Property Market 2015

gosplan

Ah, they're only amazing posts in fairness. Each one better than the next.

I'm actually glued to all of it though. Buying in a couple of months and the obsession has kicked in.

Surprised there's not more people in here and on the pin discussing the price falls tbh. Are there just no buyers around or what?

MarkAnthony

gosplan wrote: »

Ah, they're only amazing posts in fairness. Each one better than the next.

I'm actually glued to all of it though. Buying in a couple of months and the obsession has kicked in.

Surprised there's not more people in here and on the pin discussing the price falls tbh. Are there just no buyers around or what?

I know I'm stating the obvious here but there is a floor and ceiling regardless of anything else. There are people out there who seem to think that houses in Dublin will be €50,000. As the last crash proved they'll only go so low before people, in the main, stay put.

While the last boom did not bear this out, the reverse is also true. People will only go so high (more in replayments per month than purchase price) before they just stay put or keep renting. 450K for a 3 bed in Raheny is just bonkers! One or two dart stops gets you a four/five bed detached in Kilbarrack.

tharmor

I am waiting patiently accumulating my deposit

fret_wimp2

<MOD SNIP>

Unfortunately saving everything for a deposit doesnt put you ahead of the game nowdays, it just keeps you level with everyone else.

athtrasna

This thread gets a lot more leeway than most threads in the forum. That is not a licence to turn the thread into an off topic forum thread or a wannabe after hours thread


Mod

Amidoman

I am renting right now but decided to buy and contracts are signed. Buying in Bettystown a new house 3 bed for originally 225k. I followed this thread for months trying to make my mind up regarding the trend. I see most people posting about prices falling but they are all for the houses in 400-600k range actually. I cannot afford it and many people renting right now would not unless they have a good deposit saved.
Why is no one posting about prices of houses in 200-300k range? There are no falls. There are rather increases and I have observed daft and myhome for months checking nearly everyday. Been to far too many viewings. Tokk part in bidding war and this is why decided to go for a new house with a huge garden even if it is outside Dublin.
Now the question is - am I going to loose? Will the prices in this range fall too? It seems like the unrealisitc prices fall significantly and all new houses in new developments are priced.more every time. Is there no.kne who wants to buy for under 300k? Only rich people here?
There are a few wrongly priced estates like castlemanor in clonee/clonsilla. Agents keep in touch trying to sell.as not much interest. Saggart priced very high for 2 and 3bed, still sold mostly.
I think that because of the current shrinking renting market, rising rent prices and tens of people coming to viewings it will be harder and harder to rent and afford paying rent. Whoever can will run away from.renting and this will drive the prices in the range of 200-300k which is for 2-4 bed houses depending on the area (including commuting belt).
Anyone thinking the same? All price falls mentioned and all evidence was for houses in 400-600k range. Anyone witnessed price fall on houses pricrd below 300k?

tharmor

Amidoman wrote:

I am renting right now but decided to buy and contracts are signed. Buying in Bettystown a new house 3 bed for originally 225k. I followed this thread for months trying to make my mind up regarding the trend. I see most people posting about prices falling but they are all for the houses in 400-600k range actually. I cannot afford it and many people renting right now would not unless they have a good deposit saved. Why is no one posting about prices of houses in 200-300k range? There are no falls. There are rather increases and I have observed daft and myhome for months checking nearly everyday. Been to far too many viewings. Tokk part in bidding war and this is why decided to go for a new house with a huge garden even if it is outside Dublin. Now the question is - am I going to loose? Will the prices in this range fall too? It seems like the unrealisitc prices fall significantly and all new houses in new developments are priced.more every time. Is there no.kne who wants to buy for under 300k? Only rich people here? There are a few wrongly priced estates like castlemanor in clonee/clonsilla. Agents keep in touch trying to sell.as not much interest. Saggart priced very high for 2 and 3bed, still sold mostly. I think that because of the current shrinking renting market, rising rent prices and tens of people coming to viewings it will be harder and harder to rent and afford paying rent. Whoever can will run away from.renting and this will drive the prices in the range of 200-300k which is for 2-4 bed houses depending on the area (including commuting belt). Anyone thinking the same? All price falls mentioned and all evidence was for houses in 400-600k range. Anyone witnessed price fall on houses pricrd below 300k?

Prices are falling in that range as well....30-40k in few i am following closely....

Amidoman

tharmor wrote: »

Prices are falling in that range as well....30-40k in few i am following closely....

