Property Market 2015

handlemaster

Irelands population grew by over 8% last year.

I guess not everyone is glummy ... more housing issues to follow with rates like this



http://m.independent.ie/irish-news/news/childcare-and-housing-challenge-as-baby-boom-continues-31368622.html

The_Conductor

handlemaster wrote: »

Irelands population grew by over 8% last year.

The Indo bolloxed up their article.
Ireland's population grew by 8.1 people per 1000 head of population in 2014- this represents 14.1 births per 1000 head of population- and 6.4 deaths per 1000 head of population (the way the demographics are presented statistically- this represents a net increase in the Irish population of 8.1 people per 1000 head of population.

We have a population of 4.6 million.
We had just over 72,000 births in 2014
Our number of births has declined every single year- without exception, from its high point of just under 76,500- set in 2009 (the level of births in 2009 represented 17.1 births per 1000 head of population- versus last years 14.1 births per 1000 head of population).

The major increase in our 2014 figures- is our drop in deaths and the age profile of those who deceased during the year.

The Indo completely and utterly bolloxed up their statistical analysis- which continues to show declines in Irish births- a trend of the last 6 years- from peak levels that began to decline on an annualised basis, from Q2 2009 onwards.

slowjoe17

gaius c wrote: »

Agreed. Having bailed on a deal because the survey pulled up serious issues (including asbestos), it was somewhat irritating to later hear that the EA was telling people that we had a problem with our finance. Incidentally, the property was relisted at the same asking price despite them now being fully aware of the asbestos issue and some other poor sap is going to have to spend another few hundred quid to find out what the vendor already knows.

"Finance issues" has become the new "dog ate my homework" go-to excuse for EA's not doing their job properly.

I truly wish there was a duty on the seller/estate agent to disclose significant issues like this.

Could there be a business making available the results of surveys for say 10 euros a time (with the cash being split between the person who commisioned the survey and the site)?

Is there a legal reason stopping this?

gaius c

The_Conductor wrote: »

The Indo bolloxed up their article.
Ireland's population grew by 8.1 people per 1000 head of population in 2014- this represents 14.1 births per 1000 head of population- and 6.4 deaths per 1000 head of population (the way the demographics are presented statistically- this represents a net increase in the Irish population of 8.1 people per head of population.

We have a population of 4.6 million.
We had just over 72,000 births in 2014
Our number of births has declined every single year- without exception, from its high point of just under 76,500- set in 2009 (the level of births in 2009 represented 17.1 births per 1000 head of population- versus last years 14.1 births per 1000 head of population).

The major increase in our 2014 figures- is our drop in deaths and the age profile of those who deceased during the year.

The Indo completely and utterly bolloxed up their statistical analysis- which continues to show declines in Irish births- a trend of the last 6 years- from peak levels that began to decline on an annualised basis, from Q2 2009 onwards.

It's an appallingly prejudiced piece of "analysis" that's clearly pushing an agenda of some sort because death rate dropping just means the deaths are postponed to a later date which will make the rate on that date higher.

And if population growth made you a "powerhouse", Sub-Saharan Africa is looking good for the future!

brownbeard

handlemaster wrote: »

Irelands population grew by over 8% last year.

Figures for the birth rate do not equal total population change.

From CSO;
http://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2014/#.VaEhM_np9jc

Factoring in net migration brings the overall increase to 16500 or 0.36% in the year to April 2014.

Stats for year to April 2015 should be released next month.

Bob24

slowjoe17 wrote: »

I truly wish there was a duty on the seller/estate agent to disclose significant issues like this.

Could there be a business making available the results of surveys for say 10 euros a time (with the cash being split between the person who commisioned the survey and the site)?

Is there a legal reason stopping this?

Same type of issue here. Survey showed there were serious concerns related to fire safety regulations with the apartment we were going to buy. Digging deeper, the whole block is actually under review by the Dublin fire brigade for various breaches and our solicitor's advice was to definitely no go ahead.

When I mentioned that to the agent he was not all that surprised and said fire safety certificates had been reissued,; except these are only converting part of the issues and couldn't be obtained by the seller when requested by our solicitor.

