Property Market 2015

Michael D Not Higgins

Deleted User wrote: »

UK already has a Help to Buy scheme that allows people to buy with a 5% deposit.

This has its own issues, like repaying the government's equity stake at current market value, so there's no interest charged on the equity (for first 5 years in England, with a not too bad 1.75% after although increasing in line with inflation per annum) but if house prices have risen 10% you have to pay that much extra.

It's also only for new builds so likely to limit the search areas. Only certain mortgage providers are signed up and I don't know how the interest rates compare to regular mortgages (probably not as favourable).

seamus

seamus wrote: »

Oh god, they'll be getting ideas now.

What makes that worse is the fact that it's only available on new builds. If that scheme was in existence here, we'd be back to 2006 building levels.

Also only on houses worth less than £250k or £450k in London.

jmayo

The Spider wrote: »

Not quite 2012, I'm sure if I looked I'd find it, however it's about two years ago, not too long after the bottom, and the same people here were singing the same song about dead cat bounces and repossessions pushing down house prices.

Here we are in 2015 and did any of what they said would happen come to pass? The answer is a big fat NO. The people who predicted rises and a recovery have been bang on the money, the guys predicting drops are continually moving imaginary goalposts to suit their narrative, not once has any of those guys come out and said they were wrong.

It's been two years and still the same guff about if this happens or that happens then prices will drop, they've been proven comprehensively wrong over everything they've said and anyone who listened to their predictions is in a worse place now.

Anyway rant over and I present for your leisure the dead cat thread from two years ago, and you'll see the same people making the same wrong arguments.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056926700&page=2

Perhaps some of us thought that all those mortgages in arrears, especially ones in arrears for years, would result in some meaningful repossessions and not still be parked years later.
Even the buy to lets are not really being touched.

Perhaps we thought that Ireland would actually conform to the normal rules of capitalism and borrowing/lending rules where if you don't pay for something you lose it.

More fools us I guess.

I unlike lots of people, probably yourself included, will admit I have been wrong.
The can is still being kicked down the road.
Hell we even have ex developers fighting through the courts to protect the houses they don't even live in and we have muppets like the new land(lords) league backing them up.

Banks are only now beginning to move because they see prices having increased so they reckon they can make less of a loss.
But the market has slowed again so maybe it that will put a brake on the few repossessions they are trying to carry out.
Added to that the government haven't the balls to stand up to the vested interests like the debt welchers in the IMHO, new beginnings, new land(lords) league, etc.

Looking at figures from central bank it just displays how dysfunctional our housing market is and how much bad debt is out there.
Can anyone name any other single country where they have such a high percentage of mortgages in arrears and especially in long term arrears ?

Arrears ...


Repossessions ...



These are courtesy of TheJackal over on thepropertypin and are lifted from Central Bank report.
http://www.centralbank.ie/polstats/stats/mortgagearrears/Documents/2014q4_ie_mortgage_arrears_statistics.pdf

Just remember spider you may get out of jail with your investment apartment, but it will be your kids, if you have any, that will be paying the price for it.

The lesson I have learnt from this is to either a) tell my kids to get to fook out of this country when they get a chance or b) stay if you get the chance borrow as much as possible and then stick it to the poor sods who didn't.

gaius c

Deleted User wrote: »

What could the government do to fuel property prices if they start to dip?

The UK government has just announced a special savings scheme for first-time buyers.

It's like an SSIA just for FTBs. For every 1k you save, you get 250 quid (up to a maximum of 12k saved by you which would give you 3k from the government towards your deposit.



If prices are sluggish later in the year or if the Central Bank's rules are perceived to be affected FTBs struggling to 'get on the ladder', it's not hard to imagine the Irish government pulling this kind of trick.

Crazy. It fuels prices, pushing them further out of reach of those at the bottom of the income ladder, and people who already have cash or whose parents have cash can easily avail of £3,000 in free money. All in the name of helping the little guy.

If that's their scheme, it'll actually dampen the market in the short term because it will turn today's FTB's into tomorrow's.

gaius c

Time for an update.



http://i.imgur.com/Pnw5GHQ.png



http://i.imgur.com/cm3ufgT.png

Looks to me like Dublin peaked in July/August last year and a little later in Cork/Galway. Limerick looks too "bouncy" to draw any conclusions from. GDA looks to have topped in Q3 2014 as well.

Non-urban counties* look to be in the middle of a rally.


