Property Market 2015

polydactyl

The prices being quotes today for the new estate in Drumcondra have nowhere to go but down. They are mad.

MayBea

polydactyl wrote: »

The prices being quotes today for the new estate in Drumcondra have nowhere to go but down. They are mad.

Is that them http://property.breakingnews.ie/residential/brochure/3093013 ?
It will be interesting to see if they sell at that money.

gaius c

MayBea wrote: »

Is that them http://property.breakingnews.ie/residential/brochure/3093013 ?
It will be interesting to see if they sell at that money.

At least they are better located than those Grange Hill houses!

Villa05

Deleted User wrote:

Isn't this what happened when Michael McDowell floated the idea of scrapping stamp duty when he was Tainaiste? The market froze because people said "I'll wait and see what they do in the budget".

Those people were probably saved from making a big mistake, but I suspect it froze and then collapsed because prices were way too high

boogaloop

It would still seem to me that some parts of Galway city -the part I want to buy in sadly - are bucking the trend.
In the last month, quite a few 4-bed semis in the West of the city have gone sale agreed at between 10k and 20k above the asking price, and are selling fast (sale agreed 6/7 weeks after coming on to the market).
We're looking at a house at the moment which is already gone a few thousand above asking. We definitely do like the house but I really dont want to get in to a bidding war.
However if/when it does sell for probably 10-15k above asking, the next house that comes on the market will start at that higher price for asking. So it's difficult to know whether to take the pain now or wait.

On the other hand, the two recent auctions were way back on auctions in the second half of last year.

Confused!

Could it be the last of the pre-February mortgage approvals being used up?

Anyone going back to renew now is subject to the new rules. For some, that difference is considerable (for others, not so much).

If you knew/suspected you'd get 50k less under the new rules - which would mean either lower your expectations or waiting/saving for another few years - you might be inclined to throw the kitchen sink and anything suitable that comes to market.

NinjaTruncs

Has anyone heard any reports of people with pre-feb approval being forced to adhere to the new rules when they go for drawdown? There was one report earlier in the thread but other than that I haven't heard.

johnp001

NinjaTruncs wrote: »

Has anyone heard any reports of people with pre-feb approval being forced to adhere to the new rules when they go for drawdown? There was one report earlier in the thread but other than that I haven't heard.

Only anecdotally. New CB rules also force additional valuations of the property in the case that the sale drags out as the valuation must be within 2 months of the draw down date now. In a falling market if the LTV is high initially then this could be a factor.

The main difference that is being seen, since late last year in my area, is a massive increase in Sale Agreeds subsequently falling through and going back on the market.
So, to the poster who is seeing some Galway property getting sold for over asking, I would not be surprised to see a fair proportion of it back on the market in a month or two.

gaius c

Sale agreeds are falling through. We bid on one last week and it eventually went for 6% under the original sale agreed price.

However, what I'm seeing a lot more of is houses on our hotlist staying sale agreed forever and ever for months on end with no sign of them ever going sold. Some of them have been sale agreed since xmas!

GalwayBmw

NinjaTruncs wrote: »

Has anyone heard any reports of people with pre-feb approval being forced to adhere to the new rules when they go for drawdown? There was one report earlier in the thread but other than that I haven't heard.

They are getting a bit of a leeway from the banks provided they are close to contract signing stage... Don't forget a lot of banks a building their business around approved customers - life/house insurance etc. - it's a very important component of their business too.

MayBea

Residential Property Prices rise by 0.9% in March: http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexmarch2015/#.VT9aVTt4r1g

gaius c

National index: +0.9%

Dublin: +1.1%

Dublin houses: +1.0%

National houses: +1.0%

Party like it's 2005!

Barely Hedged

gaius c wrote: »

Party like it's 2005!

Jan -> -0.6%

Feb -> -0.4%

Mar -> +1%

So, netting off, 2015 is still in the red. Exactly like 2005 indeed

seamus

Yeah, Dublin is flat. Losses in February were clawed back in March. This indicates a flat trend for the year, at best.

