Property Market 2015

Bob24

Michael D Not Higgins wrote: »

Yes but look at the years in question and in particular the variance of birth rate ten years apart, early 80s on is when they are hitting 20, early 70s when they're leaving 20s. The variance alone doesn't account for nearly enough of the change in the other graph.

Sure it is a mix of different factors. Drop in birth rates is one, emigration of Irish national indeed is another one, and a third one would be a slow down in immigration of non-Irish nationals into Ireland (and the fact many of those who came in the late 90s'/early 2000s have returned home or moved somewhere else).

I guess my point is that it would be naive to think the large drop in 20 some things is mostly due to young Irish people emigrating (and that they will all come back and buy property).

They are playing a significant part, but I would think they are not the majority reason.

gaius c

Bob24 wrote: »

Might also have something to do with this:

Pretty much. 80's were the opposite of a baby boom.
The peak for the 20 somethings is from the 70's baby boom which ended by 77-78 or so.

I'd expect to see Dan O'Brien's graph (the one I posted originally) show a considerable flattening in the next few years. It'll be 2020's before we see any change in that. Over 65's will continue to grow though.

Michael D Not Higgins

gaius c wrote: »

Pretty much. 80's were the opposite of a baby boom.
The peak for the 20 somethings is from the 70's baby boom which ended by 77-78 or so.

I'd expect to see Dan O'Brien's graph (the one I posted originally) show a considerable flattening in the next few years. It'll be 2020's before we see any change in that. Over 65's will continue to grow though.

But look again, if the 70s had a higher birth rate than the 80s then the graph should be dropping during the 2000-2010 part, as the 70s kids pass into their 30s and fewer 80s kids replace them. This is obviously supplemented by immigration.

Now, the 80s to 90s are fairly flat so the graph should flatten at the 2010 mark, but obviously emigration takes over. It's clear that immigration/emigration is the driver of that 20-something number.

Barely Hedged

johnp001 wrote: »

Economic progress has been made in that the sharp decline in economic indicators has been largely arrested which is an "improvement" of sorts but there is no significant and sustained increase in earnings like in the the previous bubble.
Loans for house purchase continue to decline

Who said anything about earnings comparable to "the previous bubble"? Im talking about demand for housing in one of the worlds best performing Western economies. Why is everything based on "the previous bubble"?

Why is there not an acceptance that economies can grow, housing demand can increase but that its not always a bubble?

Barely Hedged

gaius c wrote: »

It's the demographics. Less FTB's around and all the folk at viewings are people in their thirties who couldn't buy years ago.

First point - how will this impact the property market in 2015? Do you think its at the fore front of peoples thinking when theyre purchasing a house now? Is it on a banks mortgage application form? Do investors consider it when buying property?

Second point - is this a serious argument for the price of property falling in 2015 or just more "bear" points being raised in the hope that something will eventually stick? The adhesive quality of it hasnt been great to date

Barely Hedged

johnp001 wrote: »

Emigration for 2014 is significantly down on the 2 years prior.
http://www.cso.ie/multiquicktables/quickTables.aspx?id=pea18_2

It is a big assumption that the Irish economy will continue to grow against the headwind of widespread deflation internationally.
What is the driver for the diaspora to return to prop up Ireland's property market which is showing all the signs of being about to collapse?

Deflation - what deflation?

Surely the bolded part of your post is a wind up?

What do you define as a collapse in Irelands property market and what are the signs of it?

Bob24

Michael D Not Higgins wrote: »

But look again, if the 70s had a higher birth rate than the 80s then the graph should be dropping during the 2000-2010 part, as the 70s kids pass into their 30s and fewer 80s kids replace them. This is obviously supplemented by immigration.

Now, the 80s to 90s are fairly flat so the graph should flatten at the 2010 mark, but obviously emigration takes over. It's clear that immigration/emigration is the driver of that 20-something number.

The sharp rise up to 2008 is easily explained by this (I assume we will all agree a large proportion of immigrants would have been in their 20s):



The drop we can see from there onwards is more difficult to quantify, but I would say Irish national emigrating represent less than 50% of the drop and non-Irish national returning home after a few years here slightly over 50%.


Edit: see table 2 here: http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2014/#.VW2YKUaBGx0

In 2008-2010 and majority of emigrants from Ireland where not Irish. Since then it is pretty much been 50/50.

Bob24

Also looking at table 2 here, form 2009 to 2014 the total balance of Irish citizens leaving and coming back to Ireland is about -130000.

Even if all of the leavers were in their 20s (which clearly isn't the case even though they are the majority group), it would only explain a little over half of the drop seen on the graph posted by gaius c during the same period.

The_Conductor

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Deflation - what deflation?

Most of our major trading partners are now in deflation- the UK figures released last week- indicate they are now at an inflation rate of -0.1 (against a 2% target). Germany is dressing this up as a boon to consumers (particularly given that the source of the deflation is lower fuel costs). Anyhow- deflation is here- it may be short lived- unlike Japan's lost decade- but its here nonetheless.

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Surely the bolded part of your post is a wind up?

