Property Market 2015

hfallada

Bob24 wrote: »

Same here.

I expect political pressure to have the central bank back off with mortgage restrictions, and possibly tax incentives for investors and/or borrowers.

The CB are independent of the Government. We have Patrick Honohan openly not agreeing with the Government on mortgage restrictions. Why would the central bank agree with Governments that come and go. When if an official in the CB, makes poor decisions. Its the official that will take the responsibility not the Government minister that is now gone.

Tax incentives are gone for good. Expect CGT cuts before sections introduced again

Fair point ElizK. No government wants to go into an election with falling house prices. They make a lot of voters feel theoretically poorer. Some people see house prices as a bellweather for the economy in general. Sad face.

That said, the Govt seemed very keen on mortgage insurance but haven't followed through. The idea is not dead but if it were feasible/easy it would have been done by now.

Bonkers though it may be a 'help to buy' scheme like the one in the UK couldn't be completely ruled out if prices are showing serious dips ahead of the budget.

But I can't see the (independent) Central Bank rowing back on the mortgage restrictions. They proposed something that was very unpopular with politicians, banks, builders, estate agents and a big chunk of the media. They mostly withstood the onslaught and delivered regulations with only mild watering down. Why would they ditch the rules now?

I made my own guess above about how the market might go (i.e. stable-ish for now; falling in second half of year) but I'm 100% in the market tomorrow if the right house comes up at the right price. Nobody knows what the future holds. I might think that waiting until next year could pan out well but we have pre-school kids and want to know where we'll live so that we can nail down school places.

Anyone else have predictions for 2015?
We can look back and laugh at ourselves/each other next year

ElizKenny

Deleted User wrote: »

But I can't see the (independent) Central Bank rowing back on the mortgage restrictions. They proposed something that was very unpopular with politicians, banks, builders, estate agents and a big chunk of the media. They mostly withstood the onslaught and delivered regulations with only mild watering down. Why would they ditch the rules now?

The rules were brought in to cool down the market. The majority see that as a good thing, so the opposition to it was weak.
The problem will be if it doesnt just cool down and slow the rises, but reverses them.
Falling property prices, despite how much a lot of people want them, are not good for an economy.

So if the CB are seen to have caused a problem with the economy, it wont be too long before they are put into a corner and told that they made a mess of it, so step out and leave it to someone else now.

Anyway, wait and watch for all the methods of getting around the deposit rules the banks have been gathering up.

Bob24

ElizKenny wrote: »

So if the CB are seen to have caused a problem with the economy, it wont be too long before they are put into a corner and told that they made a mess of it, so step out and leave it to someone else now.

Agreed there ... Being independent doesn't mean being fully protected from pressures from other public entities or private lobbies.

gaius c

Bob24 wrote: »

Agreed there ... Being independent doesn't mean being fully protected from pressures from other public entities or private lobbies.

The CB answer to the ECB and they won't care a whit if house prices fall.

ElizKenny

ElizKenny wrote: »

The rules were brought in to cool down the market. The majority see that as a good thing, so the opposition to it was weak.
The problem will be if it doesnt just cool down and slow the rises, but reverses them.
Falling property prices, despite how much a lot of people want them, are not good for an economy.

So if the CB are seen to have caused a problem with the economy, it wont be too long before they are put into a corner and told that they made a mess of it, so step out and leave it to someone else now.

Anyway, wait and watch for all the methods of getting around the deposit rules the banks have been gathering up.

Do you work in a bank? :rolleyes:

ElizKenny

Deleted User wrote: »

Do you work in a bank? :rolleyes:

I do. And you wouldnt believe the stunts they pull every day to get around whatever rule they want to get around and help out mates etc. They have no conscience at all. But i just work in one. Well, until my current contract is up anyway.

And anyway it will have nothing to do with banks applying pressure. It will be businesses and the public who will put the CB in their box if the tide turns.

The desired outcome is for nice slow growth in house prices. If it goes negative watch what happens with "rule" makers. Watch what happens spending in other areas of the economy for that matter.

Barely Hedged

ElizKenny wrote: »

I do. And you wouldnt believe the stunts they pull every day to get around whatever rule they want to get around and help out mates etc. They have no conscience at all. But i just work in one. Well, until my current contract is up anyway.

And anyway it will have nothing to do with banks applying pressure. It will be businesses and the public who will put the CB in their box if the tide turns.

The desired outcome is for nice slow growth in house prices. If it goes negative watch what happens with "rule" makers. Watch what happens spending in other areas of the economy for that matter.

