Property Market 2015

@Boogaloop

My anecdote (from commuter belt, mostly Kildare): Last year from April to October houses seemed to go quickly and the ones were were interested in generally went well beyond asking.

Asking prices are often higher now but than six months ago but houses are not shifting. Bids are well below asking and there are stand-offs between reluctant sellers and bidders who can go no further.

This week a house behind me came back to market having one sale agreed in March; another one in the next town went sale agreed two weeks ago and came back to market today (same agents, same prices - people just couldn't come up with the money when it came to the crunch).

I viewed, one of the houses above and it was pretty busy (open viewing) but five weeks later there were no offers. Three weeks after that there was an offer about 5% off asking and then it went sale agreed. Now it's back on sale again. Last year it would have definitely gone in two weeks, probably for more than the asking.

@Boogaloop it might just be a passing phase/run of bad luck where a few houses you've viewed have been snapped up. Hope the tide turns for you.

johnp001

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Just to summarise from above, correct me if I'm wrong, but you're equating 2007/08 to now and saying were standing on the edge of a cliff about to fall off?

Can you quantify the two points from my previous post that you didn't respond to in the above?

Thanks

I ignored the request to quantify what "far more likely" meant as I don't know a meaningful answer to such a question. You also asked what I meant by "spectacular" which was quite clear from the context in which it was used.

For the record I think there is a 0% likelihood that double digit price inflation can be sustained through 2015.
An end to such a boom in property prices without a subsequent bust has 0% precedence.
And if we are on the edge of a cliff about to fall into a property bust I am 100% definite we would be getting the same reassurance from vested interests and the media that we got the last time as the government tries to postpone the inevitable until after the next general election (same as the last bust)

Amidoman

Ok so...I would like all that to be true. I mean I would easily resign and get my deposit refunded now and wait a few more months to see what happens. Then if nothing comes up I would simply reapply but that means more deposit to be paid but still fine. I may even wait a year to see what happens. But how do you see rent prices in coming months/years? All is fine for as long as you own a house already. I pay rent. I will pay 14400euro this year only. Then I suppose the landlord will increase rent to at least 1300 a month meaning 1200 euro a year on top of current spending. My distance to work and slow buses even on empty roads (SDC at 6:30am) don't make it easy and moving to where I paid deposit on means actually 3xlonger distance but quicker commuting.
So if raising rent is a factor would you buy now knowing you want to have children soon and having probably a last to buy your own place and actually save on that in opposition to paying rent?

Barely Hedged

johnp001 wrote: »

I ignored the request to quantify what "far more likely" meant as I don't know a meaningful answer to such a question. You also asked what I meant by "spectacular" which was quite clear from the context in which it was used.

For the record I think there is a 0% likelihood that double digit price inflation can be sustained through 2015.
An end to such a boom in property prices without a subsequent bust has 0% precedence.
And if we are on the edge of a cliff about to fall into a property bust I am 100% definite we would be getting the same reassurance from vested interests and the media that we got the last time as the government tries to postpone the inevitable until after the next general election (same as the last bust)

Bust, boom, vested interests. All vague unsubstantive terms unless you attach what you believe to be the associated percentage falls as a result of their influence on the market.

For the record also, if you think there's a bust coming in Ireland, you're going to be caught with your trousers down on that one.

So many of the principal economic indicators paint a different picture to your opinion

mr_seer

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Bust, boom, vested interests. All vague unsubstantive terms unless you attach what you believe to be the associated percentage falls as a result of their influence on the market.

For the record also, if you think there's a bust coming in Ireland, you're going to be caught with your trousers down on that one.

