Property Market 2015

Eugene Norman

Last time I looked at daft, just before the recent madness, there was 2,300 properties. Now it's about 4,000. That might be meaningless as there could be a bigger turnover in the first case, or the second case but it seems to be a leading indicator of price rises or reductions.

Last year's excitement is still infecting asking prices. I viewed a house that was on the market for ages with the seller refusing to accept a bid 20% below asking.

The agent said she thought the bid was optimistic but was trying to convince the seller to lower the price by about 10%. The seller was digging their heels in because a similar house sold for around his asking price last year.

Bit of a stand-off happening on some houses at the moment.

The Spider

Looks like my prediction is on track.

The Spider

The Spider wrote: »

Looks like my prediction is on track.

:rolleyes: You are just trying to get a rise out of us but...!

(sigh) This doesn't say a single thing about your prediction. You are predicting 16-20% rises in the year 2015 presumably based on CSO data.

The MyHome 'index' is just information about asking prices. Your predictions weren't on asking prices. We'll be using official CSO data to measure how right/wrong you were...

gaius c

It's very simple. More stock has been added and it is more expensive than existing stock so average asking prices are up.
Actual selling prices are down.

The Spider

Deleted User wrote: »

:rolleyes: You are just trying to get a rise out of us but...!

(sigh) This doesn't say a single thing about your prediction. You are predicting 16-20% rises in the year 2015 presumably based on CSO data.

The MyHome 'index' is just information about asking prices. Your predictions weren't on asking prices. We'll be using official CSO data to measure how right/wrong you were...

Ha ha, yup, ah we'll see I have 9 months left.

The Spider

The Spider wrote: »

Ha ha, yup, ah we'll see I have 9 months left.

It's good value in that sense!

MAJJ

Bob24 wrote: »

Yes: at least in Dublin asking prices are increasing (can be seen on MyHome and Daft) and selling prices are decreasing (can be seen on PPR and CSO reports).

Maybe a shift of strategy from EAs: they used to advertise lower prices to attract more buyers and generate bidding wars and are now advertising higher prices to increase people's expectation and make them feel like they are gettign a good deal of they buy below asking price.

I really see this happening now at the moment and agree. Gauis_C summed it up too.

Ixelles been in a few of those stalemates recently too, even the EAs are telling me the vendors are unrealistic and they won't budge.

All my experience is in D14/D16.

Jake Stiles

NinjaTruncs wrote: »

Asking prices are way up in SCD, especially with Sherry Fitz. A house I am looking at Sherry has listed at 15% more than the last house to have sold in the same estate. The last house to sell was in better condition and sold in the summer of last year so it's hard to see that prices have moved on that much since then. Needless to say the current house hasn't received any offers yet.

Have noticed the same myself. Nice to know I'm not the only thinking that.

Jake Stiles

NinjaTruncs wrote: »

Asking prices are way up in SCD, especially with Sherry Fitz. A house I am looking at Sherry has listed at 15% more than the last house to have sold in the same estate. The last house to sell was in better condition and sold in the summer of last year so it's hard to see that prices have moved on that much since then. Needless to say the current house hasn't received any offers yet.

Have noticed the same myself. Nice to know I'm not the only one thinking that.

mickman

My opinion is that we will see rises this year or nearly 20%

1. Election is approaching so govt will reverse or at least partially reverse public sector pay cuts
2. Variable rates will be cut , possibly as much as 1%
3. Light commercial vehicle sales up 55%
4. Low supply of quality housing

All of the above will create a feel good factor in the economy and will result in higher prices (my opinion)

Theboinkmaster

mickman wrote: »

My opinion is that we will see rises this year or nearly 20%

1. Election is approaching so govt will reverse or at least partially reverse public sector pay cuts
2. Variable rates will be cut , possibly as much as 1%
3. Light commercial vehicle sales up 55%
4. Low supply of quality housing

All of the above will create a feel good factor in the economy and will result in higher prices (my opinion)

you think in 2015 (so from 1 Jan 15 to 31 Dec 15) prices will rise 20% :eek:

not a chance IMO - I think will go down slightly (5%) to stay flat for the calendar year. The peak of this mini bubble was end of last summer and prices and been easing since then, viewings a lot quieter etc. End of CGT, new mortgage rules and most importantly sentiment will all contribute to market easing IMO.

Sala

I have put in a bid on a house... allegedly a quick sale as they are sale agreed elsewhere, my bid is the highest bid still, only 4% below asking... and not a word from them. House was asking 11% more than what others are selling for, although it's nicer. I suspect now they are sitting on my bid and were actually hoping to get in excess of the asking.

mickman

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

you think in 2015 (so from 1 Jan 15 to 31 Dec 15) prices will rise 20% :eek:

not a chance IMO - I think will go down slightly (5%) to stay flat for the calendar year. The peak of this mini bubble was end of last summer and prices and been easing since then, viewings a lot quieter etc. End of CGT, new mortgage rules and most importantly sentiment will all contribute to market easing IMO.

why do you think viewings have been quieter?

