Property Market 2015

Beta Canis Majoris

House near my road (Dublin 15), went up for sale less than 2 weeks ago (Monday 6th July) for €350k (Average selling price of houses in and around that estate has been €250k- max €300k) going by PPR prices from July 2014 - June 2015. Sale agreed sign up already. When will this madness end.

handlemaster

Beta Canis Majoris wrote: »

House near my road (Dublin 15), went up for sale less than 2 weeks ago (Monday 6th July) for €350k (Average selling price of houses in and around that estate has been €250k- max €300k) going by PPR prices from July 2014 - June 2015. Sale agreed sign up already. When will this madness end.

Approx where in Dublin 15 was that. Ive seen alot of the prices creeping towards 400 k in Castleknock.

handlemaster

Does anybody think with an election next year we will have somthing in this years budget to lift the market further ? No matter how much people give out about the housing crisis the Irish still love property. There would be no better way to win votes than a preceived increase in the value of your home and the voter spends more with confidence.

DublinDilbert

handlemaster wrote: »

Approx where in Dublin 15 was that. Ive seen alot of the prices creeping towards 400 k in Castleknock.

Yea but very few of the houses in the 330-400k plus bracket are shifting. One road down off pecks lane has 4 or more houses for sale. My own estate has 6 houses for sale, most in that range (some below) and none are moving. An open viewing on one house last week had two couples at it.

handlemaster

DublinDilbert wrote: »

Yea but very few of the houses in the 330-400k plus bracket are shifting. One road down off pecks lane has 4 or more houses for sale. My own estate has 6 houses for sale, most in that range (some below) and none are moving. An open viewing on one house last week had two couples at it.

Were you at the viewing or tweeking the curtain 😅

The_Conductor

DublinDilbert wrote: »

Yea but very few of the houses in the 330-400k plus bracket are shifting. One road down off pecks lane has 4 or more houses for sale. My own estate has 6 houses for sale, most in that range (some below) and none are moving. An open viewing on one house last week had two couples at it.

Once you go over the 220k threshold- you're pretty much limited to cashbuyers- and despite the high number of cashbuyers out there- most of them are not in the 300-400 bracket- so you're sort of stuck.

The market is beginning to differentiate into different strata.
People who might have gotten 500k'ish for property a year ago- are now finding that where there might only have been one or two comparable properties on the market in their area a year ago- now there might be a dozen or more- and where they might have not had elbow room at viewings- now- there is tumbleweed........

I can't see many of these people reducing their prices to levels they will actually sell at (aka 220k or maybe 250-300k for mortgage reliant or cash buyers respectively).

The absolute quantities of properties on the market in Dublin- is rising incredibly fast- and from talking to one of the local estate agents here (in Lucan)- where normally the market would be dead at this time of the year- they are being asked to bring increasing numbers of properties to the market as quickly as possible.

Nothing much is going to happen until the autumn kicks off- estate agents are turning away significant numbers of sellers at the moment advising them to spruce up properties etc to make them more saleable- come September- there will be another cohort of sellers chasing an ever smaller number of prospective buyers.

I'm glad I'm not trying to sell property.

TheDriver

On a different note, large commuter towns in Cork are seeing few houses coming to market with sales agreeing fairly quickly. No new stock etc. Large detached now going for 280-360

The_Conductor

I'm guessing the Dublin phenomena is going to take 6-12 months to spread out to the rest of the country.

Are there developments coming on stream in Cork commuter towns? There are in the Dublin region- and evidence (sealed best bids etc) of developers beginning to panic.......

It would be nice to look at the situation in 12 months time and see what has happened.........

TheDriver

No new developments except in suburbs of city e.g. Ballincollig. There is nothing to buy with bidders for everything plus nothing to rent coupled with high rental cost e.g. 900 for 3 bed semi in country town. I have been looking for 4 years and I don't see a drop again, maybe a settling...

DublinDilbert

The_Conductor wrote: »

Once you go over the 220k threshold- you're pretty much limited to cashbuyers- and despite the high number of cashbuyers out there- most of them are not in the 300-400 bracket- so you're sort of stuck.

The market is beginning to differentiate into different strata.
People who might have gotten 500k'ish for property a year ago- are now finding that where there might only have been one or two comparable properties on the market in their area a year ago- now there might be a dozen or more- and where they might have not had elbow room at viewings- now- there is tumbleweed........

I can't see many of these people reducing their prices to levels they will actually sell at (aka 220k or maybe 250-300k for mortgage reliant or cash buyers respectively).

