Property Market 2015

seamus

MarkAnthony wrote: »

They saw massive fall offs, some people are buying them in lieu of a house due to affordability, some people are seeing the rental returns and thinking (wrongly) Cer-ching, low volume of transactions mean the data isn't great anyway.

Also some desirable apartments coming on stream, as above.

To add to that, I would also suggest that apartments took a bigger hit than houses in the collapse, so they may be a little behind the curve in terms of levelling out.

MarkAnthony

seamus wrote: »

To add to that, I would also suggest that apartments took a bigger hit than houses in the collapse, so they may be a little behind the curve in terms of levelling out.

That's what I meant by massive fall offs but it's worth underscoring. That said they're very close now I think? (Houses and apartments as a % of 2005 prices.) Perhaps we're seeing the end of apartment rises ahead of house prices? I think there's another year in it though personally.

valoren

Personally, I feel I'm between a rock and a hard place.

We're getting married this year but my fiance has a previous property from 2005 with a family member so no longer is a FTB.

I'm a FTB and she's looking to either get bought out by the other or they will sell up.

We're looking at a 4 bed for 235,00 in Cork, the kind of house we'd live in for a long time.
If I applied for a Sole mortgage I am only approved up to 3.5 times salary (50k) and qualify for the 10% deposit of 23,500.

This rules out the above straight away, I have the savings but not comfortable dropping 90% of savings (60k) on a property, ideal and all as it is.

If we applied under a joint mortgage then we can get approved for the house but we'd need a 20% deposit under the new rules. (47,000).

I read about the scope for 20% of the loan book to get stretched? (the 3.5 times earnings criteria) Would I be a candidate for this? It's a frustrating dilemma to be in.

mickman

valoren wrote: »

Personally, I feel I'm between a rock and a hard place.

We're getting married this year but my fiance has a previous property from 2005 with a family member so no longer is a FTB.

I'm a FTB and she's looking to either get bought out by the other or they will sell up.

We're looking at a 4 bed for 235,00 in Cork, the kind of house we'd live in for a long time.
If I applied for a Sole mortgage I am only approved up to 3.5 times salary (50k) and qualify for the 10% deposit of 23,500.

This rules out the above straight away, I have the savings but not comfortable dropping 90% of savings (60k) on a property, ideal and all as it is.

If we applied under a joint mortgage then we can get approved for the house but we'd need a 20% deposit under the new rules. (47,000).

I read about the scope for 20% of the loan book to get stretched? (the 3.5 times earnings criteria) Would I be a candidate for this? It's a frustrating dilemma to be in.

why dont you want to use savings ? you prefer to pay interest ?

valoren

mickman wrote: »

why dont you want to use savings ? you prefer to pay interest ?

I'd like some equity in a house yes, but all my life savings? Not at all.
Not wanting to put all my eggs in one basket so to speak.

From today's meeting it seems savings are irrelevant anyway and it's all to do with income/current loans.

Approval in principle for 175k (the 3.5 times criteria). Said it would have been 250k six months ago.

It's a bit of a reality check. 4 bed's are now unaffordable.
I'm full time perm 50k, a FTB with a savings history of 70k and no current debt.

I don't see any value in Cork at the 175k range. Am I deluding myself for a 4 bed semi D in Cork suburbs? Will have to sit it out and wait for a family home.

Alkers

valoren wrote: »

Personally, I feel I'm between a rock and a hard place.

We're getting married this year but my fiance has a previous property from 2005 with a family member so no longer is a FTB.

I'm a FTB and she's looking to either get bought out by the other or they will sell up.

We're looking at a 4 bed for 235,00 in Cork, the kind of house we'd live in for a long time.
If I applied for a Sole mortgage I am only approved up to 3.5 times salary (50k) and qualify for the 10% deposit of 23,500.

This rules out the above straight away, I have the savings but not comfortable dropping 90% of savings (60k) on a property, ideal and all as it is.

