Property Market 2015

tharmor

Thanks for the inputs....i am a first time buyer and just wondering what all areas near dublin can i look to buy a house in range of 200-250k ?

Mr.McLovin

tharmor wrote: »

Thanks for the inputs....i am a first time buyer and just wondering what all areas near dublin can i look to buy a house in range of 200-250k ?

Depends, how many rooms, apartment or house ect

Rew

tharmor wrote: »

Thanks for the inputs....i am a first time buyer and just wondering what all areas near dublin can i look to buy a house in range of 200-250k ?

Go to myhome.ie filter by your criteria and look at it in the map view that will give a good idea.

gaius c

slowjoe17 wrote: »

Who has a 40-50 year working life to pay off a mortgage?

"until the mess gets cleaned up"?

What happens if a family spends 10 years struggling, then they lose a job (if you have a 10% chance of a single job loss, you have 19% chance of the loss of one of two jobs)? Or interest rates rise? Or the market drops again?

The road to hell is paved with good intentions.

He didn't say it but I assumed he was talking about multi-generational mortgages.

Wouldn't that be a nice thing to bequeath to your children???

Bob24

gaius c wrote: »

He didn't say it but I assumed he was talking about multi-generational mortgages.

Wouldn't that be a nice thing to bequeath to your children???

We are already passing debt to the next generations as a country, why not doing it as individuals? ;-)
Or would it be irresponsible?

Being serious, I think it would be crazy but don't they have inter-generational mortgages in Switzerland?

The_Conductor

gaius c wrote: »

He didn't say it but I assumed he was talking about multi-generational mortgages.

Wouldn't that be a nice thing to bequeath to your children???

If the plan is to up the old age pension retirement age to 70, as stated, then it is perfectly plausible (though not a nice prospect)........

keane2097

Has there been anything to indicate the taxpayer funding people who overborrowed to stay in their houses is likely to go ahead since the initial kite-flying articles?

Greyian

I was taking a look at the Property Price Register Ireland website and came across some figures that people here might find interesting.

For the first 4 months of the year, sales look as follows:

Dublin
Year|Value of Sales|Unit Sales|Price per Unit
2014|€984,962,488.38|2863|€344,031.61
2015|€1,429,729,212.68|4168|€343,025.24


Nationwide
Year|Value of Sales|Unit Sales|Price per Unit
2014|€1,858,297,798.51|9189|€202,230.69
2015|€2,786,812,047.80|12878|€216,401.00


So, nationwide, average sale price in January to April 2015 is up 7% on January to April 2014.
In Dublin, the average sale price in January to April 2015 is down 0.3% on January to April 2014.

slowjoe17

keane2097 wrote: »

Has there been anything to indicate the taxpayer funding people who overborrowed to stay in their houses is likely to go ahead since the initial kite-flying articles?

This is Ireland.

Happily, most politicians in Ireland only want to sell their grannies around election time. Unfortunately, we're ten months and change away from the next election.

A lot of grannies (and taxpayers) can be sold in that time.

gaius c

Time for an update.

National prices by month



National prices by quarter

gaius c

Transactions by month



Transactions by quarter



Transactions by year

gaius c

National trend by quarter



Dublin trend by quarter



GDA trend by quarter



Cork trend by quarter



Galway trend by quarter



Limerick trend by quarter

El_Dangeroso

Poor Limerick, never gets a look in at recovery.

gaius c

El_Dangeroso wrote: »

Poor Limerick, never gets a look in at recovery.

House prices up = recovery ???
Interesting perspective.

stevedublin

gaius c wrote: »

House prices up = recovery ???
Interesting perspective.

Higher house prices are reflective of more money in the economy and so are usually indicative of economic growth - like it or not!

Michael D Not Higgins

stevedublin wrote: »

Higher house prices are reflective of more money in the economy and so are usually indicative of economic growth - like it or not!

Or it's indicative of falling supply. Guess which way the supply is going?

stevedublin

Michael D Not Higgins wrote: »

Or it's indicative of falling supply. Guess which way the supply is going?

supply seems to be going up.

Michael D Not Higgins

stevedublin wrote: »

supply seems to be going up.

Guess again. The stock on the market has been falling since 2009/10.

Greyian

Michael D Not Higgins wrote: »

Guess again. The stock on the market has been falling since 2009/10.

There's more stock now (in Dublin anyway) than at the same point last year.

El_Dangeroso

gaius c wrote: »

House prices up = recovery ???
Interesting perspective.

Ha! Not to say recovery has to equal house price rises but more what Steve Dublin said.

I'm from Limerick originally so it's sad to see that it's not really recovering as well as other cities since the crash.

Though what I wouldn't give to buy a house in Galway for the same price as I'd get in Limerick. I'd be relaxing in my mansion right now :cool:

Michael D Not Higgins

Greyian wrote: »

There's more stock now (in Dublin anyway) than at the same point last year.

What with the new mortgage rules and capital gains tax exemption I'd expect 2014 to be an anomaly. On the whole, the stock is decreasing.

