Property Market 2015

headtheball14

Mumha wrote: »

Does anyone have a take on the numbers of properties for sale in the Glasheen, Wilton, Bandon Road, Magazine Road areas of Cork City ? I would have thought quite a few look like they were already rented properties, and if that was the case, why would landlords be selling now, when the rents are rising ? Certainly there are a lot of For Sale properties in the immediate area of UCC.

In my case my landlord decided it was too much hassle with water charges property taxes etc. I also strongly suspect he wasn't declaring the income fully and was worried with all the new data held that he would be caught for tax in the near future.

Alter_Ego

Anyone else finding the statistics available for the Irish property market are largely useless?

The property price register doesn't have the type of dwelling (other than new/second hand), the number of bedrooms/bathrooms, or the size. So all you know is that something sold for that amount of money on that date.

Than you're off to google/streetview to find out what it was , and it gets pretty laborious and boring quickly.

Shedite27

When I look at houses I use it for
(a) seeing if any similar houses in the area sold recently and if so for how much. In housing estates they give a good indication
(b) for houses I viewed I like to see retrospectively how much they went for

It's a useful tool when you're looking for something precise IMO.

gosplan

Hearing a lot about investors heading elsewhere as we're not at rock bottom anymore. They got a nice little 15% gain and now their money is better placed elsewhere.

The improving economy and the odd ex-pat returning from Dubai with a suitcase of cash may be enough to balance the impact of the CB's new regs but surely if outside investment and all those cash sales drop off, the Dublin market's headed down.

handlemaster

gosplan wrote: »

Hearing a lot about investors heading elsewhere as we're not at rock bottom anymore. They got a nice little 15% gain and now their money is better placed elsewhere.

The improving economy and the odd ex-pat returning from Dubai with a suitcase of cash may be enough to balance the impact of the CB's new regs but surely if outside investment and all those cash sales drop off, the Dublin market's headed down.

Where will the workers and new starter families live ? The economy has improved prices in dublin will remain stable for now. Perhaps up and down a little but no major movement. Rents on the other hand will keeping moving up

The_Conductor

handlemaster wrote: »

Where will the workers and new starter families live ? The economy has improved prices in dublin will remain stable for now. Perhaps up and down a little but no major movement. Rents on the other hand will keeping moving up

I honestly have no idea where rents are going to go- most small scale landlords don't even want to let property anymore- taxation and other policies have made being a landlord so onerous- that most would rather sell and jump- pretty much at any cost.

Add to this- the lenders are repossessing BTL property at an accelerated rate- over 350 orders were recently granted in week 14 of the judicial calendar (thats just one week).

Yet- at the same time- we're not building property- its defacto ceased- construction unemployment rates are on the rise again- and its increasingly difficult to borrow.

There are pressure points all over the place- trying to measure which factor is going to trump the other factors- may as well be pulling straws.

We need new policies, legislation and a thoroughly rejuvenated PRTB- asap- we don't need feasability studies etc- we need actions- and immediate actions.

farrerg

The_Conductor wrote: »

Yet- at the same time- we're not building property- its defacto ceased- construction unemployment rates are on the rise again- and its increasingly difficult to borrow.

Have any substantial new developments started in the last 6 months around Dublin? Or that will launch in the next 6?
I was trying to think of any new builds that have begun since the rules came in and all I could think of was rokeby, the rest would have been started last year. With such constrained supply, I just can't see prices falling

Alter_Ego

farrerg wrote: »

Have any substantial new developments started in the last 6 months around Dublin? Or that will launch in the next 6?
I was trying to think of any new builds that have begun since the rules came in and all I could think of was rokeby, the rest would have been started last year. With such constrained supply, I just can't see prices falling

Is the supply really that constrained though? How many of these actually ready to buy can say "there is nothing out there that I would put my money in"?

Bob24

Alter_Ego wrote: »

Is the supply really that constrained though? How many of these actually ready to buy can say "there is nothing out there that I would put my money in"?

For quality housing in Dublin I think it is.

