Property Market 2015

MarkAnthony

jay0109 wrote: »

FLAC feed off the public purse....people like him never worry about where the money comes from.
In fact, a new outfit like this would help the likes of him in career progression

How exactly do FLAC feed off the public purse other than some exceptionally small grants, that they deserve a hundred times over.

I think you're confusing FLAC with Legal Aid.

handlemaster

[QUOTE=MarkAnthony;9385

5163]How exactly do FLAC feed off the public purse other than some exceptionally small grants, that they deserve a hundred times over.

I think you're confusing FLAC with Legal Aid.[/QUOTE]

Why do they deserve it ?

Sounds like he'd like more. Exactly want we need more hand outs by the tax payer

Sala

MarkAnthony wrote: »

How exactly do FLAC feed off the public purse other than some exceptionally small grants, that they deserve a hundred times over.

I think you're confusing FLAC with Legal Aid.

Yes, and to note all the evening centres are run by volunteer solicitors, barristers, trainees etc. They provide a huge number of legal advice clinics for free

MarkAnthony

handlemaster wrote: »

Why do they deserve it ?

Sounds like he'd like more. Exactly want we need more hand outs by the tax payer

They have less than 1.6m (2012) in funding much of which comes from the bar council and public donations. They provide an invaluable service to all sections of the community especially to those who would have no access to legal advice otherwise.

I'm sorry but you're either confused as to what FLAC is or deluded.

Sala

MarkAnthony wrote: »

They have less than 1.6m (2012) in funding much of which comes from the bar council and public donations. They provide an invaluable service to all sections of the community especially to those who would have no access to legal advice otherwise.

I'm sorry but you're either confused as to what FLAC is or deluded.

Agreed. They have around 30 centres in Dublin alone and a few per county in the rest of the country, probably over 100 centres, each one has a least one solicitor/ barrister, assistant/trainee and someone on reception, some have a few solicitors sitting at a time. That means there are hundreds of legal professionals and volunteers providing legal advice for free to people who can't afford it, and provide training and research on matters of public importance, all on a shoestring budget relative to the size of the organisation.

I still don't agree with Paul Joyce's debt write off solution, but that's his opinion and certainly doesn't devalue the great work FLAC does.

jmayo

jay0109 wrote: »

FLAC feed off the public purse....people like him never worry about where the money comes from.
In fact, a new outfit like this would help the likes of him in career progression

Actually that got me thinking.
This guy would be the type suitable for such a body i.e. someone with a legal and financial services background. :rolleyes:

Sala wrote: »

Yes, and to note all the evening centres are run by volunteer solicitors, barristers, trainees etc. They provide a huge number of legal advice clinics for free

Solicitors & barristers providing something for free. :eek:
Ok where is the catch ?
Anytime I have talked to a solicitor it has cost me, even going on date with one meant I had to buy the booze/food.

Barely Hedged

Dublin residental -> +5% to 7%. Shortage in supply, wage inflation, CB requirements

Dublin City -> 0% to -5%. Drop in cash buyers

Rural -> +10%

starlit

Fkall wrote: »

Dublin houses prices +8%
Dublin Apartment prices + 10%
Rents Dublin +10%

How have the apartments prices increased more than the houses?

The rise in rents in Dublin is scandalous!

Is it really 10% increase prices in Rural areas? I thought they came down?

yankinlk

doovdela wrote: »

How have the apartments prices increased more than the houses?

The rise in rents in Dublin is scandalous!

Is it really 10% increase prices in Rural areas? I thought they came down?

its a prediction for 2015

Michael D Not Higgins

doovdela wrote: »

How have the apartments prices increased more than the houses?

The rise in rents in Dublin is scandalous!

Is it really 10% increase prices in Rural areas? I thought they came down?

I believe those are his 2015 predictions.

johnp001

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Dublin residental -> +5% to 7%. Shortage in supply, wage inflation, CB requirements

Dublin City -> 0% to -5%. Drop in cash buyers

Rural -> +10%

Interesting predictions.
I am interested to know what you foresee driving increases in the rural market?
As far as I can see the prices in areas outside Dublin and commuter counties (Meath, Kildare, Wicklow) and regional cities (Galway City, Cork City but not Limerick, Waterford or Kilkenny) have never recovered from their falls in the crash and at best have stabilised in the last year as more urban areas rose significantly.
The macro factors affecting the Dublin market that you mention ,e.g. CB requirements, Drop in cash buyers (due to CGT exemption ending) also affect the rural market.
Whatever the state of the economic recovery there does not seem to be any surge of extra jobs outside the main cities to support a property boom in rural areas.

