Property Market 2015

Millem

mr_seer wrote: »

It really depends on the price bracket you are shopping in. I am considering making an offer on 2 houses, both of which have been on the market for months without a single offer. The market has gone very quiet according to EAs and anecdotally I can tell you that viewings I have been to in the last few months have been very quiet

Well for us it was bonkers, we were looking at 3 beds or 2 beds with potential in Blackrock and surrounding areas, housing estates (close to green luas and m50) that I would of never ever even considered to live in (too many houses) went over their asking prices and out of our budget. I orginally thought the EAs were lieing.
Any dng houses that I enquired or bid on went way over....castle were the same. I found sherry fitz had higher asking prices to begin with. We ended up having to look at houses below our budget as we knew they would go within our budget.
Two of my friends bought in a brand new development (south county dublin) early this year, I recently saw on myhome their style houses are asking over €175k than they paid that is just insane.

Sala

I haven't been looking seriously but my enquiries have found some where bidding is over asking and some without a single bid in months. CB regulation, end of CGT exemption and hopefully some more stock will stabilize the market.

I don't think approval in principal is worth the paper it's written on if the CB rules are implemented so I would expect people bidding and being unable to close in the early part of the year ( if the rules come in as planned). I don't know what effect that will have on prices though

Millem

Sala wrote: »

I haven't been looking seriously but my enquiries have found some where bidding is over asking and some without a single bid in months. CB regulation, end of CGT exemption and hopefully some more stock will stabilize the market.

I don't think approval in principal is worth the paper it's written on if the CB rules are implemented so I would expect people bidding and being unable to close in the early part of the year ( if the rules come in as planned). I don't know what effect that will have on prices though

How do you know they were only approval in principal? From our own situation with AIB it was very very easy to get the mortgage so I am guessing it was the same for a lot of people. I applied for a mortgage in 2012 and this time round was a completely difference experience, I felt it was almost like take a pick of any figure. We asked for more money more than once, what stopped us going even higher was the deposit but they would of given us more.

In relation to the rules we were told our mortgage approval is there until June 2015 regardless of any CB changes. After June we would need to reapply and if the changes are in they would affect us.

Sala

Maybe that's your bank policy I haven't applied so I don't know. But on the property pin one person said UB issued a letter saying it was subject to 20% deposit already, another said their AIP was subject to modification depending in rules.

Also I would think if the CB says mortgages need to be subject to x y and z the bank will have to pay heed to that between the AIP and actual application

The Spider

Prices upwards and onwards for 2015, commuter belt picks up like you wouldn't believe in the next year.

My prediction let's see how it holds.

Millem

Sala wrote: »

Maybe that's your bank policy I haven't applied so I don't know. But on the property pin one person said UB issued a letter saying it was subject to 20% deposit already, another said their AIP was subject to modification depending in rules.

Also I would think if the CB says mortgages need to be subject to x y and z the bank will have to pay heed to that between the AIP and actual application

I can only tell you what AIB have written to us and said. Our full approval runs out on the 6th June, the approval in principal letter had April on it.
A lot of people seem to be getting mortgages with KBC as they have apparently a low interest rate.

We are both in the public sector on scales salaries but bizarrely they asked for my OHs cv when we asked for more money it reminded me of the boom days when they approved us for over €700k at 22 and 23 years of age :eek:

In relation to house prices I think they will increase there is still a lot of money out there. I would also say rents will rise

Sala

The Spider wrote: »

Prices upwards and onwards for 2015, commuter belt picks up like you wouldn't believe in the next year.

My prediction let's see how it holds.

I think sometime between march and August prices will fall in dublin. How much I don't know.

delthedriver

How long is a piece of string.........................................?

There are so many variables involved.....

Gazing into the Crystal Ball, I predict Dublin and halo counties, House prices to rise by 5%.

Dublin Rentals to increase by 10%,

Cork , Limerick , Galway, house prices to increase by 10%

Rents to increase by 10% also.

All other counties house prices and rentals , no change!

Folks it is my best guess, Paddy Power may give you better figures.

If oil prices continue to fall there may be a ripple in world economies in 2015, who knows?