If we applied under a joint mortgage then we can get approved for the house but we'd need a 20% deposit under the new rules. (47,000).

I read about the scope for 20% of the loan book to get stretched? (the 3.5 times earnings criteria) Would I be a candidate for this? It's a frustrating dilemma to be in.

So why don't you go the joint route and spend the 47k on the deposit? Better then having to spend the 60k on top of the mortgage to get the house as a single applicant?

valoren

Simona1986 wrote: »

So why don't you go the joint route and spend the 47k on the deposit? Better then having to spend the 60k on top of the mortgage to get the house as a single applicant?

Yes, this will have to be the way forward, felt rushed to get approval as the house/area we had an eye on came up. It will be gone before we could go down the Joint route/tying up the sale,transfer of her current place. Felt that the sole application would be possible for myself with a quicker turnaround.

impr0v

Whether you use all your savings or not, you will be putting all your eggs in the one basket.

gaius c

valoren wrote: »

I'd like some equity in a house yes, but all my life savings? Not at all.
Not wanting to put all my eggs in one basket so to speak.

From today's meeting it seems savings are irrelevant anyway and it's all to do with income/current loans.

Approval in principle for 175k (the 3.5 times criteria). Said it would have been 250k six months ago.

It's a bit of a reality check. 4 bed's are now unaffordable.
I'm full time perm 50k, a FTB with a savings history of 70k and no current debt.

I don't see any value in Cork at the 175k range. Am I deluding myself for a 4 bed semi D in Cork suburbs? Will have to sit it out and wait for a family home.

I'm as bearish as they come on this forum but I think you need to do a reality check on your expectations. You're looking for a 4 bed house in the second largest city in the state and you only want to use some of your not extravagant financial resources.
The sums are not going to add up because there will be others prepared to endure the "pain" that you're trying to avoid in order to secure the property.

valoren

gaius c wrote: »

I'm as bearish as they come on this forum but I think you need to do a reality check on your expectations. You're looking for a 4 bed house in the second largest city in the state and you only want to use some of your not extravagant financial resources.
The sums are not going to add up because there will be others prepared to endure the "pain" that you're trying to avoid in order to secure the property.

I know. I'm trying to be realistic. I'm not willing to stump all my savings to make up the shortfall. It wouldn't be prudent because my job could go bang in a year or two, who knows. I'd like some cushion to be able to pay the mortgage while I looked for another job for example. If the shoe doesn't fit then we'll have to find another way I guess.

I just moved back from Dublin and was renting (I was lucky it wan't exorbitant) so to save what I did took some time. I am also realistic about the house itself it's a 30 min drive to the City, so it's not like I'm looking in the more expensive area (Douglas, Carrigaline, Ovens, Ballincollig etc) in the city.

The asking is €235,000 and likely to go more. 10% deposit as FTB = €23,500.
Have to factor in another 6k for stamp and solicitor fees so 30,000 spent. Say the Mortgage is €210,000. Monthly repayment would be circa €1,080. Affordable even one salary. Currently 2950 per month but increases to 3150 after marriage iirc. My fiance is also working.

But it's frustrating to just hear "Computer says no" now the rules are tightened. There was no discretion, it was simply a case of sorry no can do, our hands are tied etc.

mickman

valoren wrote: »

I'd like some equity in a house yes, but all my life savings? Not at all.
Not wanting to put all my eggs in one basket so to speak.

From today's meeting it seems savings are irrelevant anyway and it's all to do with income/current loans.

Approval in principle for 175k (the 3.5 times criteria). Said it would have been 250k six months ago.

It's a bit of a reality check. 4 bed's are now unaffordable.
I'm full time perm 50k, a FTB with a savings history of 70k and no current debt.

