Property Market 2015

Rew

freelancerTax wrote: »

what is the general location if you don't mind me asking?

East Meath

MayBea

Barely Hedged wrote: »

What areas are you looking at price drops in particular?

How does the level the price has dropped to compare with the sale price of a similar property last year?

This property in Stillorgan that we were following is sale agreed now at 490k afaik:
http://www.property.ie/property-for-sale/140-Stillorgan-Heath-Stillorgan-Co-Dublin/1034737/
Identical house went for 535K last July: http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/153-stillorgan-heath-stillorgan-dublin/2826707
Another one in August for 535k also:
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/48-stillorgan-heath-stillorgan-south-county-dublin/2826378

Michael D Not Higgins

MayBea wrote: »

This property in Stillorgan that we were following is sale agreed now at 490k afaik:
http://www.property.ie/property-for-sale/140-Stillorgan-Heath-Stillorgan-Co-Dublin/1034737/
Identical house went for 535K last July: http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/153-stillorgan-heath-stillorgan-dublin/2826707
Another one in August for 535k also:
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/48-stillorgan-heath-stillorgan-south-county-dublin/2826378

And 142 went for 495k on the same day as 153 last year.

MayBea

The 142 has never been advertised on daft/myhome, which is quite unusual.

ionapaul

MayBea wrote: »

This property in Stillorgan that we were following is sale agreed now at 490k afaik:
http://www.property.ie/property-for-sale/140-Stillorgan-Heath-Stillorgan-Co-Dublin/1034737/
Identical house went for 535K last July: http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/153-stillorgan-heath-stillorgan-dublin/2826707
Another one in August for 535k also:
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/48-stillorgan-heath-stillorgan-south-county-dublin/2826378

My wife and I attended one of the open viewings (Sat morning) for 153 last summer - it was mental, so busy and panic was in the air! It's down on my spreadsheet of properties viewed over the past year as the one with the highest €/sq foot ratio, by far. Insane price, even at the time, really silly stuff.

gaius c

Piriz wrote: »

an estate agent described this to me a few weeks ago, he described it as "they are all scrambling for market share".. he also advised me not to purchase until this time next year.. for the record this was not a business discussion of any kind and he told me what I believe to be his true opinion on the market.

I'd be wary of that kind of timing advice because even though I'm generally bearish, I'm also pragmatic and that if there's a good deal on the table in front of you now and it's the right time, just do it. There are still some okay deals in the current market and there are some smart vendors happy to undercut their competition in order to get the sale.

As for the timeline, the market peak was last summer and we're coming up to nearly a year later now. EA's pretty much refused to admit that anything was "up" with the market until the end of last year so they are lagging by 6 months themselves.

He is right that the market has turned down and it looks to be turning down further but make your own decision on the timing.

Piriz

gaius c wrote: »

I'd be wary of that kind of timing advice because even though I'm generally bearish, I'm also pragmatic and that if there's a good deal on the table in front of you now and it's the right time, just do it. There are still some okay deals in the current market and there are some smart vendors happy to undercut their competition in order to get the sale.

As for the timeline, the market peak was last summer and we're coming up to nearly a year later now. EA's pretty much refused to admit that anything was "up" with the market until the end of last year so they are lagging by 6 months themselves.

He is right that the market has turned down and it looks to be turning down further but make your own decision on the timing.

I'd agree and thanks for the advice..

decko11

gaius c wrote: »

I'd be wary of that kind of timing advice because even though I'm generally bearish, I'm also pragmatic and that if there's a good deal on the table in front of you now and it's the right time, just do it. There are still some okay deals in the current market and there are some smart vendors happy to undercut their competition in order to get the sale.

As for the timeline, the market peak was last summer and we're coming up to nearly a year later now. EA's pretty much refused to admit that anything was "up" with the market until the end of last year so they are lagging by 6 months themselves.

He is right that the market has turned down and it looks to be turning down further but make your own decision on the timing.

When talking to an honest EA - this is also what I was told.

Also I good friend of mine, due to a separation / negative equity has to sell

She cannot sell for less than 950k and after 6 months of trying the EA (one of biggest) has advised that she wont get that price (even though they told her 1050-1100 6 months ago ) and to talk to the bank

gaius c

EA's have been caught with their pants down here. Whatever about telling vendors one price while having a lower price in their heads for second hand houses, pricing new developments wrong shows that they haven't got a clue.

And this is from the supposed experts.

