Property Market 2015

The_Conductor

https://onlineauction.allsopireland.ie/search/index?dm_i=1V46,3EXS9,BMQMER,C7UVV,1

Summary-

64 properties on offer
49 properties sold, 15 unsold
Gross €6.31m
One lot (an apartment block in Doughiska, Co. Galway) attracted a startling 169 bids- and the auction on it took almost 3 hours.

With over 20% of lots failing to make their reserves- which in the main were low enough- I'm not entirely sure that I'd call this the most successful of auctions- though many properties did achieve vastly in excess of their AMRs.

It looks like the froth is definitely gone from the market.......

Bob24

On interest rates reduction: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2015/05/25/dont-be-fooled-all-the-banks-win-yet-again?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=dont-be-fooled-all-the-banks-win-yet-again

I think he has a good point. And I am starting to wonder whether the combination of improving economy and banks being very keen to start lending more (i.e. offering better rates) could put the good people of Ireland in full property bubble mode again.

Thargor

The_Conductor wrote: »

https://onlineauction.allsopireland.ie/search/index?dm_i=1V46,3EXS9,BMQMER,C7UVV,1

Summary-

64 properties on offer
49 properties sold, 15 unsold
Gross €6.31m
One lot (an apartment block in Doughiska, Co. Galway) attracted a startling 169 bids- and the auction on it took almost 3 hours.

With over 20% of lots failing to make their reserves- which in the main were low enough- I'm not entirely sure that I'd call this the most successful of auctions- though many properties did achieve vastly in excess of their AMRs.

It looks like the froth is definitely gone from the market.......

Anyone got any details on that apartment block in Galway?

OfflerCrocGod

Bob24 wrote: »

On interest rates reduction: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2015/05/25/dont-be-fooled-all-the-banks-win-yet-again?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=dont-be-fooled-all-the-banks-win-yet-again

I think he has a good point. And I am starting to wonder whether the combination of improving economy and banks being very keen to start lending more (i.e. offering better rates) could put the good people of Ireland in full property bubble mode again.

Property bubble, with the new CB rules? If we get strong property price increases then it won't be the average Joe that will be taking on the risk. It would have to be equity rich investors. Their punishment will be weak returns, hardly a patch on the crash we have emerged from.

The_Conductor

Thargor wrote: »

Anyone got any details on that apartment block in Galway?

6 * 2 bed apartments, 60sq m (650 sq feet) each
Reserve 350k
Sale price 561k

Numbers 19,20,21,22,23,24

Vacant Possession of Nos. 19, 20, 21 and 23
No. 22 is subject to a current rent of €8,400 per annum
No. 24 is subject to a current rent of €7,800 per annum

Thargor

Thanks, where is it though?

Bob24

OfflerCrocGod wrote: »

Property bubble, with the new CB rules? If we get strong property price increases then it won't be the average Joe that will be taking on the risk. It would have to be equity rich investors. Their punishment will be weak returns, hardly a patch on the crash we have emerged from.

Lets say how things turn-out, but when there is a will there is a way.

The government has already ignored the CBI's opinion when it made a move to set lower interest rates. Would anyone be that surprised if they came up with a scheme to help people gather larger deposits through alternate lending methods in order to work around the rules?

The_Conductor

Thargor wrote: »

Thanks, where is it though?

From the brochure:

Doughiska is an area to the east of Galway City.
The property is situated in the Durabhan estate, which is accessed of the Doughiska Road via the Dublin Road.
Local amenities include Merlin Park Regional Hospital, Galway Mayo Institute of Technology, Galway Business Park Oranmore, together with a range of schools, shops, bars and restaurants.
Further amenities are available in Galway City Centre, approximately 7km to the west.
Oranmore Train Station is situated approximately 3.2km to the east.

Seems a bit further out than I had imagined- but rental income seems fairly strong.

Thargor

Sorry should have been clear, Im asking what the actual building is, used to live near there.

The_Conductor

Thargor wrote: »

Sorry should have been clear, Im asking what the actual building is, used to live near there.

Do these help?

farrerg

Some interesting price drops, new builds in sally grove, ballycullen and grange hill, rathfarnham. I am also looking at another development in Kildare where the last few houses are very slow to move and the stables in bray where it doesn't appear any sold at the launch.

Looks like developers are being forced to temper their expectations a bit, and that buyers are being a bit more cautious

gaius c

farrerg wrote: »

Some interesting price drops, new builds in sally grove, ballycullen and grange hill, rathfarnham. I am also looking at another development in Kildare where the last few houses are very slow to move and the stables in bray where it doesn't appear any sold at the launch.

Looks like developers are being forced to temper their expectations a bit, and that buyers are being a bit more cautious

Sallygrove is a bit of a mess indeed. A quick drive around the area will explain the reason why they will be hard to sell. Plus the fact that the 3 beds are fairly small and that the ugly red brick frontage just screams "CHEAP".



http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/new-3-4-bed-homes-sallygrove-ballycullen-tallaght-dublin-24/3180581

MayBea

In the month of April residential property prices rose by 0.6% nationwide.
In Dublin residential property prices rose by 1.0% in April.

