Property Market 2015

MayBea

farrerg wrote: »

Got an email about a pre launch for Tapton in Sandyford last week, the brochure was scant to say the least, no images of the front of the houses, just floor plans, asking 600k for a 1400 sq ft 4 bed semi, over 3 storeys. I don't know murphystown road, but unless its a very desirable location, this seems very punchy to me. No price for the 3 beds yet.

Thanks for posting this, I was curious of the prices - 600K is very steep though!
Would 600k be the asking for a show house? I'd appreciate if you could PM me the price list please.

P.S. I checked the planning just now, not sure if these prices are achievable at all (if they are at 600k?). North-eastern aspect coupled with the fact it's a terrace..it's all very doubtful.

farrerg

MayBea wrote: »

Thanks for posting this, I was curious of the prices - 600K is very steep though!
Would 600k be the asking for a show house? I'd appreciate if you could PM me the price list please.

P.S. I checked the planning just now, not sure if these prices are achievable at all (if they are at 600k?). North-eastern aspect coupled with the fact it's a terrace..it's all very doubtful.

I didn't get a price list I'm afraid, just a follow up call from the EA, which ended pretty quickly when he said 600k!
The 4 beds seem to be south east and the 3 beds north east from the site map we got but it's not enough to justify it IMO

Shedite27

farrerg wrote: »

I didn't get a price list I'm afraid, just a follow up call from the EA, which ended pretty quickly when he said 600k!

I had the same reaction from Sion Hill starting at €660k

Rew

farrerg wrote: »

I didn't get a price list I'm afraid, just a follow up call from the EA, which ended pretty quickly when he said 600k!
The 4 beds seem to be south east and the 3 beds north east from the site map we got but it's not enough to justify it IMO

They look a lot more like Stepaside then Sandyford, what are they selling them as?

MayBea

Rew wrote: »

They look a lot more like Stepaside then Sandyford, what are they selling them as?

Myhome has them as Tapton, Murphystown Road, Leopardstown, D18.

gaius c

Shedite27 wrote: »

I had the same reaction from Sion Hill starting at €660k

On first glance, 361 per sq ft isn't horrendous as the current market goes.

CreepingDeath

CreepingDeath wrote: »

And I only heard a couple of days ago on this very forum that the central bank lender 10% deposit restrictions have a deadline of Aug 11th

Any details of this?

Gumbo

Dónal wrote: »

Any details of this?

All the mortgage approvals that where approved by the banks before the central bank lending limits are due to expire shortly.
ie. They have a shelf life. Some 6 months, some 9 etc

Floodzie

kceire wrote: »

Some 6 months, some 9 etc

What lenders are offering NINE months?? 6 months is the limit, so I've heard, and mid-August is the deadline. Please let us know what lenders offered a 9 month limit...

athtrasna

Floodzie wrote: »

What lenders are offering NINE months?? 6 months is the limit, so I've heard, and mid-August is the deadline. Please let us know what lenders offered a 9 month limit...

AIB currently advertising 12 months....think these posts will be better in the Property Market thread though

Floodzie

athtrasna wrote: »

AIB currently advertising 12 months....think these posts will be better in the Property Market thread though

But were they offering 12 months before the new Central Bank restrictions came in, is what I'm asking.

So basically, I don't believe there is anyone who can get a mortgage based on the previous Central Bank rules, beyond mid August, as the last date for these was mid February, and they had a maximum limit of 6 months.

NinjaTruncs

athtrasna wrote: »

AIB currently advertising 12 months....think these posts will be better in the Property Market thread though

This is taken from their site

MORTGAGE APPROVAL FOR 12 MONTHS IS BASED ON INITIAL SANCTION IN PRINCIPLE LASTING 6 MONTHS AND LETTER OF LOAN APPROVAL ON THE SELECTED PROPERTY LASTING A FURTHER 6 MONTHS.

It's really only 6 months of approval and then 6 months to draw down, which is what I have with BOI.

kceire

kceire wrote: »

All the mortgage approvals that where approved by the banks before the central bank lending limits are due to expire shortly.
ie. They have a shelf life. Some 6 months, some 9 etc

Yeah but the earlier post seems to suggest the 10% mortgage deposit up to 220k was temporary only, I haven't seen anywhere to suggest this?