El_Dangeroso

johnp001 wrote: »

Interesting predictions.
I am interested to know what you foresee driving increases in the rural market?
As far as I can see the prices in areas outside Dublin and commuter counties (Meath, Kildare, Wicklow) and regional cities (Galway City, Cork City but not Limerick, Waterford or Kilkenny) have never recovered from their falls in the crash and at best have stabilised in the last year as more urban areas rose significantly.
The macro factors affecting the Dublin market that you mention ,e.g. CB requirements, Drop in cash buyers (due to CGT exemption ending) also affect the rural market.
Whatever the state of the economic recovery there does not seem to be any surge of extra jobs outside the main cities to support a property boom in rural areas.

I don't know about elsewhere but Galway city has gone mental. An otherwise unremarkable 2 bed in salthill went for 500K at auction!

If you don't count that as recovery then I greatly fear a recovery!

Holsten

Dublin rents will shoot up, 15%+ throughout the year.

johnp001

El_Dangeroso wrote: »

I don't know about elsewhere but Galway city has gone mental. An otherwise unremarkable 2 bed in salthill went for 500K at auction!

If you don't count that as recovery then I greatly fear a recovery!

Yes, Galway city has recovered (as stated in my post) the rural parts of the county have not though and this is borne out by the PPR figures for county galway as a whole which are barely up 3% in 2014 over 2013.
So if/as Galway City has risen by more than 3% in the year then the rural areas of the county must still be in decline in order to drag down the recorded price increases for the county overall.

makeorbrake

El_Dangeroso wrote: »

I don't know about elsewhere but Galway city has gone mental. An otherwise unremarkable 2 bed in salthill went for 500K at auction!

If you don't count that as recovery then I greatly fear a recovery!

Small town - supply constrained. Been looking for 3 years. Only casually looking any more. Each to their own, but I don't see present prospects as 'value'.

Misjudged 'value' (along with practically everyone else at the time) once before - I'll be damned if I'll do it a second time.

handlemaster

Holsten wrote: »

Dublin rents will shoot up, 15%+ throughout the year.

I seen this and tought very unlikely then I remembered seeing dublin 15 three beds making 1200 Last year are now 1300. So you could be right.

Barely Hedged

makeorbrake wrote: »

Small town - supply constrained. Been looking for 3 years. Only casually looking any more. Each to their own, but I don't see present prospects as 'value'.

Misjudged 'value' (along with practically everyone else at the time) once before - I'll be damned if I'll do it a second time.

Was there not any value between 2011/12 and now?

I assume the previous time you refer to is 05-07?

Barely Hedged

johnp001 wrote: »

Interesting predictions.
I am interested to know what you foresee driving increases in the rural market?
As far as I can see the prices in areas outside Dublin and commuter counties (Meath, Kildare, Wicklow) and regional cities (Galway City, Cork City but not Limerick, Waterford or Kilkenny) have never recovered from their falls in the crash and at best have stabilised in the last year as more urban areas rose significantly.
The macro factors affecting the Dublin market that you mention ,e.g. CB requirements, Drop in cash buyers (due to CGT exemption ending) also affect the rural market.
Whatever the state of the economic recovery there does not seem to be any surge of extra jobs outside the main cities to support a property boom in rural areas.

There has been zero growth in the past 7 years in rural counties. As more people re-enter employment, wage inflation takes hold there will be more money sloshing around and it wouldnt be hard to move 10% after falling 60-70% since 2007 and zero growth rates since then

johnp001

Barely Hedged wrote: »

There has been zero growth in the past 7 years in rural counties. As more people re-enter employment, wage inflation takes hold there will be more money sloshing around and it wouldnt be hard to move 10% after falling 60-70% since 2007 and zero growth rates since then

I agree that there has been zero growth in rural counties. There has only been growth in areas that have access to employment. Eg. Dublin has experienced growth in jobs/wages and the property market there has increased (along with commuter counties) Waterford and limerick have not had the same employmenter growth and property prices are still in decline. Wage inflation only occurs when employers have to compete for employees. This seldom happens outside the main cities. There has been no decentralisation of employment that will make the rural property market increase. If all the factors that drove the dublin market up last year could barely arrest the decline in prices in rural areas then rural prices have nowhere to go but down this year.