So many of the principal economic indicators paint a different picture to your opinion

Like the 100,000 plus PDHs and 30,000 plus BTL mortgages in default? Or perhaps you are referring to the income growth which is still in negative territory or the CPI which is barely in positive territory. Or are you referring to the rigged GDP numbers, the majority of the growth in which is comprised of overseas contract manufacturing (no impact on the economy) and Investment (NAMA deleveraging)? I do agree that there is some pick up in consumer sentiment however this is more than offset by the CB rules, the CGT exemption ending and a change in property related sentiment - people are widely and openly talking about price falls for the first time since 2011

Bob24

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/loss-of-property-may-occur-in-47-of-proposed-deals-on-arrears-1.2162581

Don't know how reliable it is, but they are saying:

"The rate of house repossession in Ireland is likely to ramp up significantly in the coming months with new figures showing nearly half of the “proposed solutions” for distressed borrowers may involve the loss of properties."

mr_seer

Bob24 wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/loss-of-property-may-occur-in-47-of-proposed-deals-on-arrears-1.2162581

Don't know how reliable it is, but they are saying:

"The rate of house repossession in Ireland is likely to ramp up significantly in the coming months with new figures showing nearly half of the “proposed solutions” for distressed borrowers may involve the loss of properties."

There is no denying that there are thousands of repossession cases in the system however I simply cannot see the government allowing any meaningful number of repossessions to take place in an election year. As to what they will do, I have no idea. My best guess is that they will make the court system operate in an even slower fashion while putting pressure on the banks to 'do deals'. Any such approach will likely just prolong the pain of those in arrears and those on variable rates who have to subsidise them

murphaph

Repossessions don't add supply as someone is usually in occupation of the unit and they have to live somewhere.

mr_seer

murphaph wrote: »

Repossessions don't add supply as someone is usually in occupation of the unit and they have to live somewhere.

That is true. With regard to the Dublin market however, if someone is going to rent in commuterville, logic and fairness would suggest that it should be somebody who cannot/will not pay Dublin prices. Someone who has defaulted on a mortgage won't be getting another one any time soon so I don't think they'll be competing with buyers

Bob24

mr_seer wrote: »

I simply cannot see the government allowing any meaningful number of repossessions to take place in an election year.

Yes I would agree with you there - not sure how reliable the info from the IT is.

murphaph wrote: »

Repossessions don't add supply as someone is usually in occupation of the unit and they have to live somewhere.

Granted a repossessed property is not a new property. But it is likely a new property up for sale.

Barely Hedged

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Bust, boom, vested interests. All vague unsubstantive terms unless you attach what you believe to be the associated percentage falls as a result of their influence on the market.

For the record also, if you think there's a bust coming in Ireland, you're going to be caught with your trousers down on that one.

So many of the principal economic indicators paint a different picture to your opinion

@Barely what do you think will happen this year (according to the official CSO figures for 2015)? I think Spider went with 16-20%; was it MickMan who went for 20%; and it looks like JohnP is expecting a negative number.

I go for slightly negative-to-flat for the year (let's say -3% - +1% just for the sake of it!). JohnP has a point about soft landings being a myth but I also get that the economy at least feels like it has the wind at its back (even if the GDP figure is irrelevant). Supply is tight; CB rules will tighten demand.

Hit us with some numbers. One of us is bound to be right (eventually)

P. Breathnach

crisco10 wrote: »

The thought just occurred to me to that the idea of a flat (or inflation matched) housing market is completely foreign to my head. As a millenial, I've only ever know house prices flying up or crashing down.

Surely that's not right?

I think housing prices are always a bit more volatile than other markets, because people don't make their decisions on price alone. They are affected by the availability and cost of finance, and have been influenced in their behaviour by government policy (grants, development levies, stamp duty rates, mortgage interest relief, etc.).

Over the medium to long term, one might expect a broad parallel between movements in property prices and the general level of inflation. But not in the short term.

noniej

El_Dangeroso wrote: »

That's not been my experience of the Galway city market.

I'm finding though vendor expectations are still high, bidding is sluggish and viewings are not that busy, EA's are calling me for a change!

Also in auctions, there's only been two small auctions so far this year, mostly crappy houses in the middle of nowhere and at the DNG one a house in salthill sold for 50K less than a similar house went for last July.

