Property Market 2015

gaius c

brownbeard wrote: »

Anyone else notice that PPR didn't update yesterday?

It's been running like clockwork for the past while, being released just after 14:00 every Wednesday.

I hope this isn't the start of a slip back into really irregular updates.

Yeah, I update my sheets every week and this is the first time in ages it hasn't been ready on time.
Hopefully just hols.

brownbeard

gaius c wrote: »

Yeah, I update my sheets every week

Me too!

Archaeoliz

Today's Irish Times "Homebuyers feel the pinch of new lending rules "

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/homebuyers-feel-the-pinch-of-new-lending-rules-1.2277560

Reading the article it sounds like, "we don't really know what's going on yet so we'll have to wait and see what happens in August/September".

I don't think any market likes uncertainty and the Greek situation, plus China, plus CB rules makes an interestingly uncertain cocktail. We've sold and are trying to buy so our bias would be that we'd like prices to drop but we want to get out of rental accommodation so, simply we have to take the market as it is. However, talking to neighbours who might be thinking of selling they are holding out for further market rises as they have bought into report that the market has risen 15% over the last year. They have Tiger prices in mind, so nothing is coming onto the market while they wait or it's coming on (IMHO) overpriced with a view for bids over-asking.

So we wait too...and just keep adding to those savings.

Floodzie

Archaeoliz wrote: »

the Greek situation, plus China,

I was talking to a friend in the hedge fund business who seems to think China is 'The Big One', and that once it unfolds we'll all look back with fondness on the little blip that was the Greek issue.

But then he also said that, in finance, nobody knows anything, otherwise they'd all be rich (and hence the need for hedging).

The_Conductor

Floodzie wrote: »

I was talking to a friend in the hedge fund business who seems to think China is 'The Big One', and that once it unfolds we'll all look back with fondness on the little blip that was the Greek issue.

But then he also said that, in finance, nobody knows anything, otherwise they'd all be rich (and hence the need for hedging).

Ditto- their (China's) major stock indices are down almost 35% over the last 2 weeks- and over half of all companies have voluntarily halted trading in their shares to try to help stabilise the situation. Greece is a sideshow in comparison.

Michael D Not Higgins

The_Conductor wrote: »

Ditto- their (China's) major stock indices are down almost 35% over the last 2 weeks- and over half of all companies have voluntarily halted trading in their shares to try to help stabilise the situation. Greece is a sideshow in comparison.

Hasn't the Chinese government been manipulating official figures for the economy and affecting the market for years? Is this it finally catching up to them? (or perhaps I should do my own research)

zl1whqvjs75cdy

Wait for the bottom and buy everything vaguely related to the Chinese market. Money to be made there if you know what your doing. Shame the euro is so weak, you'd get killed on the exchange.

The_Conductor

Sure they have. They encouraged shareholders to buy shares in privatised state enterprises though- as a means of getting them out of the states hands (most of them were burdened with ridiculous loans etc).

In the last 12 months- share prices on the major exchanges rose by almost 120%- however, in the last 2 weeks- just under 35% was lopped off the share prices.

Unlike in Europe and US- where the vast majority of shares are held by institutions (pension funds etc)- in China, uniquely, shares are owned almost exclusively by small shareholders.

Any large scale share drops in China- has a disproportionate effect on Chinese consumers- that a commensurate share price drop in the US or Europe- would not have.

guile4582

am I delusional thinking I will be able to get a 3 bed house in Dublin 6, 6w, 12 (more kimmage side than crumlin) 14 for €350k

still just saving like mad at the moment, but looking on daft looks like I may not have a hope

Michael D Not Higgins

guile4582 wrote: »

am I delusional thinking I will be able to get a 3 bed house in Dublin 6, 6w, 12 (more kimmage side than crumlin) 14?

still just saving like mad at the moment, but looking on daft looks like I may not have a hope

That depends on your budget

Floodzie

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Shame the euro is so weak, you'd get killed on the exchange.

As an occasional stock market investor, I would never, ever buy a stock that is not in Euros. It's just an extra level of risk.

guile4582

Michael D Not Higgins wrote: »

That depends on your budget

oops forgot the most important part, updated it now

seamus

guile4582 wrote: »

am I delusional thinking I will be able to get a 3 bed house in Dublin 6, 6w, 12 (more kimmage side than crumlin) 14 for €350k

No, I don't think that's delusional, but there are always going to be more requirements than just location.