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexapril2015/#.VWWYSmTBzGd

Bob24

MayBea wrote: »

In the month of April residential property prices rose by 0.6% nationwide.
In Dublin residential property prices rose by 1.0% in April.

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexapril2015/#.VWWYSmTBzGd

Looking at Dublin, apartments have stopped rising whereas they were responsible for most of the increases of the past few months, and house have been rising 2 months in a row.

One thing is not clear to me though. It says:
- Overall change in Dublin is 1%
- Houses are increasing 1%
- Apartments are stable at 0%

How is this possible unless no apartments were sold? (which I guess is not an option)

Thargor

Eh? Couldn't they have just sold at last months prices? A thousand apartments sold at last months prices = 0% increase in price.

dubrov

Bob24 wrote: »

Looking at Dublin, apartments have stopped rising whereas they were responsible for most of the increases of the past few months, and house have been rising 2 months in a row.

One thing is not clear to me though. It says:
- Overall change in Dublin is 1%
- Houses are increasing 1%
- Apartments are stable at 0%

How is this possible unless no apartments were sold? (which I guess is not an option)

A lot of the data doesn't add up alright.

Another example is the 12 month change for Jan 2015.
Dublin Apts +22.3%
Dublin Houses + 21.7%
Dublin All +21.6%

Is it possible that the "All" includes properties that are not classed as apartments or houses?

Greyian

Thargor wrote: »

Eh? Couldn't they have just sold at last months prices? A thousand apartments sold at last months prices = 0% increase in price.

I think he's referring to the fact that overall growth=1%, house price growth=1%, apartment growth=0%.

The only way for that to be possible would be no (or very, very close to no) apartments sold. If we had 9 houses sold, and 1 apartment, the overall growth would be (9*1%+1*0%)/10, which would give 0.9% overall growth.

The_Conductor

dubrov wrote: »

A lot of the data doesn't add up alright.

Another example is the 12 month change for Jan 2015.
Dublin Apts +22.3%
Dublin Houses + 21.7%
Dublin All +21.6%

Is it possible that the "All" includes properties that are not classed as apartments or houses?

It has to- its the only way 'all' could be a lower percentage than either Apts or Houses.

I'd imagine that it is apartments and houses- that just weren't categorised (at all) and as a group- grew at a lower percentage than those that were categorised.

gaius c

MayBea wrote: »

In the month of April residential property prices rose by 0.6% nationwide.
In Dublin residential property prices rose by 1.0% in April.

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexapril2015/#.VWWYSmTBzGd

Still below where it was in December though. Not a great look for peak selling season.

Bob24

Greyian wrote: »

I think he's referring to the fact that overall growth=1%, house price growth=1%, apartment growth=0%.

The only way for that to be possible would be no (or very, very close to no) apartments sold. If we had 9 houses sold, and 1 apartment, the overall growth would be (9*1%+1*0%)/10, which would give 0.9% overall growth.

Yep that's what I meant.

Barely Hedged

gaius c wrote: »

Still below where it was in December though. Not a great look for peak selling season.

Growth from Dec 13 -> Apr 14 was just over 1.5% in all Dublin residential.

Decline from Dec 14 -> Apr 15 was just under -0.5% in all Dublin residential.

May 14 -> 4.2%
Jun 14 -> 3.3%
Jul 14 -> 2.7%
Aug 14 -> 3.5%
Sept 14 ->2.5%

The numbers since December tell us nothing about the changes that will occur in the summer months

gaius c

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Growth from Dec 13 -> Apr 14 was just over 1.5% in all Dublin residential.

Decline from Dec 14 -> Apr 15 was just under -0.5% in all Dublin residential.

May 14 -> 4.2%
Jun 14 -> 3.3%
Jul 14 -> 2.7%
Aug 14 -> 3.5%
Sept 14 ->2.5%

The numbers since December tell us nothing about the changes that will occur in the summer months

Also
The numbers last summer tell us nothing about the changes that will occur in this summer.

crisco10

gaius c wrote: »

Also
The numbers last summer tell us nothing about the changes that will occur in this summer.

Housing statistics seem to more and more grey the more you look at them..!

What I don't get is that people are saying that a small increase in values now doesn't show much for the selling season etc. But surely the prices from the Spring selling season don't manifest until May/June/July as they all complete the Sale Agreed process and go on the PPPR?

Barely Hedged

gaius c wrote: »

Also
The numbers last summer tell us nothing about the changes that will occur in this summer.

Thats true, but it doesnt make sense to deduce anything from the quietest time in the housing market - as you pointed out earlier:

gaius c wrote: »

Still below where it was in December though. Not a great look for peak selling season.

gaius c

crisco10 wrote: »

Housing statistics seem to more and more grey the more you look at them..!