Any details? Are they good quality homes? Or just another unrealistic dreams? Because that was whatnI mentioned in the 400-600k range. I followed hundreds of houses and looked at tens of them. Like I said I took part in a bidding war and decided to buy a new house. All new house prices go up no doubt. At least in Dublin and commuter belt. Been to every viewing (houses we could afford) and houses were sold from plans in minutes (reasonably priced). All old houses we looked at were sold for 10-40k above asking price. One EA asks a lot less to gain more interest and start bidding wars. House sold by him in Laytown was mentioned a few pages earlier. He does it every time. Are we talking about aeking prices or prices houses are sold for? One example from the same EA - house in Bettystown asking price 265k no one interested. He removes it, puts it back on, no house number this time at 240k and a bidding war starts. It is sale agreed at 250k now.
He started a bidding war we took part in. House put on at 240 sold for 265k. Again Bettystown. I resigned as even though we could afford to bid further I thought it was far too much.
There are many like him and it is not just us "sheep" pumping the prices. It is the estate agents trying to squeez as much as possible.
Anyway we decided to buy and even though it is not our dream house it is much better than many other we looked at.

Beta Canis Majoris

Amidoman wrote: »

Any details? Are they good quality homes? Or just another unrealistic dreams? Because that was whatnI mentioned in the 400-600k range. I followed hundreds of houses and looked at tens of them. Like I said I took part in a bidding war and decided to buy a new house. All new house prices go up no doubt. At least in Dublin and commuter belt. Been to every viewing (houses we could afford) and houses were sold from plans in minutes (reasonably priced). All old houses we looked at were sold for 10-40k above asking price. One EA asks a lot less to gain more interest and start bidding wars. House sold by him in Laytown was mentioned a few pages earlier. He does it every time. Are we talking about aeking prices or prices houses are sold for? One example from the same EA - house in Bettystown asking price 265k no one interested. He removes it, puts it back on, no house number this time at 240k and a bidding war starts. It is sale agreed at 250k now.
He started a bidding war we took part in. House put on at 240 sold for 265k. Again Bettystown. I resigned as even though we could afford to bid further I thought it was far too much.
There are many like him and it is not just us "sheep" pumping the prices. It is the estate agents trying to squeez as much as possible.
Anyway we decided to buy and even though it is not our dream house it is much better than many other we looked at.

Best of luck in your new place. The way I look at it house prices in Ireland are constantly changing, either up or down. Whether they go up or down after buying doesn't really matter so long as you're happy with the house and can afford the mortgage payments. When I buy in Ireland (eventually), I think I'll be a lot more concerned what way interest rates will go, rather than house prices.

wilford

I'd love to know where I'm going wrong,I've a house on the market since march,cheapest 3 bed in the area not falling to pieces the usual mod cons I'd move back into it in a heartbeat the OH says no,1 offer 10k less than asking which fell through after the EA called to accept it,the market in the area is mental looking at the ppr 1 2 bed has gone for what I'm asking,I would'nt let the dog sleep in it needs 30k 600 mts away from mine,2 other 3 beds have gone for 20k more than what I'm looking for I'm starting to think I should add 50 k to get people interested.

Amidoman

wilford wrote: »

I'd love to know where I'm going wrong,I've a house on the market since march,cheapest 3 bed in the area not falling to pieces the usual mod cons I'd move back into it in a heartbeat the OH says no,1 offer 10k less than asking which fell through after the EA called to accept it,the market in the area is mental looking at the ppr 1 2 bed has gone for what I'm asking,I would'nt let the dog sleep in it needs 30k 600 mts away from mine,2 other 3 beds have gone for 20k more than what I'm looking for I'm starting to think I should add 50 k to get people interested.

Where are you selling? Could you send me a pm with a link? Just curious and who knows...

Idioteque

wilford wrote: »

I'd love to know where I'm going wrong,I've a house on the market since march,cheapest 3 bed in the area not falling to pieces the usual mod cons I'd move back into it in a heartbeat the OH says no,1 offer 10k less than asking which fell through after the EA called to accept it,the market in the area is mental looking at the ppr 1 2 bed has gone for what I'm asking,I would'nt let the dog sleep in it needs 30k 600 mts away from mine,2 other 3 beds have gone for 20k more than what I'm looking for I'm starting to think I should add 50 k to get people interested.

Have many people viewed it? Surely the EA is following up with them to see if they want to place a bid and if not, asking why not...feedback that'd be pretty useful to you.

wilford

I'm starting to think the Ea is not the best alright although he came recommened.

starbaby2003

wilford wrote: »

I'm starting to think the Ea is not the best alright although he came recommened.

If you are getting people into view could you get a trusted friend to listen to what people are saying ?
Are the colours in your house bold. It's very hard to imagine how you would live in a house if the colours are too overwhelming.
What is the orientation? If it's north or East make sure viewings are early morning.
A warm ambience ( lighting fire in winter etc ) can give people that homely look they are searching for making it easier to imagine themselves there.
This is just my thoughts. I'm not an EA or anything. It's just observations from all the houses we have viewed over the last two years !

