Property Market 2015

Barely Hedged

helimachoptor wrote: »

guys thanks for the comments. plenty of interesting points

We have gone an additional 5K up this morning. At our present rate of saving this is about 1.5 months.

at the moment we are in a lease until December, the house is an executor sale so probate is likely to take some time and the house needs a couple of months of renovations anyway.


I expect a quick reply from the EA, if its a no, we'll wave goodbye and keep on looking.

We are in no rush to buy, this house suits us and suits our plans for the future but having bought a house in 2007 we learnt our lessons :eek:

Thanks for clearing that up and best of luck with it.

My point is along the lines of not forgetting the opportunity cost to you of not pushing a bit more. Your financial circumstances would allow it

Barely Hedged

Bob24 wrote: »

So the buyer is a bad negotiator according to your standards and should have offered significantly less than they amount they really want to pay. Doesn't mean 20k euros is peanuts to them (which is the discussion here).

Are you even reading my posts.

I never said they were a bad negotiator.

I never said they should have offered significantly less.

And ive said 20k should be considered in relative terms. If youre not prepared to understand that and equate it to the price of 4% on a pint, i dont think were going to get anywhere.

Bob24 wrote: »

If someone has a deposit of 300k and is buying a 500k house. An extra 20k will add 10% to their mortgage.
Even if the deposit is lower the extra 4% on the total price will always mean more than 4% extra on the mortgage.

And to put things in perspective, 20k at 4% interest rate on a 30 years mortgage are likely costing costing the buyer 20k+ extra in interests (exact costs depending on the total mortgage value). So the extra 20k on their offer are actually costing them over 40k if you take the interests into account.

As a previous poster have mentioned - saying 20k is nothing when buying a 500k property is just a sign of people who have lost track of the value of money and the financial commitment they are getting into (unless the person is a fairly wealthy cash buyer in which case I would agree with your point).

Im sorry - youre saying somebody with a 300k deposit would get hung up on 20k?

Annnnd, somebody with a 300k deposit will get a mortgage for 30 years.

The value of money is in the eye of the beholder and their earning power.

Id say somebody with 300k in cash for a 500k house would not be too worried about 20k

fret_wimp2

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Just to be clear, were talking about 20k not 40k or 50k.

So its because people are Irish they attach a siginificant weight to 20k?

Common sense is realising that weighting is attached to earning power, investments and wealth not because of nationality.

Who is ever happy with the seller asking for more? Its a negotiation! 20k, relatively speaking is 4%. Im saying, relative to his earning power, 4% is not a lot.

im not relenting that 20k is a lot of money. if i earned 200k per year, 20k is still a shedload of money.

But regardless, you say 4% is not a lot, this still leads back to the solution of "throw money" at the problem.

I used the term Irish, in respect to the Irish market, but the most of my friends are irish ( i did grow up here after all) and more than a few of them are in over their heads with serious debt.

We (people buying in the irish market), need to make our realistic offer, and stop bending to the whim of sellers who as mentioned see their asking as the minimum price expected. The option to simply walk away is not exercised nearly enough and even if 20k is a small number to me, its no reason to get ripped off, simply because you can afford to be.

I can afford a pint for 7 quid, but im not going to pay it!

gaius c

€20,000?
Pfft...was looking down the back of my couch at the weekend and found €46,000.

BH
An extra €20,000 is over double that over the lifetime of the mortgage. Maybe it doesn't mean much to you but that's money that would put a child through college or cover a fair whack of renovation work.

Barely Hedged

fret_wimp2 wrote: »

im not relenting that 20k is a lot of money. if i earned 200k per year, 20k is still a shedload of money.

But regardless, you say 4% is not a lot, this still leads back to the solution of "throw money" at the problem.

I used the term Irish, in respect to the Irish market, but the most of my friends are irish ( i did grow up here after all) and more than a few of them are in over their heads with serious debt.

We (people buying in the irish market), need to make our realistic offer, and stop bending to the whim of sellers who as mentioned see their asking as the minimum price expected. The option to simply walk away is not exercised nearly enough and even if 20k is a small number to me, its no reason to get ripped off, simply because you can afford to be.

I can afford a pint for 7 quid, but im not going to pay it!

Im sorry, but youre very wrong.

Im not going to debate any further the simple fact that what value is, is dependent on the earning power and wealth of an individual.

fret_wimp2

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Im sorry, but youre very wrong.

Im not going to debate any further the simple fact that what value is, is dependent on the earning power and wealth of an individual.

so 20k is not a lot of money? thanks for clarifying. And here i am wasting my years saving when 20k is just so easy to come by.

Anyway, i guess you win with the "im not talking to you anymore" argument.

Barely Hedged

gaius c wrote: »

€20,000?
Pfft...was looking down the back of my couch at the weekend and found €46,000.

BH
An extra €20,000 is over double that over the lifetime of the mortgage. Maybe it doesn't mean much to you but that's money that would put a child through college or cover a fair whack of renovation work.

