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Property Market 2015
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Join Date:Posts: 30620
MarkAnthony wrote: »I think it was P. Breanth(spelling) that commented that he'd gained a fortune and lost a fortune and never knew. Great attitude to have.
Live in it and only worry if you need to sell.
It is a good attitude to have. I did the same (with Deutsch Telekom shares) back in the 90s. As long as you use it as a learning experience- even if the lesson is more philosophical than anything else- its a good lesson to have learnt........0 -
The_Conductor wrote: »It is a good attitude to have. I did the same (with Deutsch Telekom shares) back in the 90s. As long as you use it as a learning experience- even if the lesson is more philosophical than anything else- its a good lesson to have learnt........
He was referring to the value of his house that he was happily living in.
I have to admit it's irked me a bit how much I've lost on my apartment, but then I was stupid going in, had I gained then lost it I wouldn't have been worried, as of course, you really gain and lose nothing and I've loved living here.
If I ever get into the bloody house I'm sale agreed on I'm sure it'll lose a bit but meh I need a house and I need one now.0 -
[Deleted User] wrote: »@Barely what do you think will happen this year (according to the official CSO figures for 2015)? I think Spider went with 16-20%; was it MickMan who went for 20%; and it looks like JohnP is expecting a negative number.
I go for slightly negative-to-flat for the year (let's say -3% - +1% just for the sake of it!). JohnP has a point about soft landings being a myth but I also get that the economy at least feels like it has the wind at its back (even if the GDP figure is irrelevant). Supply is tight; CB rules will tighten demand.
Hit us with some numbers. One of us is bound to be right (eventually)
From earlier:Barely Hedged wrote: »Dublin residental -> +5% to 7%. Shortage in supply, wage inflation, CB requirements
Dublin City -> 0% to -5%. Drop in cash buyers
Rural -> +10%0 -
Like the 100,000 plus PDHs and 30,000 plus BTL mortgages in default?
And they will be currently occupied. There's no creation of new housing here. It could also be argued that if repossession takes place this year it will take over a year or two for the bank to get its portfolio of repossessions organised to sell in tranches, thus reducing supply this year.Or perhaps you are referring to the income growth which is still in negative territory
There's a large expectation of wage growth in the private sector this year and cuts to income tax and the USC.or the CPI which is barely in positive territory.
Oil prices fall, CPI falls. Oil prices and Irish property market prices? How much of a contributor do you think it is to it?Or are you referring to the rigged GDP numbers, the majority of the growth in which is comprised of overseas contract manufacturing (no impact on the economy)
Reads like something out of a conspiracy novel.and Investment (NAMA deleveraging)?
Downsizing of NAMA is bad for the country?I do agree that there is some pick up in consumer sentiment however this is more than offset by the CB rules, the CGT exemption ending and a change in property related sentiment - people are widely and openly talking about price falls for the first time since 2011
We haven't even approached the busy time for house sales over the summer months. Of course sentiment will be low as a result too of the recent falls but the same falls happened in January and February 2014
There are price falls but only on houses that have unrealistic asking prices. Houses priced well are selling and quickly.
A previous poster who said there's a "bust" coming - please quote me on this - it's completely laughable and delusional to think that0 -
Barely Hedged wrote: »And they will be currently occupied. There's no creation of new housing here. It could also be argued that if repossession takes place this year it will take over a year or two for the bank to get its portfolio of repossessions organised to sell in tranches, thus reducing supply this year.
See my previous post. Last five houses viewed by us have been vacant. Landlords ARE exiting the market and rental properties are being made vacant to allow this.
This of course is causing further disruption in the rental market but it should settle down as the properties change hands and get occupied.
Moral of the story: there's a fairly high number of empties out there due to flux in the market.0 -
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Join Date:Posts: 30620
See my previous post. Last five houses viewed by us have been vacant. Landlords ARE exiting the market and rental properties are being made vacant to allow this.
This of course is causing further disruption in the rental market but it should settle down as the properties change hands and get occupied.
