Property Market 2015

The_Conductor

Moderator note:

Guys- please try to be civil towards one another.
Its actually not difficult- and it helps with the flow of conversation.

Less of the argy bargy- we've given this thread a lot more leeway than we normally do- if you abuse that leeway- there will be consequences.

Rew

The Indo getting in on the action this morning (admittedly not high on the journalistic quality scale):

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/housing-market-starting-to-cool-as-capital-prices-drop-31353656.html

The_Conductor

Rew wrote: »

The Indo getting in on the action this morning (admittedly not high on the journalistic quality scale):

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/housing-market-starting-to-cool-as-capital-prices-drop-31353656.html

That has to be one of weakest, most mealy mouthed piece of reporting I've had the misfortune to read in a while.

If he had copied and pasted from any of a large number of posts on this thread (aside from loosing what little journalistic integrity he may have)- he'd have a clearer- less ambiguous article. As for the comments about the markets in Lucan and Tallaght being robust- I actually snorted a mouthful of coffee....... Errr- no,they're not. Had that estate agent spoken with his own agents in both areas- they'd have painted a very different story. The norm is now for sales to fall through altogether in both areas- as buyers discover their borrowing capacity is less than they had imagined.

I guess its an opening shot- so they can point to an article in 6 months or a years time- and say- yes- we noticed a change in the market and didn't keep playing our drum- we saw what was happening. If so- it serves its purpose- just about.

Rew

Presume they will publish the report with the methodology later today might make better reading.

We're looking in Lucan ATM and they're not far off the mark on the price that we have seen but we're seeing people run houses that are nicely decorated up to €250, silly stuff. Presence at viewings has been strong 4-6 groups at any we have been at. Clever sellers biting quickly on good offers and one of note holding out for 5k more on a 250k offer because they had it previously sale agreed higher but it had fallen though...

gaius c

The_Conductor wrote: »

That has to be one of weakest, most mealy mouthed piece of reporting I've had the misfortune to read in a while.

If he had copied and pasted from any of a large number of posts on this thread (aside from loosing what little journalistic integrity he may have)- he'd have a clearer- less ambiguous article. As for the comments about the markets in Lucan and Tallaght being robust- I actually snorted a mouthful of coffee....... Errr- no,they're not. Had that estate agent spoken with his own agents in both areas- they'd have painted a very different story. The norm is now for sales to fall through altogether in both areas- as buyers discover their borrowing capacity is less than they had imagined.

I guess its an opening shot- so they can point to an article in 6 months or a years time- and say- yes- we noticed a change in the market and didn't keep playing our drum- we saw what was happening. If so- it serves its purpose- just about.

Obviously, you know Lucan better than I do but there is a grain of truth to what they are saying about Tallaght. Well-priced houses are still selling but even going 10k too high sees tumbleweed at viewings. It's the top and middle of the market that's wilting so folk with a 350k budget could well be inclined to see if a Knocklyon house comes within their range instead of settling for a Firhouse property now. The likes of the €1m+ houses in Rathfarnham, etc are going to be sitting there a long time unless their vendors accept the new reality.

Rew

gaius c wrote: »

The likes of the €1m+ houses in Rathfarnham, etc are going to be sitting there a long time unless their vendors accept the new reality.

Speaking of which Iv'e been watching this out of curiosity for months, during which went sale agreed and fell though:

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/dun-chuilinn-cruagh-road-rathfarnham/3072660

gaius c

Rew wrote: »

Speaking of which Iv'e been watching this out of curiosity for months, during which went sale agreed and fell though:

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/dun-chuilinn-cruagh-road-rathfarnham/3072660

In fairness, that is somewhat unique and there may be a buyer willing to pay for that (or not as the case may be). My post was more aimed at the more "bog-standard" houses that have ridonculous asking prices because the address is nice, despite the house needing serious modernisation, etc.

Malahide appears to have a bit of an overload on million plus houses as well.

Floodzie

Rew wrote: »

The Indo getting in on the action this morning (admittedly not high on the journalistic quality scale):

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/housing-market-starting-to-cool-as-capital-prices-drop-31353656.html

Things must really be turning if the Indo (purveyors of the glossy property supplement) are calling a 'cooling'.