Wishing everyone a very healthy 2015 !:)

who_ru

some folks on here should apply for a job with the indo - very similar types of predictions for property.

The_Conductor

Delthedriver - Oil prices have firmed and increased by almost 20% this week alone- so your thoughts on oil prices may be out of kilter with all of this......... Of course- this volatility is on the back of highly irregular international events- and you could have a complete unwinding of it on Monday. Volatility though- is not in anyone's interests.......

Ibec are forecasting private sector pay rises of an average of 2% for 2015- and the ESRI are forecasting an inflation rate of 2% for the Irish economy.

All of the figures seem wildly at odds with one another- sitting down and crunching numbers is only giving me a headache- there is nothing to support the current prices particularly in the Dublin area- sales or rental prices- they are both totally out of kilter with fundamentals.

A new interesting revenue source for the government- is a return to punitive inheritance taxes. Lowering the tax free threshold to 225,000 has gotten remakably little coverage anywhere.

The potential for a big upset in the Irish property market again- keeps getting bigger and bigger by the day..........

murphaph

The_Conductor wrote: »

I have a gross marginal rate of tax of over 60%- and two young children whose childcare bill alone eats up most of my net pay (not that I regret them for a moment)- so I'm with you on this. Our taxation system here has to be one of the most regressive on the planet. There is something seriously wrong- when you'd be significantly better off on social welfare- than in gainful employment.........

Yup. Ireland does its level best to encourage our underclass to have more and more children but disincentivises decent working people from doing so.

In Berlin we pay (on decent salaries) a grand total of 160 a month for full time childcare for our 2 year old and that includes breakfast, lunch and snack. That reduces to 23 a month once he turns 3 (just his food basically).

Ireland needs to seriously consider the repercussions of an ever growing underclass and a shrinking contributing class. It is a ticking time bomb.

The Spider

who_ru wrote: »

some folks on here should apply for a job with the indo - very similar types of predictions for property.

I'm going to bookmark this and I'm going to haul it out at various times In the year as prices continue to rise, and everyone is talking about the fundamentals.

The property market at the moment is based on supply and sentiment!

The_Conductor

The Spider wrote: »

I'm going to bookmark this and I'm going to haul it out at various times In the year as prices continue to rise, and everyone is talking about the fundamentals.

The property market at the moment is based on supply and sentiment!

And what about the availability of finance- and the tax treatment of property? These two factors are increasing in importance exponentially.

who_ru

The Spider wrote: »

I'm going to bookmark this and I'm going to haul it out at various times In the year as prices continue to rise, and everyone is talking about the fundamentals.

The property market at the moment is based on supply and sentiment!

but not on the number of transactions eh, which are still very very low historically.

but shure just ignore that.

as well as a host of other factors........

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/latest-news/working-parents-need-to-be-earning-30000-just-to-cover-childcare-costs-30879215.html

The Spider

The_Conductor wrote: »

And what about the availability of finance- and the tax treatment of property? These two factors are increasing in importance exponentially.

Look, supply in Dublin is non existant and the only ones who are going to be buying there in the future are going to be the wealthy, like it or not Dublin is heading the way of London, or any other western capital, where the vast majority of people commute to work.

There's no architects, developers won't build without profit, all the tradesmen have left the country.

There essentially isn't a building industry anymore, so limited supply, limited transactions in Dublin and high prices plus high rents.

What is so hard to understand about the above?

Villa05

The Spider wrote: »

I'm going to bookmark this and I'm going to haul it out at various times In the year as prices continue to rise, and everyone is talking about the fundamentals.

The property market at the moment is based on supply and sentiment!

Just like your other 700+ posts

The_Conductor

Its localised- they can't sell houses in some parts of Dublin- there are hundreds of vacant properties in North County Dublin- that no-one wants. The issue is the city centre, South Co. Dublin and a few select areas of the suburbs.

Transactions are going up in volume- and the length to sell property is increasing rapidly- estate agents are actually scared again- which means they have to work to earn their money- in most areas.

So- unless you're looking for property in South Co. Dublin- or a few other high demand areas- you're actually doing pretty ok.