Moral of the story: there's a fairly high number of empties out there due to flux in the market.
I'd echo that too. We're in a relatively small development here in Lucan (fewer than 35 units). 7 are currently vacant- in various stages of being sold (and of the 7- one has been on and off the market for over 4 years, and one for a year and a half- the others for 4-6 weeks each). In addition- another 2 are tenanted- but the tenants have been issued with notice by landlords who are selling.
All of the properties sold in this small developement since last September (5) were to owner occupiers- none to investors.
I'm also looking to buy (on behalf of an elderly relative who is downsizing at the moment)- and am totally baffled by the contrary approaches on show by various estate agents.
I am not sure what is happening- but the market is on its head- and while volumes may be up- those who are buying and selling are completely atypical.0 -
Barely Hedged wrote: »And they will be currently occupied. There's no creation of new housing here. It could also be argued that if repossession takes place this year it will take over a year or two for the bank to get its portfolio of repossessions organised to sell in tranches, thus reducing supply this year.
Firstly I was referring to economic indicators but yes repossessions will ultimately increase liquidity in the Dublin property market. Illiquidity is one of the key reasons why prices were rising. The average Dublin house changes hands every 60+ years
There's a large expectation of wage growth in the private sector this year and cuts to income tax and the USC.
Expectation maybe. Real wages are still falling
Oil prices fall, CPI falls. Oil prices and Irish property market prices? How much of a contributor do you think it is to it?
Oil will rise and fall. I don't think a fall in oil prices is going to increase Dublin house prices. On the contrary in fact. The fall in oil prices is largely demand related. China is fcuked and the massive drop in demand for oil and other commodities from China has fed the global oversupply. That is why all mineral commodities and oil have fallen in price. If the global economy continues in the doldrums, how do you think this will impact on house prices in Ireland in the medium term?
Reads like something out of a conspiracy novel.
Maybe it does. It is still fact
http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2015/03/24315-theres-no-number-left-untouched.html
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1028697.shtml
Downsizing of NAMA is bad for the country?
I said nothing of the sort. They should sell it all now before the arse falls out of the new bubble that Noonan has created
We haven't even approached the busy time for house sales over the summer months. Of course sentiment will be low as a result too of the recent falls but the same falls happened in January and February 2014
Summer and Christmas are the quiet times for house sales. Spring and Autumn are the busy ones. By Autumn the old AIPs will have been used up so I wouldn't be holding out for lots of transactions then.... unless of course Noonan comes up with some other budget wheeze, FTB giveaway, Help0to Buy scheme etc to give this mini bubble some more legs
There are price falls but only on houses that have unrealistic asking prices. Houses priced well are selling and quickly.
Well priced houses will sell of course. As a matter of fact, I have just bought one. Other houses will drop their prices to compete and hey presto, the market is falling again. It could happen
A previous poster who said there's a "bust" coming - please quote me on this - it's completely laughable and delusional to think that
I'm not saying the market will definitely collapse. No one knows for sure. The evidence is currently pointing to the downside however and it is more compelling than it was in 2007 when the country had zero debt, also the fastest growth in Europe, full employment, etc, etc.0 -
I'm not saying the market will definitely collapse. No one knows for sure. The evidence is currently pointing to the downside however and it is more compelling than it was in 2007 when the country had zero debt, also the fastest growth in Europe, full employment, etc, etc.
You're not saying the market will definitely collapse but you're saying there's a good chance it will.
I'm saying it's absolutely embarrassing to think that. There's nothing compelling about anything you've said. Comparisons to 2007 only diminish your points. It's a lazy and an incorrect comparison I.e. prices in the housing market increased, so they obviously must come down0 -
Barely Hedged wrote: »You're not saying the market will definitely collapse but you're saying there's a good chance it will.
