Property Market 2015

El_Dangeroso

Well guys, I'm out of the property price speculation game. Went sale agreed this morning.

Now to become a massive bull!! Just joking! I still think things will flatten/become slightly negative by the end of the year at the higher end. But as for me, I bought within my means in a property I'm happy to stay for at least a decade and I was sooo tired of looking and renting.

Best of luck to everyone else on the hunt!

Barely Hedged

El_Dangeroso wrote: »

Well guys, I'm out of the property price speculation game. Went sale agreed this morning.

Now to become a massive bull!! Just joking! I still think things will flatten/become slightly negative by the end of the year at the higher end. But as for me, I bought within my means in a property I'm happy to stay for at least a decade and I was sooo tired of looking and renting.

Best of luck to everyone else on the hunt!

Hate to say it - sale agreed is meaningless. You should still keep looking

El_Dangeroso

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Hate to say it - sale agreed is meaningless. You should still keep looking

How so, risk of gazzumping you mean?

Barely Hedged

El_Dangeroso wrote: »

How so, risk of gazzumping you mean?

Roughly speaking 50% of sale agreeds fall through.

Ive bought three before and been shafted on 8

seamus

El_Dangerouso, keep looking at least until the valuer & surveyor have been in, and you have your mortgage offer from the bank.

At that stage once you're happy things seem to be lining up, you should be OK (though get that contract signed ASAP).

We went sale agreed and pulled out again, and only stopped looking for a week but it was crazy how out of the loop (and back to square one) we felt after just that week.

If you continue to keep your options open, you'll be less inclined to fight tooth and nail to hold onto a property just because you've gone sale agreed on it.

handlemaster

Were on the up again !! Six months in Will give better un der standing of the market

El_Dangeroso

El_Dangeroso wrote: »

Well guys, I'm out of the property price speculation game. Went sale agreed this morning.

Now to become a massive bull!! Just joking! I still think things will flatten/become slightly negative by the end of the year at the higher end. But as for me, I bought within my means in a property I'm happy to stay for at least a decade and I was sooo tired of looking and renting.

Best of luck to everyone else on the hunt!

Congrats El D,
Hope it all runs smoothly from here. I'm sure plenty of the sales that fall through are people who have won bidding wars with money they don't really have. If you're happy that you've bought within your means it should be grand.

I'm envious. What are you going to do with all your free time?

Barely Hedged

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Not a great stand up set if im being honest.

Are the deposit requirements really that much?

Mortgage Old Deposit New Deposit Diff
220 22 22 0
250 25 28 3
300 30 38 8
350 35 48 13
400 40 58 18
450 45 68 23
500 50 78 28
550 55 88 33
600 60 98 38

I think it will moderate house price growth but stop it given the economic outlook for Ireland. I think its fool hardy to think that (a thought thats been promoted by many on this forum based on Jan/Feb numbers). Somebody presented figures that showed this for the past 3/4 years in Jan/Feb, and logically for a market such as housing, it wouldnt experience growth in these months

Very important figures, IMHO (to borrow an acronym). I think if you're looking at properties for 250 the CB rules will make no odds. The major factor there will be the wind at back of the wider economy.

Houses twice the price are affected much more severely. Plus, in that kind of bracket there are fewer FTBs meaning more of the people in the market are affected by the 20% rule for the full amount.

We could have flat or rising average house prices this year but it will probably be double-digit growth in the sub 300k market and flat to negative in the 500k end.

(I made that prediction with absolutely no confidence whatsoever and safe in the knowledge that we'll probably never know for sure )

Barely Hedged

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm sure plenty of the sales that fall through are people who have won bidding wars with money they don't really have. If you're happy that you've bought within your means it should be grand.

Thats the minority of the reasons.

Chains
Gazumping
Executor sales complicated by multiple executors of the will
Negative equity - non permission from bank to sell

Ah BH, I'm just trying to be nice. You're wrecking El Dangeroso's buzz!

Genuinely, what proportion of sale agreeds fall through? Is it really half? I see a fair few houses coming back to market in the areas I track but I'd guess it's closer to a quarter.

Barely Hedged

Deleted User wrote: »

Very important figures, IMHO (to borrow an acronym). I think if you're looking at properties for 250 the CB rules will make no odds. The major factor there will be the wind at back of the wider economy.

Houses twice the price are affected much more severely. Plus, in that kind of bracket there are fewer FTBs meaning more of the people in the market are affected by the 20% rule for the full amount.

We could have flat or rising average house prices this year but it will probably be double-digit growth in the sub 300k market and flat to negative in the 500k end.