Ireland's property market is doing some damn strange things. When the AIPs issued late last year finally expire this month- there is the potential for a complete and utter halt to happen in property sales. Our property market is currently on life support (alongside anabolic steroids)- and the machine is being switched off. You'd have to be very brave to make a call on whats going to happen next.

Barely Hedged wrote: »

What do you define as a collapse in Irelands property market and what are the signs of it?

Increasingly lengths to sell property. Prices of new developments being revised downwards. Pre-existing properties being taken off the market for a few weeks- and then put back on (to try and outfox tracking websites?). Wild fluctuations (both up and down) in the selling prices of properties in the same developments......

The Irish market is wobbling like crazy.

Michael D Not Higgins

Bob24 wrote: »

Also looking at table 2 here, form 2009 to 2014 the total balance of Irish citizens leaving and coming back to Ireland is about -130000.

Even if all of the leavers were in their 20s (which clearly isn't the case even though they are the majority group), it would only explain a little over half of the drop seen on the graph posted by gaius c during the same period.

Ah I see I've read your graph wrong. The total fertility rate is different to a birth rate which dropped quicker than the TFR. Yes, it appears the change is driven roughly half by migration and half by birth numbers.

johnp001

I would see the situation very similarly to The_Conductor and would also add that deflation issue is very much international.

The_Conductor wrote: »

Most of our major trading partners are now in deflation- the UK figures released last week- indicate they are now at an inflation rate of -0.1 (against a 2% target). Germany is dressing this up as a boon to consumers (particularly given that the source of the deflation is lower fuel costs). Anyhow- deflation is here- it may be short lived- unlike Japan's lost decade- but its here nonetheless.

The latest inflation rate for the United States is -0.2% through the 12 months ended April 2015
China is also under threat of deflation.

gaius c

Barely Hedged wrote: »

First point - how will this impact the property market in 2015?

Less buyers for FTB-type properties.

Second point - is this a serious argument for the price of property falling in 2015 or just more "bear" points being raised in the hope that something will eventually stick? The adhesive quality of it hasnt been great to date

Nope. It's taking a closer look at the "demand" side of the supply-demand equation. It's as valid a prism to examine the market as general economic performance.

Barely Hedged

The_Conductor wrote: »

Most of our major trading partners are now in deflation- the UK figures released last week- indicate they are now at an inflation rate of -0.1 (against a 2% target). Germany is dressing this up as a boon to consumers (particularly given that the source of the deflation is lower fuel costs). Anyhow- deflation is here- it may be short lived- unlike Japan's lost decade- but its here nonetheless.

Eurozone, UK and US:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32528129

Target of 2%. Maybe back in 2012. UK current inflation is due to the slack from low oil and Tesco pounding down prices to try and reclaim market share. A good part of the BOE MPC is talking about increasing rates between Nov and Feb.
I pay no heed to the spend, spend, spend economy of the US and -0.2%. Nothing to see there in terms of deflation.

The_Conductor wrote: »

Ireland's property market is doing some damn strange things. When the AIPs issued late last year finally expire this month- there is the potential for a complete and utter halt to happen in property sales. Our property market is currently on life support (alongside anabolic steroids)- and the machine is being switched off. You'd have to be very brave to make a call on whats going to happen next.

Nothing but hyperbole there in bold. Nobody i know, and when i enquired several times over the 4 years, got mortgages at the fabled 90% LTV. They simply wernt lending to anybody without substantial personal equity. It was for the purpose of the banks online calculator => your point is overstated in its impact.

The_Conductor wrote: »

Increasingly lengths to sell property. Prices of new developments being revised downwards. Pre-existing properties being taken off the market for a few weeks- and then put back on (to try and outfox tracking websites?). Wild fluctuations (both up and down) in the selling prices of properties in the same developments......

The Irish market is wobbling like crazy.

We had enormous growth last year. Its nothing but a correction on ambitious asking prices this year - who would blame a seller. Mary down the road sold for 1mio. Lets put it on the market at 1.1mio. The reality is that this property then gets reduced to 1 mio and sells for it.

Houses have been taken down off Daft and MyHome and put back up since the websites operated. Common practice

Barely Hedged

gaius c wrote: »

Less buyers for FTB-type properties.

In the last 6 months of this year, you think that that a dearth of FTB's due to a 14 year (very, very generalised and open to massive questioning about its relevance) trend will impact the property prices downwards - i can quote you on that?

gaius c wrote: »

Nope. It's taking a closer look at the "demand" side of the supply-demand equation. It's as valid a prism to examine the market as general economic performance.

Youre making some sweeping and very naieve generalisations in your analysis of the demand side of the market for the next 10 to 20 years, never mind the next 6 months.

You discount inward immigration
You discount smaller households => greater demand on houses

tharmor

I was informed today by AIB that i don't qualify as first time buyer as i have previously purchased property overseas !! Is this a new rule ??

The_Conductor

tharmor wrote: »

I was informed today by AIB that i don't qualify as first time buyer as i have previously purchased property overseas !! Is this a new rule ??

No- its always been this way- you cannot have owned property in Ireland or abroad previously- in order to qualify as a first time buyer. Its been this way for over 30 years- and its not unique to AIB.

tharmor

The_Conductor wrote:

No- its always been this way- you cannot have owned property in Ireland or abroad previously- in order to qualify as a first time buyer. Its been this way for over 30 years- and its not unique to AIB.