Seems to be affecting the higher end of the market more with plenty of activity at the lower end but that could change.

decko11

gaius c wrote: »

EA's have been caught with their pants down here. Whatever about telling vendors one price while having a lower price in their heads for second hand houses, pricing new developments wrong shows that they haven't got a clue.

And this is from the supposed experts.

Seems to be affecting the higher end of the market more with plenty of activity at the lower end but that could change.

Their salary / commission must be suffering ... what new developments cannot sell at asking ?

This new development in Celbridge had priced A-rated 5-beds at €550,000, dropped them in early May to €490,000; dropped on Friday to €450,000.

A special award for arm-chancery there with the original asking price. Thought 490k was a bit optimistic but then a development in Leixlip launched with similar spec but the 5-beds were around 430k so they hadn't much choice but to drop it.

Meanwhile, in Celbridge second-hand houses in this bracket are also dipping. Yesterday, this 4-bed in a 'sought-after' estate dropped to 469k from 499k. Came to market a few months ago asking 535k. That's a serious drop.

And this bungalow in quiet cul de sac with large side garden (and planning for a second house at the side) dropped yesterday from 425k to 395k.

gaius c

A bit closer to Dublin, Grange Hill and Sallygrove have seen drops too.

castle2012

Must be in certain areas theirs a shortage of stock . I'm still seeing price rises in my area , East Meath/ Drogheda , or maybe its the cap kicking in , Pushing buyers further afield for value ,

I suppose we are pretty much at the point where the mortgage lending cap is in full effect. If you got approval in early Feb (days before the new rules were announced) your AIP would expire a few weeks from now. Realistically, if you haven't gone sale agreed by now you're cutting it pretty fine!

Meanwhile, supply is definitely up in some places. I mentioned new builds in Celbridge (an area where I'm looking) and there are a few other new developments nearby, as well as a new one in Leixlip that launched last weekend.

Even the second-hand market has more supply than this time last year. Places like Weston in Lucan probably had two or three houses for sale last year; now there are 10 (some priced well, others priced without regard for reality).

But I'm sure there are areas slightly further from Dublin where no building has taken place or where things are only just getting started again.

NinjaTruncs

Deleted User wrote: »

I suppose we are pretty much at the point where the mortgage lending cap is in full effect. If you got approval in early Feb (days before the new rules were announced) your AIP would expire a few weeks from now. Realistically, if you haven't gone sale agreed by now you're cutting it pretty fine!

Many banks gave 6 months AIP so it may be closer to September when they are running out. I renewed mine (BOI) in Feb and it's good until August, similarly with a friend of mine whose is good until early September.

decko11

NinjaTruncs wrote: »

Many banks gave 6 months AIP so it may be closer to September when they are running out. I renewed mine (BOI) in Feb and it's good until August, similarly with a friend of mine whose is good until early September.

was your AIP before the new rules came in ?

NinjaTruncs

I got mine back in May and let it lapse, the mortgage adviser in the bank rang me a few days before the new rules came in to say she was going to reapply and it would be good for 6 months (the approval in May was good for 6 months also), can't recall the exact dates. Luckily our mortgage will fall within the new rules anyway so it was never of much concern to us.

gaius c

castle2012 wrote: »

Must be in certain areas theirs a shortage of stock . I'm still seeing price rises in my area , East Meath/ Drogheda , or maybe its the cap kicking in , Pushing buyers further afield for value ,

Asking prices or selling prices? There's some silly asking prices out there as unrealistic vendors use "2014 price plus 10%" as their valuation guide.

gaius c

NinjaTruncs wrote: »

Many banks gave 6 months AIP so it may be closer to September when they are running out. I renewed mine (BOI) in Feb and it's good until August, similarly with a friend of mine whose is good until early September.

Try drawing it down and you could well discover that the AIP isn't worth the paper it's written on. They are applying the new rules fairly firmly and AIP is only "a rough budgeting tool".

NinjaTruncs

NinjaTruncs wrote: »

I got mine back in May and let it lapse, the mortgage adviser in the bank rang me a few days before the new rules came in to say she was going to reapply and it would be good for 6 months (the approval in May was good for 6 months also), can't recall the exact dates. Luckily our mortgage will fall within the new rules anyway so it was never of much concern to us.

Very similar to my experience. I was actually mildly annoyed that they were going out of their way to make sure everyone they had been in contact with was up to date the week before the new rules kicked in.

But even at that, if you get six months, that still only gets you from early Feb to early August. How are people getting to September?

In practical terms, if you want to draw down on mortgage approval that expires in August, you'd want to be doing a deal very, very soon.

