unpleasantly surprised when they go back to the bank to be told that because there is documentation missing and it hasn't been past an underwriter, it's essentially worthless

Bob24

farrerg wrote: »

I'd say a lot of people think they have AIP at the old rules, but will be unpleasantly surprised when they go back to the bank to be told that because there is documentation missing and it hasn't been past an underwriter, it's essentially worthless

I got my first AIP recently. There are a few conditions and a short list of documents that will be needed to actually get the mortgage. Are you saying that even if all the conditions listed on the AIP are fulfilled, it would be common for bank to decline a full mortgage approval at a later stage.

Not worried about my own situation as I fit the new rules anyway, but if AIPs are as worthless as you are mentioning - what purpose do they serve?

farrerg

Bob24 wrote: »

I got my first AIP recently. There are a few conditions and a short list of documents that will be needed to actually get the mortgage. Are you saying that even if all the conditions listed on the AIP are fulfilled, it would be common for bank to decline a full mortgage approval at a later stage.

Not worried about my own situation as I have the 20% deposit anyway, but if AIPa is as worthless as you are mentioning - what is the point in having them?

I'd think it depends on the institution and whether it has been seen by an underwriter. If it's recent, you'd hope that it would stand up as they would have known these changes were coming.

But I know previously (and it may have changed) that AIP's were just handed out by staff within the branch, based on the calculators they had and with a list of docs that they would need to be provided with to process to the next stage. If the calculators changed, or there was something on the ICB / docs that didn't stack up or they didn't like, the original AIP meant nothing