The absolute quantities of properties on the market in Dublin- is rising incredibly fast- and from talking to one of the local estate agents here (in Lucan)- where normally the market would be dead at this time of the year- they are being asked to bring increasing numbers of properties to the market as quickly as possible.

Nothing much is going to happen until the autumn kicks off- estate agents are turning away significant numbers of sellers at the moment advising them to spruce up properties etc to make them more saleable- come September- there will be another cohort of sellers chasing an ever smaller number of prospective buyers.

I'm glad I'm not trying to sell property.

Yea totally agree. EA's trying to spin that summer is a quiet time. Back in the day the main time for sales was from March well into the summer, many family's wanted to be settled in new place for next school year.

What I can't get over is the amount of builders I see working Saturdays? Why the rush lads? They are working on houses (3-4 beds) in royal canal park today, which is technically Dublin 15.

gosplan

The_Conductor wrote:

There are in the Dublin region- and evidence (sealed best bids etc) of developers beginning to panic......

Sorry can I ask you to explain this bit please?

Also Dinosaur Train? WTF????

slowjoe17

The_Conductor wrote: »

I'm guessing the Dublin phenomena is going to take 6-12 months to spread out to the rest of the country.

Are there developments coming on stream in Cork commuter towns? There are in the Dublin region- and evidence (sealed best bids etc) of developers beginning to panic.......

It would be nice to look at the situation in 12 months time and see what has happened.........

It might not be that simple. The effect of the central bank rules is to impose a hard cap on what people can pay. More importantly, this means that there is a discontinuity in the demand side of the market. For Dublin, that's a step-down in the demand side.

If your max payment is 200k post rule changes and you need a 3bed semi, you simply cannot look in the Dublin market, so you look outside.

That means that there is also less severe step-up in the "commuter counties". Buyers who cannot pay Dublin asking prices are buying elsewhere.

How this actually plays out is another matter - I've not heard of significant increases in house building, so there remains a housing crisis, at least in the Dublin market. But instead of that showing in the purchase market, it's showing in the rental market.

I predict insane rental price increases. For the purchase market, I'll probably understand after the fact (probably with help from folks here), but would hate to predict purchase price changes.

Turnover in Dublin is going to fall through the floor though.

gosplan

slowjoe17 wrote: »

It might not be that simple. The effect of the central bank rules is to impose a hard cap on what people can pay. More importantly, this means that there is a discontinuity in the demand side of the market. For Dublin, that's a step-down in the demand side.

If your max payment is 200k post rule changes and you need a 3bed semi, you simply cannot look in the Dublin market, so you look outside.

That means that there is also less severe step-up in the "commuter counties". Buyers who cannot pay Dublin asking prices are buying elsewhere.

How this actually plays out is another matter - I've not heard of significant increases in house building, so there remains a housing crisis, at least in the Dublin market. But instead of that showing in the purchase market, it's showing in the rental market.

I predict insane rental price increases. For the purchase market, I'll probably understand after the fact (probably with help from folks here), but would hate to predict purchase price changes.

Turnover in Dublin is going to fall through the floor though.

I think we'll see a drop in overpriced property in Dublin while lower priced property will always sell.

To give you my own position. In 2007 we were approved for 450k mortgage. I have no doubt that given out current job status, we'd be looking at a higher 100% mortgage if we wanted ... by the old rules.

People like me flew into purchases.

Now every 10k extra a house costs means I need 2k more in savings. So that's an extra month minimum to think about every tiny price hike.

Then there's also a take of properties I just can't get because of the 3.5 multiple rule.

There are way fewer buyers and those left think long and hard now about spending 400k on a house.

I think what will happen is house values will come closer together. A 3-bed semi in Clontarf is not worth twice the value if the same house in Raheny which isn't twice the Baldoyle version. The market will begin to to reflect that.

MarkAnthony

BettyBoo2011 wrote: »

<deleted post>

Upper end of the upper scale more like :pac: Average wage is about 35K a couple in very good shape would be 70K probably less if one is working part time.

BettyBoo2011 wrote: »

<deleted post>

Those prices are crazy and that development has been flagged as such a few times I thought. Then again people pay way over the odds for new builds and they are large.

BettyBoo2011 wrote: »

<deleted post>

If you can't find a nice house with a combined salary of <snip> there is something wrong. Assuming no equity you should be looking at the 600K range inc deposit which you should have had no problem saving. You'll find plenty out there for that.