This for example, ticks all your boxes, and is in pretty good nick to boot:
http://www.daft.ie/sales/61-limekiln-road-walkinstown-dublin/1081880/

But I suspect you're going to tell me that it's too far away from Terenure, or that don't want a terraced house.

So it's hard to say if you're ever going to be able to afford what you want. In general, if you find that prices in the area you want for the house that you want tend to be just slightly out of your reach, then you need to reasses.
Remember that you're not the only person looking in that area. In the event that something popped up within your price range, everyone else will be on it in a flash and you're in a bidding war, likely to be priced out again.

So in that case, lower your expectations either in terms of house size or location. You don't necessarily have to compromise much - 500m down the road, or a 3-bed terrace versus a 3-bed semi - before the prices come down into your range.

guile4582

seamus wrote: »

No, I don't think that's delusional, but there are always going to be more requirements than just location.

This for example, ticks all your boxes, and is in pretty good nick to boot:
http://www.daft.ie/sales/61-limekiln-road-walkinstown-dublin/1081880/

But I suspect you're going to tell me that it's too far away from Terenure, or that don't want a terraced house.

So it's hard to say if you're ever going to be able to afford what you want. In general, if you find that prices in the area you want for the house that you want tend to be just slightly out of your reach, then you need to reasses.
Remember that you're not the only person looking in that area. In the event that something popped up within your price range, everyone else will be on it in a flash and you're in a bidding war, likely to be priced out again.

So in that case, lower your expectations either in terms of house size or location. You don't necessarily have to compromise much - 500m down the road, or a 3-bed terrace versus a 3-bed semi - before the prices come down into your range.

cheers, i will compromise on likes of terrace house and even location. I want to be within a 30 min cycle of town basically and ideal area would be Churchtown/Dundrum direction, purely based on when needing public transport, the bus routes in the 6w/12 area are not well served by lanes.

I need to look into schools also, as not from Dublin and would prefer future sprogs live in the community their school is in.


and a garden...defo need a garden!

Floodzie

guile4582 wrote: »

am I delusional thinking I will be able to get a 3 bed house in Dublin 6, 6w, 12 (more kimmage side than crumlin) 14 for €350k

I would look in Dublin 8 for that money, some good value to be had.

gaius c

guile4582 wrote: »

cheers, i will compromise on likes of terrace house and even location. I want to be within a 30 min cycle of town basically and ideal area would be Churchtown/Dundrum direction, purely based on when needing public transport, the bus routes in the 6w/12 area are not well served by lanes.

I need to look into schools also, as not from Dublin and would prefer future sprogs live in the community their school is in.


and a garden...defo need a garden!

What about D8?

guile4582

Yeah I wouldn't discount it, but wouldn't know enough about it. I would include it into the mix I suppose.

mariaalice

guile4582 wrote: »

cheers, i will compromise on likes of terrace house and even location. I want to be within a 30 min cycle of town basically and ideal area would be Churchtown/Dundrum direction, purely based on when needing public transport, the bus routes in the 6w/12 area are not well served by lanes.

I need to look into schools also, as not from Dublin and would prefer future sprogs live in the community their school is in.


and a garden...defo need a garden!

You should be able to get some where like Scholarstown Park, I know they are asking more but with the market correcting a bit you should get something, you could cycle in to town from there in half an hour depending on what part of town you want to get to. As for schools you have Santa Maria College, Coláiste Éanna CBS etc which are excellent school.

guile4582

thanks guys, I reckon I am a year away from going for it, but was getting slightly worried where I would end up.
Given that we plan to raise nearly 1/3 of the value, and the bank would give a mortgage for a more expensive house, I was beginning to get despondent that a couple on very decent wages couldn't get a house within their needs

dearg lady

So I'm nearing ever closer to my target deposit, and still trying to second guess the property market so following this thread very closely!!
I have a question that is probably silly, and slightly off topic, but it didn't really warrant a thread to itself.
Let's say I have 20k saved and apply for a mortgage, get approved in principal for 80k, giving me a budget of 100k. I'm still saving away as I'm searching. I find a place I like, and bidding goes up to 110k. By this time I have the 22k saved for deposit. Would it be reasonable to bid the 110k, assuming the bank would approve me for the higher amount when I actually go to draw down the mortgage? Or would that be stupid?
(Assuming I meet the LTI ratios and have money for other costs)

The_Conductor

Providing you met all the ratios- I don't see why not- but if you're extending yourself to the very max of your borrowing potential- its dangerous territory. I viewed a property yesterday thats located in a nice development- its been vacant since last November- and has gone sale agreed 5 times- on each occasion- the sale has fallen through because the prospective purchaser failed to get the mortgage approval they assumed they'd get.