I can't wait to get back to Ireland to snap up one of those crappy houses in the middle of nowhere! I've done my dash with a semi - why anyone thinks it's desirable to have neighbours living on top of you I don't know.

MarkAnthony

noniej wrote: »

I can't wait to get back to Ireland to snap up one of those crappy houses in the middle of nowhere! I've done my dash with a semi - why anyone thinks it's desirable to have neighbours living on top of you I don't know.

Schools, Universities, shops, not being broken into and held hostage for 11 days before anyone notices, stuff to do, cinemas, place not smelling of cow pats...

househero

mickman wrote: »

My opinion is that we will see rises this year or nearly 20%

1. Election is approaching so govt will reverse or at least partially reverse public sector pay cuts
2. Variable rates will be cut , possibly as much as 1%
3. Light commercial vehicle sales up 55%
4. Low supply of quality housing

All of the above will create a feel good factor in the economy and will result in higher prices (my opinion)

I am of the same opinion that increased public sector wages will increase house prices. Not by the extreme you quoted though.

Even if house prices stay the same in 2015. It looks like with EU QE depreciation, in real terms the price will have risen. €1 now will be worth around €1.02 this time next year, so a €200,000 house will be worth €202,000 (in real terms) if prices stay the same... Confused much? Hahaha

House prices will rise if the banks are forced to reduce mortgage rates (ongoing variable rate investigation vs bank interbank lending rates) although Noonan is dragging his heels saying THE BANKS need to investigate (as if self regulation worked before noonan)





My prediction

Noonan is the worst thing for house prices, if he dies house prices will rise with a new dovish finance minister.

Public sector pay will rise

Private sector pay will rise towards year end, tax's will soften. Sentiment will increase and the rest of the world will start paying attention to our growing GDP figures.

There is a risk from the UK housing marker which is WAY over priced and never saw the drops we did. In the UK £2m+ property is about to get taxed to crap, these people are selling up and moving out of Londin, we could see a big pick up un the high end market. Some €4m+ country mansions in my area have recently sold, they have been up for sale for 6 years. There is a risk that Greece will leave the euro, which is bad as they are dragging down the euro which is good for us as a net exporting nation. Money is once again flowing out of Asia and in to the west, we should see 4-5 years of muted but sustained growth before the next crash.


For all the bears looking for a crash, the property (and economic) market is slow to react to bad data. If you are sure of a crash, you can be sure it will happen in 2/3 years (when things may have changed). I saw the economic crash in 06, sold up then spent 2 and a half years wondering what th f was going on. I bought again in 2013, where I though I saw the bottom.


We will see a 4% rise in sale prices. With a deflationary year, the real rise will be 5-6%.

househero

Bob24 wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/loss-of-property-may-occur-in-47-of-proposed-deals-on-arrears-1.2162581

Don't know how reliable it is, but they are saying:

"The rate of house repossession in Ireland is likely to ramp up significantly in the coming months with new figures showing nearly half of the “proposed solutions” for distressed borrowers may involve the loss of properties."

Repossession do NOT mean new houses on the market. I can personally show you houses I know for a fact have been repossessed 2 years ago, that are still empty and NOT FOR SALE.

You could even say, repossessions would reduce the housing stock pool in the short term 2/3 years.

There is a large amount of market control being exercised by the gov owned banks.

Amidoman

Just one person answered my questions so once again in short.
I'm turning 40 this year. We want to have children soon. Buying after will be nearly impossible with current prices. Buying in Dublin is already impossible (unless we go for Finglas or a bad energy rating older house in Lucan for example). We are to buy a new house waiting to be built. Foundations are there. It will be built only after the cntract is signed. It is in a small town/village by the beach just outside Dublin. We pay rent 1200 a month in a 2bed apt, expect another rise from January to at least 1300. The house will be ready end August which means a trouble if prices go down before it is ready.
Now would you.buy knowing this is probably your last chance to buy? Would you buy knowing your repayments will be lower than rent? Would you expect siignificant price drops in a turist place (beach, summer)? Would you buy knowing the prices may.drop in long term but you are not looking to make profit on it jjst to live there? And then would you actually go for it knowing paying it back for 5-10 years may.be not enough to sell and take a good deposit with you to buy in Dublin later? Although I'm sick.of Dublin and I would prefer that village (7k people anyway).