BettyBoo2011 wrote: »

I<deleted post>

As the tone of my post may have conveyed - I don't really see why you think you're in a bad position. My wife and I have a lovely 100M2 house, large gardens 3 bed, 2 sitting rooms and we've a combined income around 1/3 of yours. I think you're just looking in the wrong places.

NinjaTruncs

Betty your current property is going to hinder you no matter what. The bank will take the full repayments away from your take home pay and then calculate the mortgage you can afford. If you keep it you'll need to reign in your expectations.

With my apartment the rent (after taxes) would have covered the mortgage but the bank wouldn't take the rent into account as its not guaranteed, and rightly so in my opinion. We had the choice of keeping the apartment bit not being able to buy where we wanted or sell and buy where we wanted, we chose the latter.

Sam the Sham

Back off on the insane space "requirements" and you should be able to buy a house in a week.

<MOD SNIP>

Alter_Ego

BettyBoo2011 wrote: »

<deleted post>

NinjaTruncs wrote: »

Betty your current property is going to hinder you no matter what. The bank will take the full repayments away from your take home pay and then calculate the mortgage you can afford. If you keep it you'll need to reign in your expectations.

With my apartment the rent (after taxes) would have covered the mortgage but the bank wouldn't take the rent into account as its not guaranteed, and rightly so in my opinion. We had the choice of keeping the apartment bit not being able to buy where we wanted or sell and buy where we wanted, we chose the latter.

Had a quick look and there is 6 pages on myhome.ie of properties in co. Dublin cheaper than 450k and larger than 2200 sq feet, including A-rated houses. Surely a commute from Saggart or Rathcoole wouldn't be that different than from Lucan?

athtrasna

Sam the Sham: Attack the post, not the poster

Mod

sapper

BettyBoo2011 wrote: »

<deleted post>

Hi the Rokeby thread is here http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=95691163.

Its shared thread also talking about Hawkridge in Lucan - which if you read the thread has recently found 10 buyers willing to pay 700k+, so yes it seems there are people willing and able to pay those prices in Lucan....

MarkAnthony

I'm not attacking your position Betty - fair play to you and your husband but you have to understand <snip> combined puts you squarely in the 1% bracket I'd imagine. I'm sure someone will correct me there, but regardless it's minted territory.

Realistically it's your space requirements. 2200Sq ft for three people is huge. Frankly though you can afford it. I'm a little confused as to why a site and a build is not an option on that salary. That said you're looking in a capital city where space is at a premium - would further out in Naul and alike with acres of land not suit you? I'd be in clover!

Point taken though that even with your salaries it's a struggle - I'd give it a year or so I have a feeling the arse is going to fall out the top of the market.

As for rental income, mine was taken into account with KBC - maybe worth shopping around? That said I completely agree with your sentiment of not mortgaging yourself to the hilt. But again you could get a very nice 1500Sq ft home, pay it off quickly and then move up again. Risky at the top of the market but you seem to have your head screwed on in terms of price and location.

Victor

Please don't post in a fashion that places an unnecessary burden on the moderators.

Victor

handlemaster

http://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/state-fund-to-boost-cashflow-to-big-developers-31388672.html


I really hope this "reducing" the standard to build quick isnt taken seriously

fret_wimp2

handlemaster wrote: »

http://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/state-fund-to-boost-cashflow-to-big-developers-31388672.html


I really hope this "reducing" the standard to build quick isnt taken seriously

That its being considered shows the decision makers in this process have completely lost touch with reality. The kind of people who have never stepped into one of the newer on bed apartment units of the last 10 years.
Im not sure how much more they can shave off the "quality" and have anything livable, based on places i or my friends have had the "pleasure" of renting.

Why not just go to the logical conclusion, make each unit consist of 4 walls ,an ikea billy bookcase, and 4 bunk beds & communal toilet per floor. What more do the paroles need? Just enough to keep them alive so they can work and pay tax.

Also the suggestion is that this will reduce building costs but il wager that when it comes to sell prices will still rocket unrealistically.
Should never have knocked the ballymun towers as it sounds like thats what they are aiming for.

We really are degenerating in quality of life in this country if this is the thought process for the way forward.

Bob24

handlemaster wrote: »

http://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/state-fund-to-boost-cashflow-to-big-developers-31388672.html


I really hope this "reducing" the standard to build quick isnt taken seriously

I certainly hope so as well. Better enforcement of the regulations might also be needed.

I recently had to walk away from an apartment purchase as it turned out the block is currently under review for various breaches of fire safety regulations. Recently built (2005 I believe) and not exactly cheap (fairly high demand area and supposingly high standard).