I don't see any value in Cork at the 175k range. Am I deluding myself for a 4 bed semi D in Cork suburbs? Will have to sit it out and wait for a family home.

deposit is very very relevant. ill sell you a house in mallow if you want :-)

leinsterdude

€1,050 affordable on one income ? fair play, but that is the most a mortgage should be really, any more than that is just too much, even though many people do indeed pay more, would not like to be buying in Dublin right now !!

fret_wimp2

leinsterdude wrote: »

€1,050 affordable on one income ? fair play, but that is the most a mortgage should be really, any more than that is just too much, even though many people do indeed pay more, would not like to be buying in Dublin right now !!

a mortgage should never be more than 1050? care to qualify that a little? for an average wage i agree, but someone on a good salary can easily afford more than this. Or maybe someone has a massive mortgage but its spread over a long period. Lot of variables you just ignored with a pretty meaningless generalization.

Dublin will always be more expensive, this is just basic basic real estate 101 here, i.e. location location location.

mariaalice

House near me went sale agreed last September then never sold and now its been put back on the market at 10k more that last years price even though it did not sell then???

cmssjone

mariaalice wrote: »

House near me went sale agreed last September then never sold and now its been put back on the market at 10k more that last years price even though it did not sell then???

Would that be the one in Orpen?

valoren

Also saw a house advertised for asking 250k, inquired and the vendor won't sell for less than 275k.

???

Rew

valoren wrote: »

Also saw a house advertised for asking 250k, inquired and the vendor won't sell for less than 275k.

???

My guess EA probably listed it cheaper to get people though the door. Vendor got pissed off at EA bringing in offers of 250k, EA now telling the truth.

stevedublin

valoren wrote: »

Also saw a house advertised for asking 250k, inquired and the vendor won't sell for less than 275k.

???

The vendor may deliberately put in a low price to generate interest.
if it was listed at 275k then potential buyers would think that's the starting price and they would probably not even look at it they were prepared to pay that price.

johnp001

mariaalice wrote: »

House near me went sale agreed last September then never sold and now its been put back on the market at 10k more that last years price even though it did not sell then???

Maybe it was sale agreed at a higher price than asking last time.
As the market has cooled significantly since then it is less likely now that they will experience a bidding situation where the offer went above asking.
Likely the real "reserve" of the house is 10k more than the previous asking price for some reason.

Hopefully we will see less of the "low pricing as interest generation strategy" in the current market now that supply is rapidly increasing and bidding wars cannot be so readily expected.

Its concerning for vendors that this is yet another anecdote of a sale falling through.

Sentiment seems to have turned also.
For every discerning home buyer who read of the leading indicators trending downwards in Daft Q4 2014 report and has now had this confirmed by the CSO Jan & Feb figures there will be another couple of prospective buyers who read:
DON'T BUY YOUR HOUSE NOW
and have their confidence in the long-term sustainable house price growth scenario, previously being peddled by the media, seriously shaken.

johnp001

johnp001 wrote: »

Maybe it was sale agreed at a higher price than asking last time.
As the market has cooled significantly since then it is less likely now that they will experience a bidding situation where the offer went above asking.
Likely the real "reserve" of the house is 10k more than the previous asking price for some reason.

Hopefully we will see less of the "low pricing as interest generation strategy" in the current market now that supply is rapidly increasing and bidding wars cannot be so readily expected.

Its concerning for vendors that this is yet another anecdote of a sale falling through.

Sentiment seems to have turned also.
For every discerning home buyer who read of the leading indicators trending downwards in Daft Q4 2014 report and has now had this confirmed by the CSO Jan & Feb figures there will be another couple of prospective buyers who read:
DON'T BUY YOUR HOUSE NOW
and have their confidence in the long-term sustainable house price growth scenario, previously being peddled by the media, seriously shaken.

Was in a taxi yesterday, driver volunteered his opinion that prices are falling and set to fall further. He owns his own house so has no particular interest in falling prices but he reckoned the government (actually, the Central Bank, if anyone) has put the brakes on another property bubble.