Though Dublin apartments still steaming ahead thanks to a starved rental market. If you have an apartment, now is the time to hold onto it, sell up towards the end of the Summer. June/July I would expect a lot of investment interest as the rental market hits its peak in August/September.

gaius c

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Jan -> -0.6%

Feb -> -0.4%

Mar -> +1%

So, netting off, 2015 is still in the red. Exactly like 2005 indeed

Just jesting (obviously)

seamus wrote: »

Yeah, Dublin is flat. Losses in February were clawed back in March. This indicates a flat trend for the year, at best.

Though Dublin apartments still steaming ahead thanks to a starved rental market. If you have an apartment, now is the time to hold onto it, sell up towards the end of the Summer. June/July I would expect a lot of investment interest as the rental market hits its peak in August/September.

Risky strategy if you consider that 10% deposit mortgages will be running out in a few months time.

stevedublin

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Jan -> -0.6%

Feb -> -0.4%

Mar -> +1%

So, netting off, 2015 is still in the red. Exactly like 2005 indeed

Its more like 2014 where house prices dipped in Jan and Feb, picked up a bit in March (not as much as March 2015 though) and boomed in the summer.

seamus

gaius c wrote: »

Risky strategy if you consider that 10% deposit mortgages will be running out in a few months time.

I'd say they're mostly gone at this stage. I'm skeptical that there is anyone out there with a 10% approval who isn't sale agreed on something. My experience with BOI is that you only got in before the cut-off if you had approval on a specific property.
After that they're applying the new rules, even if you had full credit approval.

In any case, the apartment market is popular with the FTBs where a €30k deposit will get you an apartment up to €260k.
For most FTBs, buying will appear to make more sense than renting in the current market. And with rental demand so high and employment on the up, investors will be eager to buy stuff close to the city.
So I think if someone does have an apartment to sell, June/July will be a good time to get a good price.

trobbin

stevedublin wrote: »

Its more like 2014 where house prices dipped in Jan and Feb, picked up a bit in March (not as much as March 2015 though) and boomed in the summer.

Well you're correct that houses usually sell easier in the summer months, but this current market doesn't make sense to me. Apart from the government involvement in property in Ireland. The government are basically running the property market.

They own NAMA
They own AIB, EBS, AND PTSB all of whom have huge mortgage arrears on their books. They also own 14% of BOI, but that ain't involved in the same sense.

So now the government have been driving house prices up through media drivel over the past two years. And their next move is to take all the arrear debts from the books of THEIR banks and also from the defaulters and load it on the tax payer.

Complete criminals. I wouldn't touch a property in this country in such an unpredictable market, not to mention there's a lot of desperate idiots out there, who haven't a clue what they're doing, while bidding on houses with money they don't have.

gaius c

stevedublin wrote: »

Its more like 2014 where house prices dipped in Jan and Feb, picked up a bit in March (not as much as March 2015 though) and boomed in the summer.

Bit early to be calling that.

Barely Hedged

gaius c wrote: »

Just jesting (obviously)


Risky strategy if you consider that 10% deposit mortgages will be running out in a few months time.

Not a great stand up set if im being honest.

Are the deposit requirements really that much?

Mortgage Old Deposit New Deposit Diff
220 22 22 0
250 25 28 3
300 30 38 8
350 35 48 13
400 40 58 18
450 45 68 23
500 50 78 28
550 55 88 33
600 60 98 38

I think it will moderate house price growth but stop it given the economic outlook for Ireland. I think its fool hardy to think that (a thought thats been promoted by many on this forum based on Jan/Feb numbers). Somebody presented figures that showed this for the past 3/4 years in Jan/Feb, and logically for a market such as housing, it wouldnt experience growth in these months

Greyian

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Are the deposit requirements really that much?

Mortgage Old Deposit New Deposit Diff
220 22 22 0
250 25 28 3
300 30 38 8
350 35 48 13
400 40 58 18
450 45 68 23
500 50 78 28
550 55 88 33
600 60 98 38

Those figures are only for first time buyers, not for trader-uppers. Quite a substantial difference if you cover non first-time buyers.

Also, weren't the deposit requirements previously 8% in most banks?