What I don't get is that people are saying that a small increase in values now doesn't show much for the selling season etc. But surely the prices from the Spring selling season don't manifest until May/June/July as they all complete the Sale Agreed process and go on the PPPR?

The stats above are for CSO which have a "lag" but not as long as the PPR stats.

BH
It was blind panic in the Dublin market last spring and this was reflected in the huge spike in transaction values recorded later in the PPR. That panic is long gone now and it has been replaced with myhome email alerts (new listings and price changes) that are so long that you need to open the email in a separate window to view the items cut off in the bottom of the email.

We won't know for sure but early indications are that those figures you listed are unlikely to be replicated.

P.S. Spring is peak selling season in the housing market, notwithstanding recent trends seeing the bulk of transactions happening before the end of calendar years to avail of various tax breaks, etc.

Barely Hedged

gaius c wrote: »

The stats above are for CSO which have a "lag" but not as long as the PPR stats.

BH
It was blind panic in the Dublin market last spring and this was reflected in the huge spike in transaction values recorded later in the PPR. That panic is long gone now and it has been replaced with myhome email alerts (new listings and price changes) that are so long that you need to open the email in a separate window to view the items cut off in the bottom of the email.

We won't know for sure but early indications are that those figures you listed are unlikely to be replicated.

Im not saying they will be replicated, although i do expect a +5% to +7% increase in Dublin house prices for 2015.

Im saying its pointless extrapolating from Dec - Apr figures for the summer months.

Even though there is an increase in supply, there is more than enough demand to soak it up pushing the summer months into the positive territory

gaius c

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Im not saying they will be replicated, although i do expect a +5% to +7% increase in Dublin house prices for 2015.

Im saying its pointless extrapolating from Dec - Apr figures for the summer months.

Even though there is an increase in supply, there is more than enough demand to soak it up pushing the summer months into the positive territory

Except that's not what I said.

Barely Hedged

gaius c wrote: »

Except that's not what I said.

The below was said in response to Apr numbers being up. Youre taking the change from Dec - Apr and saying its still below if you take them additively:

gaius c wrote: »

Still below where it was in December though.

You then deduce/infer/extrapolate that this trend is not a good sign for the peak season months:

gaius c wrote: »

Not a great look for peak selling season.

What am i missing?

gaius c

Barely Hedged wrote: »

The below was said in response to Apr numbers being up. Youre taking the change from Dec - Apr and saying its still below if you take them additively:



You then deduce/infer/extrapolate that this trend is not a good sign for the peak season months:



What am i missing?

You have misunderstood "peak of selling season".
Peak selling is in the spring with another smaller "selling season" in the autumn. Summer is generally dead time for selling because folk are away on holidays, not least solicitors so even if you do transact then, progress is glacial. The reason spring is "peak" is down to a number of factors, the main one being that if you're moving your family, you want to have the deal done & dusted so you're in the new house in time for a new school year.

So allow me to re-word my statement so that you can read it as intended.
Still below where it was in December though. Not a great look for what should have been the peak of the spring selling season.

My overall point is that 1% over 5 months is essentially flat and that despite "high demand" stock levels are significantly above last year's with lots of prices drops already happening as vendors struggle to sell.

Barely Hedged

gaius c wrote: »

You have misunderstood "peak of selling season".
Peak selling is in the spring with another smaller "selling season" in the autumn. Summer is generally dead time for selling because folk are away on holidays, not least solicitors so even if you do transact then, progress is glacial. The reason spring is "peak" is down to a number of factors, the main one being that if you're moving your family, you want to have the deal done & dusted so you're in the new house in time for a new school year.

So allow me to re-word my statement so that you can read it as intended.
Still below where it was in December though. Not a great look for what should have been the peak of the spring selling season.

My overall point is that 1% over 5 months is essentially flat and that despite "high demand" stock levels are significantly above last year's with lots of prices drops already happening as vendors struggle to sell.

I didnt misunderstand - the largest transaction volumes are clustered over the summer months. Youve even provided numerical evidence of this in the post http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=95567906&postcount=1662. People will be buying now and over the coming months with the transactions finalised in June, July and September.

Why would you move your kids from school in April so they could be in a new school for the new school year in April? Theyd miss 2/3 months of the current year? That makes no sense. Theres logic to that argument but its certainly not borne out by transaction statistics regarding the months they conclude sales on.

Asking prices are dropping, not the sale prices. Sellers have put asking prices up at 2014 prices + 10% and are now finding they need to whip 5% or 10% off to generate interest.

Even though supply is increasing what about all the demand last year that hasnt bought. Where is that gone - nowhere?

Wheres all the new stock coming from - 8k units last year and 10k this year. That will be eaten up easily even though older houses are increasing too.

Taking the view that increasing supply will automatically lower prices, i think is naieve, without considering the demand thats out there from the preceding years lack of house building, the number of people in rental accommodation and the improving job prospects combined with wage inflation