Villa05

Amidoman wrote:

Just one person answered my questions so once again in short. I'm turning 40 this year. We want to have children soon. Buying after will be nearly impossible with current prices. Buying in Dublin is already impossible (unless we go for Finglas or a bad energy rating older house in Lucan for example). We are to buy a new house waiting to be built. Foundations are there. It will be built only after the cntract is signed. It is in a small town/village by the beach just outside Dublin.

You sound like you would be under pressure very quickly if % rates were to rise. Can I ask the house price to family income ratio.

It all sounds very 2005/2006 ish around these boards lately. It would be a tragedy if the very same circumstances were to lead to many more young people being made debt slaves for the rest of their lives while there is an investigation into the almost identical circumstances a decade ago.

Buying a basic requirement should not be a Russian roulette decision.

mickman

Amidoman wrote: »

Just one person answered my questions so once again in short.
I'm turning 40 this year. We want to have children soon. Buying after will be nearly impossible with current prices. Buying in Dublin is already impossible (unless we go for Finglas or a bad energy rating older house in Lucan for example). We are to buy a new house waiting to be built. Foundations are there. It will be built only after the cntract is signed. It is in a small town/village by the beach just outside Dublin. We pay rent 1200 a month in a 2bed apt, expect another rise from January to at least 1300. The house will be ready end August which means a trouble if prices go down before it is ready.
Now would you.buy knowing this is probably your last chance to buy? Would you buy knowing your repayments will be lower than rent? Would you expect siignificant price drops in a turist place (beach, summer)? Would you buy knowing the prices may.drop in long term but you are not looking to make profit on it jjst to live there? And then would you actually go for it knowing paying it back for 5-10 years may.be not enough to sell and take a good deposit with you to buy in Dublin later? Although I'm sick.of Dublin and I would prefer that village (7k people anyway).

Sounds like your mind is made up and you just want us to agree.

It's your decision and yours only - if you want to live there and can afford it then buy it

I would say tge banks already know they are cutting rhe variable rates substantially this year. The only way banks will offer the low fixed rates they are offering now is if they know the variable will be dropping substantially

The_Conductor

Amidoman wrote: »

Just one person answered my questions so once again in short.
I'm turning 40 this year. We want to have children soon. Buying after will be nearly impossible with current prices. Buying in Dublin is already impossible (unless we go for Finglas or a bad energy rating older house in Lucan for example). We are to buy a new house waiting to be built. Foundations are there. It will be built only after the cntract is signed. It is in a small town/village by the beach just outside Dublin. We pay rent 1200 a month in a 2bed apt, expect another rise from January to at least 1300. The house will be ready end August which means a trouble if prices go down before it is ready.
Now would you.buy knowing this is probably your last chance to buy? Would you buy knowing your repayments will be lower than rent? Would you expect siignificant price drops in a turist place (beach, summer)? Would you buy knowing the prices may.drop in long term but you are not looking to make profit on it jjst to live there? And then would you actually go for it knowing paying it back for 5-10 years may.be not enough to sell and take a good deposit with you to buy in Dublin later? Although I'm sick.of Dublin and I would prefer that village (7k people anyway).

Amidoman- you are turning 40 and planning on having children.
Get away from looking at property and its value today or tomorrow- you need a property to live in, to bring children up in, to suit your lifestyle and where you plan to be for the next 20 or more years.

If you can get a nice enough property- that suits your lifestyle, in a location you'd like to bring up children- at a price you can afford- and you cannot find a more suitable property (price/location/property type etc) elsewhere- buy it.