Apparently it received a fire safety certificate based on the the plans but there was never a proper inspection until last year when someone's surveyor raised concerns. The fire brigade found out the developer didn't build as per planned! (missing/inadequate ventilation units in the corridors and staircases, lack of fireproofing between the apartments and the common areas, deficient fire alarm system, you name it ...).

My surveyor and solicitor both advised to run away from it.

johnp001

slowjoe17 wrote: »

It might not be that simple. The effect of the central bank rules is to impose a hard cap on what people can pay. More importantly, this means that there is a discontinuity in the demand side of the market. For Dublin, that's a step-down in the demand side.

If your max payment is 200k post rule changes and you need a 3bed semi, you simply cannot look in the Dublin market, so you look outside.

That means that there is also less severe step-up in the "commuter counties". Buyers who cannot pay Dublin asking prices are buying elsewhere.

How this actually plays out is another matter - I've not heard of significant increases in house building, so there remains a housing crisis, at least in the Dublin market. But instead of that showing in the purchase market, it's showing in the rental market.

I predict insane rental price increases. For the purchase market, I'll probably understand after the fact (probably with help from folks here), but would hate to predict purchase price changes.

Turnover in Dublin is going to fall through the floor though.

I think you have the realities of the market correct in this post.
As buyers are able to leverage less to buy houses (mainly due to tightening of borrowing) then some buyers (those who need to buy right now) will buy in areas further out from the centre where prices are cheaper. This does not indicate that the property markets in outlying areas will increase in perpetuity. It indicates that the lending restrictions have effected change in lending practices and that buyers are no longer able or willing to pay the prices that most sellers in Dublin are demanding.
A large proportion of sellers will initially hold out for prices that they would have expected last summer but most will be disappointed. A few (those who have to sell right now) will sell for what the market will bear. This will be recorded on the PPR and the actual selling price for that type of house in that area will be set at a lower level making the holdout sellers expectations even more unrealistic.

This temporary effect leads to headlines like this regional headline from last week recounted in Indo:
Massive rise in property prices in County Louth

Selling prices in County Louth could be up on a year ago and be selling more quickly but there is zero chance that the property market in Louth (or anywhere else in the country) can escape price drops when the Dublin market is falling.

farrerg

Bob24 wrote: »

I certainly hope so as well. Better enforcement of the regulation might also be needed.

I just recently had to walk away from an apartment purchase as it turned out the block is currently under review for various breaches of fire safety regulations. Recently built (2005 I believe) and not exactly cheap (fairly high demand area and supposingly high standard).

Apparently it received a fire safety certificate based on the the plans but there was never a proper inspection until last year as someone's surveyor raised concerns; during which the fire brigade found out the developer didn't build as per planned!
My surveyor and solicitor both advised to run away from it.

Scary stuff

gaius c

handlemaster wrote: »

http://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/state-fund-to-boost-cashflow-to-big-developers-31388672.html


I really hope this "reducing" the standard to build quick isnt taken seriously

investment funds which hold land banks are "not willing to make up their mind".

Solution. Change LPT to a site value tax that will penalise speculators hoarding land banks. That'll help them make up their minds.

If builders are whining that houses are not selling for enough, what they really mean is that their margin isn't as fat as they would like.
Adapt to the new paradigm or make way for somebody else who will.

Bob24

farrerg wrote: »

Scary stuff

Indeed - the surveyor also raised concerns about the layout of the specific apartment.

Updated fire safety certificates were requested from the seller, but they were not too interested in following-up (receiver sale, so it was to be expected).

To be honest aside from this the place is pretty good and we were happy with the deal we got (plus it is on the first floor and I am confident I can jump from the balcony in case of a fire :-)) - but everyone has Priory Hall in mind and you don't want to take the slightest chance when there is that much money involved.

farrerg

Got an email about a pre launch for Tapton in Sandyford last week, the brochure was scant to say the least, no images of the front of the houses, just floor plans, asking 600k for a 1400 sq ft 4 bed semi, over 3 storeys. I don't know murphystown road, but unless its a very desirable location, this seems very punchy to me. No price for the 3 beds yet.

farrerg

Bob24 wrote: »

Indeed - the surveyor also raised concerned about the layout of the specific apartment.

Updated fire safety certificates were requested from the seller, but they were not too interested in following-up (receiver sale, so it was to be expected).

Just shows the value of getting a surveyor, some people seem to skip it for an apt, this proves how bad an idea that is