Barely Hedged

johnp001 wrote: »

I agree that there has been zero growth in rural counties. There has only been growth in areas that have access to employment. Eg. Dublin has experienced growth in jobs/wages and the property market there has increased (along with commuter counties) Waterford and limerick have not had the same employmenter growth and property prices are still in decline. Wage inflation only occurs when employers have to compete for employees. This seldom happens outside the main cities. There has been no decentralisation of employment that will make the rural property market increase. If all the factors that drove the dublin market up last year could barely arrest the decline in prices in rural areas then rural prices have nowhere to go but down this year.

Not necessarily - wage growth occurs in the civil service and theres no competition for employees. There are quite a lot of people employed by the government in rural areas. There'll be a reduction in income taxes which points to more money in circulation.

What happened in Dublin was a correction on an over pessimistic drop on prices. Corrections that occur are pronounced and sharp compared to the fallen price level and dont last long. Im calling the same correction in rural house prices for 2015

The_Conductor

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Not necessarily - wage growth occurs in the civil service and theres no competition for employees. There are quite a lot of people employed by the government in rural areas. There'll be a reduction in income taxes which points to more money in circulation.

Wage growth hasn't occurred in the civil service though- the public sector wage bill is down over 30% since 2007. This has also disproportionately affected rural communities- as a far higher proportion of employment in rural populations are in the public sector, than in Dublin, Cork, Galway and the other cities and towns. For example- 2/3 of the civil service is decentralised (which many people don't realise) and in the public sector in general- in some rural areas- up to 100% of employment is public sector. This has depressed rural property prices- as the money is not there.

Private sector wage bills are beginning to increase in Dublin and Cork- with the Chamber's of Commerce forecasting increases in the region of 2% on average- but sectorally up to 10-15%, in 2015 (well done to any computer programmers out there- but so too to service sector workers- who look likely to get decent increases- alongside an end to zero hour contract employment).

Barely Hedged wrote: »

What happened in Dublin was a correction on an over pessimistic drop on prices. Corrections that occur are pronounced and sharp compared to the fallen price level and dont last long. Im calling the same correction in rural house prices for 2015

I would classify it as a correction on over pessimistic drops in prices. Dublin prices are still North of most London areas- and the 'correction' has been very localised (as Developers trying to get developments in West Dublin and North Dublin off the ground are discovering). People want to live in South Dublin (in general- but even this is overly simplistic- its particular postcodes that people want to live in). People are not willing to pay 'corrected prices' for new developments in Lucan, Blanchardstown and Coolock. There are over 40,000 new homes on hold- because developers aren't sure that they are worth building- and this in a market as parched of property- as Dublin.........

The biggest issue- and the biggest driver of price rises- has been perception- alongside people all wanting to live in very high demand areas. There was a knock-on effect in Dublin West/Kildare/Meath etc- but even this is cooling rapidly- to the extent that several planned developments have been put on hold- and some developments in Lucan and Blanchardstown (from NAMA) are being sold at significantly below their cost of development.

Sentiment and the herd mentality- are very hard things to shake- and until sacred cows are slaughtered on the alter of development- like highrise and densities- we are not going to break the vicious cycle.

Dublin has now stagnated- with the exception of South Co. Dublin- where people are still willing to tear lumps out of each other to purchase at pretty much any cost. The rest of the country will surely follow in due course- wage rises for the first time in a decade, notwithstanding.

johnp001

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Not necessarily - wage growth occurs in the civil service and theres no competition for employees. There are quite a lot of people employed by the government in rural areas. There'll be a reduction in income taxes which points to more money in circulation.

What happened in Dublin was a correction on an over pessimistic drop on prices. Corrections that occur are pronounced and sharp compared to the fallen price level and dont last long. Im calling the same correction in rural house prices for 2015

I don't accept that civil service incomes have increased. They are down massively (compared even to private sector incomes which have also fallen since the boom).
Newer entrants to civil service,which are more likely to be those entering the housing market, are also on less lucrative contracts.
Previous post in this thread
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=93761625&postcount=175
pointed to an analysis of affordability which details how affordability is actually down since the height of the boom with particular reference to civil service incomes.
I definitely agree that "corrections" like the one in Dublin last year don't last long and figures such as the latest PPR figures and DAFT Q4 report bear that out, showing a return to house price falls.
Thanks for your replies putting forward your arguments for rural house price growth in 2015.
My prediction is still for further falls in rural house prices. The only increases that I could possibly foresee would be in a rural area with access to newly created private sector jobs and unfortunately there aren't many of those!

mickman

Why waste time writing these predictions? The people that post these predictions or reckon they know what will happen ard talking complete rubbish

The_Conductor

mickman wrote: »

Why waste time writing these predictions? The people that post these predictions or reckon they know what will happen ard talking complete rubbish

You too took the time to write this. Why did you waste your time belittling other people's predictions? No-one has claimed they know what will happen- people are looking at wider events and choosing a particular scenario that they reckon more likely than other scenarios to come to pass.