There are some new builds happening- even in places like Lucan- but they will be out of the reach of most ordinary mortals. Lucan has a couple of hundred 500k+ houses coming on stream (Rokeby and elsewhere)- these are purely aspirational for most normal folk.

Forget about what 'might' happen in the next year- you are not buying the house as an investment- by your own admission- you are seeking a nice property to bring up a family in.

Get out of the mindset of putting a sticker price on your property today/next year/5 years time- its a very bad way of looking at an asset that you intend to purchase primarily for its utility value.

Also- if you are genuinely thinking of buying for the sake of buying- and selling a couple of years down the road- then don't buy. I don't know if you have ever moved house with children- its not a viable option.........

Mr. teddywinkles

Hope it all works out for the optimistic people on here.
This all sounds like noughties stuff to me.
Next thing people will be saying jaysus yad be mad not to buy a second house

gaius c

Last four houses we've looked at have been vacant. Actually make that five. There's a lot of landlords looking to get out of the landlord business (or they are being instructed to).

Bob24

gaius c wrote: »

Last four houses we've looked at have been vacant. Actually make that five. There's a lot of landlords looking to get out of the landlord business (or they are being instructed to).

Have seen quite a many empty apartments as well (in very high demand areas, there is no way they would remain empty for very long if someone was trying to rent them). Was wondering why so many landlord would leave the place empty for that long (usually they would be up for sale for a while, going sale agrees, and at least for 50% of them be advertised again after a few weeks). Pretty strange ...

Amidoman

The_Conductor wrote: »

Amidoman- you are turning 40 and planning on having children.
Get away from looking at property and its value today or tomorrow- you need a property to live in, to bring children up in, to suit your lifestyle and where you plan to be for the next 20 or more years.

If you can get a nice enough property- that suits your lifestyle, in a location you'd like to bring up children- at a price you can afford- and you cannot find a more suitable property (price/location/property type etc) elsewhere- buy it.

There are some new builds happening- even in places like Lucan- but they will be out of the reach of most ordinary mortals. Lucan has a couple of hundred 500k+ houses coming on stream (Rokeby and elsewhere)- these are purely aspirational for most normal folk.

Forget about what 'might' happen in the next year- you are not buying the house as an investment- by your own admission- you are seeking a nice property to bring up a family in.

Get out of the mindset of putting a sticker price on your property today/next year/5 years time- its a very bad way of looking at an asset that you intend to purchase primarily for its utility value.

Also- if you are genuinely thinking of buying for the sake of buying- and selling a couple of years down the road- then don't buy. I don't know if you have ever moved house with children- its not a viable option.........

Thank you. This is exactly what I think right now and it was just my wife who considered selling it after some time and moving back to Dublin or even back to Poland.
As for the value to income ratio it works exactly 3.5 at the moment. But like I said we would pay back less than rent at the moment and definitely less than rent after another rise. This is why I wanted to get a house. To live in, raise children and enjoy life the way I want not the way I'm forced to...
And I haven't made my ming yet. This is why I asked those questions. I don't want to become a slave of my debt in a country that become my home 10years ago. But I.want.to stay here and I have a good career path here too.

mickman

Amidoman wrote: »

Thank you. This is exactly what I think right now and it was just my wife who considered selling it after some time and moving back to Dublin or even back to Poland.
As for the value to income ratio it works exactly 3.5 at the moment. But like I said we would pay back less than rent at the moment and definitely less than rent after another rise. This is why I wanted to get a house. To live in, raise children and enjoy life the way I want not the way I'm forced to...
And I haven't made my ming yet. This is why I asked those questions. I don't want to become a slave of my debt in a country that become my home 10years ago. But I.want.to stay here and I have a good career path here too.

