Property Market 2015

johnp001

The Spider wrote: »

Well we're at +14% now so my reckoning by the end of the year is between +16% and + 20%. I could be very wrong of course, but that's my gut feeling with the way the economy is and supply at the moment.

The +14% is a YoY change so is your prediction +16% YoY in a years time or +2%?
Does this relate to Dublin "houses" or "all residential property"

lima

The Spider wrote: »

Well we're at +14% now so my reckoning by the end of the year is between +16% and + 20%. I could be very wrong of course, but that's my gut feeling with the way the economy is and supply at the moment.

Aren't we at -3% in the year so far?

The Spider

lima wrote: »

Aren't we at -3% in the year so far?

+14% Year on year, so we're up 14% on february 2014, my prediction is being up 16-20% yoy by the end of the year.

Actually they're up 14.9% YOY

Yeah but you realise the 12 month period you'll be looking back on in December will include Jan and Feb which have both been negative. Last year's numbers will be no good to you.

The Spider

Deleted User wrote: »

Yeah but you realise the 12 month period you'll be looking back on in December will include Jan and Feb which have both been negative. Last year's numbers will be no good to you.

Yep I Get it, But I don't anticipate falls to continue through the year, we have people holding off because of the new rules, until they get a better view of where prices are at.

At some stage during the year they'll decide to buy, I reckon. Difference about the drops here is that the economy is recovering quicker than anywhere in Europe, no supply in Dublin to speak of I'd say this is more like people taking stock of where they're at before they decide to buy.

Of course supply can become even more limited if people decide not to sell because the price they achieve doesn't look worth it.

Tricky still think prices will rise over the year though.

Okay, fair enough.

I think the size of your prediction will be a good way off (you need 19-23% growth in the next 10 months!) but can't argue with the 'economy growing, supply static' argument. Time will tell.

The Spider

Deleted User wrote: »

Okay, fair enough.

I think the size of your prediction will be a good way off (you need 19-23% growth in the next 10 months!) but can't argue with the 'economy growing, supply static' argument. Time will tell.

All guesswork and am more than happy to put my hands up if I'm wrong, for what it's worth if it was me buying now I'd probably have a good think before I jumped, if it was this time last year I would've jumped right in.

johnp001

The Spider wrote: »

All guesswork and am more than happy to put my hands up if I'm wrong, for what it's worth if it was me buying now I'd probably have a good think before I jumped, if it was this time last year I would've jumped right in.

But yet you predict higher increases in property price growth in march-December 2015 than occurred in 2014.

The Spider

johnp001 wrote: »

But yet you predict higher increases in property price growth in march-December 2015 than occurred in 2014.

Yes I do.

Theboinkmaster

The Spider wrote: »

Yes I do.

No way. Spider I think you're confusing people with your % you should just state your jan-dec 2015 rise or fall.

I think 5% drop to flat this year, no rises for dublin houses.

Eugene Norman

The Spider wrote: »

Always do the opposite of what the taxi drivers recommend, I've lost count of the amount of taxi drivers telling me how many houses they had in the last boom and apartments in Bulgaria. Time will tell, but I'll stand by rises this year, still up 14% on last year, I reckon by the end of the year it'll be between 16 and 20%.

The economy and supply is the driver here, prices drop builders won't build. Like I say I'll wait and see, I could be wrong and will put my hands up if I am.

Builders have to finish what they start. It was lack of credit not the price of housing that stopped house building

Glenbhoy

mariaalice wrote: »

While I do think it is better to wait till all those who can buy under the old rules gradually leave the market, which should be sometime in the summer if the offer was for 6 months.

The only problem with that is potential purchasers who have been holding off could all enter the market in the autumn.

I would think that the pre-approved will have to have moved by the end of April at the latest if they want to draw down - correct me if anyone knows anything to the contrary, but if the house isn't pretty much sale agreed by then, they're unlikely to make the deadline.

leinsterdude

In Dublin they will not drop, I looked in Kildare just now, and some not so great areas are gone up slightly, and nicer parts of Kildare such as Naas, Newbridge, Kilcullen have gone up a good bit, would not like to be house hunting right now !

Bob24

leinsterdude wrote: »

In Dublin they will not drop, I looked in Kildare just now, and some not so great areas are gone up slightly, and nicer parts of Kildare such as Naas, Newbridge, Kilcullen have gone up a good bit, would not like to be house hunting right now !