I'm saying it's absolutely embarrassing to think that. There's nothing compelling about anything you've said. Comparisons to 2007 only diminish your points. It's a lazy and an incorrect comparison I.e. prices in the housing market increased, so they obviously must come down
Yes I am saying that there is a good chance that the market will collapse. Price to net disposable income in Dublin is comparable to or higher than the peak of the bubble. I have supported my arguments with facts relating to the economy and the fundamentals which underpin the market. You have used nothing but the usual Indo proletariat arguments to support your points. The only one who is being lazy and incorrect is you. House prices in Dublin are too high and appear unsustainable.0 -
Yes I am saying that there is a good chance that the market will collapse. Price to net disposable income in Dublin is comparable to or higher than the peak of the bubble. I have supported my arguments with facts relating to the economy and the fundamentals which underpin the market. You have used nothing but the usual Indo proletariat arguments to support your points. The only one who is being lazy and incorrect is you. House prices in Dublin are too high and appear unsustainable.
To be honest, I'm sick rehashing the same principle components that will impact irish house prices on this forum only to be met with outlandish statements about China, commodities, oil whatever is flavour of the month/week in The Economist magazine.
I should save myself the bother and setup a template. You don't agree with me, that's fine. We'll agree to disagree. I actively encourage debate. You will learn something that you will not have known otherwise from the other side in a debate. However, I don't believe in anything you've said. Not a single point you've raised would convince me otherwise.
House prices will earn percentage increases in the post I repasted above.
The comparison to the Independent is nothing but an undeserving and cheap shot. I have no time for that newspaper that communicates stories they source from Reuters/Bloomberg/PA in a false way0 -
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Barely Hedged wrote: »To be honest, I'm sick rehashing the same principle components that will impact irish house prices on this forum only to be met with outlandish statements about China, commodities, oil whatever is flavour of the month/week in The Economist magazine.
I should save myself the bother and setup a template. You don't agree with me, that's fine. We'll agree to disagree. I actively encourage debate. You will learn something that you will not have known otherwise from the other side in a debate. However, I don't believe in anything you've said. Not a single point you've raised would convince me otherwise.
House prices will earn percentage increases in the post I repasted above.
The comparison to the Independent is nothing but an undeserving and cheap shot. I have no time for that newspaper that communicates stories they source from Reuters/Bloomberg/PA in a false way
Fair enough if you want to discount macro factors in the world economy (the same could have been said about the subprime crisis which caused the world economic meltdown in 2008) but you cannot ignore domestic house price to net incomes in Dublin.
The thing about house prices as a topic is that it is a terribly emotive issue and you get very retrenched views, hence why it creates such good debate0 -
Fair enough if you want to discount macro factors in the world economy (the same could have been said about the subprime crisis which caused the world economic meltdown in 2008) but you cannot ignore domestic house price to net incomes in Dublin.
The thing about house prices as a topic is that it is a terribly emotive issue and you get very retrenched views, hence why it creates such good debate
The reason I'm discounting it is because it has been proven in the past 30 years that we, as a country and culture, attribute a large part of our disposal income to house repayments.
Added to that, the extra income that is earned from investments, share schemes and bonuses and we see the large increases in prices in desirable areas particularly Dublin.
The amount of times I've read and anecdotally heard people complain about how house price growth outstrips "average income" levels in these areas is laughable. There is still so many areas in Dublin that are affordable on very average incomes. The only people clinging to the belief that they're not are the ones that feel because a house in very desirable areas once sold at a price they deem "affordable" that it will somehow mean revert to this is delusional.
People need to move on. Realise they missed the boat and look at other areas in Dublin that are now affordable to them. Dublin is not unaffordable0 -
Barely Hedged wrote: »The reason I'm discounting it is because it has been proven in the past 30 years that we, as a country and culture, attribute a large part of our disposal income to house repayments.
Added to that, the extra income that is earned from investments, share schemes and bonuses and we see the large increases in prices in desirable areas particularly Dublin.
The amount of times I've read and anecdotally heard people complain about how house price growth outstrips "average income" levels in these areas is laughable. There is still so many areas in Dublin that are affordable on very average incomes. The only people clinging to the belief that they're not are the ones that feel because a house in very desirable areas once sold at a price they deem "affordable" that it will somehow mean revert to this is delusional.