Glenbhoy

I think the earlier post was commenting on the fact that the last approvals issued under the old rules are due to run out in the next few weeks. As far as I recall PTSB were offering 10 month approvals, although how realistic they were was anyone's guess as I'm not sure if they even went through underwriting. Truth is though that if you had an approval under the old rules, you would have needed to be sale agreed a few months ago to have a realistic chance of drawing down.

There has been no change to the rules issued in Feb 2015, at least not until our Sept budget, where who knows what the stalling property market will force our enlightened (and electioneering) leaders to do. It's all gone a bit low key though after the furore of the new rules introduction, so, might they actually leave well enough alone??

farrerg

I know someone who got an approval through at the very end feb on the old rules, i think their AIP is good to 1st Sep, have to be sale agreed by end Aug to get offer issued. Then another 6 months for drawdown. I would say they were one of the last through

gaius c

Floodzie wrote: »

What lenders are offering NINE months?? 6 months is the limit, so I've heard, and mid-August is the deadline. Please let us know what lenders offered a 9 month limit...

farrerg wrote: »

I know someone who got an approval through at the very end feb on the old rules, i think their AIP is good to 1st Sep, have to be sale agreed by end Aug to get offer issued. Then another 6 months for drawdown. I would say they were one of the last through

It's kind of irrelevant anyway because the rules apply to the banks NOW and they'll issue mortgages to comply with those, not some willy nilly AIP they handed out in the spring.

farrerg

gaius c wrote: »

It's kind of irrelevant anyway because the rules apply to the banks NOW and they'll issue mortgages to comply with those, not some willy nilly AIP they handed out in the spring.

True. It'd be a nasty surprise though to go back end of Aug and be told you were too late, must mention to them that the 11th Aug could be the deadline regardless of what they've been told

NinjaTruncs

farrerg wrote: »

True. It'd be a nasty surprise though to go back end of Aug and be told you were too late, must mention to them that the 11th Aug could be the deadline regardless of what they've been told

It won't actually be Aug 11th either. It would be some time before that. My mortgage advisor said the loan offer would need to be sent by the cutoff date. It can take a week or so for it to be processed.

gosplan

gosplan wrote: »

Sorry can I ask you to explain this bit please?

Also Dinosaur Train? WTF????

bump

Edit: Sorry the request for explaination was about developers and sealed bids. What exactly is that and what does it signify.

Thanks in advance

The_Conductor

gosplan wrote: »

bump

Edit: Sorry the request for explaination was about developers and sealed bids. What exactly is that and what does it signify.

Thanks in advance

In a few developments around West Dublin and Clonee- developers have requested agents approach interested parties- seeking best sealed offers. On the basis of these offers- people are being allowed choose which house their interested in- top offers down. Rokeby and Hawkridge in Lucan- feature this- as does the reopened development in Clonee (can't think of its name off hand). People are then signing contracts on the basis of these offers- right here, right now- before the properties are built.

Dinosaur train- I had to change my username because of work commitments- and my kids love Dinosaur train- so I ran with it.

johnp001

Davy report yesterday:
Irish housing market transactions slow in second quarter

Davy report today:
Central Bank rules weigh on mortgage approval growth

And even PP are not offering odds on CSO results for 2015 at the moment:
House Prices Betting

crisco10

johnp001 wrote: »

Davy report yesterday:
Irish housing market transactions slow in second quarter

Davy report today:
Central Bank rules weigh on mortgage approval growth

And even PP are not offering odds on CSO results for 2015 at the moment:
House Prices Betting

Dont have access to the full Davy reports, but aren't they just saying the rate of change of growth is slowing? as opposed to growth slowing?

johnp001

crisco10 wrote: »

Dont have access to the full Davy reports, but aren't they just saying the rate of change of growth is slowing? as opposed to growth slowing?