New mortgage rules will have a very small effect

Sentiment is very positive

Prices have risen in Q1- not as fast as last year but they are still rising. Where you see they have eased ? This isnt true

mickman

mickman wrote: »

why do you think viewings have been quieter?

New mortgage rules will have a very small effect

Sentiment is very positive

Prices have risen in Q1- not as fast as last year but they are still rising. Where you see they have eased ? This isnt true

Fair play for putting a number on it. Very high in my opinion but time will tell.

Take your point about possible pay rises and the cost of money potentially getting cheaper.

But I can't see 20%. I can barely see 2%!

You say prices are rising but I think you've been reading a MyHome press release (in the pages of the newspapers or on the radio waves). They are talking about asking prices - that is all.

Can we all agree that whatever predictions we make we'll measure them against official CSO sales figures rather than asking prices or anecdotes?

By that measure, prices fell in Jan and Feb. They fell. Down. So to get your 20% you need around 23% from here to December. If that happened, we'd be at about 50% rise over 30 months.

The fact that prices shot up last year actually makes your prediction less likely to come true, in my opinion.

But your guess is as good as mine* so we'll have to wait and see.

*I don't actually believe that - that's what makes it interesting

Just for posterity and because some influenced by estate agents and property websites, here are the CSO data for 2015 to date:

January: -1.4% nationwide: (Dublin house prices -2.1%)
February: -0.4% nationwide: (Dublin house prices -1.0%)

They were discussed here at the time. Could be a blip; there have been drops early in previous years followed up increases so I'm not suggesting this is a trend. But -3.1% on Dublin houses in two months is significant and makes double-digit growth for the year less likely.

It's basically a battle between low supply + rising sentiment + cheap money on one side and mortgage regulations + end of CGTE on the other.

Given the rises last year I'd expect these to more or less cancel each other out rather than deliver -20% or +20% swings. (Note: I was hopelessly wrong this time last year )

TheDriver

Reading the PPR, good houses well kept are making more than last year. Maybe 10-20% more but there was v little to compare them to. Houses not well kept or standard fittings aren't selling as well. With stock the way it is, I think it will continue as such.....

Sala

Sala wrote: »

I have put in a bid on a house... allegedly a quick sale as they are sale agreed elsewhere, my bid is the highest bid still, only 4% below asking... and not a word from them. House was asking 11% more than what others are selling for, although it's nicer. I suspect now they are sitting on my bid and were actually hoping to get in excess of the asking.

Just got update, no longer a suspicion, the vendor is holding out for the asking. Am out.

Sentiment is a funny thing. Two weeks ago the headlines were all about CSO data showing a second consecutive month of price drops. People I spoke to were getting (perhaps unduly) worried/excited about a double-dip crash.

Now that's a distant memory and everyone is fixed on the MyHome survey showing rising asking prices. There's a sense that the price dip is history and things are on the up - hence sellers holding out for better prices.

We dropped out of a bidding war reluctantly last month. Very hard to do. We had already gone about 10k beyond the limit we set ourselves ('What's 10k in the long run' etc.) but you have to draw a line somewhere.

johnp001

http://www.newstalk.com/Newstalks-2014-property-review

James Nugent from Lisney - speaking in December 2014 wrote:

"On the residential side, if you see the same increases that we've seen this year - go to the airport and leave the country."

http://www.ronanlyons.com/2015/01/05/expectations-credit-and-house-prices/

Ronan Lyons on Daft Q4 report in January 2015 wrote:

For me, the key takeaway is as follows: house prices fell in the final quarter of 2014 and it seems very unlikely to have been statistical noise or a seasonal effect.

Since that time the Central Bank rules have been introduced in a much less watered down form than was generally expected and public sentiment has turned negative on property prices.

While it would be great for the country if property prices could have stalled and remained static instead of reversing this would be completely unprecedented behaviour for a herd-mentality driven market.
Prices have been experiencing double digit rises in Dublin for the last 18 months but now the sentiment caused by the spectacular price increases based on tiny amounts of transactions has run out and it seems far more likely that there will now be spectacular falls rather than the fabled "soft landing".

crisco10

The thought just occurred to me to that the idea of a flat (or inflation matched) housing market is completely foreign to my head. As a millenial, I've only ever know house prices flying up or crashing down.

Surely that's not right?

Barely Hedged

johnp001 wrote: »

http://www.newstalk.com/Newstalks-2014-property-review


http://www.ronanlyons.com/2015/01/05/expectations-credit-and-house-prices/


Since that time the Central Bank rules have been introduced in a much less watered down form than was generally expected and public sentiment has turned negative on property prices.

