Property Market 2015

enfant terrible

Barely Hedged wrote: »

I didnt misunderstand - the largest transaction volumes are clustered over the summer months. Youve even provided numerical evidence of this in the post http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=95567906&postcount=1662. People will be buying now and over the coming months with the transactions finalised in June, July and September.

Why would you move your kids from school in April so they could be in a new school for the new school year in April? Theyd miss 2/3 months of the current year? That makes no sense. Theres logic to that argument but its certainly not borne out by transaction statistics regarding the months they conclude sales on.

Asking prices are dropping, not the sale prices. Sellers have put asking prices up at 2014 prices + 10% and are now finding they need to whip 5% or 10% off to generate interest.

Even though supply is increasing what about all the demand last year that hasnt bought. Where is that gone - nowhere?

Wheres all the new stock coming from - 8k units last year and 10k this year. That will be eaten up easily even though older houses are increasing too.

Taking the view that increasing supply will automatically lower prices, i think is naieve, without considering the demand thats out there from the preceding years lack of house building, the number of people in rental accommodation and the improving job prospects combined with wage inflation

Would October, November and December be the cheapest time to buy so?

Barely Hedged

enfant terrible wrote: »

Would October, November and December be the cheapest time to buy so?

Not at all. Its just that it doesn't really suit the majority of sellers to list their property for sale then so they don't

gaius c

enfant terrible wrote: »

Would October, November and December be the cheapest time to buy so?

Not really. Residential buyer? Jan-Feb before spring selling season gets into swing is probably the best. Look for houses that have been up for months. Vendors worrying over xmas about the property that's been up for ages could well be afflicted by a bout of realism come the new year.

Also with all the various tax wheezes in recent years, the year end market has been clogged with investors trying to buy before the expiry.

gaius c

Barely Hedged wrote: »

I didnt misunderstand - the largest transaction volumes are clustered over the summer months. Youve even provided numerical evidence of this in the post http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=95567906&postcount=1662.

The Irish market is broken as you well know with a surplus of investors (often with cash) over residential buyers and also various tax wheezes that provide incentives to squeeze transactions into the end of the year to avail of whatever tax incentive is on offer.
Normal markets see the bulk of the selling in spring and the house moving over the summer.

People will be buying now and over the coming months with the transactions finalised in June, July and September.

Why would you move your kids from school in April so they could be in a new school for the new school year in April? Theyd miss 2/3 months of the current year? That makes no sense. Theres logic to that argument but its certainly not borne out by transaction statistics regarding the months they conclude sales on.

You might understand the investors market but you clearly don't understand the residential market.
Some explanations online:

The best time of the year to sell a house is the spring. Buyers come out of the woodwork during the spring, and with tax refund checks in the bank, spring buyers more often pay full price. In fact, sales peak in the spring, helping to explain why about 60% of those who move do so in the summer.

Linky

Is there an optimum season for selling?
Spring always comes out on top as the best time to sell. This is probably because people aren’t away for the summer holidays or busy with Christmas celebrations.
Another good thing about spring is that your home will look better when the garden is coming into bloom and the sun is (hopefully) out for longer.
Summer has never been the best time to sell a home. A lot of people go away and if you’re trying to sell to families, you should remember that they’re either going to be away or having most of their time taken up by child care during the school holidays
Autumn can be a good time to sell. If the weather’s mild your home will still look good and there are no major holidays to contend with. Make sure you’re ready to move quickly if you do find a buyer though because after October the market tends to slow right down
Winter can be a difficult time to sell, especially before Christmas. If you’re not going to be ready to put your home on the market before December, it’s probably worth waiting until January when people are starting to think about the year ahead
- See more at: http://hoa.org.uk/advice/guides-for-homeowners/i-am-selling/when-is-the-best-time-to-sell-my-house/#sthash.WSH6dXgR.dpuf

Asking prices are dropping, not the sale prices. Sellers have put asking prices up at 2014 prices + 10% and are now finding they need to whip 5% or 10% off to generate interest.

More than that actually because stock is starting to build up as neighbours realise that they've both reduced by the same amount and still not selling.

And sales prices are in fact dropping. Don't be fooled by two marginally positive months on the CSO index. They are still below where they were at the end of last year and they are down quite considerably from where they were last summer.

Even though supply is increasing what about all the demand last year that hasnt bought. Where is that gone - nowhere?

If the demand is still there, why is the panic from last year gone? If the demand is still there, why are there masses of price drops when everything sold for over asking price last year? Why is poorer quality stock taking longer to shift? If demand was genuinely as strong as last year, it would get snapped up out of desperation.