I understand the agent has no reason to disclose this stuff to new prospective buyers if he doesn't have to - but for safety related issues like this one maybe there should be some kind of legal obligation to pass the information once you are made aware of it.

fret_wimp2

EDIT: Fixed figures based on Piriz comment (next inline)


Ive been doing some quick and dirty maths on property prices, number of available properties in a price range, how much deposit & salary a person/couple would need to afford a property in a particular bracket.

Its far from comprehensive, but at a high leve, its showing that the majority of properties are in the 200-300k price range.
To afford a house in this range (taking the upper of the range) someone would need a deposit of 30k and a salary of 77k.

In my head 100k is a large salary, am i wrong with this idea?
Even with 2 people, i cant imagine that many joint salaries adding up to much more than 120-130k which would probably mean they fail a stress test.

Is this an indication ( not evidence, far from it) that prices are still far too high relative to what most people earn? I dont have any idea of salaries in Dublin (avg salary when googled is rated at anything from low 30s to high 40s depending on your source).

Category price(K)|Daft property count|deposit needed in k((loan-deposit) x 0.2)|Salary needed per year k( @ loan max= 3.5x salary)
500+|913|50+|142+
400 - 500|458|50|128
300 - 400|948|40|103
200 - 300|1447|30|77
100 - 200|848|20|60

Piriz

Central bank lending rules = 3.5 income and 10% deposit for first time buyers up to 180k, 20% on amount over 180k or 20% deposit for non first time buyers.

Your 100k income would qualify for 350k mortgage.

The_Conductor

fret_wimp2 wrote: »

Is this an indication ( not evidence, far from it) that prices are still far too high relative to what most people earn? I dont have any idea of salaries in Dublin (avg salary when googled is rated at anything from low 30s to high 40s depending on your source).

Over 50% of purchases are still cash purchases- aka the purchasers are not constrained by central bank borrowing rules. Accordingly- until such time as the percentage of cash sales falls to historical levels (typically 25-30%) prices are not necessarily out of the reach of purchasers (though a lot of purchasers are wising up to this- which is why the length of time its taking to sell a property is shooting up).

Fundamentals (average salaries etc) do not support average property prices (when you apply central bank lending criteria). It will increasingly become an issue- but for now- its not.

I Am The Law

Piriz wrote: »

Central bank lending rules = 3.5 income and 10% deposit for first time buyers up to 180k, 20% on amount over 180k or 20% deposit for non first time buyers.

Your 100k income would qualify for 350k mortgage.

With a 70k deposit? Am I correct in saying that?

fret_wimp2

The_Conductor wrote: »

Over 50% of purchases are still cash purchases- aka the purchasers are not constrained by central bank borrowing rules. Accordingly- until such time as the percentage of cash sales falls to historical levels (typically 25-30%) prices are not necessarily out of the reach of purchasers (though a lot of purchasers are wising up to this- which is why the length of time its taking to sell a property is shooting up).

Fundamentals (average salaries etc) do not support average property prices (when you apply central bank lending criteria). It will increasingly become an issue- but for now- its not.

Would it be fair to say that this bolded line is true, but only for cash buyers, and byers constrained by borrowing rules are hindered immensely by:

-having to have a large enough deposit and salary.
-having to compete with so many cash buyers who are driving the prices up.

Rackstar

Piriz wrote: »

Central bank lending rules = 3.5 income and 10% deposit for first time buyers up to 180k, 20% on amount over 180k or 20% deposit for non first time buyers.

Your 100k income would qualify for 350k mortgage.

Is it not 10% deposit up to €220k for first time buyers?

The_Conductor

fret_wimp2 wrote: »

Would it be fair to say that this bolded line is true, but only for cash buyers, and byers constrained by borrowing rules are hindered immensely by:

-having to have a large enough deposit and salary.
-having to compete with so many cash buyers who are driving the prices up.

There are still loads of buyers out there who aren't confined by the new rules (i.e. the old mortgage approvals only fully expire on the 11th August)- many many people sought approval prior to the deadline- which was highlighted well in advance.