Are you looking at Daft/MyHome or the property price register? For some reason asking prices have increased quite a bit recently but looking at the register or CSO index it doesn't seem to mean actual selling prices have increased.

TheDriver

Demand has increased in towns around me in Cork. Anything good is selling quickly and making good prices. Anything crap is not selling.

leinsterdude

leinsterdude wrote: »

In Dublin they will not drop, I looked in Kildare just now, and some not so great areas are gone up slightly, and nicer parts of Kildare such as Naas, Newbridge, Kilcullen have gone up a good bit, would not like to be house hunting right now !

Are you looking at the you-just-bought-in-Naas-and-are-sure-it-was-the-best-decision-ever?

Because I'm looking at the I'm-househunting-so-prices-must-fall

gaius c

mariaalice wrote: »

While I do think it is better to wait till all those who can buy under the old rules gradually leave the market, which should be sometime in the summer if the offer was for 6 months.

The only problem with that is potential purchasers who have been holding off could all enter the market in the autumn.

Look at it from another angle, those without sufficient deposits saved will be desperate to buy something before their approval runs out. I'm definitely seeing some isolated examples of houses where the first bid is the actual asking price. Might be them!

Deleted User wrote: »

To be honest, I think prices will drop further near the end of the year (maybe after a period of stabilisation and even slight rises in Q2) but if the right house comes up now I'm not going to hang on in the hope of saving money later.

Even with the crazy rises last year, there were still some good deals to be had. Get a good deal for yourself and let the rest of the market look after itself.

Mr. Incognito

I said here that prices were going one way this year. Down.

Have attended auctions pre and post Jan and the cgt holiday.

Foreign cash fueled the bubble last year.

They are not buying now and demand has evaporated.

mickman

Mr. Incognito wrote: »

I said here that prices were going one way this year. Down.

Have attended auctions pre and post Jan and the cgt holiday.

Foreign cash fueled the bubble last year.

They are not buying now and demand has evaporated.

Most houses in ireland are not bought at auctions

The_Conductor

The one observation I'd make from attending a number of recent viewings- is the staggering number of tyre kickers that are around. People going to view- some to get ideas- but very few to actually bid. If a particularly desireable property does come on the market- you will get people bidding- and often a considerable number of them are still cash buyers- which I find amazing- I'd have imagined that cash buyers had gone the way of the dodo- but apparently not........

Properties in desireable areas- are shifting. Even now- some of them are going for considerably above what most reasonable people would consider to be fair market value.

The flipside is- properties in the commuter belt- which would have sold quickly in the past 18-24 months- are now sitting there- people don't feel compelled to buy, for the sake of buying. If something particularly nice hits the market- it will sell- but if a run-of-the-mill property hits the market- even in the commuter belt- often it will sit there for a considerable length of time- or even indefinitely- unless the price gets reduced to such an extent that someone feels compelled to buy..........

The frenzy really is gone out of the market- esp. in the greater Dublin area.

johnp001

The_Conductor wrote: »

The one observation I'd make from attending a number of recent viewings- is the staggering number of tyre kickers that are around. People going to view- some to get ideas- but very few to actually bid. If a particularly desireable property does come on the market- you will get people bidding- and often a considerable number of them are still cash buyers- which I find amazing- I'd have imagined that cash buyers had gone the way of the dodo- but apparently not........

Properties in desireable areas- are shifting. Even now- some of them are going for considerably above what most reasonable people would consider to be fair market value.

The flipside is- properties in the commuter belt- which would have sold quickly in the past 18-24 months- are now sitting there- people don't feel compelled to buy, for the sake of buying. If something particularly nice hits the market- it will sell- but if a run-of-the-mill property hits the market- even in the commuter belt- often it will sit there for a considerable length of time- or even indefinitely- unless the price gets reduced to such an extent that someone feels compelled to buy..........

The frenzy really is gone out of the market- esp. in the greater Dublin area.

And I don't think there ever was much of a frenzy outside the greater Dublin area!

That tallies with what I'm seeing (mostly in commuter belt): viewings are still busy in terms of numbers but offers are few and far between. In some cases you see 25-30 people at an open viewing and are sure there will be a bidding war but three or four weeks later there are either no bids or a very low offer that the seller is not ready to accept.