I was talking about relative to the asking price. The key word is relative. If you could do a word count on that and the amount of times its appeared in my previous posts, then it might finally sink in with some people.

Instead we have shock and outrage over man saying 20k is not a lot of money. Its been framed as if i said i have 20k on my toilet roll that i use each week

Barely Hedged

fret_wimp2 wrote: »

so 20k is not a lot of money? thanks for clarifying.
But i guess you win with the "im not talking to you anymore" argument.

I incorrectly highlighted the full sentence. Check my edit

fret_wimp2

Barely Hedged wrote: »

I was talking about relative to the asking price. The key word is relative. If you could do a word count on that and the amount of times its appeared in my previous posts, then it might finally sink in with some people.

Instead we have shock and outrage over man saying 20k is not a lot of money. Its been framed as if i said i have 20k on my toilet roll that i use each week

Lets say i earn 40k per year. 20k is a huge amount. its 20k.
Lets say i earn 200k per year. 20k is still a huge amount. yes, i understand that "relative" to 200k, 20k is a smaller amount, but fact is 20k is still not a trivial amount of money to simply be chucked at a seller to make a headache of negotiation go away, or to satiate their unrealistic asking price.

Getting screwed on price is getting screwed price by 10k or 20k, regardless of if you earn 40k or 200k.

The_Morrigan

Barely Hedged, Fret_wimp2, gauis c - cut out the squabbling please.

helimachoptor

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Thanks for clearing that up and best of luck with it.

My point is along the lines of not forgetting the opportunity cost to you of not pushing a bit more. Your financial circumstances would allow it

We have a good sized deposit which is growing each month.
By the end of the year we'll have increased our deposit quite a bit

We can pay more if want to, we are a one child family at the minute but thats likely to grow to 3 over the next 3 years.

Can we pay more, yes? do we want to? No obviously.
There is a price we wont go above, we're pretty much at that point now.

If the offer this morning is refused we'll walk away and keep on looking, I would expect the agent to call back in a few weeks, then he has to hope we havent bought somewhere else..

Barely Hedged

helimachoptor wrote: »

We have a good sized deposit which is growing each month.
By the end of the year we'll have increased our deposit quite a bit

We can pay more if want to, we are a one child family at the minute but thats likely to grow to 3 over the next 3 years.

Can we pay more, yes? do we want to? No obviously.
There is a price we wont go above, we're pretty much at that point now.

If the offer this morning is refused we'll walk away and keep on looking, I would expect the agent to call back in a few weeks, then he has to hope we havent bought somewhere else..

Thats fair enough. Putting a cap on the notional amount youre willing to spend is a good tactic from the outset. Hopefully the fact that you have offered again will stir the negotiation process in your favour and some common ground will open up.

helimachoptor

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Thats fair enough. Putting a cap on the notional amount youre willing to spend is a good tactic from the outset. Hopefully the fact that you have offered again will stir the negotiation process in your favour and some common ground will open up.

Lets hope.. will update once i hear from the EA..

Villa05

Barely Hedged wrote:

Im sorry - youre saying somebody with a 300k deposit would get hung up on 20k?

The art of negotiating involves knowing your strengths. There are not too many that can put half a mill together to buy a house especially with the new lending rules.

Use that fact to your advantage not your detriment

Barely Hedged

Villa05 wrote: »

The art of negotiating involves knowing your strengths. There are not too many that can put half a mill together to buy a house especially with the new lending rules.

Use that fact to your advantage not your detriment

What makes you think that "There are not too many that can put half a mill together to buy a house especially with the new lending rules."

Personal experience?

gaius c

Im sorry - youre saying somebody with a 300k deposit would get hung up on 20k?

Yes. Rich people get that way by minding the cents because the euros look after themselves, not by chucking it about carelessly. 20k is 6.7% of your deposit amount. Anybody who operates a real business will fight you for a tenth of that percentage unless they really need to hand it over.

Irish people are terrible at negotiation. Witness Sean Dunne's "negotiation skills" when he bought the D4 hotel site!

Barely Hedged

gaius c wrote: »

Yes. Rich people get that way by minding the cents because the euros look after themselves, not by chucking it about carelessly. 20k is 6.7% of your deposit amount. Anybody who operates a real business will fight you for a tenth of that percentage unless they really need to hand it over.

Irish people are terrible at negotiation. Witness Sean Dunne's "negotiation skills" when he bought the D4 hotel site!

Do you consider somebody with a 300k deposit rich?

johnp001

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Do you consider somebody with a 300k deposit rich?

Someone who can save 5k every 1.5 months would be very likely to be in the top decile of households according to household income statistics.

Barely Hedged

johnp001 wrote: »

Someone who can save 5k every 1.5 months would be very likely to be in the top decile of households according to household income statistics.

I didnt ask that. I asked, do you consider them rich?

NinjaTruncs

To most people the thought of having 300K in cash they would consider that rich, the poster in question is saving more in a year than many people earn.