* Non urban counties are all counties except the below.
Dublin
Wicklow
Kildare
Meath
Louth
Cork
Galway
Limerick

Only two "green" months nationally since last August and two in Dublin since last July.

That said, there was a "red" streak in Dublin lasting for five months from 2013 into 2014 so it doesn't tell us too much.

Still early days. A single mad green month could see recent drops reversed very quickly.

helimachoptor

thanks gaius , interesting data

gaius c

National


Dublin


Cork


Galway

helimachoptor

gaius, what are you using as your source?

gaius c

Transaction volumes by year


Transaction volumes by quarter


Transaction volumes by month

gaius c

helimachoptor wrote: »

gaius, what are you using as your source?

Property price register. I'm happy to share (18 meg file size warning). PM me for details.

helimachoptor

Cheers G.

Seems like quite the slow down going by volumes to date

MayBea

Just a small anecdote about one house we viewed in January.
The house in Sandyford went for sale in November 14 and was sale agreed for 440k, but the buyer has pulled out due to some unforeseen circumstances (ea's words).
The house was back to the market in January'15 with the same asking (425k), however went for 420k in the end, according to the Price Register.

gaius c

MayBea wrote: »

Just a small anecdote about one house we viewed in January.
The house in Sandyford went for sale in November 14 and was sale agreed for 440k, but the buyer has pulled out due to some unforeseen circumstances (ea's words).
The house was back to the market in January'15 with the same asking (425k), however went for 420k in the end, according to the Price Register.

I raise you this one. Was up last year for 345k. Had an offer at 350k but the vendors rejected it looking for 355k. Buyer went elsewhere. House sat on the market for months with the EA constantly deleting and re-adding the house to hide that. Eventually dropped by 6k (with the re-add hiding the drop). Still can't get bites and it's been deleted/re-added a few times since the price drop.

Meanwhile, this house was priced right, swarmed at the viewing and sale agreed (over the asking) within a fortnight of going on sale.

El_Dangeroso

I wish it were easy to separate Galway county and city data. Galway includes a big part of the midlands where you can pick up a 3 bed for 80K, and then there are places in the city where a 3 bed goes for 500K and needs about 100K of refurb.

farrerg

This putting up and taking down of ads seems to be getting pretty common with a few of the estate agents, very annoying. I've also seen that particular estate agent with '385k will buy!!' At the top of an ad in caps (I.e. the asking price) for a house that seemed overpriced and had been up for months

helimachoptor

tbh i think there is a 2 tier EA market emerging

Ones that think 2005-2007 is back in full swing and ones that are a bit more realistic but seem to have vendors who are in the above mentioned years!

gaius c

El_Dangeroso wrote: »

I wish it were easy to separate Galway county and city data. Galway includes a big part of the midlands where you can pick up a 3 bed for 80K, and then there are places in the city where a 3 bed goes for 500K and needs about 100K of refurb.

Good point. Don't really see an easy way to do it without good local knowledge to filter out the results.

gaius c

farrerg wrote: »

This putting up and taking down of ads seems to be getting pretty common with a few of the estate agents, very annoying. I've also seen that particular estate agent with '385k will buy!!' At the top of an ad in caps (I.e. the asking price) for a house that seemed overpriced and had been up for months

Yeah, it's interesting to see how individual EA's work and the experience of buying means that you wouldn't dream of using some of them when selling.

seamus

helimachoptor wrote: »

tbh i think there is a 2 tier EA market emerging

Ones that think 2005-2007 is back in full swing and ones that are a bit more realistic but seem to have vendors who are in the above mentioned years!

There is a 3rd tier where the EA and the vendor are in reality land, it's just hard to find.
Viewed a property last night that went sale agreed late last year @ 410 but fell through. They took a break and have relisted @ 380, and the EA very honestly said that he's not expecting it to go for more than that.
Most sales that fall through have the vendors relisting at the agreed price, not the original one.

The other trend I'm noting, which may be anecdotal, is the lack of trader-upper properties on the market. 90% of what I'm going to see are executor sales, former rental properties, or older people who are retired to a holiday home down the country.

El_Dangeroso

gaius c wrote: »

Good point. Don't really see an easy way to do it without good local knowledge to filter out the results.