As for people not wanting to commute- companies are actively seeking premises in locations other that the city centres at this stage- office space is seriously in constraint- some unusual candidates are looking at moving to Co. Meath and some other satellite areas- to avail of space- something they can't get in Dublin.

Don't get me wrong- some areas are probably going to continue growing strongly in Dublin- however, its going to be very localised- and the mere lack of supply elsewhere- is not an indication that prices will go up. Supply- is just one part of the equation- there are a myriad of other factors at play.

The Spider

Villa05 wrote: »

Just like your other 700+ posts

Yep and I've been so right, and you've been so wrong.

But who knows maybe we'll find fifty thousand houses under a rock in Dublin?

Or maybe we'll just import a whole building industry?

Or maybe the economy will completely crash and we'll all lose our jobs?

The_Conductor

No personalising your posts- and no sniping.
This is a one and only warning.

Mongfinder General

3 beds in Citywest, Balbriggan, Darndale, Clondalkin, Ballyfermot all headed north of 300k. I wouldn't put an animal in these places. Please tell me I'm wrong in my analysis?

handlemaster

Mongfinder General wrote: »

3 beds in Citywest, Balbriggan, Darndale, Clondalkin, Ballyfermot all headed north of 300k. I wouldn't put an animal in these places. Please tell me I'm wrong in my analysis?

Just a tad dramatic there. Some of these areas have nice areas also.

dearg lady

Mongfinder General wrote: »

3 beds in Citywest, Balbriggan, Darndale, Clondalkin, Ballyfermot all headed north of 300k. I wouldn't put an animal in these places. Please tell me I'm wrong in my analysis?

Just out of interest, I searched these areas on myhome, of the 98 listed, 60 are <200k, and the rest are between 200 and 300k

Villa05

The Spider wrote: »

Or maybe we'll just import a whole building industry?

Or maybe the economy will completely crash and we'll all lose our jobs?

Well we supposedly built the us, uk and australia

The economy crashed bcos of high house prices before and will again,

Mongfinder General

dearg lady wrote: »

Just out of interest, I searched these areas on myhome, of the 98 listed, 60 are <200k, and the rest are between 200 and 300k

but if double digit rates of increase continue then prices will be 300k plus. It would only take a couple of years at15 - 20% to make it happen. I live in one of these hell holes. I was counting on paying my mortgage down below my equity (in negative equity now) and then moving somewhere civilised. Looks like there's no escape...

who_ru

The Spider wrote: »

Look, supply in Dublin is non existant and the only ones who are going to be buying there in the future are going to be the wealthy, like it or not Dublin is heading the way of London, or any other western capital, where the vast majority of people commute to work.

There's no architects, developers won't build without profit, all the tradesmen have left the country.

There essentially isn't a building industry anymore, so limited supply, limited transactions in Dublin and high prices plus high rents.

What is so hard to understand about the above?

none of the bold text is true.

Idioteque

Mongfinder General wrote: »

but if double digit rates of increase continue then prices will be 300k plus. It would only take a couple of years at15 - 20% to make it happen. I live in one of these hell holes. I was counting on paying my mortgage down below my equity (in negative equity now) and then moving somewhere civilised. Looks like there's no escape...

But have the double digit rate increases you talk of been in these areas? Or are you taking the South County Dublin specific area rate increases and applying them to these areas?

Mongfinder General

Idioteque wrote: »

But have the double digit rate increases you talk of been in these areas? Or are you taking the South County Dublin specific area rate increases and applying them to these areas?

Yes, it would appear so. Houses across the road were 200k a year ago. Now looking for 235k.

handlemaster

Mongfinder General wrote: »

Yes, it would appear so. Houses across the road were 200k a year ago. Now looking for 235k.

What price do they need to be for you to be out of NQ

Mongfinder General

handlemaster wrote: »

What price do they need to be for you to be out of NQ

At this exact point in time 320k.

handlemaster

Mongfinder General wrote: »

At this exact point in time 320k.

Unlikely to see growth of 50% over next few years to cover that but in the interving timebperiod the principal will be decreasing