Lets answer it a different way, someone capable of saving 300K isn't going throwing money around and clearly controls what they spend it on. If getting 300K in cash was easy everyone would have it. Even at their current rate of savings it will still take 7 years to save that amount.

If it's their dream house and perfect sure there is a point in saying put the other 20K to the price, however whats to say they will accept that. Seller could easily then ask for more and hold out for more, should he then add another 20K to his offer?

Barely Hedged

NinjaTruncs wrote: »

To most people the thought of having 300K in cash they would consider that rich, the poster in question is saving more in a year than many people earn.

Lets answer it a different way, someone capable of saving 300K isn't going throwing money around and clearly controls what they spend it on. If getting 300K in cash was easy everyone would have it. Even at their current rate of savings it will still take 7 years to save that amount.

If it's their dream house and perfect sure there is a point in saying put the other 20K to the price, however whats to say they will accept that. Seller could easily then ask for more and hold out for more, should he then add another 20K to his offer?

I wouldnt consider somebody having 300k in cash rich. Many professional couples can earn these sums of cash in 3/4/5 years through promotions, employee share schemes, personal investments, large fixed salaries and bonuses. The professional class of workers is not a small cohort and multiples of salary is not a good determinant of their ability to save.

Adding less than 4% of the asking price to your offer is not "throwing money around". Its simply incorrect to say that, regardless if its 20k. Its relative to the persons earning power.

I never suggested your last point. 20k was merely the largest range he should offer in to conclude negotiations successfully. I said, anything after that he should walk away as the seller is not negotiating fairly.

gaius c

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Do you consider somebody with a 300k deposit rich?

Nonsense leading question to distract from your notion that buyers should simply throw money at intractable vendors.

Barely Hedged

gaius c wrote: »

Nonsense leading question to distract from your notion that buyers should simply throw money at intractable vendors.

You think somebody with 300k is rich. I was simply looking for confirmation you believe that statement. You could have answered yes or no. It wasnt leading anywhere.

If increasing the original offer up to a maximum of 4% of the asking is throwing money around, what percentage isnt throwing money around?

You then used, as an example, a bankrupt developer who has flown in the face of laws in many jurisdictions to surmise that Irish people are terrible at negotiation. As the original reference to negotiation was to make a counter offer of up to a maximum of 4% of the asking price, i can only interpret that you feel that this is in the same vein as Sean Dunnes negotiation skills.

The_Morrigan

I'm locking this up so that you can all walk away from the keyboards for a while. Too much sniping going on here and there is already a mod warning on thread to cut it out.

johnp001

handlemaster wrote: »

http://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/return-of-property-porn-as-prices-go-through-the-roof-30857063.html


What are your predictions for 2015 property market both rental and sales.

Latest odds on Paddy Power's house prices 2015 book have shifted significantly towards predicting a decrease.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/current-affairs/house-prices
In February/March the shortest odds were on increases in the +4% to +8% range, now favourite is 0 to -4%

El_Dangeroso

johnp001 wrote: »

Latest odds on Paddy Power's house prices 2015 book have shifted significantly towards predicting a decrease.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/current-affairs/house-prices
In February/March the shortest odds were on increases in the +4% to +8% range, now favourite is 0 to -4%

These are the predictions that hold most weight in my opinion because Paddy Power actually have 'skin in the game' for their opinion, i.e. it will hurt their bottom line to be wrong. All the media outlets (and most on this forum!) whatever their opinion don't have the same consequences.

helimachoptor

Cheers for the re-open mods.

Just an update.. basically no update, haven't heard back from the EA.

johnp001

El_Dangeroso wrote: »

These are the predictions that hold most weight in my opinion because Paddy Power actually have 'skin in the game' for their opinion, i.e. it will hurt their bottom line to be wrong. All the media outlets (and most on this forum!) whatever their opinion don't have the same consequences.

Paddy Power are definitely putting their money where their mouth is when they take money on his book and no-one can accuse them of having a vested interest for distorting their odds.

To be fair though, some people on this forum may also be experiencing the consequences of their decisions.
E.G. those who are holding out on a sale in the belief that the prices will be higher next year, those who are holding of buying believing they will buy cheaper in the summer when the CB rules will fully apply. Whether they are right or wrong will have serious impacts on their bottom line too... :eek:

El_Dangeroso

johnp001 wrote: »

Paddy Power are definitely putting their money where their mouth is when they take money on his book and no-one can accuse them of having a vested interest for distorting their odds.

To be fair though, some people on this forum may also be experiencing the consequences of their decisions.
E.G. those who are holding out on a sale in the belief that the prices will be higher next year, those who are holding of buying believing they will buy cheaper in the summer when the CB rules will fully apply. Whether they are right or wrong will have serious impacts on their bottom line too... :eek:

Yes that's true, also investors who are speculating on price rises, but I don't think there's too many of them about nowadays.

jimosterberg

A few 3 and 4 beds in the areas I've been looking have had significant decreases in asking price recently after a period of not selling. One or two houses in very popular estates are still selling quickly, some at slightly above asking but overall there seems to have been a big change from the second half of last year.