Property Market 2015

alastair

gaius c wrote: »

Not me. I flagged it last week or the week before based on PPR figures alone.

P.S. Not being entirely serious here!

Again - not entirely serious, but January is a tad before last week, so I think the IT have had their finger on the pulse all along: http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/forecasting-the-market-what-s-in-store-for-property-in-2015-1.2064439

There’s a consensus among industry stakeholders that growth will not continue in 2015 at the same rates we have seen.

gosplan

L'Enfer du Nord wrote: »

In simple terms average property prices are either going up or down. In response to this the media message flips between:

Prices are going up now's the time to buy before they go up even more.

Prices are going down, but they aren't going to go down any more now's the time to buy before they start going up (which will be very soon).

It's so hard to trust them tbh.

I think it's very telling that the most anyone will say is period of zero growth or flat period. It's not a coincidence that they have to say this because it's what happening.

Bulls or bears or whatever. I'm not getting into a discussion about where it's headed but surely from an independent media wouldn't you expect at least one commentator to call it down?

Everyone is just towing the party line. Kind of irresponsible given the last crash. But I guess it's not as threatening because the entire economy isn't underpinned by property this time.

Bob24

L'Enfer du Nord wrote: »

In simple terms average property prices are either going up or down.

Even this is not that simple, since as opposed to serious observers most journalists don't look at the number themselves and possibly don't quite understand (or conveniently ignore) the fact that they are often looking at very different indicators (some more reliable than others) which have been cherrypicked to delivered the right message.

A simple "Going up" message in the indo can mean many things and is usually not directly comparable to the previous one. Maybe once it was MoM and the next time it is YoY. Once it was based on the PPR and the next time it is based on the CSO. Once it was for Dublin and now it is nationwide, etc.

And even when massaging all objective indicators is not giving the result you are looking for, then you can always look at average asking prices on Daft.

Lastly, the nuclear option if everything else has failed you: the market sentiment as reported by "our network of estate agents" (the most unbiased people to talk about property prices).

slowjoe17

alastair wrote: »

Agreed. The recent growth stemmed from an extremely constricted supply meeting increased demand. 20% YOY growth is neither achievable, nor desirable. Some level of growth (single digit) is to be expected in our context however - even with controlled lending.

What would be the upper and lower bounds on your 95% confidence interval for the year ending 2015-12-31, then?

alastair

slowjoe17 wrote: »

What would be the upper and lower bounds on your 95% confidence interval for the year ending 2015-12-31, then?

I like to constrain myself to sensible predictions, so my confidence levels on a 10-20% drop not happening this year (or next) are well above the 95% mark. I expect so see slight growth this year, and no more than single digit growth next year. For reasons I've already outlined.

slowjoe17

alastair wrote: »

I like to constrain myself to sensible predictions, so my confidence levels on a 10-20% drop not happening this year (or next) are well above the 95% mark. I expect so see slight growth this year, and no more than single digit growth next year. For reasons I've already outlined.

That isn't an answer to the question asked.

So my 95% confidence interval for 2015 would be -12% to +3%

Can you give similar upper and lower bounds?

gaius c

alastair wrote: »

Again - not entirely serious, but January is a tad before last week, so I think the IT have had their finger on the pulse all along: http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/forecasting-the-market-what-s-in-store-for-property-in-2015-1.2064439

Aye but they still expected growth, just at a lower level than 2014. It's starting to look a distinct possibility that we will actually have a decline in transaction volume.

gosplan

slowjoe17 wrote: »

That isn't an answer to the question asked.

So my 95% confidence interval for 2015 would be -12% to +3%

Can you give similar upper and lower bounds?

So in your head, 19 out of 20 times it's between those two values?

slowjoe17

gosplan wrote: »

So in your head, 19 out of 20 times it's between those two values?

Yeah. Might lift the upper end to 5%.

alastair

gaius c wrote: »

Aye but they still expected growth, just at a lower level than 2014. It's starting to look a distinct possibility that we will actually have a decline in transaction volume.

They weren't predicting transaction volume though - they were making a call on the price index. We're still in a price growth stage, albeit a reduced level of growth from the craziness of 2014. All it'll take is a reasonable performance for the autumn to see that growth through to year's end. So, they've been right so far.

gosplan

slowjoe17 wrote: »

Yeah. Might lift the upper end to 5%.

Or just call it 90%?

slowjoe17

gosplan wrote: »

Or just call it 90%?

Alastair repeats that he expects low-single figure this year.

I'd like to know what the lower bound he puts on that it.

I think it's a perfectly reasonable question, although he doesn't appear keen to answer it.

alastair

slowjoe17 wrote: »

Alastair repeats that he expects low-single figure this year.

I'd like to know what the lower bound he puts on that it.

I think it's a perfectly reasonable question, although he doesn't appear keen to answer it.

