Property Market 2015

Piriz

interesting article in the journal

http://www.thejournal.ie/readme/mortgage-arrears-ireland-2-2040663-Apr2015/

Bob24

Piriz wrote: »

interesting article in the journal

http://www.thejournal.ie/readme/mortgage-arrears-ireland-2-2040663-Apr2015/

Good old common sense is always nice to read :-)

soccercrew

Read a few last pages of this thread and its more a bickering thread. All I want to know is the property situation in 2015. Is it still on this rise in Dublin. Has it stagnanted anywhere and is it still on the drop anywhere.

Villa05

soccercrew wrote:

Read a few last pages of this thread and its more a bickering thread. All I want to know is the property situation in 2015. Is it still on this rise in Dublin. Has it stagnanted anywhere and is it still on the drop anywhere.

Load up on as much debt as you can and buy gorse hill. If you can't pay it back, the idiots that run the country will rob from children, the sick, and the vulnerable to make sure your debt is repaid.

That appears to be the current situation. No point in trying to predict the market containing that level of stupidity.

The_Conductor

Having read the newspapers this morning- unfortunately Villa05 is right.
It appears that repaying your debts here has become entirely optional- and the government would rather saddle your children and your grandchildren- alongside those of prudent borrowers who pay their own way- and entirely innocent taxpayers- with your debts.

I genuinely cannot see any future in this country for anyone anymore. I'm not even cynical about it anymore- the worse fears of ordinary decent taxpayers- are coming to pass.

I, for one, am going to bring up and educate my children to the best of my abilities, liquidate my assets, and get the hell out of here.

Piriz

I wonder what the 'idea' of the government bailing out those in long term arrears will do to the sentiment of sellers and buyers?

I know this is just a proposal at present but something is coming down the line from the government... and it could impact value, interest rates, supply, demand, rental sector, who knows...

NIMAN

Kite-flying for now?

We will probably see something a lot watered-down, but help for them nonetheless.

Bob24

I personally don't see it working in practice (I think shared ownership would be too constraining for both banks and distressed borrowers), but McWilliams has a solution to suggest: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2015/04/13/what-roosevelt-did-wont-work-here-but

Haha - this made me larf this morning
http://irishmoralhazardorganisation.com/

There does seem to be a bit of a backlash against the idea of using tax dollars to pay the mortgages of those who can't/won't - mostly because it's so hard to tell the cannots from the will nots, and because making it easy for those who do not might encourages those who do to...not. See?

Peist2007

The Spider wrote: »

No sense getting all annoyed or 'trying to catch me out' there's a big difference between someone who hasn't bought and is thinking about it finding that they can only afford a commuter county so that's the only option they can take if they want to buy, to a family living in a house for over ten years with the kids in school and all, that goes with that, and taking the house off of them and telling them to uproot their lives and move down the country.

The difference being the first point is your decision to buy in a commuter county, you more than likely don't have kids in school (I know lots of people rent with kids in school, but for arguments sake FTB's are less likely).

or you can stay renting, either way you have no skin in the game.

The second option means you have no choice it's foisted upon you and you certainly have skin in the game, the bank/government takes your house tells you to uproot the family and feck off down the country.


Massive difference

So having a family should preclude one from having to meet their mortgage obligations?

JoeyJJ

Deleted User wrote: »

Haha - this made me larf this morning
http://irishmoralhazardorganisation.com/

There does seem to be a bit of a backlash against the idea of using tax dollars to pay the mortgages of those who can't/won't - mostly because it's so hard to tell the cannots from the will nots, and because making it easy for those who do not might encourages those who do to...not. See?

Signature 127 has an interesting name.

fret_wimp2

The_Conductor wrote: »

Having read the newspapers this morning- unfortunately Villa05 is right.
It appears that repaying your debts here has become entirely optional- and the government would rather saddle your children and your grandchildren- alongside those of prudent borrowers who pay their own way- and entirely innocent taxpayers- with your debts.

I genuinely cannot see any future in this country for anyone anymore. I'm not even cynical about it anymore- the worse fears of ordinary decent taxpayers- are coming to pass.

I, for one, am going to bring up and educate my children to the best of my abilities, liquidate my assets, and get the hell out of here.

Its also rewarding bad/reckless decision making.

From a purely selfish point of view, during the boom i could see that taking out a 500k mortgage when on roughly the average wage was a terrible idea, frought with risk of losing my home should i lose my job or become unable to pay my bills.

Tons of people either ignored this risk or just didnt take the time to see it and now those people will get a free ticket (metaphorically speaking).

So now Im still without a house, still unable to afford in Dublin, and the people who made stupid decisions now have houses, and will also have help paying them off.


Decisions like this are why so many younger people are emigrating. its an avenue i am now considering despite having a good job and plenty of options.

MayBea

helimachoptor wrote: »

We made a bid over the weekend, 4k more than the previous offer.

Other bidders are now our bid +5k, pretty quick turnaround

How did you get on? We have spent the last week moping around after we lost a bidding war to an investor

helimachoptor

MayBea wrote: »

How did you get on? We have spent the last week moping around after we lost a bidding war to an investor

we went 5K above the other bidders.. they withdrew.. and now having a PM conversation with them on the property pin :pac:

But the vendor came back and rejected the offer this morning(greedy fcukers)
We arent going any higher so will leave the bid there as we are still on the hunt

helimachoptor

helimachoptor wrote: »

we went 5K above the other bidders.. they withdrew.. and now having a PM conversation with them on the property pin :pac:

But the vendor came back and rejected the offer this morning(greedy fcukers)
We arent going any higher so will leave the bid there as we are still on the hunt

How far off the asking was your bid?