The rules are going to be an issue- certainly- however- they're only going to really bite when the autumn market kicks off.

Piriz

The_Conductor wrote: »

There are still loads of buyers out there who aren't confined by the new rules (i.e. the old mortgage approvals only fully expire on the 11th August)- many many people sought approval prior to the deadline- which was highlighted well in advance.

The rules are going to be an issue- certainly- however- they're only going to really bite when the autumn market kicks off.

Cant wait

audi12

Piriz wrote: »

Cant wait

hope the market crashes on its head .. what do people think will happen

Piriz

i think it will drop by 10% in 12 months in Dublin, I'm not really concerned about outside Dublin..

Archaeoliz

I personally think what will happen will largely depend on what advice EA's give to vendors about selling prices and the market combined with how the mainstream media report on it. Unrealistic expectations, combined with unrealistic advice and misleading reporting creates a false impression.

Fact is, I don't know what the market's doing at the moment round here (West Wicklow), but have been reminded twice at different properties that "oh well, I was offered (enter insane price here) back in 2006" as I looked at the house which hadn't been redecorated since 1997, peeling paint on the ceiling, smashed glass ceiling lights and broken windows, or the one where I looked at the smashed floor tiles on the floor. Been on the market for seven years and you're asking HOW much? Well I know why it hasn't sold! And if you were offered that, why exactly didn't you take it? (Not uttered out loud. Maybe because I was being polite, or maybe because once I started I might not have been able to stop!)

Until vendors recognise that it actually would be insane for the country, the economy and everyone to achieve the prices of the height of the bubble and they need to let it go and stop being bare faced greedy because houses just aren't worth that sort of money anymore, then housing stock is going to stay off the market and vendors are going to refuse good offers and places will stay unsold.

*Climbs off soapbox* and I apologise for the mini-rant! But that's my opinion - for what it's worth.

OfflerCrocGod

Holding onto bad properties hoping for a big sale is a bad move. Construction PMI is strong, hopefully more new stock will start to trickle into the market. It's good that we now have a constrained property market thanks to the Central Bank. It's healthy for the economy in the long term.

audi12

OfflerCrocGod wrote: »

Holding onto bad properties hoping for a big sale is a bad move. Construction PMI is strong, hopefully more new stock will start to trickle into the market. It's good that we now have a constrained property market thanks to the Central Bank. It's healthy for the economy in the long term.

agreed hopefully prices will fall now later in the year

handlemaster

will this new post code system make a difference to prices where an area is beside one which might not be as high in price.

Floodzie

handlemaster wrote: »

will this new post code system make a difference to prices where an area is beside one which might not be as high in price.

They said that about Dublin 6W and Dublin 6, but it didn't appear to make any difference. I don't know anyone looking for somewhere based on postcode at the minute, I can't imagine the new system will have any impact.

The_Conductor

It's a property identification system, not a postcode per se. Two adjacent properties will have entirely different non related codes. So I don't forsee any impact whatsoever..........

boogaloop

What is the story with the property price register, does it not get updated during the summer months? Hasn't been updated for Galway since 26th June

gaius c

boogaloop wrote: »

What is the story with the property price register, does it not get updated during the summer months? Hasn't been updated for Galway since 26th June

Looks that way.

brownbeard

I don't think the register is updated separately, at different times, for each county. The last property on the register for anywhere in the country is currently the 26th.

seamus

boogaloop wrote: »

What is the story with the property price register, does it not get updated during the summer months? Hasn't been updated for Galway since 26th June

The guys who do it are probably on two weeks holidays.

johnp001

REGISTER LAST UPDATED
14/07/2015 12:50:30

Now updated

The_Conductor

Seriously guys- they're just short staffed over the summer months- don't read anything into the delays.

handlemaster

johnp001 wrote: »

Now updated

they must be following the thread

gaius c

The_Conductor wrote: »

Seriously guys- they're just short staffed over the summer months- don't read anything into the delays.

This was me yesterday waiting patiently for the update.