Example: you see a house next week, organise a viewing, vendor wants a second viewing to test the market (takes a week or two), you make an offer, maybe there's a bit of a bidding war or the seller is looking for more, then you agree a price (another week or two), and being the legal stuff. Could take six weeks, could take three months - and that's presuming the seller isn't in a chain and can move immediately.

I'd argue that to all intents and purposes, the pre-Feb AIPs are stale: best before last week.

NinjaTruncs

Deleted User wrote: »

In practical terms, if you want to draw down on mortgage approval that expires in August, you'd want to be doing a deal very, very soon.

Not that this isn't the case, but I was told that approval is good as long as you find a property before the approval expires, you don't need to draw down before the approval runs out.

But as gaius_c has said, it may be a different story when you go to apply, the banks may be applying the new rules anyway which will render AIP worthless. I guess when estate agents start asking when you got your approval you will know how many deals are falling through due to people with old approval being rejected.

That would certainly save some time. I was thinking that drawdown was the key date. So I suppose you would go sale agreed, get a Letter of Offer, and then the clock is stopped while you go through legal stuff.

How did your friend get approval until September?

Incidentally, last week I bid on a house and, was asked for copies of mortgage approval and/or to be put in touch with my bank. Never come across that level of scrutiny before. I've been asked 'do you have funds in place?' many times but they just took my word for it.

seamus

Many banks are offering a full credit approval, which is effectively a loan offer document that's not on a specific property. Provided you find a property within that six months and get a loan offer document on that property, you then usually have a further six months (though they'll looks for up-to-date copies of some documents, like bank statements and payslips) to draw down.

Unlike AIP, the full credit approval doesn't require a new credit assessment provided that you don't exceed the amount you've been approved for.

Estate Agents asking for proof of funds is something that's come around in the last six months, all of the agents who've asked us for it have said it's because there are so many sales falling through due to funding not being available to buyers. The estate agents are taking the flak for this, obviously. I'm pretty sure from a data protection point of view, the EA is not allowed to disclose how much you've been approved for, just that they're satisfied you can deliver on the bid that you've offered.

I've only been asked for it at the end of the bidding process though - i.e. when a vendor is preparing to accept an offer but wants to be sure the bidder is good for it, before they go sale agreed.

Bob24

seamus wrote: »

I've only been asked for it at the end of the bidding process though - i.e. when a vendor is preparing to accept an offer but wants to be sure the bidder is good for it, before they go sale agreed.

Of course, they don't mind having people who don't actually have funding available bidding against you and forcing you to increase your offer. But when it comes to getting the actual paperwork started they don't want to waste their time with someone who will pull-out.

koheim

Celbridge has currently only three properties for rent, this is extraordinary for the largest town in Kildare. Do not think prices will fall, other than that obvious dream asking prices will be reduced...

The_Conductor

koheim wrote: »

Celbridge has currently only three properties for rent, this is extraordinary for the largest town in Kildare. Do not think prices will fall, other than that obvious dream asking prices will be reduced...

Purchase prices are falling (in Celbridge). Landlords are getting out too- I'm personally familiar with two landlords who have property in Celbridge, selling at the moment. The amount of property available to let- is falling- a significant number of landlords are trying to divest before the market falls further.

gaius c

koheim wrote: »

Celbridge has currently only three properties for rent, this is extraordinary for the largest town in Kildare. Do not think prices will fall, other than that obvious dream asking prices will be reduced...

Meanwhile there's around 70 properties there for sale, more if you take it that 1 ad for Primrose Village covers more than one property...

gaius c

Deleted User wrote: »

That would certainly save some time. I was thinking that drawdown was the key date. So I suppose you would go sale agreed, get a Letter of Offer, and then the clock is stopped while you go through legal stuff.

How did your friend get approval until September?

Incidentally, last week I bid on a house and, was asked for copies of mortgage approval and/or to be put in touch with my bank. Never come across that level of scrutiny before. I've been asked 'do you have funds in place?' many times but they just took my word for it.

Give them redacted letters for the first but the second... Bank wouldn't be allowed to disclose information anyway.

Yes, I blacked out key info (LTV; income etc.)

koheim

gaius c wrote: »

Meanwhile there's around 70 properties there for sale, more if you take it that 1 ad for Primrose Village covers more than one property...

More than 35 properties where sold in the first 4 months, so 70 for sale doesn't sound like very many. And most of asking prices are in complete dream land.

I am renting out a property in Celbridge, but so consider selling now. It is just so easy to rent it out at the moment, crazy demand...