(That's gas about the Pin!)

helimachoptor

Deleted User wrote: »

How far off the asking was your bid?

(That's gas about the Pin!)

30K, but house requires about 50K of improvements.

House originally was @ 575 last year and had a bid of 595 which fell through, asking price brought down to 545 start of this year and the only interest has been me and the guy on the pin who has now withdrawn (EA confirmed this yesterday)

So now our bid is the only one on the table and they've rejected it.

No doubt they are shocked and disgusted that the earlier bid (which fell through so shouldn't freaking count!) is no longer on the table. I suppose that number is still anchored in their heads so it might take a bit of cajoling from the EA to help them see reality.

But who knows, maybe there is a buyer out there with that kind of money. If it were this time last year, it would probably get the asking price regardless of its condition. Under the new lending restrictions there must be fewer people with the LTV and LTI to bid at that level.

You're living an interesting little case study on how things may (or may not) be shifting - keep us all posted!

helimachoptor

Deleted User wrote: »

No doubt they are shocked and disgusted that the earlier bid (which fell through so shouldn't freaking count!) is no longer on the table. I suppose that number is still anchored in their heads so it might take a bit of cajoling from the EA to help them see reality.

But who knows, maybe there is a buyer out there with that kind of money. If it were this time last year, it would probably get the asking price regardless of its condition. Under the new lending restrictions there must be fewer people with the LTV and LTI to bid at that level.

You're living an interesting little case study on how things may (or may not) be shifting - keep us all posted!

Yeah the EA has said as much, they have 595 in their head and are not realising last years mini bubble looks to be over. We're not in a chain, we can close quickly but that doesnt appeal to the vendors it seems.


Yeah will do, we have our eye on a few houses, this was our preferred house but no married to it by any means so we'll keep on looking

MayBea

helimachoptor wrote: »

30K, but house requires about 50K of improvements.

House originally was @ 575 last year and had a bid of 595 which fell through, asking price brought down to 545 start of this year and the only interest has been me and the guy on the pin who has now withdrawn (EA confirmed this yesterday)

So now our bid is the only one on the table and they've rejected it.

I came across the vendors grudgingly knocking a couple of percent off only even in cases where the house is on a market for a good few months.
Denial is a wonderful defense mechanism as it eases the pain, but it also delays the day of reckoning

johnp001

MayBea wrote: »

I came across the vendors grudgingly knocking a couple of percent off only even in cases where the house is on a market for a good few months.
Denial is a wonderful defense mechanism as it eases the pain

This must be a dangerous game for vendors to play with so much new supply coming on the market and a dwindling supply of buyers who may not be subject to stricter lending criteria.

helimachoptor

johnp001 wrote: »

This must be a dangerous game for vendors to play with so much new supply coming on the market and a dwindling supply of buyers who may not be subject to stricter lending criteria.

yeah you would think so.. not for the vendors of the house we want though :pac:

NinjaTruncs

There appears to be a big shift in the market between the second half of last year and this. In the area I'm looking, last year houses would have offers of asking or more within a few days of viewing. I've had an offer on a house for a month now which the owners aren't willing to accept, but in that time they haven't had a single counter offer, mine was the first offer. The agent keeps telling me it's worth more but the market obviously doesn't think so or there would have been some other interest. Some agents, one in particular, seem to have gotten a little carried away with the price expectations they are giving their clients.

The bid I made is equal to what the last house in similar condition sold for in Q3 of last year, if the agent hadn't of gotten carried away with their valuation the owners would be well on their way to closing their sale. As it now stands I can see better value coming onto the market and it's possible the offer I have on the house I'll withdraw as i'm starting to to think it's overvalued the house.

MayBea

However the bidding wars are alive and well. Some of the houses we viewed over a last few weeks:
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/4-birchfield-park-goatstown-dublin-14/3111798, now Sale Agreed (afaik) at 530K
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/35-belarmine-court-stepaside-dublin-18/3118510, the latest bid is 490K

gaius c

johnp001 wrote: »

This must be a dangerous game for vendors to play with so much new supply coming on the market and a dwindling supply of buyers who may not be subject to stricter lending criteria.

Yeah. Dublin is racing towards 5k on myhome with incredible speed.

Do you know how that would compare with this time last year Gauis C?

johnp001

gaius c wrote: »

Yeah. Dublin is racing towards 5k on myhome with incredible speed.

Supply is increasing and the rate of increase is also increasing.

Deleted User wrote: »

Do you know how that would compare with this time last year Gauis C?

Going by Daft reports I think it was 1 Dec 2014 33% up on 1 Dec 2013
1 March 2015 54% up on 1 March 2014

gaius c

johnp001 wrote: »

Supply is increasing and the rate of increase is also increasing.



Going by Daft reports I think it was 1 Dec 2014 33% up on 1 Dec 2013
1 March 2015 54% up on 1 March 2014

There's a few lads on the pin who keep count and from memory those two percentages are what they have reported.

Great - thanks!

I definitely see an increase in properties coming on stream but good to know it's not just seasonal.

gaius c

Deleted User wrote: »

Great - thanks!

I definitely see an increase in properties coming on stream but good to know it's not just seasonal.

People with email alerts set up might not see much of this new stock as a lot of it is priced very high.

Kinet1c

Still following our area of interest with a very close eye. Property's being relisted with other estate agents as well as current estate agents having them listed on just one of daft/myhome and when no interest is shown they throw it up on the other. Hasn't been much dropping from the properties I've saved and any I've seen sale agreed are in that state for months now. Vendors appear to be waiting for another jump which I can't see happening and I'll be eagerly awaiting the time when all those 90% AIP have expired.