Property Market 2015

helimachoptor

a lot of houses we've seen have had bids.. one in Nov last year had a bid of 595.. now there a bid of 501(rejected), sizeable difference

enfant terrible

gaius c wrote: »

Thanks gaius,

Appreciate it.

helimachoptor

helimachoptor wrote: »

yeah agree, myself and the wife both works. Good jobs, a lot of savings built up after buying in 2007 (now rented).

While we could afford to buy at the level houses are at now in SCD, i dont want to put us in that position.

We are going to see this house
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/64-foxrock-avenue-foxrock-dublin-18/2717652

Regardless of the view if its "real foxrock", spacious, nice garden, nice area.

EA expects it to go for above asking despite it being on the market since June last year..

Needs updating and likely double glazing as the BER is awful

Went to see this this evening, offer of 575... EA expects vendor to wait for more offers.

Big house, extension is a bit off tbh, there's a sitting room basically in it. Appliances are a bit odd, flat roof on it. It will need replacing soon enough you can see the degradation and patch jobs on it (prob 25K).

House needs a lot of cosmetics, one of the "bedrooms" is tiny, attic conversion is nice.

Cant believe the offer price, if i was the vendor i would be taking that offer to the bank

Rackstar

Dublin graphical representation of house price sales Feb 2015

Rackstar

Dublin Feb 15 House Price heat map

Rackstar

Dublin Feb sales time lapse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8O0aoMV780

MarkAnthony

These are very pretty but need a bit of context and explanation.

Rackstar

MarkAnthony wrote: »

These are very pretty but need a bit of context and explanation.

Probably all they are is pretty. Data taken from property price register. Only 55% of it was valid due to addresses. 1st post shows house sales and the height relates to price. 2nd post shows heat map of sale prices. Video shows sales by date on property price register.

Rackstar

Ireland property price heat map. Data from Property Price Register for 2015

The_Conductor

Aside from the low sampling rate (55%)- the graphics do appear to be a good depiction of what we all anecdotally are hearing.
If the data could be cleaned- and remapped- so over 90% of returns were included- you could argue that its statistically significant- however, as-is- while its a decent effort- its not exactly scientific........

El_Dangeroso

Heat maps always make me think of this:

Rackstar

Combined Sales by county that have been registered on the property price register so far in 2015

Didn't expect Kildare to be so far ahead of Wicklow and Meath

The_Conductor

Rackstar wrote: »

Didn't expect Kildare to be so far ahead of Wicklow and Meath

There are far more large sales of multiple units in the Kildare area- than than Wicklow and Meath. Conversely- there are more development units in progress in Meath than either Kildare or Wicklow- and these will start to hit the market imminently.

Note- the number of units- and indeed the cash values of the sales- are so small- that a couple of big sales can disproportionately massively skew the figures. Its really not healthy to try and draw any conclusions- as the market is all over the place.

marco_polo

Definately feel things are cooling down a bit, bidding on a house at the moment (slightly over 400K bracket) after 3-4 viewings bidding is still < 90% of asking, based on many (bad) experience from last year I feel it would definately have gone for a fair bit over asking during the peak of the madness last year.

leinsterdude

Wow Kildare is flying, I do think the Newlands cross fly over has helped though, saves me 15 minutes at least.

jimosterberg

marco_polo wrote: »

Definately feel things are cooling down a bit, bidding on a house at the moment (slightly over 400K bracket) after 3-4 viewings bidding is still < 90% of asking, based on many (bad) experience from last year I feel it would definately have gone for a fair bit over asking during the peak of the madness last year.

Have noticed similar things myself. Bid on a property and 5 weeks on we were still the highest bidders at 35k below asking. We were told then there was an offer of 10k below asking and would we like to bid higher as they were going to wrap up at that price. That is over a month ago, no sign yet of the house coming up as sale agreed yet. That type of house would have a lot of bidders last some and would have gone above asking price.

Bob24

jimosterberg wrote: »

We were told then there was an offer of 10k below asking and would we like to bid higher as they were going to wrap up at that price. That is over a month ago, no sign yet of the house coming up as sale agreed yet.