People need to move on. Realise they missed the boat and look at other areas in Dublin that are now affordable to them. Dublin is not unaffordable
That nonsense about people reducing their expectations is the same tosh that was peddled in the last bubble. It is always the comfortably housed who peddle it. Younger people should have the same opportunities to get housing as we have. Look at the few people who are left in this country who are in their late twenties, they have [EMAIL="cr@p"]cr@p[/EMAIL] jobs in most cases and have no hope of buying decent family homes. People refer to Ireland as having a young population but that is only true if you are counting babies. The 20-34 are group is in Canada or elsewhere and very few will return. Who is going to keep the bubble going, especially now with the CB rules coming in? That is why prices have to correlate to incomes. People will only trade down to a certain degree and then they will swap this country for one that gives them a better quality of life0 -
Barely Hedged wrote: »To be honest, I'm sick rehashing the same principle components that will impact irish house prices on this forum only to be met with outlandish statements about China, commodities, oil whatever is flavour of the month/week in The Economist magazine.
I should save myself the bother and setup a template. You don't agree with me, that's fine. We'll agree to disagree. I actively encourage debate. You will learn something that you will not have known otherwise from the other side in a debate. However, I don't believe in anything you've said. Not a single point you've raised would convince me otherwise.
House prices will earn percentage increases in the post I repasted above.
The comparison to the Independent is nothing but an undeserving and cheap shot. I have no time for that newspaper that communicates stories they source from Reuters/Bloomberg/PA in a false way
But here's the thing, your response to posts that suggest a bigger drop that you think is likely is basically all emotion and outrage. It doesn't provide a terribly compelling case.
You're not debating. You're just repeating your own talking points and refusing to engage anybody else's points.0 -
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Join Date:Posts: 13664
The_Conductor wrote: »I'd echo that too. We're in a relatively small development here in Lucan (fewer than 35 units). 7 are currently vacant- in various stages of being sold (and of the 7- one has been on and off the market for over 4 years, and one for a year and a half- the others for 4-6 weeks each). In addition- another 2 are tenanted- but the tenants have been issued with notice by landlords who are selling.
Surely a more sensible approach, at least in the type of property usually purchased by investors, is to keep the tenants in there, jack up the rent, and then advertise the place as having sitting tenants paying X per month. If someone is so desperate to buy that they can't wait the, say, 4 months for the tenants to vacate, one wonders a lot.I am not sure what is happening- but the market is on its head- and while volumes may be up- those who are buying and selling are completely atypical.
I hate to sound like a parrot who has just listened to David McWilliams (who in turn also sounds like a parrot who has listed to someone else's repeated advice), but a good guide is always rental yield.
There are some apartments in Dublin that can get yields of 7-10% in Dublin. Now, these are not great quality apartments so capital appreciation is by no means guaranteed (and there may be cash calls etc from the management company) and while I suspect that rents are at an all time high, I'm not sure that they will drop significantly in the short to medium term (maybe by 10%). But even still, there is still a chance of 5-7% yields in some places, so while 40% increases in price sounds crazy, this also reflects the increases in rent over the last few years.
I guess what I'm saying is that there is still some sanity, even in a crazy world.0 -
johnnyskeleton wrote: »Surely a more sensible approach, at least in the type of property usually purchased by investors, is to keep the tenants in there, jack up the rent, and then advertise the place as having sitting tenants paying X per month. If someone is so desperate to buy that they can't wait the, say, 4 months for the tenants to vacate, one wonders a lot.
Is it possible that landlords who are selling don't believe investors would buy the properties as the yield might be insufficient at current prices, so they need the tenants out of the houses so as to target owner occupiers?0 -
That nonsense about people reducing their expectations is the same tosh that was peddled in the last bubble. It is always the comfortably housed who peddle it. Younger people should have the same opportunities to get housing as we have. Look at the few people who are left in this country who are in their late twenties, they have [EMAIL="cr@p"]cr@p[/EMAIL] jobs in most cases and have no hope of buying decent family homes. People refer to Ireland as having a young population but that is only true if you are counting babies. The 20-34 are group is in Canada or elsewhere and very few will return. Who is going to keep the bubble going, especially now with the CB rules coming in? That is why prices have to correlate to incomes. People will only trade down to a certain degree and then they will swap this country for one that gives them a better quality of life
What opportunities are being restricted? Tell me exactly what area young people should be looking to buy in and at what price you would deem affordable?
