Property Market 2015

helimachoptor

Would take on a project but in scd they are still ridiculously priced

MayBea

Sala wrote: »

A fixer upper might be the way to go for me I think, especially when the CB rules kick in and people have less money to do them up as it's all going into their deposit

This might be the strategy, we've just about 15% deposit and not in a position to buy a G rated "project".

helimachoptor wrote:

Would take on a project but in scd they are still ridiculously priced

I second that. We viewed the house in D16
The asking was 425,000k initially, then reduced to 400k - and I have no idea how much did it sell for. The house itself was in an awful state - no radiators whatsoever, no kitchen, pest problems etc. The ballpark figure from the builder was 70k+ to make it habitable.

by the seaside

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Define affordable

Define 'define'.

helimachoptor

Was one on clonkeen road for 475, didn't see it but ea said it required a lot of work, in that case buy for 425 and spend 100k renovating, but ended up going sale agreed at asking, however that was a few months ago.

Would have no issue doing the essentials, windows, Central heating and insulation and then cosmetic bits over time

Bigcheeze

[Deleted User] wrote: »

530k? Sweet Child of Mine! I grew up in a house very like this but not in this area. Most people remove that glass panel partition thingy between hall and not many would keep that original fireplace. Judging by the age of the wooden box around the fuse board, the wiring will probably need attention soon enough.

I had to do a double take myself. Sorohan builders seem to have built that house all over Dublin in the seventies.

flintash

MayBea wrote:

It might be a time to start a WIW thread on boards the same way as on thepropertypin 

what WIW means?

Rackstar

flintash wrote: »

what WIW means?

What It's Worth at a guess

ElizKenny

helimachoptor wrote: »

Was one on clonkeen road for 475, didn't see it but ea said it required a lot of work, in that case buy for 425 and spend 100k renovating, but ended up going sale agreed at asking, however that was a few months ago.

Would have no issue doing the essentials, windows, Central heating and insulation and then cosmetic bits over time

I think you might be talking about the house we bought recently.
House actually looked worse than it was. We spent 30k doing it up and its like new now. Worst thing was that all the outside walls had to have insulation backed plasterboard and then skimmed and painted.
Must get the BER sorted, but it should be a good C now.
Thats all im gonna say in case people come knocking on my door

mickman

mel123 wrote: »

Sorry for the stupid question, but when ye are referring to 'cash' buyers, what exactly do you mean? Cash buyer as in ready to rock with a mortgage and deposit, or are these people buying a house for the full amount of asking price in 'cash'?

Cash = no mortgage

Barely Hedged

by the seaside wrote: »

Define 'define'.

What?

Bob24

Just read an article about the global real estate market: http://immobilier.lefigaro.fr/article/le-marche-immobilier-mondial-s-oriente-a-la-baisse_c69c9e9e-cbee-11e4-8f16-be1e660e3888/

In French but the chart at the bottom giving the price increase by country is easy to get and interesting. Guess who is toping it? :-)

helimachoptor

ElizKenny wrote: »

I think you might be talking about the house we bought recently.
House actually looked worse than it was. We spent 30k doing it up and its like new now. Worst thing was that all the outside walls had to have insulation backed plasterboard and then skimmed and painted.
Must get the BER sorted, but it should be a good C now.
Thats all im gonna say in case people come knocking on my door

It's still up, EA on the hill in stillorgan?

Barely Hedged

Bob24 wrote: »

Just read an article about the global real estate market: http://immobilier.lefigaro.fr/article/le-marche-immobilier-mondial-s-oriente-a-la-baisse_c69c9e9e-cbee-11e4-8f16-be1e660e3888/

In French but the chart at the bottom giving the price increase by country is easy to get and interesting. Guess who is toping it? :-)

The point could also be made that there is a strong correlation between a strong economy and residential house prices.

Greece, Ukraine and Slovenia are at the other end of the scale.

The graph provides no real insight

Bob24

Barely Hedged wrote: »

The point could also be made that there is a strong correlation between a strong economy and residential house prices.