While it would be great for the country if property prices could have stalled and remained static instead of reversing this would be completely unprecedented behaviour for a herd-mentality driven market.
Prices have been experiencing double digit rises in Dublin for the last 18 months but now the sentiment caused by the spectacular price increases based on tiny amounts of transactions has run out and it seems far more likely that there will now be spectacular falls rather than the fabled "soft landing".

What probability do you attach to the term "likely"?

What percentage drop do you call "spectacular falls"?

In the recent commentary on property prices, who has described 2015 as a "soft landing"?

Bob24

crisco10 wrote: »

The thought just occurred to me to that the idea of a flat (or inflation matched) housing market is completely foreign to my head. As a millenial, I've only ever know house prices flying up or crashing down.

Surely that's not right?

We I guess a sustainable property market in a health economy would see moderate increases which are in line with how inflation and/or the average industrial wage are increasing.

But yeah ... as funnily mentioned in a previous post, if that's what you want you'd better head to the airport and get on a plane :-)

johnp001

Barely Hedged wrote: »

In the recent commentary on property prices, who has described 2015 as a "soft landing"?

Posts in this thread above talk about the possibility of a stabilisation in prices in 2015 as the end result now that price rises have stopped, I don't recall any using the term soft landing.
The "fabled soft landing" I referred to was that predicted by the establishment in the situation, simliar to now, when the previous period of property price increases came to an end.
e.g. http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/peter-nyberg-tells-banking-inquiry-soft-landing-was-quite-unlikely-1.2041451

And with further reference to the likelihood or not of a "soft landing" this time around, this is an interesting article from last month at the banking enquiry:

Professor Aherne wrote:

Professor Ahearne had been telling the Banking Inquiry that there are virtually no examples of a property boom ending in a "soft landing".

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/lenihans-advisor-property-market-crashed-the-year-before-anyone-noticed-664801.html

gaius c

Sala wrote: »

I have put in a bid on a house... allegedly a quick sale as they are sale agreed elsewhere, my bid is the highest bid still, only 4% below asking... and not a word from them. House was asking 11% more than what others are selling for, although it's nicer. I suspect now they are sitting on my bid and were actually hoping to get in excess of the asking.

That's pretty much uniform across the market these days. Every house seems to have a hidden reserve that is higher than the asking, probably the figure required to clear the (formerly NE) mortgage.

Had it ourselves. Reserve price was €15k higher than the asking.

Sala

gaius c wrote: »

That's pretty much uniform across the market these days. Every house seems to have a hidden reserve that is higher than the asking, probably the figure required to clear the (formerly NE) mortgage.

Yes I just got word they want the asking. I'm out. At 4% below!!

Barely Hedged

johnp001 wrote: »

Posts in this thread above talk about the possibility of a stabilisation in prices in 2015 as the end result now that price rises have stopped, I don't recall any using the term soft landing.
The "fabled soft landing" I referred to was that predicted by the establishment in the situation, simliar to now, when the previous period of property price increases came to an end.
e.g. http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/peter-nyberg-tells-banking-inquiry-soft-landing-was-quite-unlikely-1.2041451

And with further reference to the likelihood or not of a "soft landing" this time around, this is an interesting article from last month at the banking enquiry:

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/lenihans-advisor-property-market-crashed-the-year-before-anyone-noticed-664801.html

Just to summarise from above, correct me if I'm wrong, but you're equating 2007/08 to now and saying were standing on the edge of a cliff about to fall off?

Can you quantify the two points from my previous post that you didn't respond to in the above?

Thanks

boogaloop

Asking prices and the bulk of sale agreed prices in Galway city have increased in Jan & Feb.
Little demand seems to still be leading to bidding wars & quick sales.

No new builds (other than one-off houses) that I know of in the city, which puts further pressure.

As another poster mentioned, crap houses are remaining on the market but almost all 3/4 bed semis for less than 260k are being snapped up.

Pretty much anything that goes to auction is selling at well above the amv.

Interesting. Are you an estate agent? How do you know the bulk of sale agreed prices have risen?

El_Dangeroso

boogaloop wrote: »

Asking prices and the bulk of sale agreed prices in Galway city have increased in Jan & Feb.
Little demand seems to still be leading to bidding wars & quick sales.

No new builds (other than one-off houses) that I know of in the city, which puts further pressure.

As another poster mentioned, crap houses are remaining on the market but almost all 3/4 bed semis for less than 260k are being snapped up.

Pretty much anything that goes to auction is selling at well above the amv.

That's not been my experience of the Galway city market.

I'm finding though vendor expectations are still high, bidding is sluggish and viewings are not that busy, EA's are calling me for a change!

Also in auctions, there's only been two small auctions so far this year, mostly crappy houses in the middle of nowhere and at the DNG one a house in salthill sold for 50K less than a similar house went for last July.