That's the official Taxi Driver Sentiment Index. As good an indicator as any!

seamus

Deleted User wrote: »

Was in a taxi yesterday, driver volunteered his opinion that prices are falling and set to fall further. He owns his own house so has no particular interest in falling prices but he reckoned the government (actually, the Central Bank, if anyone) has put the brakes on another property bubble.

That's the official Taxi Driver Sentiment Index. As good an indicator as any!

Wasn't that the old story - when you start getting property tips from taxi drivers, it's time to get out of the market?

Yeah, I regularly survey taxi drivers! Last autumn I was talking to a driver about a new housing development that I thought was overpriced. His view was 'yeah but the way they are rising now it'll only cost you to wait another year'. That was a bit of a 'shoe-shine boy says buy stocks now' moment. No offence taxi drivers! Font of wisdom a lot of the time.

johnp001

Deleted User wrote: »

Yeah, I regularly survey taxi drivers! Last autumn I was talking to a driver about a new housing development that I thought was overpriced. His view was 'yeah but the way they are rising now it'll only cost you to wait another year'. That was a bit of a 'shoe-shine boy says buy stocks now' moment. No offence taxi drivers! Font of wisdom a lot of the time.

Whether they are right or wrong at any given time they are undoubtedly the most effective vectors and bellweathers of the sentiment of the general public.

mariaalice

While I do think it is better to wait till all those who can buy under the old rules gradually leave the market, which should be sometime in the summer if the offer was for 6 months.

The only problem with that is potential purchasers who have been holding off could all enter the market in the autumn.

To be honest, I think prices will drop further near the end of the year (maybe after a period of stabilisation and even slight rises in Q2) but if the right house comes up now I'm not going to hang on in the hope of saving money later.

Eugene Norman

seamus wrote: »

Wasn't that the old story - when you start getting property tips from taxi drivers, it's time to get out of the market?

Well only if they are Bulls not bears.

Taxi drivers are useful to talk to on the General economy. They will regale you with celtic tiger excesses and give you an indication of anything picking up. As a luxury for many they would notice.

Eugene Norman

mariaalice wrote: »

While I do think it is better to wait till all those who can buy under the old rules gradually leave the market, which should be sometime in the summer if the offer was for 6 months.

The only problem with that is potential purchasers who have been holding off could all enter the market in the autumn.

Yeah. Be brave. Wait a year.

The Spider

Always do the opposite of what the taxi drivers recommend, I've lost count of the amount of taxi drivers telling me how many houses they had in the last boom and apartments in Bulgaria. Time will tell, but I'll stand by rises this year, still up 14% on last year, I reckon by the end of the year it'll be between 16 and 20%.

The economy and supply is the driver here, prices drop builders won't build. Like I say I'll wait and see, I could be wrong and will put my hands up if I am.

The Spider

The Spider wrote: »

Always do the opposite of what the taxi drivers recommend, I've lost count of the amount of taxi drivers telling me how many houses they had in the last boom and apartments in Bulgaria. Time will tell, but I'll stand by rises this year, still up 14% on last year, I reckon by the end of the year it'll be between 16 and 20%.

The economy and supply is the driver here, prices drop builders won't build. Like I say I'll wait and see, I could be wrong and will put my hands up if I am.

Fair play Spider, picking a number. I put up my best guess a few pages back. We'll see!

Just to be clear, you're going for between +16 and +20% for 2015?

[Edit: This was my prediction from earlier in the thread (i.e. before the latest CSO figures):
I go for drops Q1 (on a headstart there!); slight uptick Q2 (90% AIPs still out there); steady Q3; negative Q4 (full impact of CB rules is felt)
= Slightly negative or flat for the year ]

The Spider

Deleted User wrote: »

Fair play Spider, picking a number. I put up my best guess a few pages back. We'll see!

Just to be clear, you're going for between +16 and +20% for 2015?

Well we're at +14% now so my reckoning by the end of the year is between +16% and + 20%. I could be very wrong of course, but that's my gut feeling with the way the economy is and supply at the moment.