What next - TheJournal/Daft.ie, or even the IrishTimes/MyHome ?

gaius c

Floodzie wrote: »

Things must really be turning if the Indo (purveyors of the glossy property supplement) are calling a 'cooling'.

What next - TheJournal/Daft.ie, or even the IrishTimes/MyHome ?

It's more "come on in, the water is lovely" sort of pimping really. There's a little bit of "oh you'll need such a huge deposit" and then a mention of increasing rents. Allied to "property in Louth is taking off", it's basically a "buy now while you still can" propaganda piece.

As for this stat:

The amount of cash purchasers in the national market has fallen from 50pc to 40pc nationally in the past three months.

I'll believe it when I see it independently verified elsewhere because they tried to claim it before and it was shown to be untrue.

The_Conductor

Any of the property viewing I've been at (1-2 a week in the 180-250k range- for the past 6 months all over west Dublin- I have a homeless family member who intends to make a cash purchase)- the people making offers- are predominantly cash buyers- and a large proportion are retired couples who sold some time ago- and are now buying replacement properties (one couple in their 60s have spent the last year on the Silver Coast in Portugal- and attended all open viewings at one property- inferring to other viewers that they'd blow any offer anyone else made out of the water- who knows, maybe they might, maybe they might not- they got the property as the sole bidder).

Tumbleweed- is increasingly the order of the day- alongside sales falling through- sometimes multiple times. There is something wrong when you actually start to feel sorry for some sellers- who you know have had 3 or 4 sales fall through on particular properties.

The other interesting thing of note in the Lucan area- is executor valuations given by many of the local estate agents- subsequently having to be revised significantly downwards to even get people to viewings. These type sellers also seem to be highly resilient to suggestions to drop prices.

Delinquent management companies- who have made charging the minimum possible to owners their motto- are also biting many sellers in the arse. Who wants to see boarded up lifts, flooded basements, broken fire doors etc etc..... These feature in 3 apartment complexes around Lucan with property currently on the market......

The media are suggesting that the Central Bank rules are the predominant factor in prices falling- I'd suggest that this isn't the case. People aren't going to viewings- not even tyre kickers- the imperative to buy seems to have gone- many people aren't even bothering anymore.

Beta Canis Majoris

Anyone think the proposed "giveaway" 2016 budget will affect property prices much?

gaius c

The_Conductor wrote: »

Any of the property viewing I've been at (1-2 a week in the 180-250k range- for the past 6 months all over west Dublin- I have a homeless family member who intends to make a cash purchase)- the people making offers- are predominantly cash buyers- and a large proportion are retired couples who sold some time ago- and are now buying replacement properties (one couple in their 60s have spent the last year on the Silver Coast in Portugal- and attended all open viewings at one property- inferring to other viewers that they'd blow any offer anyone else made out of the water- who knows, maybe they might, maybe they might not- they got the property as the sole bidder).

Tumbleweed- is increasingly the order of the day- alongside sales falling through- sometimes multiple times. There is something wrong when you actually start to feel sorry for some sellers- who you know have had 3 or 4 sales fall through on particular properties.

The other interesting thing of note in the Lucan area- is executor valuations given by many of the local estate agents- subsequently having to be revised significantly downwards to even get people to viewings. These type sellers also seem to be highly resilient to suggestions to drop prices.

Delinquent management companies- who have made charging the minimum possible to owners their motto- are also biting many sellers in the arse. Who wants to see boarded up lifts, flooded basements, broken fire doors etc etc..... These feature in 3 apartment complexes around Lucan with property currently on the market......

The media are suggesting that the Central Bank rules are the predominant factor in prices falling- I'd suggest that this isn't the case. People aren't going to viewings- not even tyre kickers- the imperative to buy seems to have gone- many people aren't even bothering anymore.

The trouble with executor sales is that the proceeds are generally being split and there's always somebody who needs more cash quite badly and can veto an offer the others are happy with. In the past, they used to be relatively trouble-free sales (once probate has gone through) but in these days of debt arrears, sellers are under more pressure to clear debts and will risk sales to get every cent possible.

gaius c

Beta Canis Majoris wrote: »

Anyone think the proposed "giveaway" 2016 budget will affect property prices much?

What are the proposed giveaways?