Piriz

Wilford send me a link to your house and i'll try to tell you what may be wrong or unappealing

Rew

Amidoman wrote: »

I am renting right now but decided to buy and contracts are signed. Buying in Bettystown a new house 3 bed for originally 225k. I followed this thread for months trying to make my mind up regarding the trend. I see most people posting about prices falling but they are all for the houses in 400-600k range actually. I cannot afford it and many people renting right now would not unless they have a good deposit saved.
Why is no one posting about prices of houses in 200-300k range? There are no falls. There are rather increases and I have observed daft and myhome for months checking nearly everyday. Been to far too many viewings. Tokk part in bidding war and this is why decided to go for a new house with a huge garden even if it is outside Dublin.
Now the question is - am I going to loose? Will the prices in this range fall too? It seems like the unrealisitc prices fall significantly and all new houses in new developments are priced.more every time. Is there no.kne who wants to buy for under 300k? Only rich people here?
There are a few wrongly priced estates like castlemanor in clonee/clonsilla. Agents keep in touch trying to sell.as not much interest. Saggart priced very high for 2 and 3bed, still sold mostly.
I think that because of the current shrinking renting market, rising rent prices and tens of people coming to viewings it will be harder and harder to rent and afford paying rent. Whoever can will run away from.renting and this will drive the prices in the range of 200-300k which is for 2-4 bed houses depending on the area (including commuting belt).
Anyone thinking the same? All price falls mentioned and all evidence was for houses in 400-600k range. Anyone witnessed price fall on houses pricrd below 300k?

Yes plenty going on in the sub 300k. Former rental properties are coming on the market. Where a few months ago there was 1 or 2 options there are now 10's of houses to choose from. The ones that have been on for a couple of months are dropping a few thousand here and there. There are bigger drops in the higher end of the market obviously.

handlemaster

Rew wrote: »

Yes plenty going on in the sub 300k. Former rental properties are coming on the market. Where a few months ago there was 1 or 2 options there are now 10's of houses to choose from. The ones that have been on for a couple of months are dropping a few thousand here and there. There are bigger drops in the higher end of the market obviously.

do you have any links to these houses that are dropping ?

GoodBridge

handlemaster wrote: »

do you have any links to these houses that are dropping ?

http://www.collapso.net/Sale-Property/price-changes.php?county=&region=donabate

leinsterdude

not great areas though...

GoodBridge

It might be a bit too far north for some but there's nothing wrong with Donabate as an area.

Where would you consider a great area?

If you search for it on that site (collapso.net), and the area is in any way big enough for there to be a decent sample size, I'd say there's a good chance you'll see far more drops than increases.

Rew

leinsterdude wrote: »

not great areas though...

http://www.collapso.net/Sale-Property/Price-Changes.php?county=dublin&region=blackrock

I've been watching Celbridge - 10 price drops in a fortnight and it's not a very big market.

Leinsterdude will be glad to hear that the drops are not quite as frequent (yet) in Naas which is bigger than where I'm looking.

I think it's spreading outwards from Dublin. First to recover, first to 'stabilise'. For example, Raheny, Rathfarnham and Lucan.

gosplan

Was looking through a predictions thread from Jan on another website and it's inpressive how in among the 'crazy rise beause that's the story being pushed', there were quite a few really smart posters who said 'level off and 5-10% drop in latter half of the year'.

Fair play.

With the restrictions in place and the drops happening already it's very hard to see anything else happening this year.

Guess the only question is about next year.

My own guess is that prices will stabilise, buyers will start drip dripping into the market with the deposits they're currently saving hard for, and god forbid we might actually see a stable property market where people buy and sell because it's the right time for them, rather than out of some mass panic.

NinjaTruncs

gosplan wrote: »

Was looking through a predictions thread from Jan on another website and it's inpressive how in among the 'crazy rise beause that's the story being pushed', there were quite a few really smart posters who said 'level off and 5-10% drop in latter half of the year'.

Fair play.

With the restrictions in place and the drops happening already it's very hard to see anything else happening this year.

Guess the only question is about next year.

My own guess is that prices will stabilise, buyers will start drip dripping into the market with the deposits they're currently saving hard for, and god forbid we might actually see a stable property market where people buy and sell because it's the right time for them, rather than out of some mass panic.

That problem with the price drops we are seeing ( in SCD anyway) is that in many cases the drops are asking prices being brought back down to that of sale prices from last year. Well need to see price drop again to see an actual drop in sale prices. Look at places like Belmont they have put their prices up from last year and they aren't having issues selling.