Greece, Ukraine and Slovenia are at the other end of the scale.

The graph provides no real insight

-4.5% in China ... yes economic growth has an impact but not always (especially if the market has been tempered with before and/or it is recovering from a bubble).


Sure the graph itself doesn't explain what is happening ... but looking at the top and the bottom is a good way to quickly spot countries where something is happening.

Barely Hedged

Bob24 wrote: »

-4.5% in China ...


Sure the graph itself doesn't explain what is happening ... but is a good way to quickly spot countries where something is happening.

Of the two anomalies you picked Chinese property prices. Bit more research is involved on your part before you develop that point.

Barely Hedged

MayBea wrote: »

It might be a time to start a WIW thread on boards the same way as on thepropertypin

As from the personal house hunting experience I see the market behaving oddly. We took part in two bidding wars so far in 2015 - with 6 bidders the first time (left it with two bidders remaining, price rise +7%), the second one with 4 other bidders, left it at +10% rise.
Viewed this house last week out of curiosity http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/33-wesley-lawns-dundrum-dublin-16/3090696, 3 bidders and the current price is 530k.
At the same time seeing drops (that's usually old worn out properties), however a friend went sale agreed on a nice house in Shankill very recently with the chunky 8% price drop.

I remember being on that website once or twice and i saw that thread. People in 2011, 2012 saying they confidently wouldnt buy a 3/4 bed in Ranelagh until it dropped to around 300k. These were houses that had asking prices of 600k at the time. I know beauty is in the eye of the beholder but i had to laugh at the majority of contributors on that at the time and now.

Good idea though as a lot of people are throwing around vague terms like unaffordable etc but when pressed on a number they would pay, run for the hills.

The_Conductor

Bob24 wrote: »

-4.5% in China ... yes economic growth has an impact but not always (especially if the market has been tempered with before and/or it is recovering from a bubble).


Sure the graph itself doesn't explain what is happening ... but looking at the top and the bottom is a good way to quickly spot countries where something is happening.

Errr- China's growth rate is almost at its lowest level in almost 20 years- and its leaders are terrified. The state of the Chinese economy- is one of the reasons that many metals and other primary materials- have fallen so much in price. China has also removed restrictions on trading in certain commodities (such as rare earth metals) that they previously felt they needed to shepherd for personal use.......

India's growth rate- despite its ridiculous regulatory regimes (and yes- its regimes- each Indian state has its own rules)- has now overtaken China's rate of growth- which is quite remarkable.

The Chinese authorities are terrified-and are desperately trying to move a more significant portion of their economy into the services sector. Real estate- both commercial and residential- is falling- especially commercial developments on the outskirts of the larger cities (their inner city developments seem to be doing ok).

Good write-up on all of this in the Economist from a few weeks ago- I can't link to it here- because its behind a paywall- but China featured on the cover- look it up.........

Bob24

The_Conductor wrote: »

Errr- China's growth rate is almost at its lowest level in almost 20 years- and its leaders are terrified. The state of the Chinese economy- is one of the reasons that many metals and other primary materials- have fallen so much in price. China has also removed restrictions on trading in certain commodities (such as rare earth metals) that they previously felt they needed to shepherd for personal use.......

India's growth rate- despite its ridiculous regulatory regimes (and yes- its regimes- each Indian state has its own rules)- has now overtaken China's rate of growth- which is quite remarkable.

The Chinese authorities are terrified-and are desperately trying to move a more significant portion of their economy into the services sector. Real estate- both commercial and residential- is falling- especially commercial developments on the outskirts of the larger cities (their inner city developments seem to be doing ok).

Good write-up on all of this in the Economist from a few weeks ago- I can't link to it here- because its behind a paywall- but China featured on the cover- look it up.........

Actually this week the Economist is mostly optimistic about China: http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21646204-asias-dominance-manufacturing-will-endure-will-make-development-harder-others-made

The property market there is going down because there was a crazy bubble and the ghost estates we have in Ireland are more like ghost cities in China.