The_Conductor

Beta Canis Majoris wrote: »

Anyone think the proposed "giveaway" 2016 budget will affect property prices much?

Depends on what you mean by 'giveaway'.......
The rumours I've heard don't exactly enrich anyone to the extent that they'd have enough additional net pay for an extra packet of cigarettes a week- or a bottle of wine- the rumours are welcome- but nothing ground breaking........

McGrath5

Rew wrote: »

Speaking of which Iv'e been watching this out of curiosity for months, during which went sale agreed and fell though:

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/dun-chuilinn-cruagh-road-rathfarnham/3072660

I used to live around that area, its very much a niche market for the seller.

I kind of feel sorry for that guy, he bought that house at the end of 2005 and it was in bits back then, he has spent an absolute fortune refurbishing it to that standard.

handlemaster

The_Conductor wrote: »

Any of the property viewing I've been at (1-2 a week in the 180-250k range- for the past 6 months all over west Dublin- I have a homeless family member who intends to make a cash purchase)- the people making offers- are predominantly cash buyers- and a large proportion are retired couples who sold some time ago- and are now buying replacement properties (one couple in their 60s have spent the last year on the Silver Coast in Portugal- and attended all open viewings at one property- inferring to other viewers that they'd blow any offer anyone else made out of the water- who knows, maybe they might, maybe they might not- they got the property as the sole bidder).

Tumbleweed- is increasingly the order of the day- alongside sales falling through- sometimes multiple times. There is something wrong when you actually start to feel sorry for some sellers- who you know have had 3 or 4 sales fall through on particular properties.

The other interesting thing of note in the Lucan area- is executor valuations given by many of the local estate agents- subsequently having to be revised significantly downwards to even get people to viewings. These type sellers also seem to be highly resilient to suggestions to drop prices.

Delinquent management companies- who have made charging the minimum possible to owners their motto- are also biting many sellers in the arse. Who wants to see boarded up lifts, flooded basements, broken fire doors etc etc..... These feature in 3 apartment complexes around Lucan with property currently on the market......

The media are suggesting that the Central Bank rules are the predominant factor in prices falling- I'd suggest that this isn't the case. People aren't going to viewings- not even tyre kickers- the imperative to buy seems to have gone- many people aren't even bothering anymore.

Where were you viewing houses at 180k in West Dublin ? I Cant imaginé you seen to many at that level

The_Conductor

handlemaster wrote: »

Where were you viewing houses at 180k in West Dublin ? I Cant imaginé you seen to many at that level

Townhouses and apartments at that level. There are at least 10 on main street Lucan at that level- including at least 5 in the two developments on the bridge (The Village Weir and the Old Rectory) and another 2 in the Orchard- thats without even looking very far........

Plenty of stuff has been reduced to just under the tax change threshold.

handlemaster

The_Conductor wrote: »

Townhouses and apartments at that level. There are at least 10 on main street Lucan at that level- including at least 5 in the two developments on the bridge (The Village Weir and the Old Rectory) and another 2 in the Orchard- thats without even looking very far........

Plenty of stuff has been reduced to just under the tax change threshold.

A ok. I had it in my mind three bed semî s . But on looking you can still get some in dublin 15 at that asking

The_Conductor

handlemaster wrote: »

A ok. I had it in my mind three bed semî s . But on looking you can still get some in dublin 15 at that asking

McDonald Brothers (a bit of a misnomer- seeing as its run by a brother and sister- Barry and Emma) have a few 3 bed semis in Lucan- that they are actively bringing offers to sellers at below these figures........

Its a changed scene........

handlemaster

The_Conductor wrote: »

McDonald Brothers (a bit of a misnomer- seeing as its run by a brother and sister- Barry and Emma) have a few 3 bed semis in Lucan- that they are actively bringing offers to sellers at below these figures........

Its a changed scene........

Interesting..

saggart26

Was reading about the latest movement in house prices on the Journal.
http://www.thejournal.ie/house-prices-ireland-7-2200447-Jul2015/

I can understand the double digit growth in the commuter counties outside Dublin due to the new mortgage restrictions.

I would have thought that it would also have applied in certain areas in Dublin as well.
If for example, you were looking to buy in Ranelagh for 400K before the mortgage restriction, you would have required a 40K deposit. Now a 40K deposit is required for a property worth 310K, would people not be looking at alternative Dublin postal codes as well as considering commuter counties.
I would expect prices are still creeping upwards for North & West Dublin.