Prices correlate to incomes. What incomes are we talking about D4/6 incomes or D22/24 incomes? Specifics otherwise it's just generic, political speak0 -
But here's the thing, your response to posts that suggest a bigger drop that you think is likely is basically all emotion and outrage. It doesn't provide a terribly compelling case.
You're not debating. You're just repeating your own talking points and refusing to engage anybody else's points.
I've mentioned it several times about wage growth expectation. It's coming this year through the employer and income and USC cuts.
Unemployment numbers are falling. Ever hear of non farm payroll day? If you have, please don't dismiss this statistic.
Government refinancing debt at record lows.
European equities racing ahead and large growth potential as opposed to US equities due to QE for the next 2/3 years. What equities does the Irish government hold?
High PMI index = more employers willing to take on employees = more money = heightened importance of employment statistic above.
Falling EUR. Export led economy benefits are obvious.0 -
But here's the thing, your response to posts that suggest a bigger drop that you think is likely is basically all emotion and outrage. It doesn't provide a terribly compelling case.
You're not debating. You're just repeating your own talking points and refusing to engage anybody else's points.
Also, a specific example I can think of where people have missed the boat on price rises and think it's due to decoupled income to price levels:
Firhouse - people could once afford to buy a house there but now must adjust their expectations to 5 minutes down the road in Tallaght.
It's a hard pill for some people to swallow and I've read and heard anecdotally how the blame game gets reasoned out. It's failed logic.
Dublin is affordable, just not where some people think they're entitled to live0 -
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Banks won't give a mortgage on a property with sitting tenants. Or if they do, it'll have a lot of strings attached.Is it possible that landlords who are selling don't believe investors would buy the properties as the yield might be insufficient at current prices, so they need the tenants out of the houses so as to target owner occupiers?0 -
Barely Hedged wrote: »What opportunities are being restricted? Tell me exactly what area young people should be looking to buy in and at what price you would deem affordable?
Prices correlate to incomes. What incomes are we talking about D4/6 incomes or D22/24 incomes? Specifics otherwise it's just generic, political speak
If prices correlate to incomes then the recent rates of price increases brought affordability levels way down as incomes are flat across the recent property market bounce.
I would contend that prices correlate with a willingness and ability to pay that price. i.e. income is a factor but so are credit availability and sentiment.0 -
If prices correlate to incomes then the recent rates of price increases brought affordability levels way down as incomes are flat across the recent property market bounce.
I would contend that prices correlate with a willingness and ability to pay that price. i.e. income is a factor but so are credit availability and sentiment.
That's on the assumption that the prices rose from an already high level. The dogs on the street know that the base from which those prices rose was unrealistically low.
So essentially, prices rise from a really low level to somewhere that stretches some peoples affordability levels. People shout about how prices are now unaffordable rather than saying well, were they going to stay that low forever. Somehow doesn't have the same self pity ring to it?0 -
Barely Hedged wrote: »I've mentioned it several times about wage growth expectation. It's coming this year through the employer and income and USC cuts.
Unemployment numbers are falling. Ever hear of non farm payroll day? If you have, please don't dismiss this statistic.
Government refinancing debt at record lows.
European equities racing ahead and large growth potential as opposed to US equities due to QE for the next 2/3 years. What equities does the Irish government hold?
High PMI index = more employers willing to take on employees = more money = heightened importance of employment statistic above.
Falling EUR. Export led economy benefits are obvious.
A good chunk of that is bird in the hand/bird in the bush stuff.
The reality is that average wages have been and still are falling. There's more people in employment but those new entrants' wages are lower, thus average wages fall.