Any specific examples of what some bank employees do for their mates?

duffman13

ElizKenny wrote: »

I do. And you wouldnt believe the stunts they pull every day to get around whatever rule they want to get around and help out mates etc. They have no conscience at all. But i just work in one. Well, until my current contract is up anyway.

And anyway it will have nothing to do with banks applying pressure. It will be businesses and the public who will put the CB in their box if the tide turns.

The desired outcome is for nice slow growth in house prices. If it goes negative watch what happens with "rule" makers. Watch what happens spending in other areas of the economy for that matter.

Having had reasonably senior position within a bank, I have to say your allusion to sorting mates out is completely false unless there is a team of people doing it as almost everything is checked and audited now.

If you believe something untoward is going on then you have an obligation to report it to the regulator and your employer.

The_Conductor

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Any specific examples of what some bank employees do for their mates?

Don't go there. We have had enough trouble from 'naming and shaming' type threads in the past. This is a moderator instruction- do not go there.

ElizKenny

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Any specific examples of what some bank employees do for their mates?

No

The_Morrigan

Elizkenny, please don't make any further posts about banks and their staff breaking rules.

ElizKenny

I never said they break any rules.
In fact i never said they do anything illegal either.

The_Conductor

ElizKenny wrote: »

I never said they break any rules.
In fact i never said they do anything illegal either.

Mention it once again- and you will have a posting holiday from this forum- without any additional warnings.

John_Rambo

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Having bought two x two beds in Dublin 2 in May 12 and Feb 13 for a sizeable fraction of what theyre worth now due to the reversal and successive improvement of the major economic indicators at the time and now, id like to think i did also.

Doesnt give me carte blanche reason to brag about it now but some of the crap i read on that website in 2012 and 2013 was astounding. The ignorance of the majority on it to improving economic indicators at the time was breath taking

Fair play to you. I don't see it as bragging, but I do admire your jump. How many people told you you were an idiot!?

helimachoptor

helimachoptor wrote: »

yeah agree, myself and the wife both works. Good jobs, a lot of savings built up after buying in 2007 (now rented).

While we could afford to buy at the level houses are at now in SCD, i dont want to put us in that position.

We are going to see this house
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/64-foxrock-avenue-foxrock-dublin-18/2717652

Regardless of the view if its "real foxrock", spacious, nice garden, nice area.

EA expects it to go for above asking despite it being on the market since June last year..

Needs updating and likely double glazing as the BER is awful

offer of 575 apparently..

Sam the Sham

ElizKenny wrote: »

Falling property prices, despite how much a lot of people want them, are not good for an economy.

This one seems to have slipped through. You'll have to explain how ordinary punters spending ever greater percentages of their take-home pay on housing is good for all the rest of the businesses scrambling for a piece of what's left.

The Spider

Villa05 wrote: »

Out of interest can you link the post that called the bottom here

Not quite 2012, I'm sure if I looked I'd find it, however it's about two years ago, not too long after the bottom, and the same people here were singing the same song about dead cat bounces and repossessions pushing down house prices.

Here we are in 2015 and did any of what they said would happen come to pass? The answer is a big fat NO. The people who predicted rises and a recovery have been bang on the money, the guys predicting drops are continually moving imaginary goalposts to suit their narrative, not once has any of those guys come out and said they were wrong.

It's been two years and still the same guff about if this happens or that happens then prices will drop, they've been proven comprehensively wrong over everything they've said and anyone who listened to their predictions is in a worse place now.

Anyway rant over and I present for your leisure the dead cat thread from two years ago, and you'll see the same people making the same wrong arguments.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056926700&page=2

Bob24

Sam the Sham wrote: »

This one seems to have slipped through. You'll have to explain how ordinary punters spending ever greater percentages of their take-home pay on housing is good for all the rest of the businesses scrambling for a piece of what's left.

I think he has a point. It prices fail property owners feel poorer and possibly go into negative equity. This probably makes them spend less and increases the possibility of defaults.

But definitly agreed passed the adjustment period lower prices are better for everyone except people involved in the property business.

gaius c

Sam the Sham wrote: »

This one seems to have slipped through. You'll have to explain how ordinary punters spending ever greater percentages of their take-home pay on housing is good for all the rest of the businesses scrambling for a piece of what's left.

If you're a property owner, ever rising cost of accommodation is a very very good thing (except when you have to pay LPT on it).

If you're fresh out of college working on an internship, it might not be as delightful but sure, you don't vote so who cares.