(I made that prediction with absolutely no confidence whatsoever and safe in the knowledge that we'll probably never know for sure )

I agree with the disjoint behaviour that you point out between the two price ranges but people trading up will be doing so with equity being released so it will offset the deposit rules

Barely Hedged

Deleted User wrote: »

Ah BH, I'm just trying to be nice. You're wrecking El Dangeroso's buzz!

Genuinely, what proportion of sale agreeds fall through? Is it really half? I see a fair few houses coming back to market in the areas I track but I'd guess it's closer to a quarter.

Im just warning him to be proactive as its the common sense approach.

Keep the champagne on ice until contracts are signed, as only then is there legal obligations in place

Bob24

Deleted User wrote: »

Ah BH, I'm just trying to be nice. You're wrecking El Dangeroso's buzz!

Genuinely, what proportion of sale agreeds fall through? Is it really half? I see a fair few houses coming back to market in the areas I track but I'd guess it's closer to a quarter.

For what I am looking at, I would say more than half get marked as sale agreed and then are listed again a few weeks later.

But I am assuming the issues are mostly with buyers failing to get their mortgages or realising they offered more than they wanted to spend?

johnp001

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Roughly speaking 50% of sale agreeds fall through.

Ive bought three before and been shafted on 8

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Thats the minority of the reasons.

Chains
Gazumping
Executor sales complicated by multiple executors of the will
Negative equity - non permission from bank to sell

Unfortunately for the buyer that's probably very good advice.
I have been seeing a lot more sale agreed's falling through in my local area and hearing about a lot more anecdotally too and have been wondering what the exact proportion that do fall through is.
Is the 50% figure above based on your own three buys or from a broader perspective?

50% sounds like a lot but you're probably right. I'm only thinking of the number that I see coming back to market in my area.

No doubt there are houses that go sale agreed only for the deal to fall through and, rather than re-list the property, the seller negotiates with the under-bidders.

I've also bid on houses that go sale agreed (with another bidder) but never appear on the register. In one case the agent later told me that the bank had been putting pressure on to sell but that the vendor/owner was just going through the motions but had no intention voluntarily selling up and moving out.

johnp001

Deleted User wrote: »

50% sounds like a lot but you're probably right. I'm only thinking of the number that I see coming back to market in my area.

No doubt there are houses that go sale agreed only for the deal to fall through and, rather than re-list the property, the seller negotiates with the under-bidders.

I've also bid on houses that go sale agreed (with another bidder) but never appear on the register. In one case the agent later told me that the bank had been putting pressure on to sell but that the vendor/owner was just going through the motions but had no intention voluntarily selling up and moving out.

I agree, it does sound like a lot but the ones that you see that are marked "Sale Agreed" and then later re-listed is just the tip of the iceberg due to the situations you describe above and others. 50% could even be an underestimate :eek:

Barely Hedged

johnp001 wrote: »

Unfortunately for the buyer that's probably very good advice.
I have been seeing a lot more sale agreed's falling through in my local area and hearing about a lot more anecdotally too and have been wondering what the exact proportion that do fall through is.
Is the 50% figure above based on your own three buys or from a broader perspective?

Personal experience, the experience of the five mortgage advisors i talked to and getting to know estate agents through the pursuit of several properties

boogaloop

If you go sale agreed on a house, and later (for whatever reason) have to pull out of the deal, what are the financial penalties, is it the booking deposit or more?

Bob24

boogaloop wrote: »

If you go sale agreed on a house, and later (for whatever reason) have to pull out of the deal, what are the financial penalties, is it the booking deposit or more?

As far as I know there are no penalties (neither for the buyer or the seller) and the deposit is fully refundable.

Welcome to the wild west :-)

boogaloop

Wow - ok, thanks Bob24. No wonder so many come back on market so, if there's no penalty there's no deterrent. In theory, you could (if you had the booking deposits) go sale agreed on a few houses & then give yourself more time to decide which one you want.
Interesting way to do business.........

stevedublin

The booking deposit may not always get returned immediately, limiting a buyers ability to put the booking deposit on the next property immediately (unless the buyer has enough cash to pay many booking deposits).

Bob24

boogaloop wrote: »

In theory, you could (if you had the booking deposits) go sale agreed on a few houses & then give yourself more time to decide which one you want.
Interesting way to do business.........

And I think this is what some people are doing (or offering money they don't have and for which they don't have a mortgage approval - they pulling out when the realise no bank won't finance them). Crazy but that's how it seems to work.

Also some sellers are acting a bit dodgy with this. Friends of mine were sale agreed on a property (and had paid the deposit), but the seller/EA kept giving excuses to delay the actual sale. It lasted for 2 or 3 months before they had enough and asked for their deposit back.

johnp001

seamus wrote: »

I'd say they're mostly gone at this stage. I'm skeptical that there is anyone out there with a 10% approval who isn't sale agreed on something. My experience with BOI is that you only got in before the cut-off if you had approval on a specific property.
After that they're applying the new rules, even if you had full credit approval.