If you want to attach the raw data here I'll be happy to split between city and county.

ionapaul

MayBea wrote: »

Just a small anecdote about one house we viewed in January.
The house in Sandyford went for sale in November 14 and was sale agreed for 440k, but the buyer has pulled out due to some unforeseen circumstances (ea's words).
The house was back to the market in January'15 with the same asking (425k), however went for 420k in the end, according to the Price Register.

Also saw that one - and others in the estate - in the months leading up to Christmas. Definitely think that the peak in terms of selling prices for that area was reached last summer/autumn, much less interest and bidding wars as the year wore on. The other two similar houses (pretty much the same size and layouts) in that estate are now asking €395k, a good move as I'm sure they should meet and maybe exceed that price, though not meet the prices achieved last year.

quadrifoglio verde

Christ the average Dublin price really jumped in July 14 although with relatively few transactions, would a few trophy home sales be behind part of that spike?
Is it possible to find out how many million euro plus houses sold in Dublin in July 14?

Bob24

quadrifoglio verde wrote: »

Christ the average Dublin price really jumped in July 14 although with relatively few transactions, would a few trophy home sales be behind part of that spike?
Is it possible to find out how many million euro plus houses sold in Dublin in July 14?

Sere here: https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/website/npsra/ppr/npsra-ppr.nsf/Downloads/PPR-2014-07-Dublin.csv/$FILE/PPR-2014-07-Dublin.csv

I can see about 45 (3.2% of all 1400 transaction).

One other thing though is that there are a quite a few bulk purchases of apartments. That's quite a few 5.7 million euros transactions which are actually for 12 apartments each (sale of a whole apartment block in Grand Canal Docks). Not sure whether gaius is giving these a special treatement but that could definitely have some impact.

MayBea

gaius c wrote: »

I raise you this one. Was up last year for 345k. Had an offer at 350k but the vendors rejected it looking for 355k. Buyer went elsewhere. House sat on the market for months with the EA constantly deleting and re-adding the house to hide that. Eventually dropped by 6k (with the re-add hiding the drop). Still can't get bites and it's been deleted/re-added a few times since the price drop.

Meanwhile, this house was priced right, swarmed at the viewing and sale agreed (over the asking) within a fortnight of going on sale.

Initial asking 290k? That's smart marketing, well done to them.
The first one does have an extension though, so I can see where his pricing attempts are coming from.

MayBea

ionapaul wrote: »

Also saw that one - and others in the estate - in the months leading up to Christmas. Definitely think that the peak in terms of selling prices for that area was reached last summer/autumn, much less interest and bidding wars as the year wore on. The other two similar houses (pretty much the same size and layouts) in that estate are now asking €395k, a good move as I'm sure they should meet and maybe exceed that price, though not meet the prices achieved last year.

Yes, with one of these two having a southern aspect, so theoretically should be priced higher.

Eugene Norman

Deleted User wrote: »

If there are another couple of months of price drops (as there was last month) then the tide can go out very quickly.

Even the Indo would get on board with a new narrative. They'd be busy blaming the Central Bank, of course, but 'Property Crash II' would seep into the public mind sharpish - probably out of proportion with reality but then it becomes self-fulfilling as confidence tumbles.

Obviously if prices hold up then 'spring selling season' could take off.

A lot of cash sellers might get antsy. A market based on cash can fall much quicker than a market based on un-repossable mortgages.

REFLINE1

quadrifoglio verde wrote: »

Christ the average Dublin price really jumped in July 14 although with relatively few transactions, would a few trophy home sales be behind part of that spike?
Is it possible to find out how many million euro plus houses sold in Dublin in July 14?

http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=63889&p=813249&hilit=central+park#p813249

The average in July was skewed by the sale of Block F K and L Central Park, Leopardstown for
86,000,000 in July '14. It pulled the average up by 60k

Eugene Norman

Eugene Norman wrote: »

A lot of cash sellers might get antsy. A market based on cash can fall much quicker than a market based on un-repossable mortgages.

What do you mean by 'cash sellers'?

Eugene Norman

The data from Gaius indicates that the market is mostly down most months in Dublin ( mom), but there are occasional massive increases possibly due to very low transactions. This then gets advertised by the indo et al. as house prices increases feeling continued increases from then on. Most of the growth was in two or three months of 50% and 25% growth.

This is a totally non-functional market. Its basically high because there are so few transactions.

Eugene Norman

Deleted User wrote: »

What do you mean by 'cash sellers'?

I meant cash buyers ( although at that stage they would be sellers). As would be clear from the rest of the sentence.