Wheres all the new stock coming from - 8k units last year and 10k this year. That will be eaten up easily even though older houses are increasing too.

A big factor is that landlords in arrears are being forced to sell. There was never any real shortage of stock in Dublin. What there is, is a shortage of available properties.

Taking the view that increasing supply will automatically lower prices, i think is naieve, without considering the demand thats out there from the preceding years lack of house building, the number of people in rental accommodation and the improving job prospects combined with wage inflation

Of course it will. It's basic economics.

And never forget, the 10% mortgages will be running out soon. That means a considerable curtailment of credit available to housebuyers.
Tick tock tick tock.

David900

gaius c wrote: »

Of course it will. It's basic economics.

I love this line. Supply and demand - sure isn't that basic economics?

Maybe you should have addressed the other valid points that were pointed out to you, that if the recovering economy continues along the same trajectory that demand may rise with supply.

Maybe that didn't fit into your know all concept of economics, or perhaps that was advanced economics and you missed that class?

yankinlk

Just checking in. Not following this boring thread daily - but I see the bears are still here.

Reality (as i am a seller). Location= outside the pale.
Last 3 years tried every Spring to sell house, not a hope of a genuine buyer, offers of serious low ball territory, but BEFORE they even asked one bank for a loan. time wasters all.

Fast Fwd to this year. Strong demand and houses in area have sold at double the low ball offers from those past years. (albeit smaller houses than mine) Im going to give it 6 weeks and report back. I genuinely have no idea yet - but it will be real data.

karenalot

Personal experience of property market in North Kildare. I came out of negative equity on paper in Oct 2014. Reasons for knowing/thinking this was asking and selling prices for same and similar properties at the time were going for slightly more than what I owed the bank. Had serious thoughts at time about selling up but didn't.

Fast forward to May 2015 and asking prices for same and similar properties have dropped by approx 20k. Not too many going up on PPR so cannot compare selling prices just yet. They may be selling for way more than asking but doubt it. So again on paper and based on asking prices I am back in negative equity.

The rental market is a different story altogether however. I could rent the property out 10 times over as there is such a shortage of 3 bed houses in the area.

jimosterberg

karenalot wrote: »

Personal experience of property market in North Kildare. I came out of negative equity on paper in Oct 2014. Reasons for knowing/thinking this was asking and selling prices for same and similar properties at the time were going for slightly more than what I owed the bank. Had serious thoughts at time about selling up but didn't.

Fast forward to May 2015 and asking prices for same and similar properties have dropped by approx 20k. Not too many going up on PPR so cannot compare selling prices just yet. They may be selling for way more than asking but doubt it. So again on paper and based on asking prices I am back in negative equity.

The rental market is a different story altogether however. I could rent the property out 10 times over as there is such a shortage of 3 bed houses in the area.

Exactly what I have seen in the area. Prices are well down on 2014 and there are 4 beds struggling to sell at 40k less than they were getting a few months ago. Estate agents have confirmed this to me. Some property in certain areas/estates or with particularly nice features are still getting a couple of bidders involved and hence can go above asking.

I'm househunting in north Kildare and all that you say tallies with what I've seen. This time last year was a nightmare (from our perspective!). Everything we viewed that was in half-decent condition had offers above the asking by the time we viewed it. In one case there was a five-way bidding war that took a bungalow in Maynooth about 25% over the asking - and it was in rag order.

Very frustrating for us. Then from December to fairly recently there wasn't much worth viewing at all. However, in the last month or so a few houses have popped up or dropped their price so that they are coming back towards what we can pay. There are a few 4-beds now in Celbridge that have been up for ages priced around 450k-500k. Still out of our reach but I've called about a couple of them and there are either no bids - or low bids that the seller is not keen on.

In Maynooth a few houses went up at the turn of the year which, last year, would have been gone in a flash but sat on the market for months. The asking prices were higher than last year but the market wasn't keeping pace.

Supply has also affected things. Castlepark in Maynooth sold its last phase before Christmas, houses at Newtown are up now, and there are a couple of new developments in Celbridge (at Chelmsford Manor and Hazelwood). Also saw a sign for Beechwood(?) in Leixlip which I think is new. These have all taken a chunk of buyers out of the system.

Taking all these things together, the wind has definitely changed. I think there are still plenty of buyers out there (me!) but their buying capacity hasn't changed much from last year and, thanks to Central Bank rules, has gone down a bit in some cases.

fret_wimp2

yankinlk wrote: »

Just checking in. Not following this boring thread daily - but I see the bears are still here.

Reality (as i am a seller). Location= outside the pale.
Last 3 years tried every Spring to sell house, not a hope of a genuine buyer, offers of serious low ball territory, but BEFORE they even asked one bank for a loan. time wasters all.

