Property Market 2015

gaius c

Kinet1c wrote: »

Have they sold though? Any movement on price?

Assuming they don't sell, they'll probably hold tight for a bit and blame lack of interest/selling on other factors until it dawns on them that they are looking for too much money.
Won't happen until Feb/March, maybe April at the earliest.

In 2007, it took much longer for the drops to start because of the sheer disbelief at the notion that drops could actually happen. Not so now. Folks who are already comfortably out of NE and hung on too long out of greed could well cause a "rush for the exits".
All speculation of course.

The_Conductor

tvc15 wrote: »

Where near Naas can you get a 4 bed detached for that?

Looking at myhome.ie and daft.ie - you're going to have trouble finding a 4 bed detached for less than 300k.

Myhome- 4 beds in Naas

Daft - 4 beds in Naas

A few examples do exist- but in dodgy estates- like Monread-

Example: http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/7-monread-gardens-naas-co-kildare/2978271


Realistically- if you're looking for a 4 bed detached in Naas proper- you need a budget of at least 350k........

helimachoptor

crisco10 wrote: »

Currently looking for house (~400k) in South County Dublin, viewings are busy enough but I think that's more that there aren't many new properties for show at the moment. Hopefully some more stock will come on market as new year comes!

we are looking at 500K and a bit above purely for speculation as we hope prices fall off this year.

However in the few prices that are ~550K, estate agents are not budging.
One house which we have seen twice is up for about 8 months @ 575k, estate agent says that the vendor is insisting on not accepting anything below asking... so far they have no bids at asking.

Some people need to re-set their expectations

seamus

Kinet1c wrote: »

Have they sold though? Any movement on price?

There's definitely some selling going on, but not a lot.
Anecdotally, and this is borne out quite a bit if you look at the PPR stats for Nov/Dec, anything under €300k in Dublin is flying off the shelves.
In SCD and other areas, there's also a good bit of interest in the 300-400k range, but pretty small above that.

I took all of Dublin from the PPR for Nov/Dec:

Total Properties|1937|
< 200k|573|30%
200 - 300|505|26%
300 - 400|352|18%
400 - 500|166|9%
> 500k|341|18%

So more than half of the properties selling in Dublin are under the 300k mark, and 3 quarters of the market are under €400k.

That's still pretty high, but there are lots of commentators who would like people to believe that the battles are being fought in the €400k+ range, when that's clearly not the case. Even looking at the programme RTE put out late last year, that was virtually all couples looking at €400-500k properties in Dublin, when that's less than a tenth of what's actually being bought and sold.

Remember that the next time you're looking at a €420k property and you're told there's tonnes of interest - most of the people there are just noseying and not looking to buy at all, they want something under €400k

The yearly figures for Dublin play out pretty much the same:

Total Properties|12232|
< 200k|4154|34%
200 - 300|3089|25%
300 - 400|1916|16%
400 - 500|1041|9%
> 500k|2032|17%

handlemaster wrote: »

45 to dublin then how long after to get to Work ? Plus fuel costs.people just dont value their time like they should. Life is short dont spend 40 hrs a month in your car. Thats with 1 hr to Work. Also your kids wont love you more because you by the big house in the country if they dont see much of y ou.

Indeed, if you consider that in real terms, that's an extra week of work, every month and averages out to a 50 hour week, every week. So if your boss told you that you could live next door to the office in a big house, so long as you were willing to do a ten-hour day every Saturday, unpaid. Would you do that?

Kinet1c

Good post. We've been following the SCD market for about 18 months now, deposit in hand. Prices are above what we're willing to pay, in total and on a mortgage, so we're hoping that the 20% rule does see a reduction in this area of the market. I can see people who bought from 2002-2008 in the area we're looking at not budging though as they'll be in large NE so it'll most likely be probate/fixer uppers that will be in our price range. Thankfully in no rush for probably up to another 24-36 months which will only see our deposit and buying power improve but would go for something if it was somewhere we thought we'd see the rest of our days out.

Sala

Kinet1c wrote: »

Good post. We've been following the SCD market for about 18 months now, deposit in hand. Prices are above what we're willing to pay, in total and on a mortgage, so we're hoping that the 20% rule does see a reduction in this area of the market. I can see people who bought from 2002-2008 in the area we're looking at not budging though as they'll be in large NE so it'll most likely be probate/fixer uppers that will be in our price range. Thankfully in no rush for probably up to another 24-36 months which will only see our deposit and buying power improve but would go for something if it was somewhere we thought we'd see the rest of our days out.

I hope so too, but as you said there are a lot that won't budge. I contacted EAs about 2 houses, up 6 months if not more, and no offers. One of them even at 20% off the asking would still not be cheap for the area. I suspect a lot of these are negative equity mortgages and they will try to sell if they can get close to the mortgage. I suspect we too will be looking executor sales and surrender/repossessed properties - anything with the owners in situ probably isn't going to come down in asking much

leinsterdude

tvc15 wrote: »

Where near Naas can you get a 4 bed detached for that?