We have heard that story a few times as well. One time it was true and they indeed went sale agreed a few days later (it was for a good apartment in a high demand location and the highest offer was 10% above asking). Most times it was obviously the agents trying to pressure us into making higher bids ... we declined and the places are still not marked sale agreed after a few weeks.

gaius c

jimosterberg wrote: »

Have noticed similar things myself. Bid on a property and 5 weeks on we were still the highest bidders at 35k below asking. We were told then there was an offer of 10k below asking and would we like to bid higher as they were going to wrap up at that price. That is over a month ago, no sign yet of the house coming up as sale agreed yet. That type of house would have a lot of bidders last some and would have gone above asking price.

Some agents will wait till contracts are signed before marking the house sale agreed. I've heard (anecdotally) that half of all sale agreeds are falling through so it's prudent practice on their part.

helimachoptor

currently looking at a house, good location, good size good garden.
Needs some what is hopefully just some cosmetic work.

Getting a builder to take a look at this this week, then need to fine tune the offer..

Kalman

House prices are linked to the employment market. If that is vibrant then yes you could see an upturn in the market. However, I remain doubtful !

gaius c

Kalman wrote: »

House prices are linked to the employment market. If that is vibrant then yes you could see an upturn in the market. However, I remain doubtful !

Employment is up but wages are down, i.e. new jobs being added are low wage jobs.

seamus

Kalman wrote: »

House prices are linked to the employment market. If that is vibrant then yes you could see an upturn in the market. However, I remain doubtful !

That's one part of it.

We're in a weird market at present that's still attempting to recover from 50%+ losses over the last 8 years. So we've seen weird surges in price over the last year due to an improved labour market and availability of credit and constrained house availability.

But a lot of it is propped up by sentiment; by people's memories of the €600k they paid for their house now valued at €300k, and their denial of the fact that money is gone. And then you have the new regulations further constraining what people are able to borrow.

I think we're looking at 3-5 years before the market returns to some form of normality - where we have an appropriate level of building output, appropriate levels of mortgage lending, and the memory of what was paid in 2005 becomes distant and people learn to accept that their house is worth what people will pay for it.

At present we have none of these 3 things in place, so the market is in absolute turmoil. In the short term we'll probably see some increases in price at the insane end - prestige properties going for a €1m+ as profits improve for business, while the middle-class second hand market will get absolutely savaged by new builds and the mortgage rules, such that anything over €400k will have to continually drop price to achieve any kind of interest.

johnp001

seamus wrote: »

That's one part of it.

We're in a weird market at present that's still attempting to recover from 50%+ losses over the last 8 years. So we've seen weird surges in price over the last year due to an improved labour market and availability of credit and constrained house availability.

But a lot of it is propped up by sentiment; by people's memories of the €600k they paid for their house now valued at €300k, and their denial of the fact that money is gone. And then you have the new regulations further constraining what people are able to borrow.

I think we're looking at 3-5 years before the market returns to some form of normality - where we have an appropriate level of building output, appropriate levels of mortgage lending, and the memory of what was paid in 2005 becomes distant and people learn to accept that their house is worth what people will pay for it.

At present we have none of these 3 things in place, so the market is in absolute turmoil. In the short term we'll probably see some increases in price at the insane end - prestige properties going for a €1m+ as profits improve for business, while the middle-class second hand market will get absolutely savaged by new builds and the mortgage rules, such that anything over €400k will have to continually drop price to achieve any kind of interest.

Agreed the market is extremely volatile.
Any sign of a cooling/reversal in property prices will severely affect the sentiment of buyers who are willing to overindebt themselves massively for an asset that is rising in value but not for one that is seen to be depreciating.
Likewise banks that currently have major problems with loans secured on properties that they cannot recoup even if they were repossessed will be hesitant to lend as much into a falling market.

Villa05

seamus wrote:

We're in a weird market at present that's still attempting to recover from 50%+ losses over the last 8 years. So we've seen weird surges in price over the last year due to an improved labour market and availability of credit and constrained house availability.

Or is it recovering from rises of 300% between 96 and 07, or more to the point being blocked from recovery by various interventions

Crazy market, glad I'm out of it

gaius c

seamus wrote: »

We're in a weird market at present that's still attempting to recover from 50%+ losses over the last 8 years.