Archaeoliz

I'd be really interested to see how the Bank's mortgage valuations are coming in once offers are accepted. Anyone have any anecdotal experience of this as if there is panic to get AIPs into full offers and draw down mortgages, are panic prices still getting adequate valuations?

seamus

Archaeoliz wrote: »

I'd be really interested to see how the Bank's mortgage valuations are coming in once offers are accepted. Anyone have any anecdotal experience of this as if there is panic to get AIPs into full offers and draw down mortgages, are panic prices still getting adequate valuations?

I doubt you'd see much going on there tbh. The valuer has a very specific and simple job, basically to ensure that the house is as described and that the bank isn't fronting a €500k mortgage for a 2-bed 1930s terraced house in Dolphin's barn.

If the buyer is paying 10% over the odds for a property, the valuer will just sign off on it.

crisco10

seamus wrote: »

I doubt you'd see much going on there tbh. The valuer has a very specific and simple job, basically to ensure that the house is as described and that the bank isn't fronting a €500k mortgage for a 2-bed 1930s terraced house in Dolphin's barn.

If the buyer is paying 10% over the odds for a property, the valuer will just sign off on it.

Isn't it just standard practice for the Valuers report to just say the property is worth the Sale Agreed price?

Sort of negates the value of a valuation report if so...

Gumbo

crisco10 wrote: »

Isn't it just standard practice for the Valuers report to just say the property is worth the Sale Agreed price?

Sort of negates the value of a valuation report if so...

It depends. There are two types of surveys. One done by the bank to ensure the address being mortgaged is what the applicant says it is. It confirms its location, how it's built and the services runnin to and from it.

The applicant can get their own value done on it too and that will most likely produce a report stating whether the sale price is appropriate or not.

We have recently gone from AIP to signing contracts with UB and their valued did not mention anything about the sale price.

farrerg

crisco10 wrote: »

Isn't it just standard practice for the Valuers report to just say the property is worth the Sale Agreed price?

Sort of negates the value of a valuation report if so...

Unless the sale agreed price is absolute madness, there won't be an issue. When prices were crashing, valuers wouldn't sign off on the old asking prices (generally at draw down for properties sold off plans far in advance) because they were no longer remotely realistic.
In a stable enough market, if you've agreed an asking price, chances are someone else would pay something similar

What could the government do to fuel property prices if they start to dip?

The UK government has just announced a special savings scheme for first-time buyers.

It's like an SSIA just for FTBs. For every 1k you save, you get 250 quid (up to a maximum of 12k saved by you which would give you 3k from the government towards your deposit.

First-time buyers will get a handout from government to help them reach the first rung of the property ladder, under a new “Help to Buy Isa”.

The savings accounts, which will become available at high-street banks and building societies this autumn, will offer savers a £50 bonus for every £200 they save towards a deposit. The state will pay out a maximum of £3,000, on savings of £12,000.

If prices are sluggish later in the year or if the Central Bank's rules are perceived to be affected FTBs struggling to 'get on the ladder', it's not hard to imagine the Irish government pulling this kind of trick.

Crazy. It fuels prices, pushing them further out of reach of those at the bottom of the income ladder, and people who already have cash or whose parents have cash can easily avail of £3,000 in free money. All in the name of helping the little guy.

Michael D Not Higgins

Deleted User wrote: »

What could the government do to fuel property prices if they start to dip?

The UK government has just announced a special savings scheme for first-time buyers.

It's like an SSIA just for FTBs. For every 1k you save, you get 250 quid (up to a maximum of 12k saved by you which would give you 3k from the government towards your deposit.



If prices are sluggish later in the year or if the Central Bank's rules are perceived to be affected FTBs struggling to 'get on the ladder', it's not hard to imagine the Irish government pulling this kind of trick.

Crazy. It fuels prices, pushing them further out of reach of those at the bottom of the income ladder, and people who already have cash or whose parents have cash can easily avail of £3,000 in free money. All in the name of helping the little guy.

The ISA is limited to £200/month so doesn't mature until 2020.

Ah gotcha - thanks.

Buy a 'starter home' in the UK and sell it in 2020

UK already has a Help to Buy scheme that allows people to buy with a 5% deposit.

seamus

Deleted User wrote: »

UK already has a Help to Buy scheme that allows people to buy with a 5% deposit.

Oh god, they'll be getting ideas now.

What makes that worse is the fact that it's only available on new builds. If that scheme was in existence here, we'd be back to 2006 building levels.