If you have any doubts at all- contact your mortgage advisor- its better to be safe than sorry- lenders are not bending the rules- other than for the safest of borrowers (and apparently 'safe borrowers' may not be who you'd imagine them to be- if you're public sector- you're unlikely to qualify for a relaxation, if you work in retail (any position at all)- you're not likely to qualify, if you're in manufacturing or logistics- forget it. Service industries- esp. accountants, IT professionals etc- are the only people getting exceptional treatment.

Your not talking massive sums- but at the same time- if you're cutting this close to the wind- contact your advisor for guidance.

guile4582

The_Conductor wrote: »

if you work in retail (any position at all)- you're not likely to qualify, if you're in manufacturing or logistics- forget it. Service industries- esp. accountants, IT professionals etc- are the only people getting exceptional treatment.

Your not talking massive sums- but at the same time- if you're cutting this close to the wind- contact your advisor for guidance.

what kind of treatment can a public servant expect?

johnp001

The_Conductor wrote: »

Providing you met all the ratios- I don't see why not- but if you're extending yourself to the very max of your borrowing potential- its dangerous territory. I viewed a property yesterday thats located in a nice development- its been vacant since last November- and has gone sale agreed 5 times- on each occasion- the sale has fallen through because the prospective purchaser failed to get the mortgage approval they assumed they'd get.

...

Have heard anecdotally that estate agents prefer to use "couldn't get finance" as a reason to explain sales falling through when the real reason is a bad survey. Falling through 5 times would seem to be excessively unlucky unless the seller is trying to pass off a house with a major structural flaw.
Or maybe this is the new macro-prudential reality post CB rules?

Some agents (not all) insist on seeing proof of funds before passing on bids. If a seller saw four deals slip through their fingers for the same reasons, you'd be asking questions of your agent. To lose one deal is careless, to lose five...

Rew

The_Conductor wrote: »

other than for the safest of borrowers (and apparently 'safe borrowers' may not be who you'd imagine them to be- if you're public sector- you're unlikely to qualify for a relaxation, if you work in retail (any position at all)- you're not likely to qualify, if you're in manufacturing or logistics- forget it. Service industries- esp. accountants, IT professionals etc- are the only people getting exceptional treatment.

Coincidentally my bank just emailed me to offer an exemption that we didn't ask for, looks like the boom practices are coming back.

NinjaTruncs

I guess most banks will burn through their exemption quota fairly quickly to get market share. Could see spikes in prices early in the year and then a slight easing in the later half when they have no quota left, this year may be an exception as the rules really only start kicking in now.

gaius c

johnp001 wrote: »

Have heard anecdotally that estate agents prefer to use "couldn't get finance" as a reason to explain sales falling through when the real reason is a bad survey. Falling through 5 times would seem to be excessively unlucky unless the seller is trying to pass off a house with a major structural flaw.
Or maybe this is the new macro-prudential reality post CB rules?

Agreed. Having bailed on a deal because the survey pulled up serious issues (including asbestos), it was somewhat irritating to later hear that the EA was telling people that we had a problem with our finance. Incidentally, the property was relisted at the same asking price despite them now being fully aware of the asbestos issue and some other poor sap is going to have to spend another few hundred quid to find out what the vendor already knows.

"Finance issues" has become the new "dog ate my homework" go-to excuse for EA's not doing their job properly.

johnp001

Code of Practice for Property Services Providers (Auctioneers and Estate Agents

3.1: Information to be supplied to the Public
It is the duty of a Property Services Provider to ensure that any information supplied to
the public, either in the form of advertising or as a result of a request for information,
should
• Be factually correct and accurate,
• Not be misleading,
...

Seems to be clearly in breach of the Code of Practice under which EA operate

The_Conductor

guile4582 wrote: »

what kind of treatment can a public servant expect?

Same as any other punter who might expect steady wages, but no great increases down the road- aka- you'd qualify for the 3.5 times income, and the standard 10 or 20% deposit rate (depending on whether or not you were a first time buyer or not)- but you would not qualify for an exemption from these rules (lenders have the option of exempting up to 20% of candidates from these restrictions- however, they are focusing on certain sectors- of which bank employees, public sector employees- and others, who might be thought to be in safe employment, but with little salary upside expectations- will not apply).

dearg lady

Nice one thanks. Pretty much the lines I was thinking along, but wasn't sure if I was being completely mad! I wouldn't like to mess someone around. If/when the situation arises I'll contact the bank for advice.