Erm...that was a recovery.

seamus

Villa05 wrote: »

Or is it recovering from rises of 300% between 96 and 07, or more to the point being blocked from recovery by various interventions

Crazy market, glad I'm out of it

gaius c wrote: »

Erm...that was a recovery.

yeah, yeah smartasses.

I guess it depends on which market you bought in

When I mention "recovery" I guess I'm talking about stability and functioning rather than prices. There was a period of five years where we had insanely low sales figures, low mortgage figures and low output figures.

johnp001

Unusually bearish Indo story on CB Rules.

"The regulations include a requirement that a property valuation supplied for the purposes of obtaining a mortgage must not be more than two months old at the time when the loan is being drawn down."

Loans at risk under new rules as house prices fall - Independent.ie

"...if the value of the property falls during the period between the first and second valuation - something which is becoming more likely as the same regulations begin reducing the numbers of home hunters" - the bank cannot pay out the full sale price originally agreed in the mortgage terms."

jay0109

johnp001 wrote: »

Unusually bearish Indo story on CB Rules.

"The regulations include a requirement that a property valuation supplied for the purposes of obtaining a mortgage must not be more than two months old at the time when the loan is being drawn down."

Loans at risk under new rules as house prices fall - Independent.ie

"...if the value of the property falls during the period between the first and second valuation - something which is becoming more likely as the same regulations begin reducing the numbers of home hunters" - the bank cannot pay out the full sale price originally agreed in the mortgage terms."

"In a price survey conducted by the Irish Independent earlier this year, agents in at least three parts of the capital predicted that prices would not rise this year in their neighbourhoods as a result of buyers being excluded from the market under the Central Bank measures"

They're some Muppets:rolleyes:

gogreen81

1) Property market is going down or remaining stable for the rest of the year.
Have been tracking the market for over 6 months now. Have seen some stupid increases of the house specially end of last year and early this year. The myhome notifications tells you about most the increases and decreases each day. Some decreases makes sense i.e 2-3% property value , but recently I have seen this going down considerably. Anyone else who is tracking changes closely? I guess most of us

2) Mortgages- Being approved by a couple of banks, I was sitting comfortably, but now this(X) bank has refused me the amount what others were ok to give in the past. So I definitely CANt bid higher, incase I find my dream house just outside my budget . Well there would be definitely similar impact to others in the market.

3) One of the houses I bid 2 months back ( X-10%). EA said that it’s a bit low, although this house easily 5-10% higher than other properties in the area. I was told I was outbid by 1-2k each time when I called or had a viewing ( had 3 viewing of the property- my mistake showing desperation). The last I called suddenly it went up by almost10k, I guess to put the pressure. I went up another 2k when the EA told me that it’s the last day and within a couple of hours was told that I won the bid and had to submit deposit asap.
After long night of thinking , I withdrew my bid, but the EA got pissed off and she told me xyz… I told her that she hasn’t much to lose as the underbidder is just off by 2k..
That was one month back and I see the property still on daft. Tried contacting thru dubious name to conclude that its still not sold.
That was a good enuf experience (by fluke)for me to find out that the EA was not truthful.
Everyone is taking their chances to get a higher amount on their property .. Its fair as long as its within limit of supply and demand.

4) While writing this, got a call from EA who told me not to think about offering to a property which has already met the asking price. Now today he asked me if I was still interested in any of the properties that I viewed with him.. and I told him yes for one. He’s not atleast acknowledged that I am ready to offer 15-20 k lower then asking.. Mybe it will be turned down by their superior , but atleast my offer was acknowledged.

johnp001

Very bearish altogether
Paddy Power seems to have just closed it's book on house price changes as recorded by CSO for the year too. I think it was at 7/2 on "any decrease" which I would have had some of it I was a betting man.
I wouldn't have expected tomorrows CSO figures to show a fall for February as the CSO figures only include mortgage transactions and it looks like a lot of mortgage buyers have trying to use pre CB-rule AIPs to pay crazy money for houses but maybe PP know something we don't?