Within 8-10 miles, plenty of areas, I'm Kilcullen, 7-8 miles from Naas

handlemaster

leinsterdude wrote: »

Within 8-10 miles, plenty of areas, I'm Kilcullen, 7-8 miles from Naas

8-10 miles from naas isnt naas.

handlemaster

http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/forecasting-the-market-what-s-in-store-for-property-in-2015-1.2064439

Irish times assessment of 2015 market.

Sherry fitz think there will Be strong growth in west Dublin and north Dublin as these areas havent bounced back as quickly as others . I though there was just as big a growth there as else where in Dublin .

johnp001

handlemaster wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/forecasting-the-market-what-s-in-store-for-property-in-2015-1.2064439

Irish times assessment of 2015 market.

Sherry fitz think there will Be strong growth in west Dublin and north Dublin as these areas havent bounced back as quickly as others . I though there was just as big a growth there as else where in Dublin .

Daft Q4 2014 report shows Dublin West as the number 1 growth rate in the country with Dublin North as number 3 across all categories of property.
SF must have a good bit on their books in West and North Dublin is all

lima

Dublin north probably includes Clontarf/Malahide in with Finglas/Ballymun, so wouldn't that skew reports?

Sala

handlemaster wrote: »

The whole buying an hrs drive etc from dublin and then into traffic is nonscience . The lovely home that you will see very little of and the kids your to tired to play with all make it very un attractive . As someone said in a post better off to rent in Dublin or buy what you can afford inDublin

As someone already said, commuting to "Dublin" really depends on where you work. I lived in Wicklow, had a job in South Dublin that started and finished early so I missed the bad traffic, and my commute in the car was 45 mins door to door. Now I work in the City Centre, commute on bus from South Dublin which is only 7km away (compared to 45km) and it's 50mins door to door.

jay0109

Re: Commute.

Even if you live and work in Dublin, you still have to commute. I walk to work (from D6W to the Quays) every day and it takes 45 minutes.
Yeah, I save on fuel and get good exercise....but I'm sure there are people living outside of Dublin getting to work in the city faster than me most days

gaius c

jay0109 wrote: »

Re: Commute.

Even if you live and work in Dublin, you still have to commute. I walk to work (from D6W to the Quays) every day and it takes 45 minutes.
Yeah, I save on fuel and get good exercise....but I'm sure there are people living outside of Dublin getting to work in the city faster than me most days

First world problems. :P

Less than 45 minutes from outside m50 to city centre in the morning? Very very doubtful.

Caliden

jay0109 wrote: »

Re: Commute.

Even if you live and work in Dublin, you still have to commute. I walk to work (from D6W to the Quays) every day and it takes 45 minutes.
Yeah, I save on fuel and get good exercise....but I'm sure there are people living outside of Dublin getting to work in the city faster than me most days

Highly doubt it takes them less. I live in d4 and I drive to Citywest for work at 8:30am. It takes me 45 minutes to drive 15km and I'm going AGAINST traffic.

jay0109

gaius c wrote: »

First world problems. :P

Less than 45 minutes from outside m50 to city centre in the morning? Very very doubtful.

Just sayin is all, for balance.
Boss comes in from Kildare (near Maynooth) every morning for 7.30. Takes less than 30mins.
Different story I'm sure when he leaves at 5.

Kildare is not the end of the world!

desertcircus

Sala wrote: »

As someone already said, commuting to "Dublin" really depends on where you work. I lived in Wicklow, had a job in South Dublin that started and finished early so I missed the bad traffic, and my commute in the car was 45 mins door to door. Now I work in the City Centre, commute on bus from South Dublin which is only 7km away (compared to 45km) and it's 50mins door to door.

That distance can be done on a bike in half an hour even at a leisurely pace. Get a road bike and push and you could probably crack twenty minutes...

helimachoptor

i do 9km on the rothar to the city.
Once you get to stillorgan park hotel its pretty much flat/downhill. at a slow pace you should be doing it in 25 mins at the most

helimachoptor

here's a question for you chaps and chapettes.

house for 600K on the market for 6+ months, no bids.

What would you bid?

jay0109

helimachoptor wrote: »

here's a question for you chaps and chapettes.

house for 600K on the market for 6+ months, no bids.

What would you bid?

I'm looking at similar priced houses in SCD...no bids, some with price drops etc, no upcoming viewings.

Hard 1 to get right - ask for a viewing, then bid 20% less and the EA may take you as a messer and not go out of their way on the next house you want to see.
But the market has slowed down and IMO, house prices are well over valued.

So I'm going to be asking for a few viewings in the coming weeks, and I can't see myself going in at anything other than 10% under asking at least....if I like the house on the day.

In any case most of the houses I'm looking at require work...modernisation, extensions, upgrading etc. So thats even more money.

seamus

How long is a piece of string, to be fair. Take what you think it's worth and offer 10% less than that, for starters.

Apply some common sense obviously. If the above calculation means you end up offering €450k, then they might laugh at you. But then you also have to consider whether you think it's worth the large price you're considering paying for it.

The_Conductor

helimachoptor wrote: »

here's a question for you chaps and chapettes.

house for 600K on the market for 6+ months, no bids.

What would you bid?