A person can ask what they want for a property, but its only worth what the highgest bidder will pay for it.

That can come down to bad luck by the right buyer not finding the property but more often than not it is down to overpricing.

Lower the price enough, it will sell. up to you if you think the price people are willing to pay is too low.

gaius c

Yeah, four years of "trying" to sell and not getting a sale agreed suggests that the asking price is wrong.

leinsterdude

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm househunting in north Kildare and all that you say tallies with what I've seen. This time last year was a nightmare (from our perspective!). Everything we viewed that was in half-decent condition had offers above the asking by the time we viewed it. In one case there was a five-way bidding war that took a bungalow in Maynooth about 25% over the asking - and it was in rag order.

Very frustrating for us. Then from December to fairly recently there wasn't much worth viewing at all. However, in the last month or so a few houses have popped up or dropped their price so that they are coming back towards what we can pay. There are a few 4-beds now in Celbridge that have been up for ages priced around 450k-500k. Still out of our reach but I've called about a couple of them and there are either no bids - or low bids that the seller is not keen on.

In Maynooth a few houses went up at the turn of the year which, last year, would have been gone in a flash but sat on the market for months. The asking prices were higher than last year but the market wasn't keeping pace.

Supply has also affected things. Castlepark in Maynooth sold its last phase before Christmas, houses at Newtown are up now, and there are a couple of new developments in Celbridge (at Chelmsford Manor and Hazelwood). Also saw a sign for Beechwood(?) in Leixlip which I think is new. These have all taken a chunk of buyers out of the system.

Taking all these things together, the wind has definitely changed. I think there are still plenty of buyers out there (me!) but their buying capacity hasn't changed much from last year and, thanks to Central Bank rules, has gone down a bit in some cases.

Hi, curious what you are looking to spend, why not try Naas, Kilcullen, Johnstown etc etc

helimachoptor

Frustrating time at the moment.

Bidding one 2 houses.

House 1, 50k drop and still very little interest however less than 2 hours after our bid we are outbid.. we've left the "other bidders" to it


House 2, on the market for a while, 80 drop over the last 4 months, in bits and requires a lot of work. 2 under bidders, one 50k below asking, one 40k below asking. Make a bid 30 below asking and the 50k under bidders have come up 30K..

I just wonder how genuine these bids are

Eugene Norman

helimachoptor wrote: »

Frustrating time at the moment.

Bidding one 2 houses.

House 1, 50k drop and still very little interest however less than 2 hours after our bid we are outbid.. we've left the "other bidders" to it


House 2, on the market for a while, 80 drop over the last 4 months, in bits and requires a lot of work. 2 under bidders, one 50k below asking, one 40k below asking. Make a bid 30 below asking and the 50k under bidders have come up 30K..

I just wonder how genuine these bids are

Estate agents should have records of those bids.

gaius c

helimachoptor wrote: »

Frustrating time at the moment.

Bidding one 2 houses.

House 1, 50k drop and still very little interest however less than 2 hours after our bid we are outbid.. we've left the "other bidders" to it


House 2, on the market for a while, 80 drop over the last 4 months, in bits and requires a lot of work. 2 under bidders, one 50k below asking, one 40k below asking. Make a bid 30 below asking and the 50k under bidders have come up 30K..

I just wonder how genuine these bids are

Price drops tend to attract interest. They could actually be genuine bids.

helimachoptor

Eugene Norman wrote: »

Estate agents should have records of those bids.

Yeah but there's no visibility, they may be phantom bids or they could be genuine

gaius c wrote: »

Price drops tend to attract interest. They could actually be genuine bids.

I agree, it just seems a little too convenient that within a couple of hours of the bid, its not liked we called @ 9am the next day after an open viewing, there had been 3 open viewings and we called midweek, 4/5 days after the last viewing.

handlemaster

helimachoptor wrote: »

Yeah but there's no visibility, they may be phantom bids or they could be genuine



I agree, it just seems a little too convenient that within a couple of hours of the bid, its not liked we called @ 9am the next day after an open viewing, there had been 3 open viewings and we called midweek, 4/5 days after the last viewing.

What about Best and final offers. What is the reason for that ?

tharmor

10% price drops in 2-3 houses i have been tracking....around adamstown

Riverireland

The new deposit and mortgage rules are cutting first time buyers out of the market. Have two friends whose house sales didn't go through before the new rules set in and both their buyers had to withdraw as they couldn't get the finance any more.

The rules need to reflect the difference I prices in the different regions in Ireland. City's should not have the same criteria as small remote areas if Ireland with regard to the level of deposit.

