Property Market 2015

gaius c

Fkall wrote: »

Again, ignoring land costs how much does it cost t build a 3 bed in Dublin today? Don't forget you need to build to current regulation with appropriate supervision and of course the development levies.

Goodness. Get onto this fella and tell him that he's making a terrible mistake:

Passive houses can be delivered at remarkably low prices. One Wexford-based developer is offering A2 rated certified passive houses - 3-bed semi-ds of over 1,100 sq ft each - for €170,000 each. Guaranteed heating and hot water bills come to just €200 per annum.

That price above includes the cost of land in Wexford so the actual unit build cost of the house is lower. It's very easy to justify all sorts of ridiculous "I'm building at a loss" arguments when you use the Septic Tiger land price in your calculations.

People who bought during the bubble years aren't the only ones with a vested interest in passing the cost of their mistakes onto the next available sap. Builders and developers in trouble with the banks also have a vested interest in inflating their "costs" and minimising the shortfall on the loans they need to pay back.

It's either that or they are excruciatingly inefficient and incompetent at their jobs.

Fkall

gaius c wrote: »

.....


That price above includes the cost of land in Wexford so the actual unit build cost of the house is lower. It's very easy to justify all sorts of ridiculous "I'm building at a loss" arguments when you use the Septic Tiger land price in your calculations.

People who bought during the bubble years aren't the only ones with a vested interest in passing the cost of their mistakes onto the next available sap. Builders and developers in trouble with the banks also have a vested interest in inflating their "costs" and minimising the shortfall on the loans they need to pay back.

It's either that or they are excruciatingly inefficient and incompetent at their jobs.

Going by the age of the management company (9 years) this ghost estate (Maderia Oaks, Enniscorrthy) is being finished off by the bank/developer.

in 2012 €95k would have brought you a house here, although the developer/bank was looking for €300k in 2010.

Ps the current offering here is also €50k to €100k dearer than your typical Enniscorty semi-D which to be fair is not passive certified

MysticalRain

The Spider wrote: »

They won't drop, but I've said previously where I expect things to be, trawl the thread and find it. Prices will finish up at the end of 2015.

As to repossessions, I think you'll find that I've always said there wouldn't be repossessions when prices were dropping as it didn't make sense for he banks to sell at a loss.

Er, no you didn't. You also said there would be mass debt write offs as well now that I think of it (also wrong).
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=84270219&postcount=84

Barely Hedged

Piriz wrote: »

Nobody expressed any "fantasy" as you say that "everyone was going to get their desirable three bed semi in SCD for three times the average industrial wage" that is just nonsense speak from you.

For the record plenty of people do not want to live or buy on SCD, it is not the Mecca to many of us as it is to you and others.

The prevalence of posts that indirectly claim it would make you think otherwise I.e. Dublin is unaffordable, old people should be encouraged to move from their houses in scd etc etc

Barely Hedged

gaius c wrote: »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argumentum_ad_populum

Can YOU explain it to me please?

P.S. You have picked a rather low value for D2. There were individual sales at that level but 2012 still saw apartments selling for €346000 as was the case with Apartment 9 Butlers Court, Sir John Rogersons Quay and Apartment 6, 1821 Existing Building, Lower Mount Street sold for €467k in 2012.

I know of and bought places that match the 2 bed description for that price. They were 55 - 60 sq ft. Can you say the same as the above in the examples you've pointed out?

Barely Hedged

Piriz wrote: »

Have you looked at what 350k buys you in Dublin at the moment... there is not much value there...

Should this be rewritten as have you looked at some very specific postcodes in Dublin ans what 350k gets you

Barely Hedged

johnp001 wrote: »

I was referring to sentiment in the housing market. What caused the negative sentiment was that prices stopped rising and started falling.
People therefore had an expectation that they would be able to buy at some time in the future (even though incomes were falling at that time) so they didn't pull out every stop to borrow more than they could afford to pay unaffordable prices as in 2006/7.

In terms of economic problems in 2015, take your pick.
Greeks printing drachma all weekend and look set to default (possibly as early as next week) is the most imminent one that springs to mind.
The problems caused by the recent property/banking crash have not been tidily resolved by bailing out the banks. That all still has to be paid for.

Best economic scenario is if German economy returns to strong growth in the near future in which case ECB policy will become to raise rates to cool the economy. This increase in interest rates will cause more defaults, because prices have been and are unaffordable, and will reduce property prices.