The panic is definitely gone. Also some houses are priced by people who saw eye-watering sales prices last year and want that or more. I haven't been to an open viewing since late last month so maybe there were a few 'wait-and-see' browsers around. It was still early in the selling season and there's always that sense that something better might come along.

johnp001

johnp001 wrote: »

And I don't think there ever was much of a frenzy outside the greater Dublin area!

I'm looking in commuter towns and last spring/summer was truly insane. Not as insane as south county Dublin but still bonkers prices, five-way bidding wars, very quick sales times.

I think if you go another 10-20 miles out beyond the commuter belt - to where you couldn't reasonably commute daily - it's a different market.

Last summer a local estate agent (one of the few agents I'd take seriously) said a lot of bidders were people who had given up on SCD. They had started looking further out in D14/D16 until they were beyond the M50. Some of these had skipped D24 and headed for better parts of Lucan and then Kildare (e.g. Naas, Maynooth, Celbridge).

Now that prices have fallen two months on the trot and the newspapers are hand-wringing about the 'devastating' future impact of the Central Bank regulations (which I know some people here reasonably think is overblown), the 'buy something, somewhere, or we'll never get anything' is gone.

johnp001

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm looking in commuter towns and last spring/summer was truly insane. Not as insane as south county Dublin but still bonkers prices, five-way bidding wars, very quick sales times.

I think if you go another 10-20 miles out beyond the commuter belt - to where you couldn't reasonably commute daily - it's a different market.

Last summer a local estate agent (one of the few agents I'd take seriously) said a lot of bidders were people who had given up on SCD. They had started looking further out in D14/D16 until they were beyond the M50. Some of these had skipped D24 and headed for better parts of Lucan and then Kildare (e.g. Naas, Maynooth, Celbridge).

Now that prices have fallen two months on the trot and the newspapers are hand-wringing about the 'devastating' future impact of the Central Bank regulations (which I know some people here reasonably think is overblown), the 'buy something, somewhere, or we'll never get anything' is gone.

Lack of supply vs demand drove prices wildly in SCD and also to a slightly lesser extent in Greater Dublin Area.
Pre CB-rule levels of credit availability also contributed.
Sentiment, i.e. 'buy something, somewhere, or we'll never get anything' was also a major factor.

Sentiment has now turned.
Supply was never an issue more than say 30 miles from Dublin.
Credit is tighter now with the CB-rules.
Supply is increasing nationally as well as in Dublin.
Therefore I can't see how non-urban property prices can go anywhere but down, despite the high proportion of it that is already valued below build cost.

The one positive that I take from the recent turn in sentiment is that it might prevent those with pre CB-rule AIP massively over-leveraging themselves to buy into a falling market where they are almost immediately in negative equity.

decko11

The Dublin market is down significantly at the top end - It peaked mid 2014

One good measure is the total lack of auctions compared to last year

there are hardly a handful between now and end April - mid May


reasons for slow market in 1mm plus properties:

End of CGT exemption

lots of the cash buyers spent 2014 or earlier - (related to CGT)

Unrealistic vendors expectations (set largely due to madness of last season)

More supply at all levels

not yet a reason but will kick in (new CBI rules on mortgages)

MayBea

ElizKenny wrote: »

So if the CB are seen to have caused a problem with the economy, it wont be too long before they are put into a corner and told that they made a mess of it, so step out and leave it to someone else now.

Anyway, wait and watch for all the methods of getting around the deposit rules the banks have been gathering up.

And we can observe it in action, the panic has already set in (Drop in house prices 'unavoidable' says bank):
"Prof Kieran McQuinn of the Economic Research and Social Institute (ESRI), writing in today's Sunday Independent (below), warns of far-reaching consequences of the tough deposit regime.He warns the measures may result in lower house prices, fewer houses being built and lower levels of mortgage credit being extended.This, he suggests, is the opposite of what is required."
"The representative professional body for licensed auctioneers, valuers and estate agents says that the rules must be softened so that cash spent by tenants on rents, which rose by €1,200 in Dublin in 2014, will be acknowledged as proof that borrowers have an ability to save."