Other people's opinions are equally as valid- as yours.

yankinlk

mickman wrote: »

Why waste time writing these predictions? The people that post these predictions or reckon they know what will happen ard talking complete rubbish

i could be mean and quote your prediction from may last year on a different thread, but that would be stalking.

i think we are posting our predictions because 1. we are interested in an outcome, 2. we are brave enough to put our opinions in black and white for all to see , 3. for a laugh to be able to look back and see the result.

Not because any of us think we can actually foretell the future.

El_Dangeroso

johnp001 wrote: »

Yes, Galway city has recovered (as stated in my post) the rural parts of the county have not though and this is borne out by the PPR figures for county galway as a whole which are barely up 3% in 2014 over 2013.
So if/as Galway City has risen by more than 3% in the year then the rural areas of the county must still be in decline in order to drag down the recorded price increases for the county overall.

Sorry misread your post,:o

makeorbrake

Barely Hedged wrote: »

I assume the previous time you refer to is 05-07?

Correct.

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Was there not any value between 2011/12 and now?

Three things to say on that...

- Perhaps there was, but not a whole lot to take advantage of when there was little in the way of actual supply in that time.

- I found myself in a scenario whereby I was gathering up funds. I seem to have been chasing this i.e. if I had the funds available to me back in 2011 that I have now, I think there's a greater likelihood I would have ended up picking something up.

- The other thing is that I never envisaged such a quick turn around - and not just the pace of that turnaround but the total lack of value we now see (obviously, that's just my opinion. Evidently, plenty of others don't agree...or else this scenario wouldn't exist).

handlemaster

with the ecb about to start printing money and the euro value going down this is going to have an affect also. investors and people entering ireland will have more cash. people in ireland will see savings eroded more with devaluation also inflation will rise. In order to retain savings some people will invest in property

The_Conductor

handlemaster wrote: »

with the ecb about to start printing money and the euro value going down this is going to have an affect also. investors and people entering ireland will have more cash. people in ireland will see savings eroded more with devaluation also inflation will rise. In order to retain savings some people will invest in property

I'm not so sure......
The only way they could get agreement for quantitative easing- was by agreeing that any debt purchases, would reside solely with sovereign central banks, and not the ECB itself. It was an agreed mechanism to ringfence any contamination that the exercise might introduce into the system. On this basis- expected regrading of Irish debt last week- did not occur.
I can't see the Irish central bank having an appetite to purchase more Irish debt- especially as they are already under instruction to divest themselves of the pre-existing debt.

The Irish government does not need to use this mechanism to finance itself- debtors are more than happy to change their current paper for longer dated paper (we have a remarkable amount of 2030 paper in circulation)- and we have no issue raising the funds we need (probably 16-17 billion in 2015, all told).

If the government could park any debt it plans to issue with the central bank- instead of with institutional investors- any interest due on it would ultimately accrue to the state- but I don't know if there is the appetite to do this.

In cases like Greece- where the interest they have to pay on government debt to get it over the line is already in the region of 10%, and it costs 21 million per 100 million to insure against default- the proposal might be viewed very differently- as they have a purchaser of last resort- regardless of the interest rate they pay. However- despite their political uncertainty- its improbable that they would mint a fresh 300 billion and pay off their international debtors- as the country would be viewed with a whole new level of toxicity. I can't see the more sane members of the Eurozone- the Nordics, Germany- hell even ourselves- agree to this sort of shenanigan.......

Its not QE in the traditional sense- and we don't have the backfall of our currency being held in the esteem of dollars, to underpin it- we could potentially end up with a significant devaluation, which might kickstart the Eurozone economies- but it might also put inflation on steroids......... It all depends on perceptions- and what they actually do.........

People are going to look for a store of wealth- certainly- but Irish property? I'm not so sure..........

yankinlk

anyone else noticing sale agreed signs popping up on large tracts of land lately?