Any other economic scenario is going to be less desirable. Economic stagnation following a property crash looks like this:

for example...



This seems completely irrelevant to my posts.

I suppose it was just a coincidence then that at the same time sentiment changed, people felt more secure in their jobs as unemployment numbers began to fall and PMI indices began stabilising and improving, amongst other improving economic indicators. These are the principal reasons sentiment changed, nothing else. The rest is just noise.

The good old Greece argument. Take Ireland as an example. No disrespect to Roscommon or Leitrim, but they're the weakest economic counties in Ireland. If they were to leave the Irish economy in the morning, what exactly would be the impact to Ireland?

What happened in Japan is less clear cut and can be argued both ways. Personally I think they're so culturally different from Irish people and Irish people will spend more of their income then save. We're more pragmatic

gaius c

Fkall wrote: »

Going by the age of the management company (9 years) this ghost estate (Maderia Oaks, Enniscorrthy) is being finished off by the bank/developer.

Relevance?

in 2012 €95k would have brought you a house here, although the developer/bank was looking for €300k in 2010.

If you read the article that you linked to, it makes it clear that the 2012 houses were much lower spec so even though prices were lower then, you are comparing apples and oranges.

Also, he is building now so presumably a profit is being turned on his sale price of 170k.

Ps the current offering here is also €50k to €100k dearer than your typical Enniscorty semi-D which to be fair is not passive certified

Apples and oranges. The point is to show that extremely high specification houses can be built for considerably less than what developers claim is the build cost minus land.

johnp001

Barely Hedged wrote: »

I suppose it was just a coincidence then that at the same time sentiment changed, people felt more secure in their jobs as unemployment numbers began to fall and PMI indices began stabilising and improving, amongst other improving economic indicators. These are the principal reasons sentiment changed, nothing else. The rest is just noise.

That is debatable, I don't agree that the very mild economic recovery we experienced was a sufficient driver for large annual price increases in property to be sustained or even upheld.

Barely Hedged wrote: »

The good old Greece argument. Take Ireland as an example. No disrespect to Roscommon or Leitrim, but they're the weakest economic counties in Ireland. If they were to leave the Irish economy in the morning, what exactly would be the impact to Ireland?

The disruptive impact would be huge.
The problem has never been that the EU could not survive without the economic input of Greece so I don't get your point here?

Barely Hedged wrote: »

What happened in Japan is less clear cut and can be argued both ways. Personally I think they're so culturally different from Irish people and Irish people will spend more of their income then save. We're more pragmatic

It is optimistic to think that cultural profligacy would solve the problem rather than just drag it out over a longer period.
It is in no way clear that what happened in Japan is happening or could happen here but it is also very hard to see why it definitely couldn't.

gaius c

Barely Hedged wrote: »

I know of and bought places that match the 2 bed description for that price. They were 55 - 60 sq ft. Can you say the same as the above in the examples you've pointed out?

What was that you were saying about other people extrapolating market trends from personal experience?

Since you're not allowing others to contribute anecdotal evidence, can we re-visit this statement of yours and ask for some actual emperical evidence?

The dogs on the street know that the base from which those prices (2012) rose was unrealistically low.

Barely Hedged

johnp001 wrote: »

That is debatable, I don't agree that the very mild economic recovery we experienced was a sufficient driver for large annual price increases in property to be sustained or even upheld.

Youre neglecting the before and after in your conclusion. You discount how bad things were a few years ago. The economic recovery might have been mild in 2012/13 by 2000's standards but it was a clear indicator. The recovery is definitely not mild now as its successive and growing.

johnp001 wrote: »

The disruptive impact would be huge.
The problem has never been that the EU could not survive without the economic input of Greece so I don't get your point here?

What disruptive impact would be felt by the Irish property market for the next 8 months?

Didnt you also say Greece was going to go bankrupt this week a few days ago?

johnp001 wrote: »

It is optimistic to think that cultural profligacy would solve the problem rather than just drag it out over a longer period.
It is in no way clear that what happened in Japan is happening or could happen here but it is also very hard to see why it definitely couldn't.

People have been talking about Europe =, or could = Japan for the past 5 years. Ive got a feeling they will be still talking about it in another 5.