Bob24

MayBea wrote: »

And we can observe it in action, the panic has already set in (Drop in house prices 'unavoidable' says bank):
"Prof Kieran McQuinn of the Economic Research and Social Institute (ESRI), writing in today's Sunday Independent (below), warns of far-reaching consequences of the tough deposit regime.He warns the measures may result in lower house prices, fewer houses being built and lower levels of mortgage credit being extended.This, he suggests, is the opposite of what is required."
"The representative professional body for licensed auctioneers, valuers and estate agents says that the rules must be softened so that cash spent by tenants on rents, which rose by €1,200 in Dublin in 2014, will be acknowledged as proof that borrowers have an ability to save."

Great little country where people who are telling us how to manage the banking/property industries are basing their advice on estate agents and auctioneers - people who definitely don't have vested interest in having the proposed changes implemented.

johnp001

MayBea wrote: »

And we can observe it in action, the panic has already set in (Drop in house prices 'unavoidable' says bank):
"Prof Kieran McQuinn of the Economic Research and Social Institute (ESRI), writing in today's Sunday Independent (below), warns of far-reaching consequences of the tough deposit regime.He warns the measures may result in lower house prices, fewer houses being built and lower levels of mortgage credit being extended.This, he suggests, is the opposite of what is required."
"The representative professional body for licensed auctioneers, valuers and estate agents says that the rules must be softened so that cash spent by tenants on rents, which rose by €1,200 in Dublin in 2014, will be acknowledged as proof that borrowers have an ability to save."

If IPAV have the influence to countermand macro-prudential measures introduced by the Central Bank then I think we can look forward to further inflation of the bubble followed by a spectacular crash.

I don't think they do though, at least I hope not :eek:

Amidoman

Hi.

I'm looking to buy now too with two approvals and a deposit on two houses right now. I wasn't sure what to go for but here is my reasoning.
The new rules will definitely make it more difficult to buy. We want to have kids so it will be nearly impossible to buy later. We have approvals now applying to old rules and we cannot wait any longer. We know prices are higher and keep raising. I don't know where you have seen price drops, definitely not in Dublin. We put an offer on an older house (2002) but the agent who dealt with us started bidding between us and another person. The price went up from 240k to 265k in no time. We have no idea how much those other people were actually offering so I suppose the agent played a lot with us. We gave up as it wasn't in Dublin and I was sure it was far too high for it.
We decided to go for a new energy efficient house. There are only a few affordable houses being built so we had not much of a choice here. We have deposits on two houses in two different locations.
Now - I understand all predictions and all but I wouldn't expect another bubble. Developers aren't stupid. If the prices start falling down they will stop building and there will be no supply of new houses and apartments. Why would they lead to a situation like the one before and start loosing money?
The old bad energy rating houses cost nearly as much as new houses onky bcause they are closer to Dublin or they are in Dublin in so called good areas. Why would you even choose a damp cold house over a new A rating house with solar panels? Warm and possibly better built? Prices of old houses are pumped by agents organising biddings. You have actually no idea how much the other parts offer so agents may tell you anything they want. Ane they do play dirty.
I will buy one of the houses now as I see the increase in prices as there is still not enough supply. It will be slower abd may stabilise in 3-5 years. I see no price drops any time soon. With current rent prices many will look to buy. As for the higher deposit needed they will borrow from families and still buy. They will go outside Dublin to buy cheaper but will buy in order to run away from increasing rents.
And even if I decide to sell the house in 5-6 years I don't think I will loose much on it. And I will for sure have some money in my pocket from the deposit and money paid back instead of 1200 euro rent paid at the moment. And I'm sure my landlord will p
Increase rent again to 1300 at least from January. No doubt.
So for me and many others this may be the last call to run away from loosing a lot due to paying crazy rent.

Amidoman

I understand your reasons for buying now - your mortgage approval will soon lapse; want to have kids; unlikely to lose out much if you sell later given that you won't have to pay rent.

But as a matter of fact prices fell for the last two months and when people in your situation (with mortgage approval that will soon run out) are no longer in the market demand will fall further.

Don't get me wrong, if a house comes up that I like and can afford I'd buy it tomorrow even though I think prices will be lower this time next year. Want the get settled before kids start school etc. so there's more to it than economics.

But purely on economics, prices have been falling and fewer buyers/bidders will mean fewer houses going for mad money this summer.