The_Conductor

I reckon we'll see a lot more people dropping from the 250 levels- eventually to just under 199- aka to the lower property tax band (particularly given the revaluations for property tax next year).

Falls do seem to be radiating outwards from Dublin- I wonder how low we'll go......?

In related news- major investors unveiled as holding increased 'short' positions in Irish Banks- esp. Bank of Ireland.......

Deleted User wrote: »

I've been watching Celbridge - 10 price drops in a fortnight and it's not a very big market.

Leinsterdude will be glad to hear that the drops are not quite as frequent (yet) in Naas which is bigger than where I'm looking.

I think it's spreading outwards from Dublin. First to recover, first to 'stabilise'. For example, Raheny, Rathfarnham and Lucan.

handlemaster

The_Conductor wrote: »

I reckon we'll see a lot more people dropping from the 250 levels- eventually to just under 199- aka to the lower property tax band (particularly given the revaluations for property tax next year).

Falls do seem to be radiating outwards from Dublin- I wonder how low we'll go......?

In related news- major investors unveiled as holding increased 'short' positions in Irish Banks- esp. Bank of Ireland.......

Its good you mention the bank as also there are lots of fac tors at play within the market. If FG get back in next year I think this will drive the prices up people like certainty no matter what party is in power

Barely Hedged

gosplan wrote: »

Was looking through a predictions thread from Jan on another website and it's inpressive how in among the 'crazy rise beause that's the story being pushed', there were quite a few really smart posters who said 'level off and 5-10% drop in latter half of the year'.

Fair play.

With the restrictions in place and the drops happening already it's very hard to see anything else happening this year.

Guess the only question is about next year.

My own guess is that prices will stabilise, buyers will start drip dripping into the market with the deposits they're currently saving hard for, and god forbid we might actually see a stable property market where people buy and sell because it's the right time for them, rather than out of some mass panic.

Hold your horses until 11am tomorrow. CSO monthly figures for selling prices are out.

Drops in asking prices are just that - an asking price. In a growing market with apparent shortages, sellers add previous sellng price + x% to their asking price. This x% has been found wanting and its been reduced in part. That doesn't imply falling selling prices.

Also, estate agents rarely ever update ads with price increases. Its a bit naieve to think otherwise

Barely Hedged

The_Conductor wrote: »

In related news- major investors unveiled as holding increased 'short' positions in Irish Banks- esp. Bank of Ireland.......

Or phrase it another way - hedge fund makes cheap, unlikely bet against a share price. Not a pension fund pulls entire equity share holding out of BOI

Greyian

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Hold your horses until 11am tomorrow. CSO monthly figures for selling prices are out.

Drops in asking prices are just that - an asking price. In a growing market with apparent shortages, sellers add previous sellng price + x% to their asking price. This x% has been found wanting and its been reduced in part. That doesn't imply falling selling prices.

Also, estate agents rarely ever update ads with price increases. Its a bit naieve to think otherwise

In the second half of last year, a total of 26,672 properties were sold nationwide, with a total value of €6,130,932,326.11. This gives an average sale price of €229,863.99.
In the first five months of this year, a total of 16,499 properties have been sold nationwide, with a total value of €3,542,071,647.15. This gives an average sale price of €214,684.02.
This represents a drop of 6.6%.

A lot of people here are talking about the Dublin property market though, so here are some figures for Dublin:
In the second half of last year, a total of 8,841 properties were sold in Dublin, with a total value of €3,412,885,232.45. This gives an average sale price of €386,029.32.
In the first five months of this year, a total of 5,498 properties have been sold in Dublin, with a total value of €1,830,174,222.93. This gives an average sale price of €332,880.00.
This represents a drop of 13.77%.

Barely Hedged

Greyian wrote: »

In the second half of last year, a total of 26,672 properties were sold nationwide, with a total value of €6,130,932,326.11. This gives an average sale price of €229,863.99.
In the first five months of this year, a total of 16,499 properties have been sold nationwide, with a total value of €3,542,071,647.15. This gives an average sale price of €214,684.02.
This represents a drop of 6.6%.

A lot of people here are talking about the Dublin property market though, so here are some figures for Dublin:
In the second half of last year, a total of 8,841 properties were sold in Dublin, with a total value of €3,412,885,232.45. This gives an average sale price of €386,029.32.
In the first five months of this year, a total of 5,498 properties have been sold in Dublin, with a total value of €1,830,174,222.93. This gives an average sale price of €332,880.00.
This represents a drop of 13.77%.

Decline in Dublin prices between Dec to Apr was around -0.5%.

Taking your interpretation you're expecting, roughly speaking, CSO May numbers for Dublin to show a drop of over 13%?