They are saying that growth is slowing.
Q2 YoY growth figures are positive due mainly to the periods of last year still in the 12 month frame but growth is slowing as each quarter has lower growth than the previous.
Rate of change of growth is negative and accelerating.
e.g.

Total approvals were up just 11.3% year-on-year in Q2. This compares to stellar growth of +44% year-on-year in Q1 and +58% year-on-year in Q4.

Q4 2014: 58% YoY
Q1 2015: 44% YoY
Q2 2015: 11.3% YoY

Rate of change of growth is -14%/Q from Q4 to Q1 and -32.7%/Q from Q1 to Q2

At the turn of the year Davy were predicting growth of 9% or 10% (if I recall correctly). Wonder if they are sticking with that now. Seems very unlikely. I'm in the middle of buying a house but I still think the market is very subdued and wouldn't be surprised if 2015 was slightly negative overall.

johnp001

Deleted User wrote: »

At the turn of the year Davy were predicting growth of 9% or 10% (if I recall correctly). Wonder if they are sticking with that now. Seems very unlikely. I'm in the middle of buying a house but I still think the market is very subdued and wouldn't be surprised if 2015 was slightly negative overall.

Don't know have Davy come out with a revised house price change prediction. The only bit of information on changing predictions in the excerpts from those two latest stories was a revision of projected mortgage lending for the year.

...we will have to revise down our forecast for mortgage lending in 2015 from €4.5bn towards €4bn.

Earlier in the year Paddy Power were offering substantial odds against the CSO index being negative for the year.
Latest odds on Paddy Power's house prices 2015 book have shifted significantly towards predicting a decrease.

The book is not available at the moment, it will be interesting to see what odds it has if it comes back online.
In February/March the shortest odds were on increases in the +4% to +8% range, from April the favourite became decreases of 0 to -4%

seamus

Deleted User wrote: »

At the turn of the year Davy were predicting growth of 9% or 10% (if I recall correctly). Wonder if they are sticking with that now. Seems very unlikely. I'm in the middle of buying a house but I still think the market is very subdued and wouldn't be surprised if 2015 was slightly negative overall.

Probably. The strong sales in Q1 will likely balance out the rest of the year to give ~10% growth in the year.

In 2007 Sherryfitz made the same prediction. In hindsight predicting any growth in 2007 sounds like madness because the market fell off a cliff in Q2. But averaged out over the year, 2007 technically saw house prices increase by around 10%.

johnp001

seamus wrote: »

Probably. The strong sales in Q1 will likely balance out the rest of the year to give ~10% growth in the year.

In 2007 Sherryfitz made the same prediction. In hindsight predicting any growth in 2007 sounds like madness because the market fell off a cliff in Q2. But averaged out over the year, 2007 technically saw house prices increase by around 10%.

CSO figures are +0.2% nationally or -0.6% for Dublin for the 5 months already recorded (either by simple sum of monthly percentage changes or by comparing RPPI base vs Dec 2014 figures).
To give +10% growth YoY at the end of the year would require dramatic rises for the rest of the year.

gaius c

seamus wrote: »

Probably. The strong sales in Q1 will likely balance out the rest of the year to give ~10% growth in the year.

In 2007 Sherryfitz made the same prediction. In hindsight predicting any growth in 2007 sounds like madness because the market fell off a cliff in Q2. But averaged out over the year, 2007 technically saw house prices increase by around 10%.

There were lots of sales in Q1 but at average lower price points. My PPR trends are showing a biggish price increase for June but transactions are dying. See the graph below. The trend of the previous 3-4 years is unlikely to be repeated based on current data.

So for the summer, we have less houses selling but at lower price points. It's a flight to quality with poor quality houses (or poorly priced good houses) simply not selling. Less cheap houses sold means the average will actually increase. CSO index is probably more useful at a time like this. Unsold stock is building up. We're in a phoney war phase until vendors see reality.

Rambler11

Did anyone hear how the auctions in galway went this week?

El_Dangeroso

Rambler11 wrote: »

Did anyone hear how the auctions in galway went this week?

I know the DNG one is on this afternoon. What other auctions happened this week?