In any case, the apartment market is popular with the FTBs where a €30k deposit will get you an apartment up to €260k.
For most FTBs, buying will appear to make more sense than renting in the current market. And with rental demand so high and employment on the up, investors will be eager to buy stuff close to the city.
So I think if someone does have an apartment to sell, June/July will be a good time to get a good price.

Does this mean:
1. put it on the market in June/July?
2. go sale agreed in June/July? (i.e. be on the market already)
3. close the sale in June/July? (i.e. be Sale Agreed already)

N.B. Daft report states

"The fraction of Dublin listings selling within four months has eased back From 71% a year ago to 65% today"

mel123

For the areas I am looking for (Dublin Northside), there seems to be very little under/in around 200k in terms of houses, only apartments.
It may be the wrong term, but what I would call starter homes (maybe a 2 bed under 200k, in a desirable area).
Anyone any opinions why this is? There may not even be any reason for this, but ive been looking for quite a while now and nothing really pops up

superman28

I have been looking for a property for the last 4 months and have noticed a fair few places I have bid on coming back onto the market after gone sale agreed. Also, I feel in my experience the frenzy panic buying of last year is gone out of the market mostly.

I also recently in the last 2 weeks experienced every property with offers in way below the asking price,, instead of the usual "there is an offer in at the asking price" which seemed common before..

Mel123 I would buy a decent appartment (if you can find one) for that kind of money, I would go for an appartment in a better location, than a small run down house in a bad part of town. Just my two cents.

mel123

superman28 wrote: »

I have been looking for a property for the last 4 months and have noticed a fair few places I have bid on coming back onto the market after gone sale agreed. Also, I feel in my experience the frenzy panic buying of last year is gone out of the market mostly.

I also recently in the last 2 weeks experienced every property with offers in way below the asking price,, instead of the usual "there is an offer in at the asking price" which seemed common before..

Mel123 I would buy a decent appartment (if you can find one) for that kind of money, I would go for an appartment in a better location, than a small run down house in a bad part of town. Just my two cents.

Thanks for the input. Even though I am looking for what I call a starter home, ive actually been on the property ladder before, I just have been renting for the past few years. Ive had an apartment before, and it just wouldn't be for me again. Im buying a property now that if everything goes belly up, at least I will be happy to stay in for years to come, and I would not be happy to stay in an apartment.
Ive had the opposite experience, although I can see a lot of homes going back on the market too, I find any that I do find are going sale agreed above the asking price and being snapped up. Maybe its just the budget I have but I have been looking also at ones over my budget and making enquires, just for the hell of it, and they are all getting at least the asking price (apparently).

gaius c

johnp001 wrote: »

Is the 50% figure above based on your own three buys or from a broader perspective?

It's anecdotal but most industry sources will privately admit a figure anywhere between 33-50%.

Mongfinder General

mel123 wrote: »

Thanks for the input. Even though I am looking for what I call a starter home, ive actually been on the property ladder before, I just have been renting for the past few years. Ive had an apartment before, and it just wouldn't be for me again. Im buying a property now that if everything goes belly up, at least I will be happy to stay in for years to come, and I would not be happy to stay in an apartment.
Ive had the opposite experience, although I can see a lot of homes going back on the market too, I find any that I do find are going sale agreed above the asking price and being snapped up. Maybe its just the budget I have but I have been looking also at ones over my budget and making enquires, just for the hell of it, and they are all getting at least the asking price (apparently).

You're right about apartment living. However, for 200k you are looking at living in a house in an area like Finglas South, Darndale, Balbriggan or similar kipp

CarpeDiem85

mel123 wrote: »

For the areas I am looking for (Dublin Northside), there seems to be very little under/in around 200k in terms of houses, only apartments.
It may be the wrong term, but what I would call starter homes (maybe a 2 bed under 200k, in a desirable area).
Anyone any opinions why this is? There may not even be any reason for this, but ive been looking for quite a while now and nothing really pops up

I will be looking at similar in a few years time but on the south side. I just happened to type the above criteria (2 bed, €200,000) into daft one day and I definitely saw houses for around the €200,000 mark in Cabra. The ex corporation ones. Maybe you should put your budget in the search as €220,000 as then you'll see houses that might be in around €205,000-210. I think people are quickly catching on to these houses as an alternative to apartment living as they're good sturdy houses and have good proximity to the city c.

cherryghost

Can someone give me a lowdown on why house prices in Balbriggan are low? Scanning over the net the area itself seems fine and has a few transport links to the cc...