Also, the increase in prices nationally is driven by the stock outside of Dublin according to Daft's analysis, which is a consequence of the lack of stock.

Edit: not to mention the ever decreasing number of rental properties which are going up in price and increasing the market demand for buying a house.

gaius c

Michael D Not Higgins wrote: »

What with the new mortgage rules and capital gains tax exemption I'd expect 2014 to be an anomaly. On the whole, the stock is decreasing.

Also, the increase in prices nationally is driven by the stock outside of Dublin according to Daft's analysis, which is a consequence of the lack of stock.

Edit: not to mention the ever decreasing number of rental properties which are going up in price and increasing the market demand for buying a house.

You're wrong.
Stock in Dublin is about 60% higher on myhome than it was this time last year and has been steadily increasing since it's low point just over 12 months ago.

It's an absolute nonsense argument to say the lower stock last year should be ignored. Why? Because it doesn't suit your demonstrably false premise?

gaius c

Michael D Not Higgins wrote: »

Guess again. The stock on the market has been falling since 2009/10.

Until last spring when it started trending back up again.

johnp001

Michael D Not Higgins wrote: »

What with the new mortgage rules and capital gains tax exemption I'd expect 2014 to be an anomaly. On the whole, the stock is decreasing.

Also, the increase in prices nationally is driven by the stock outside of Dublin according to Daft's analysis, which is a consequence of the lack of stock.

Edit: not to mention the ever decreasing number of rental properties which are going up in price and increasing the market demand for buying a house.

I agree with gauis_c above that this is wrong.
Overbuilding in unsuitable areas and subsequent ghost estates are one of the consequences of the previous housing bubble. Some rural counties have 10 times the amount of supply (relative to demand) than is available in Dublin. In many rural areas houses regularly sell for significantly less than their build cost.
Supply is not a driver of price increases outside Dublin and the commuter belt. It is unlikely that a large number of building projects like housing estates will be undertaken outside of the GDA until at least some of this rural oversupply is absorbed/ghost estates are demolished.
In the last 6 months dozens of unoccupied houses were sold in Co. Westmeath for literally cents on the dollar relative to their original asking prices. Towns that were part of the previous governments "Town Renewal Scheme" plan (e.g. Loughrea) are still having problems with large amounts of partially built and finished but unoccupied housing.
Stock on the market nationally is not a good metric for judging anything as it does not allow for the differences between areas like SCD where stock is in very short supply and increases in stock are likely to directly affect prices and areas like Longford or Roscommon where housing is vastly oversupplied and neither an increase or decrease in supply is likely to have any effect on prices.

handlemaster

http://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/relief-at-last-for-homeowners-as-banks-to-slash-mortgage-rates-31243358.html


This move by the banks on rates may free up some stock

The_Conductor

handlemaster wrote: »

http://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/relief-at-last-for-homeowners-as-banks-to-slash-mortgage-rates-31243358.html


This move by the banks on rates may free up some stock

Just curious- how do you see a lowering of variable rates as likely to free-up stock? It will have zero impact on repossessions- and the new central bank rules apply anyway- it may make payments a little more affordable- but it won't change people's borrowing capacity- and I don't see how it'll have any impact on sellers or potential sellers- deciding to put property on the market.

Its a welcome development for mortgage holders- however, its pretty much neutral for everyone else- aside from the taxpayer- who is going to have to pay for this (aka AIB and the other lenders are still majority state owned (with the exception of BOI)). The stated policy is to sell these institutions- however, a lowering of rates- makes them a lot less profitable and thus a less valuable when they're put on the market.

Ideally the rates would have been left alone until the government had shifted them- and then pressure brought to bear to lower them. Unfortunately the order in which this happened was arseways.

jay0109

The_Conductor wrote: »

Ideally the rates would have been left alone until the government had shifted them- and then pressure brought to bear to lower them. Unfortunately the order in which this happened was arseways.

Unfortunately, we're a democracy and there's an election coming round the bend!

Michael D Not Higgins

gaius c wrote: »

You're wrong.
Stock in Dublin is about 60% higher on myhome than it was this time last year and has been steadily increasing since it's low point just over 12 months ago.

It's an absolute nonsense argument to say the lower stock last year should be ignored. Why? Because it doesn't suit your demonstrably false premise?

I'm not ignoring lower stock last year. In fact, what I was saying is that the increase in stock was to take advantage of the market where the ensuing lending rules and loss of capital gains tax exemption would decrease demand and discourage higher prices.

My point was that higher house prices aren't necessarily a measure of a recovering economy, constricted supply and market conditions can increase the house prices even in a stagnant economy.

slowjoe17

gaius c wrote: »

Transactions by month

<snipped because I cannot post links.

Interesting. Do you know when the cut-off date for May 15 data was?

gaius c

slowjoe17 wrote: »

Interesting. Do you know when the cut-off date for May 15 data was?

May 15th is the last data included and there's only 15 entries for that date. This will rise in the next edition and will continue to rise for some time after that.