Villa05

Riverireland wrote:

The rules need to reflect the difference I prices in the different regions in Ireland. City's should not have the same criteria as small remote areas if Ireland with regard to the level of deposit.

The rules are there to cool an overheating market. The heat is in the cities. Measures that would appear to be working are a good thing. Do not change them.

Riverireland

Villa05 wrote: »

The rules are there to cool an overheating market. The heat is in the cities. Measures that would appear to be working are a good thing. Do not change them.

There was no over heat in the market other than South county dublin. There is a huge homeless crisis and a massive housing shortage in general. Supply needs to be increased. I have no vested interest in this area, just own my own home and think people are entitled to that.

freelancerTax

Riverireland wrote: »

There was no over heat in the market other than South county dublin. There is a huge homeless crisis and a massive housing shortage in general. Supply needs to be increased. I have no vested interest in this area, just own my own home and think people are entitled to that.

only entitled to what they can afford not what they "want".. people need to adjust their expectations based on their means . if you can't afford it either work harder or go somewhere you can afford

Eugene Norman

freelancerTax wrote: »

only entitled to what they can afford not what they "want".. people need to adjust their expectations based on their means . if you can't afford it either work harder or go somewhere you can afford

Or we build more houses.

Bob24

Riverireland wrote: »

The rules need to reflect the difference I prices in the different regions in Ireland. City's should not have the same criteria as small remote areas if Ireland with regard to the level of deposit.

Keeping on mind that as far as the CBI is concerned the primary role is to protect banks and borrowers from themselves and their temptation of over lending / over borrowing - doesn't it makes sense to apply the same ratios to everyone?

How exactly would you amend the rules?

Balmed Out

helimachoptor wrote: »

Frustrating time at the moment.

Bidding one 2 houses.

House 1, 50k drop and still very little interest however less than 2 hours after our bid we are outbid.. we've left the "other bidders" to it


House 2, on the market for a while, 80 drop over the last 4 months, in bits and requires a lot of work. 2 under bidders, one 50k below asking, one 40k below asking. Make a bid 30 below asking and the 50k under bidders have come up 30K..

I just wonder how genuine these bids are

Id say they are. When they receive a bid they'll ring about previous bidders or people who viewed and expressed an interest, people often wait for another bid to come in and set the ball rolling before they bid themselves. Having bid on about 15 houses in the past I have yet to see one go on the register at a lower value then the highest bid I was told about.

audi12

Riverireland wrote: »

The new deposit and mortgage rules are cutting first time buyers out of the market. Have two friends whose house sales didn't go through before the new rules set in and both their buyers had to withdraw as they couldn't get the finance any more.

The rules need to reflect the difference I prices in the different regions in Ireland. City's should not have the same criteria as small remote areas if Ireland with regard to the level of deposit.

Good there is a lot of sheep out there who are pushing up the price of houses because they have no clue what they are doing when it comes to money. They need to be stopped before they drive up the price of houses for the rest of us anymore.

stevedublin

audi12 wrote: »

Good there is a lot of sheep out there who are pushing up the price of houses because they have no clue what they are doing when it comes to money.

They want to put their own roof over their head so they don't have to rent for the rest of their lives.
If you are not prepared to pay the market price of a house, then you should look to something you can afford rather than complaining about those who are prepared to pay what its worth.
I'd love to buy a ferrari for the same price as a moped, but i don't go around calling those who do pay big bucks to buy a ferrari sheep!

gaius c

Riverireland wrote: »

There was no over heat in the market other than South county dublin. There is a huge homeless crisis and a massive housing shortage in general. Supply needs to be increased. I have no vested interest in this area, just own my own home and think people are entitled to that.

Interesting view. Won't be shared by many here.

audi12

stevedublin wrote: »

They want to put their own roof over their head so they don't have to rent for the rest of their lives.
If you are not prepared to pay the market price of a house, then you should look to something you can afford rather than complaining about those who are prepared to pay what its worth.
I'd love to buy a ferrari for the same price as a moped, but i don't go around calling those who do pay big bucks to buy a ferrari sheep!

There sheep because they are all buying at the same time pushing up the price of houses for everyone as soon as they hear prices are increasing they jump on bandwagon get some financial education no wonder people got wiped out in the crash

stevedublin

audi12 wrote: »

There sheep because they are all buying at the same time pushing up the price of houses for everyone as soon as they hear prices are increasing they jump on bandwagon get some financial education no wonder people got wiped out in the crash

more people are buying now because the economy is improving, more people have jobs or better paid jobs, not some organised conspiracy to drive up prices!