Ok....i was not aware....deposit accumulation resumes...hopefully markets will crack more...

helimachoptor

Have gone sale agreed, 90k below the original asking price.

Had a couple of drops to get it to a slightly more realistic price.

Bob24

helimachoptor wrote: »

Have gone sale agreed, 90k below the original asking price.

Had a couple of drops to get it to a slightly more realistic price.

Congats!

Victor

Just on that graph of births, it is 9 years old. There were 75,000 births per year in 2008-2010, although that has dropped back to 69,000. http://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/birthsdeathsandmarriages/numberofbirthsdeathsandmarriages/

Michael D Not Higgins wrote: »

Yes but look at the years in question and in particular the variance of birth rate ten years apart, early 80s on is when they are hitting 20, early 70s when they're leaving 20s. The variance alone doesn't account for nearly enough of the change in the other graph.

Today's 20-30 year olds were born between 1985 and 1995.

Dunford

http://www.bbc.com/capital/story/20150601-the-worlds-best-and-worst-housing-markets

helimachoptor

helimachoptor wrote: »

Have gone sale agreed, 90k below the original asking price.

Had a couple of drops to get it to a slightly more realistic price.

Whoah - congrats Helimachoptor! What kind of percentage was it from the original asking (ballpark: 5%? 20%?)

Does the house need much work?

Anyway, hope all proceeds smoothly from here.

helimachoptor

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Whoah - congrats Helimachoptor! What kind of percentage was it from the original asking (ballpark: 5%? 20%?)

Does the house need much work?

Anyway, hope all proceeds smoothly from here.

16% reduction on original asking.

We'll be doing work which basically puts us at 9% below asking. Some is optional some is needed.

Just need to hope we don't get gazumped

Michael D Not Higgins

Victor wrote: »

Today's 20-30 year olds were born between 1985 and 1995.

Yes but I was referencing the graph from Twitter which starts in 2000, ie the 20 year olds born in 1980 and the 30 year olds born in 1970.

gaius c

Good luck with it helimachoptor.

jmayo

Dunford wrote: »

http://www.bbc.com/capital/story/20150601-the-worlds-best-and-worst-housing-markets

Interesting and scary.

It has top 3 of Ireland, Dubai and Tallinn.

They even have the cheeky sentence to start it off

"If you have a cottage in Ireland, a villa on a man-made island in Dubai, or even an apartment in Estonia’s capital, Tallinn, then you’re probably feeling pretty comfortable right now."

I know plenty of cottages that are still worth fook all and very much look like remaining that way for the forseeable future.
Maybe I just live in the wrong area or maybe they are talking about a cottage off Shrewsbury Road or in Foxrock :rolleyes:

Two of the places with the biggest bubble prices are now being touted as the best performers yet again.

Am I the only one that finds that scary as sh** and shows we as a species seem to be incapable of learning.

Also I think the bottom three should have Donetsk rather than Kiev.

johnp001

jmayo wrote: »

Interesting and scary.

It has top 3 of Ireland, Dubai and Tallinn.

They even have the cheeky sentence to start it off



I know plenty of cottages that are still worth fook all and very much look like remaining that way for the forseeable future.
Maybe I just live in the wrong area or maybe they are talking about a cottage off Shrewsbury Road or in Foxrock :rolleyes:

Two of the places with the biggest bubble prices are now being touted as the best performers yet again.

Am I the only one that finds that scary as sh** and shows we as a species seem to be incapable of learning.

Also I think the bottom three should have Donetsk rather than Kiev.

If you want scary read this piece about the NZ property market (lifted the link from propertypin discussion on NZ housing market) Auckland's housing riot

Or just a blast from the past from closer to home. Seemingly back in vogue today...


http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/the-smart-ballsy-guys-are-buying-up-property-right-now-26307728.html

zl1whqvjs75cdy

The Irish are enamored with property and its ownership, probably a deep seated physiological thing harking back to the time of the plantations etc. This, combined with an inexplicable desire to "one up" each other has led to the mass buying in leafy Dublin postcodes, thus upping the price. There is a connection in peoples' minds between owning a house in Foxrock and success. It doesn't matter how exposed you are to debt, nor does it matter that one single interest rate rise will have you in the red, all that matters is that you can stick D4 on the end of your address. Its not logical, its not good sense but it is inherently Irish. I despair.

Greyian

But this time is different. Sure, if it goes wrong, we'll just have a soft landing. Anyone who thinks differently, you're just cribbing and moaning.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfjGSfuSQpA

fret_wimp2

johnp001 wrote: »

If you want scary read this piece about the NZ property market (lifted the link from propertypin discussion on NZ housing market) Auckland's housing riot

Or just a blast from the past from closer to home. Seemingly back in vogue today...


http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/the-smart-ballsy-guys-are-buying-up-property-right-now-26307728.html

Excuse my ignorance and language but what the F**K does Brendan O'Connor, a (pretty terrible) talkshow host, know about property that he gets to advise the nation in a national newspaper?