What impact thats going to have on Irish property prices in the next 8 months - zero, zip, zilch

What are we to make the Daft report? Probably something in it for everyone

helimachoptor

We made a bid over the weekend, 4k more than the previous offer.

Other bidders are now our bid +5k, pretty quick turnaround

Bob24

Deleted User wrote: »

What are we to make the Daft report? Probably something in it for everyone

Indo/Daft wrote:

"The growth also contradicts the Central Statistics Office's (CSO) findings for January and February, which suggested national house prices declined marginally."

"the gap between asking and actual transaction prices is closing, the organisation said."

So they are saying:
- asking prices increasing
- selling precises declining
- gap between asking and selling decreasing

Confirms the selling strategy is changing and sellers are leaning towards advertising for the actual price they are expecting to get or more.

NinjaTruncs

A house I'm looking at listed their asking price ~15% higher than the lest similar house to sell in the same estate. They have just reduced their asking price by ~6% as they had no interested at the list price. Basically generating reports on asking prices is pointless, selling prices are the only metric which can provide valid data.

Barely Hedged

Deleted User wrote: »

What are we to make the Daft report? Probably something in it for everyone

I hate tooting my own horn but theres been so much unbelievable stuff peddled in this thread of late:

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Dublin residental -> +5% to 7%. Shortage in supply, wage inflation, CB requirements

Dublin City -> 0% to -5%. Drop in cash buyers

Rural -> +10%

seamus

Deleted User wrote: »

What are we to make the Daft report? Probably something in it for everyone

People chasing "value". At the end of the day, people want to buy their homes, they want them as close to cities as they can, and they will stretch themselves as far as they can to do it.

With the new mortgage rules in place, low building output in Dublin and a slew of unrealistic prices in Dublin, the wave travels outwards and those now locked out of the Dublin market will look to buy in the commuter belts and the other major cities. People want to buy and they want to buy yesterday, so it's no good telling them that prices will come back or affordability will come back. They're not prepared to wait.

The only thing that's changed since the last boom is a relative understanding of value; that paying €500k for a 3-bed semi in a barely serviced estate outside the M50 is not a sane purchase. Otherwise all of the other factors - "rent is dead money", "get on the property ladder" - remain.

MarkAnthony

seamus wrote: »

"rent is dead money", "get on the property ladder" - remain.

The problem with both of those statements; they're true, at least in Dublin.

The current situation with rents in untenable; it prevents many people from saving, security is dubious and even at lower rents it's still dead money on a month to month basis.

What needs to happen is a sea change to 'getting on the ladder' not being seen as a bad thing, but of course that is dependant on a functioning market. People should stay at home longer, save more, rent for a shorter period of time and not expect to buy the forever house on the first attempt.

I bought my first place at the age of 20 in the commuter towns of Edinburgh with the aid of a guarantor and 100% mortgage. Things we blame for the property bubble, and yes abused they were. There needs to be a pragmatic approach taken for different market segments. It's not helped by giving FTBers a different status.

@Barely

Daft's report is better than MyHome's report as it includes asking prices and sales prices. And shows the narrowing gap between the two. Asking prices alone are not useful.

Despite this, the Irish Times report chooses to go only with the figure for asking prices while ignoring the (positive but less so) findings from the price register. It's as if they don't want to highlight the shortcomings of the MyHome approach for some reason...

The Indo at least mentions that CSO figures show prices fell slightly in Jan and Feb:

The growth also contradicts the Central Statistics Office's (CSO) findings for January and February, which suggested national house prices declined marginally.

However, the CSO does not include properties bought with cash rather than loans in its calculations.

@Barely: Don't tell fibs - you love tooting your own horn
Also, could you keep your horn under wraps until official stats arrive? Daft/MyHome numbers are interesting but not as toot-worthy as CSO data.

I won't begrudge you a good self-tootin' if your predictions pan out at year end. (Don't over auto-toot, you'll go blind!)

tharmor

I am waiting for 6-8 months to buy a house once i get the deposit....let the price figures dance up or down

Eugene Norman

We won't know much until the price register, right?

Daft didn't mention as far as I can see that they've seen large increases in stock.

handlemaster

http://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/asking-price-for-homes-up-twice-as-fast-outside-the-capital-31122854.html



Indo market analysis today

Piriz

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Should this be rewritten as have you looked at some very specific postcodes in Dublin ans what 350k gets you

yes I've been looking at houses in East Cabra, Phibsboro, Navan Road, Northstrand, Stoneybatter, plenty of houses for sale in these areas for less than 350k but little that appeals as I don't see good value...

in fairness i seen loads of value in 2013 but I didn't have a permanent job then so didn't qualify for a mortgage... I'm hoping we return to 2013 value...

johnp001

Eugene Norman wrote: »

We won't know much until the price register, right?