500k?

helimachoptor

jay0109 wrote: »

I'm looking at similar priced houses in SCD...no bids, some with price drops etc, no upcoming viewings.

Hard 1 to get right - ask for a viewing, then bid 20% less and the EA may take you as a messer and not go out of their way on the next house you want to see.
But the market has slowed down and IMO, house prices are well over valued.

So I'm going to be asking for a few viewings in the coming weeks, and I can't see myself going in at anything other than 10% under asking at least....if I like the house on the day.

In any case most of the houses I'm looking at require work...modernisation, extensions, upgrading etc. So thats even more money.

House i'm looking at requires some stuff done, some cosmetic work, but some infrastructure work too but nothing too bad. Frankly 600K its priced way too high. A house in the same estate went for 430K late last year but it was about 60 sq m smaller.

Tbh i would be prepared to pay 500K, but would hope to pay 470 but we'll see how it goes.
Its a nice house but if the price isn't right i wont be buying it.

It is a house that will likely be still on the market in 6 months time.

seamus

helimachoptor wrote: »

Its a nice house but if the price isn't right i wont be buying it.

It is a house that will likely be still on the market in 6 months time.

You might have to just walk on and forget about it.

With the slightly more expensive houses, there are older people entering the market to sell, with a view to moving on and having a nice retirement. They have no real mortgage to speak of, but they do have plans, which require a set amount of capital because they don't (and won't get) a mortgage in their retirement years.

But there's nobody twisting their arm and they can just as easily stay where they are if they don't get the offer they want. I know of one such couple who want to up sticks and move to west cork, but if they don't get €700k they're just as happy to stay in the family home they've lived in for 25 years.

helimachoptor

seamus wrote: »

You might have to just walk on and forget about it.

With the slightly more expensive houses, there are older people entering the market to sell, with a view to moving on and having a nice retirement. They have no real mortgage to speak of, but they do have plans, which require a set amount of capital because they don't (and won't get) a mortgage in their retirement years.

But there's nobody twisting their arm and they can just as easily stay where they are if they don't get the offer they want. I know of one such couple who want to up sticks and move to west cork, but if they don't get €700k they're just as happy to stay in the family home they've lived in for 25 years.

yeah that is a distinct possibility, we'll re-view make an offer and see where it goes from there.

jay0109

helimachoptor wrote: »

yeah that is a distinct possibility, we'll re-view make an offer and see where it goes from there.

I'd make a direct comparison to the 430k that least sold, add a small premium for the extra 60m2 and tell the EA thats how you arrived at 470k
Seems rational to me

jmayo

Did anybody hear the interview with Pual Joyce of Free Legal Advice Centre (FLAC) on Morning Ireland RTE Radio1 this morning regarding repossessions ?

http://www.rte.ie/radio1/morning-ireland/programmes/2015/0115/672689-morning-ireland-thursday-15-january-2015/?clipid=1773173

I could not believe some of the guff this guy was coming out with regarding repossessions.
He mentioned how repossession application numbers have been up, alarmingly to him anyway, for the latter half of the year.

He mentioned how numbers in arrears have fallen, due to improved circumstances, help from families and wait for it ... because they may have always been able to pay anyway.

He thinks it would be bad to have repossessing at a time when there is limited supply and there are 90,000 on housing list.
Of course he fails to mention that the property will probably end up with someone living in it anyway.

He appears to think someone in arrears for years still should not face repossession unless there is a massive consulation process before it ever gets to court and there is an independent 3rd party overseeing the process.
Ehh he neglects to mention who pays for this independent 3rd party body. :rolleyes:

The one question I ask is how long should a person in mortgage arrears get before they face repossession coourt proceeding nevermind being turfed out ?
Because if guys like this get their way mortgage holders who are paying their way, new mortgage borrowers and taxpayers in general are going to be forking out for defaulters to live rent free for many more years.

Sala

jmayo wrote: »

Did anybody hear the interview with Pual Joyce of Free Legal Advice Centre (FLAC) on Morning Ireland RTE Radio1 this morning regarding repossessions ?

I didn't hear it but I saw the Times article on the report. One of the more frightening suggestions: "This body should have the powers to force banks into compulsory write-downs of debt for genuine cases where people can't pay."
I assume this could lead to a scenario where person A owes 300k, can only pay 150k, bank forced into a write down to 150k, person B would be willing to purchase the property for 200k but can't since person A has no incentive to leave, person A keeps the property at a reduced cost, person B pay more taxes to pay for this writedown...

jay0109

jmayo wrote: »

Did anybody hear the interview with Pual Joyce of Free Legal Advice Centre (FLAC) on Morning Ireland RTE Radio1 this morning regarding repossessions ?.....

He appears to think someone in arrears for years still should not face repossession unless there is a massive consulation process before it ever gets to court and there is an independent 3rd party overseeing the process.
Ehh he neglects to mention who pays for this independent 3rd party body. :rolleyes:

FLAC feed off the public purse....people like him never worry about where the money comes from.
In fact, a new outfit like this would help the likes of him in career progression

handlemaster

Jmayo.. its the same rubbish all the time. He obviously hasnt sold somthing and not got paid for it. But turkeys dont vote for Christmas.