Given your rather 'flexible' confidence levels, I'd have to say this isn't a measure that's really much use to anyone. I'm happy enough with the answer I gave, cheers.

johnp001

Latest unemployment statistics show unemployment marginally up in July.
It is the first increase since January 2014.

Monthly Unemployment July 2015

alastair

alastair wrote: »

These aren't just rates for switchers though - they're available to all their borrowers - good, bad, and indifferent. They wouldn't offer them at rates below variable, if they didn't think it was advantageous to them. Clearly they expect the variable to fall in the mid term.

AIB to drop standard variable rate by 0.25% from October.
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0807/719705-aib-to-cut-standard-variable-mortgage-rates/

cmssjone

alastair wrote: »

AIB to drop standard variable rate by 0.25% from October.
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0807/719705-aib-to-cut-standard-variable-mortgage-rates/

How quick/slow will the other banks respond to this decrease, if at all?

johnp001

we believe that the macro-prudential measures introduced by the Central Bank of Ireland (CBI) are likely to have a material dampening effect on house prices and mortgage lending in 2015.

AIB 2015 Half-Yearly Financial Report

gaius c

Murphy Mullan have announced that Sally Grove has sold out.

fret_wimp2

gaius c wrote: »

Sallygrove is a bit of a mess indeed. A quick drive around the area will explain the reason why they will be hard to sell. Plus the fact that the 3 beds are fairly small and that the ugly red brick frontage just screams "CHEAP".



http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/new-3-4-bed-homes-sallygrove-ballycullen-tallaght-dublin-24/3180581

Hard sell! Il just leave this here!

Just goes to show that the market is extreemly unpredictable & half this thread is garbage, when someone such as gaius who has a half decent handle on figures can get it so wrong in a very short time frame.

seamus

There were only six properties in Sally Grove. Someone looking to get close to a nice area probably felt like they were getting a relatively big property at a good price.
I feel sorry for anyone who actually does buy there, the travellers 100m down the road in Daletree Place are big trouble and have been for the last 10/15 years. Constant dumping, roaming stray dogs, anti-social behaviour, petty crime. The residents of that area are driven demented by it, and these houses will be right next to it.

gaius c

fret_wimp2 wrote: »

Hard sell! Il just leave this here!

Just goes to show that the market is extreemly unpredictable & half this thread is garbage, when someone such as gaius who has a half decent handle on figures can get it so wrong in a very short time frame.

I'm on the cancellation list!:P

McGrath5

I was keeping an eye on a house for sale in my area.
It popped up on the register in April, but has now come up again as been sold for an extra €60k, anybody ever seen this?

seamus

I've seen a few quick flips happen like this; someone buying a wreck in a relatively decent area at a knockdown price, sinking €30-40k into doing the minimal amount of work necessary and then reselling again at twice the original price.

Interesting though that it was April, doesn't seem long enough for that kind of quick slae. Are you sure the register just wasn't corrected for that sale in April? Sometimes mistakes are made and then they correct the entry in the register. If you have an auto-alert set up, you'll get alerted twice for that property.

gaius c

Could be a sale within the family.

McGrath5

Here is the property in question, make of it what you will.

slowjoe17

gaius c wrote: »

Could be a sale within the family.

Plausible.

Could be a stroke pulled by an estate agent selling to a friend, as well.

The_Conductor

McGrath5 wrote: »

Here is the property in question, make of it what you will.

Remarkable price, all things considered- I hope the seller gave the estate agent a nice present......... 389k seems considerably higher than I would have thought possible.

gaius c

slowjoe17 wrote: »

Plausible.

Could be a stroke pulled by an estate agent selling to a friend, as well.

Risky considering solicitors fees, stamp duty, etc.

Roger McAllen

seamus wrote: »

There were only six properties in Sally Grove. Someone looking to get close to a nice area probably felt like they were getting a relatively big property at a good price.
I feel sorry for anyone who actually does buy there, the travellers 100m down the road in Daletree Place are big trouble and have been for the last 10/15 years. Constant dumping, roaming stray dogs, anti-social behaviour, petty crime. The residents of that area are driven demented by it, and these houses will be right next to it.

Bit of a contrast to the estate agents description. I'm in stitches reading it, after reading your post and looking at the street view of the estate you mentioned.

Nestling in the foothills of the Dublin mountain's, Sally Grove perfectly balances peace and tranquility with a location that is convenient to all necessary amenities and transport links.

Sally Grove is an exclusive gated development of just six houses situated in a most quiet cul de sac within the mature and highly sought after Ballycullan development.

lol

Roger McAllen

Daletree Place - What the absolute f**k !!? I can't post links but go to street view of this estate on google maps, there is a car on the right in someones drive covered in..........wtf .. red paint??

Plenty of vans, trailers, caravans, and a horsebox too for good measure.