NinjaTruncs

I was speaking to an estate agent a few months ago and she didn't think the deposit rules would have as much of an impact as the LTI. For a 500K house you'll need a deposit of either 78K or 100K and combined salary of 120K/114K respectively, she seemed to think a lot of people will be limited in the amount of a mortgage they can get based on their salary more so than their deposit. But I guess only time will tell what impact either have.

Barely Hedged

Greyian wrote: »

Those figures are only for first time buyers, not for trader-uppers. Quite a substantial difference if you cover non first-time buyers.

Also, weren't the deposit requirements previously 8% in most banks?

Also, 50% of FTB's buy < 220k.

They were 8% in UK banks but i cant recall Irish banks being the same. 10% is/was the norm.

You'd generally by trading up with equity in your house, so that should negate the impact of an increase deposit requirement

trobbin

NinjaTruncs wrote: »

I was speaking to an estate agent a few months ago and she didn't think the deposit rules would have as much of an impact as the LTI. For a 500K house you'll need a deposit of either 78K or 100K and combined salary of 120K/114K respectively, she seemed to think a lot of people will be limited in the amount of a mortgage they can get based on their salary more so than their deposit. But I guess only time will tell what impact either have.

If you can trust anyone, it's an estate agent. They're full of useful and helpful information.

Barely Hedged

NinjaTruncs wrote: »

I was speaking to an estate agent a few months ago and she didn't think the deposit rules would have as much of an impact as the LTI. For a 500K house you'll need a deposit of either 78K or 100K and combined salary of 120K/114K respectively, she seemed to think a lot of people will be limited in the amount of a mortgage they can get based on their salary more so than their deposit. But I guess only time will tell what impact either have.

If you were passing the deposit requirements by the skin of your teeth (i.e. 10%) there was no Irish bank or mortgage broker that wouldnt laugh at you if you were looking for a LTI of 5. They simply would not entertain it.

Now if you had > 30% of the deposit youd be more likely to get the LTI of 5, which you still can get in 15% of the cases under the new rules. I think most people with a 30% deposit wont really be hit by the new rules.

Do i think its impact is overstated - yes.

Will it moderate house price growth - yes. I reckon 5% - 7% in Dublin this year.

Will it stop house price growth - a big fat no.

helimachoptor

helimachoptor wrote: »

Cheers for the re-open mods.

Just an update.. basically no update, haven't heard back from the EA.

Update this morning, bid of 525K has gone in.

We are out at this stage and onto look hard at other properties

NinjaTruncs

Hey don't shoot the messenger... I'm simply repeating the opinion I was given by one.

However if there is one thing I am starting to learn about estate agents it's that most of them haven't a clue what they are doing.

just for clarity, do you think house prices in dublin will go up or down by 5%-7%

trobbin

NinjaTruncs wrote: »

Hey don't shoot the messenger... I'm simply repeating the opinion I was given by one.

However if there is one thing I am starting to learn about estate agents it's that most of them haven't a clue what they are doing.

just for clarity, do you think house prices in dublin will go up or down by 5%-7%

I think they will stutter along while the sheep follow what the media tells them to do. Apparently there's a property shortage in Dublin:) and some people really believe that.

I'm honestly not sure on figures for this year, that's why I wouldn't go near property. I do know American investors kick started the apartment boom in sales, but it's not based on value, they're simply backing against a strong dollar.

My opinion on property in Ireland is very grim in future years. Once the government get out of the housing market, and they sell the banks. After all their austerity measures have been implemented, that's when it will get bad. As interest rates will begin to rise, media will say it's to slow inflation, but it will cripple mortgage holders.

I'm thinking longer term than this year.

Barely Hedged

NinjaTruncs wrote: »

Hey don't shoot the messenger... I'm simply repeating the opinion I was given by one.

However if there is one thing I am starting to learn about estate agents it's that most of them haven't a clue what they are doing.

just for clarity, do you think house prices in dublin will go up or down by 5%-7%

+5% to +7%

Barely Hedged

helimachoptor wrote: »

Update this morning, bid of 525K has gone in.

We are out at this stage and onto look hard at other properties

Best of luck with the search.