Daft didn't mention as far as I can see that they've seen large increases in stock.

Dublin stock is up 54% on this time last year. At last report (December figures) it was up 33% on a year previously.

The_Conductor

Piriz wrote: »

little that appeals as I don't see good value...

What are you suggesting is 'good value'?
What criteria are you using, financial and/or otherwise, to decide something is, or is not 'good value'?

Piriz wrote: »

I'm hoping we return to 2013 value...

Lol- its not impossible- it is highly improbable though.......
In 2013- the people who the banks were happy to lend to, in the main- didn't want to borrow- which is why despite tight supply-prices were so low- demand was subdued.

A return to 2013 values in a Dublin context- would suggest price falls of 30-40% from todays values. Not impossible- but incredibly unlikely.

Piriz

The_Conductor wrote: »

What are you suggesting is 'good value'?
What criteria are you using, financial and/or otherwise, to decide something is, or is not 'good value'?



Lol- its not impossible- it is highly improbable though.......
In 2013- the people who the banks were happy to lend to, in the main- didn't want to borrow- which is why despite tight supply-prices were so low- demand was subdued.

A return to 2013 values in a Dublin context- would suggest price falls of 30-40% from todays values. Not impossible- but incredibly unlikely.

ok i'll admit I'm a bit fussy, my criteria is looking for a house with decent room proportions / good use of space, 70 - 90sqm, decent natural light, a place to park a car, a house that does not require 40-50k refurbishment, i would prefer a 3 bed but have looked at 2, i like a bit of old character, a bit of community feel, i want to be able to access the south side relatively easy as I work in south co. Dublin, i've seen some great properties but recently when i'm ready to buy don't see much...

for instance, this is a nice house but i wouldn't pay the asking:
http://www.daft.ie/sales/3-ulster-terrace-north-strand-dublin/1036146/

this is nice too but bit outside budget...
http://www.daft.ie/sales/8-ardpatrick-road-navan-road-d7-dublin/1036441/#img=8

johnp001

The_Conductor wrote: »

What are you suggesting is 'good value'?
What criteria are you using, financial and/or otherwise, to decide something is, or is not 'good value'?



Lol- its not impossible- it is highly improbable though.......
In 2013- the people who the banks were happy to lend to, in the main- didn't want to borrow- which is why despite tight supply-prices were so low- demand was subdued.

A return to 2013 values in a Dublin context- would suggest price falls of 30-40% from todays values. Not impossible- but incredibly unlikely.

With supply increasing hugely and accelerating and demand being hit by the ability of buyers to borrow post CB rules and also a dip in sentiment. I don't think a very significant reversal on last year's gains in the dublin property market is particularly unlikely.

gaius c

handlemaster wrote: »

http://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/asking-price-for-homes-up-twice-as-fast-outside-the-capital-31122854.html



Indo market analysis today

It's hilarious. The entire article is "up up up" and the one possible grey cloud in the sky gets carpet bombed by qualifiers.

The growth also contradicts the Central Statistics Office's (CSO) findings for January and February, which suggested national house prices declined marginally.
However, the CSO does not include properties bought with cash rather than loans in its calculations.

One_Of_Shanks

House sale prices have actually dropped last couple of months.

So why the sudden focus on "asking prices"?

Eugene Norman

One_Of_Shanks wrote: »

House sale prices have actually dropped last couple of months.

So why the sudden focus on "asking prices"?

Here's the thing. I'm mid 30's. I used to read newspapers for what I thought were facts. Now I know it's all an agenda. All hail the Internet.

The irish times and the independent sell to house owners and look back to the property boom with fondness, the property supplements paid their wages and offset any internet related declines. There's a sense now in those quarters that those times were the natural order of things and the last few years were an aberration. RTE's frontline staff are up to their necks in debt for the ballsbridge gaff bought in 2006. Politicans are politicians. More homes owners than buyers. The "opinion formers" opinions are biased.

Not that I trust everybody here, agendas are legion, but there's more than one side and not just one agenda.