Sure economic growth is not as strong as it was, but what country can sustain that much growth for over two decades? Plus there has been demands from the population to trade a bit of their GDP for better environmental protection.

I am not saying it is all great, but I am not too worried for China .. they need to improve productivity, make their industry cleaner, and rely less on exports; and they are investing to do so. And in any case they do have a supply chain nobody can compete with to produce high volume of goods at cheap prices.

Villa05

Barely Hedged wrote:

I remember being on that website once or twice and i saw that thread. People in 2011, 2012 saying they confidently wouldnt buy a 3/4 bed in Ranelagh until it dropped to around 300k. These were houses that had asking prices of 600k at the time. I know beauty is in the eye of the beholder but i had to laugh at the majority of contributors on that at the time and now.

That website called the bottom in Dublin/Galway in 2012. It's contributers are amongst the best with well thought out posts backed up with data.

Barely Hedged

Villa05 wrote: »

That website called the bottom in Dublin/Galway in 2012. It's contributers are amongst the best with well thought out posts backed up with data.

Having bought two x two beds in Dublin 2 in May 12 and Feb 13 for a sizeable fraction of what theyre worth now due to the reversal and successive improvement of the major economic indicators at the time and now, id like to think i did also.

Doesnt give me carte blanche reason to brag about it now but some of the crap i read on that website in 2012 and 2013 was astounding. The ignorance of the majority on it to improving economic indicators at the time was breath taking

ElizKenny

helimachoptor wrote: »

It's still up, EA on the hill in stillorgan?

No ours is southpark end.

The Spider

Villa05 wrote: »

That website called the bottom in Dublin/Galway in 2012. It's contributers are amongst the best with well thought out posts backed up with data.

Bottom was called here too, but it was ignored ridiculed and generally replaced with wish fulfilment.

Piriz

The Spider wrote: »

Bottom was called here too, but it was ignored ridiculed and generally replaced with wish fulfilment.

in fairness, some of the rationale for it not being the bottom was sound logic, it was government intervention eg. CGT exemption, banking inaction on repossessions etc. that provided an artificial floor.

Piriz

Piriz wrote: »

in fairness, some of the rationale for it not being the bottom was sound logic, it was government intervention eg. CGT exemption, banking inaction on repossessions etc. that provided an artificial floor.

Indeed, plus mortgage interest relief (MIR). Now the interventions are pushing in the other direction:
MIR - gone
CGT exemption - gone
Repossessions - supposed cranking up (although personally I'm doubtful about the impact of this one)
Plus Central Bank lending restrictions

Alas, supply hasn't changed much yet but building/construction trade is as busy as it has been for several years.

When things are going up it feel like it will keep going (hence bubbles form); when a crash is under way it feels like prices will never turn positive (hence many of us - me included - not foreseeing the rebound from 2012. Things still felt fairly sh1t even if there were actually 'green shoots'.

Piriz

Whats your prediction for the next 12 months Ixelles?

Can I go for 2015, full year?

I go for drops Q1 (on a headstart there!); slight uptick Q2 (90% AIPs still out there); steady Q3; negative Q4 (full impact of CB rules is felt)
= Slightly negative or flat for the year

Piriz

Id say that is fair... I'm hoping for significant drops in 2016, I'm in the 300k market in Dublin 7 most likely...no value there at the moment...

Villa05

The Spider wrote: »

Bottom was called here too, but it was ignored ridiculed and generally replaced with wish fulfilment.

Out of interest can you link the post that called the bottom here

ElizKenny

I dont think the government will keep their hands out should price growth start going negative.
It will be a see-saw of intervention after intervention.

Bob24

ElizKenny wrote: »

I dont think the government will keep their hands out should price growth start going negative.
It will be a see-saw of intervention after intervention.

Same here.

I expect political pressure to have the central bank back off with mortgage restrictions, and possibly tax incentives for investors and/or borrowers.