Buy the house so man . Sounds good

The_Conductor

Amidoman- make sure both you and your wife are 100% singing off the same hymn sheet on this- if you are not both in agreement- don't do it. From what you have just said there- it sounds like you are a lot more attached to living here (as in- in Ireland)- than she is. If you do not both come to the same frame of mind- buying a house is the last thing you should be doing..........

househero

You can't buy a house with a mortgage without becoming a slave to debt. If you want to avoid the slave bit you have to save up, you can still buy habitable houses in Ireland for less than 40k.

Allow me to say a chat forum is the very last place on earth I would base my decision on buying a house or moving country.

You have no idea how many nutters are on these chat forums, sometimes I wonder if the HSE uses boards.ie as therapy for the unhinged hahaha


Sit down with your woman and see what the craic is. Only you and her can decide what's right for your family.

In the end we bought a mamouth house here at a good price and are saving for a second home away, waiting for their property crash, and with apartments hitting 200k, I'm expecting it soon. We have a 50k deposit ready and waiting for their misery. We live here, so a roof over our heads here was priority number 1. The dreams of the woman are still alive with the deposit on stand by.

Amidoman

househero wrote: »

You can't buy a house with a mortgage without becoming a slave to debt. If you want to avoid the slave bit you have to save up, you can still buy habitable houses in Ireland for less than 40k.

Allow me to say a chat forum is the very last place on earth I would base my decision on buying a house or moving country.

You have no idea how many nutters are on these chat forums, sometimes I wonder if the HSE uses boards.ie as therapy for the unhinged hahaha


Sit down with your woman and see what the craic is. Only you and her can decide what's right for your family.

In the end we bought a mamouth house here at a good price and are saving for a second home away, waiting for their property crash, and with apartments hitting 200k, I'm expecting it soon. We have a 50k deposit ready and waiting for their misery. We live here, so a roof over our heads here was priority number 1. The dreams of the woman are still alive with the deposit on stand by.

Ok... What I.meant was rather getting in trouble if another property crash is on the way as predicted by some even here. I would never base my decision on the forum threads and replies. Maybe I am just looking to justify my point of view. My wife wants the house too but she would consider going back.to Poland because of her parents living there. My parents passed away 6 and 7years ago. My brother lives there, my sister with her family lives here. There is no doubt I have nothing to look for in Poland although it is my homeland and I love the views and nearly everything except for goverments and their work...
Ireland is.my home now and if I had own business now I would not even care about the place and I would even consider buying a house for 40k (Longford or just outside Longford if I'm correct, new houses I think) without even having to pay so much money back to banks. For this reason I need to be still close enough to Dublin and commute. Hopefully not for long.

househero

Amidoman wrote: »

Ok... What I.meant was rather getting in trouble if another property crash is on the way as predicted by some even here. I would never base my decision on the forum threads and replies. Maybe I am just looking to justify my point of view. My wife wants the house too but she would consider going back.to Poland because of her parents living there. My parents passed away 6 and 7years ago. My brother lives there, my sister with her family lives here. There is no doubt I have nothing to look for in Poland although it is my homeland and I love the views and nearly everything except for goverments and their work...
Ireland is.my home now and if I had own business now I would not even care about the place and I would even consider buying a house for 40k (Longford or just outside Longford if I'm correct, new houses I think) without even having to pay so much money back to banks. For this reason I need to be still close enough to Dublin and commute. Hopefully not for long.

Booms and busts have been happening for hundreds of years. They are not new and they will happen again. This one just passed was as bad as it gets. Don't be scared.

If you are buying a house to live in it. You don't care how much its worth, you just have to be able to COMFORTABLY afford the repayments. Enjoy your house and your life.

I will tell you right now as a fact in the next 10 years you will see at sone point prices fall, but they might rise fir 8 years before that happens. And they will rise again after hahaha. Just don't buy at the top and sell at the bottom.

MarkAnthony

I think it was P. Breanth(spelling) that commented that he'd gained a fortune and lost a fortune and never knew. Great attitude to have.

Live in it and only worry if you need to sell.