Re expectations of wage increases, that's speculative because the ISME has warned indigenous companies of the dangers of trying to get into an arms race with the MNC's, who employ a relatively small portion of the workforce.
Most Irish private sector workers are employed by SME's. Their wages won't be going anywhere.The survey from ISME shows that of the 26 per cent who anticipate wage increases in 2015, the increase averages at just above one per cent. Some 70 per cent of SME owner-managers do not expect to change their own wage rate, while 15 per cent believe they will have to further decrease their salaries in the coming year.
It strikes me that you have determined your conclusion and arrange the facts to suit that, ignoring facts that don't agree with your hypothesis.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias0 -
Barely Hedged wrote: »That's on the assumption that the prices rose from an already high level. The dogs on the street know that the base from which those prices rose was unrealistically low.
So essentially, prices rise from a really low level to somewhere that stretches some peoples affordability levels. People shout about how prices are now unaffordable rather than saying well, were they going to stay that low forever. Somehow doesn't have the same self pity ring to it?
Says who?0 -
A good chunk of that is bird in the hand/bird in the bush stuff.
The reality is that average wages have been and still are falling. There's more people in employment but those new entrants' wages are lower, thus average wages fall.
Re expectations of wage increases, that's speculative because the ISME has warned indigenous companies of the dangers of trying to get into an arms race with the MNC's, who employ a relatively small portion of the workforce.
Most Irish private sector workers are employed by SME's. Their wages won't be going anywhere.
It strikes me that you have determined your conclusion and arrange the facts to suit that, ignoring facts that don't agree with your hypothesis.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias
Yep, because markets change direction the exact minute statistics are released and that expectation or anticipation plays no part in it. Apply some common sense.
Pick out the one of many things I say that you have a chance of arguing with and picking one hole in. Everything I have mentioned above are the main economic determinants to a property and financial market. Theyre published and noted on Bloomberg/The FT each week at the start of the week. But sure they wouldn't know a thing would they?0 -
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Barely Hedged wrote: »Yep, because markets change direction the exact minute statistics are released and that expectation or anticipation plays no part in it. Apply some common sense.
Pick out the one of many things I say that you have a chance of arguing with and picking one hole in. Everything I have mentioned above are the main economic determinants to a property and financial market. Theyre published and noted on Bloomberg/The FT each week at the start of the week. But sure they wouldn't know a thing would they?
I just did if you cared to read it.
Can you link to some of the Bloomberg/FT articles predicting Irish house prices to increase please?0 -
Barely Hedged wrote: »That's on the assumption that the prices rose from an already high level. The dogs on the street know that the base from which those prices rose was unrealistically low.
So essentially, prices rise from a really low level to somewhere that stretches some peoples affordability levels. People shout about how prices are now unaffordable rather than saying well, were they going to stay that low forever. Somehow doesn't have the same self pity ring to it?
I don't think it is a given that the lower prices of 2011/12 were the aberration and that the norm is higher prices.
Price increases had been exceeding income increases for considerable time before the first crash - this was why sentiment chased prices as high as it did because people had less purchasing power in the property market as time went on and became desperate to get on the ladder and willing to leverage themselves to an historically unprecedented degree.
This illustrates my point about sentiment being as significant as income level in determining prices.
The only thing that is completely self-evident is that the boom prices were unaffordable, this is proven by the fact that a large proportion of the loans granted to buy at these prices are not being repaid and many of the properties bought at these prices cannot be sold for enough to cover the outstanding loan even many years of repayments later.0 -
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Barely Hedged wrote: »This is pathetic of you don't think 2011/12 price levels were unrealistic.
€120k -€150k for two bedroom apartments in Dublin 2 amongst other mad prices
Again, appeal to emotion and ad hominem.
Can you explain why you consider that those prices constitute outrageously good value?
Please do feel free to compare Dublin to other similarly sized first world cities.
Or are you simply using the "they are so much cheaper than they used to be before" metric?0
This discussion has been closed.
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