El_Dangeroso

saggart26 wrote: »

Was reading about the latest movement in house prices on the Journal.
http://www.thejournal.ie/house-prices-ireland-7-2200447-Jul2015/

I can understand the double digit growth in the commuter counties outside Dublin due to the new mortgage restrictions.

I would have thought that it would also have applied in certain areas in Dublin as well.
If for example, you were looking to buy in Ranelagh for 400K before the mortgage restriction, you would have required a 40K deposit. Now a 40K deposit is required for a property worth 310K, would people not be looking at alternative Dublin postal codes as well as considering commuter counties.
I would expect prices are still creeping upwards for North & West Dublin.

I love the way the article refers mostly to 'prices' and omits the most important word 'asking'.

MayBea

Deleted User wrote: »

Interested in a house which is for sale by 'sealed bids'. Bit of a nightmare as I'm 99% sure the other bidder is bidding on a house around the corner. Anyone any experience of this? There seem to be no rules/regulations covering this so is it just a way to shake every last penny out of buyers?

Any progress on this, Ixelles? How did it go?
I'm hoping for a good outcome in your favour.

Thargor

McGrath5 wrote: »

I used to live around that area, its very much a niche market for the seller.

I kind of feel sorry for that guy, he bought that house at the end of 2005 and it was in bits back then, he has spent an absolute fortune refurbishing it to that standard.

Is he losing money at that price?

MayBea

MayBea wrote: »

Any progress on this, Ixelles? How did it go?
I'm hoping for a good outcome in your favour.

Well...there were three bidders in the final week and two houses in the same estate. One of the bidders verbally agreed to buy the other house which we didn't particularly want (although it was in good nick, the orientation wasn't great) but I didn't know this until after the sealed bids were.

But we 'won'! We bid around 5k above our last offer. Gulp. Really happy that we're sale agreed although it was a bit of an anti-climax because we felt the sealed bidding thing had pushed us to our absolute maximum budget.

Fingers crossed it will all go smoothly from here. Just coordinating solicitor, bank, surveyor etc. this week but I'm sure it'll be grand.

And I'm still fairly sure that prices are generally cooling on average. But averages don't mean much when any house in half-decent condition attracts a lot of interest.

Even if prices actually fall by a few percent it won't make much difference. In fact, even a 5% per annum drop would be equivalent to our rent for another year. Wish we had bought last year but them's the breaks!

Now to go shopping for couches...

El_Dangeroso

Congrats Ixelles!

handlemaster

The times are running à story today of a drop in prices

http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/homebuyers-feel-the-pinch-of-new-lending-rules-1.2277560

johnp001

handlemaster wrote: »

The times are running à story today of a drop in prices

http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/homebuyers-feel-the-pinch-of-new-lending-rules-1.2277560

This article seems to acknowledge the strange truth that the biggest driver for lower prices is, counter-intuitively, lower prices!

“It has had an impact on sentiment, and the pace of price growth has slowed quite significantly,” says Gaine, adding that in some places supply is up a little, which accounts for some of the softening in prices.
There is also the possibility that prices will soften further however, as homebuyers find they are unable to afford what they might have done last year. The cumulative effect of this will push prices down again.

Herd mentality that drove Dublin prices up 40% on the back of the mildest of economic recoveries will drive it straight back down again.
There will be a stalemate period before the tumble occurs but this will be far shorter than in the last crash because vendors will have access to the PPR to see the prices equivalent properties are selling for.

brownbeard

johnp001 wrote: »

this will be far shorter than in the last crash because vendors will have access to the PPR

Anyone else notice that PPR didn't update yesterday?

It's been running like clockwork for the past while, being released just after 14:00 every Wednesday.

I hope this isn't the start of a slip back into really irregular updates.

The_Conductor

brownbeard wrote: »

Anyone else notice that PPR didn't update yesterday?

It's been running like clockwork for the past while, being released just after 14:00 every Wednesday.

I hope this isn't the start of a slip back into really irregular updates.

Its more likely than not that they're just short staffed with people taking leave- I wouldn't read anything into it.