It might be due to the combination of people rushing to use their pre CBI rule approvals until June and the fact that not much new supply is coming during the summer though. I was talking to an agent yesterday who said she has many buyers but not much to show to them, and for what it is worth she said she was expecting a good number of new properties in the coming weeks.

handlemaster

http://m.independent.ie/business/irish/mortgage-caps-hit-dublin-house-price-growth-31470130.html

I think supply has increased going by daft thats secondhand sales. I note Gunnes are saying that btl investors are selling more

gaius c

Alter_Ego wrote: »

Is the supply really that constrained though? How many of these actually ready to buy can say "there is nothing out there that I would put my money in"?

That's the kind of thinking that led to folk buying one bed apartments just to get on the ladder.

johnp001

handlemaster wrote: »

http://m.independent.ie/business/irish/mortgage-caps-hit-dublin-house-price-growth-31470130.html

I think supply has increased going by daft thats secondhand sales. I note Gunnes are saying that btl investors are selling more

Gunne's also predicted stabilisation in this report published in 2007
Gunne Property Market report

Dun Laoghaire: a more stable housing market is expected.

Terenure: an increase in supply in the D6, D12, D14 and D16 areas which is resulting in a stabilisation in price increases

Naas: Prices have stabilised

This report predicted growth in a lot of the other areas it mentions.

Alter_Ego

gaius c wrote: »

That's the kind of thinking that led to folk buying one bed apartments just to get on the ladder.

Don't see how you arrived at this conclusion? I've simply asked a question 'is there nothing out there'?

I think most people just want to get on with their life at this stage, getting on the ladder has proven to yield pretty poor result for many.

Jet Black

Looking to buy something sub 150k at the moment decided to look in Finglas. I've lived in Finglas all my live so know the areas I'd be happy with living. Thought it wouldn't be too hard plenty of places around in my budget but it looks like I was wrong.

First place I looked at was 135k, only worth 120k max imo. Sitting room was the size of the back of a hiace and the kitchen was twice as big so needed at very least an extension in one direction. Small two bed. Open viewing attracted a steady stream of viewers and the agent had an offer of 145k in 5 minutes. That was the end of that.

Second place was up for 170k this was a few doors up from the house above. On the market 6 months no offers. Place needed a good bit of work at least 20-30k. Very small two bed again. Offered 130 and heard nothing back. As I was leaving asked the estate agent about a house he had 5 minutes away also in Finglas . Was up for 150k current bid is 180k. OK..

Third place was up for 95k small two bed again. Needed a good bit of work done. Kitchen ripped out and not replaced. Wires hanging from the ceiling. Open viewing was jammed and in a week it's 125k and rising by the day. I can see it getting close to 150k. 6 bidders on this. Estate agent had another open viewing yesterday as if there wasn't enough interest

Last place I looked at was a bit over priced considering the area isn't great. I'd personally consider it a no go area but a friend dragged me along. Was up a couple of days and on entering EA said it had an offer of asking. Bit surprised again because of the area and the house needed a good bit of work done.

So my conclusion is that anything sub 150k and growing anywhere in Dublin will be gone over the next few months. Doesn't seem to matter how bad the area or property is. People are taking the lower amount they can borrow and getting what they can with it.

farrerg

Alter_Ego wrote: »

Don't see how you arrived at this conclusion? I've simply asked a question 'is there nothing out there'?

I think most people just want to get on with their life at this stage, getting on the ladder has proven to yield pretty poor result for many.

My experience is that there is very little of good quality, and whatever does come up is gone very quickly. But I suppose it depends what you're looking for. I'm not willing to look at a house less than a certain size unless there is scope to extend, but someone else with no kids might not have the same concerns

handlemaster

Jet Black wrote: »

Looking to buy something sub 150k at the moment decided to look in Finglas. I've lived in Finglas all my live so know the areas I'd be happy with living. Thought it wouldn't be too hard plenty of places around in my budget but it looks like I was wrong.

First place I looked at was 135k, only worth 120k max imo. Sitting room was the size of the back of a hiace and the kitchen was twice as big so needed at very least an extension in one direction. Small two bed. Open viewing attracted a steady stream of viewers and the agent had an offer of 145k in 5 minutes. That was the end of that.

Second place was up for 170k this was a few doors up from the house above. On the market 6 months no offers. Place needed a good bit of work at least 20-30k. Very small two bed again. Offered 130 and heard nothing back. As I was leaving asked the estate agent about a house he had 5 minutes away also in Finglas . Was up for 150k current bid is 180k. OK..

Third place was up for 95k small two bed again. Needed a good bit of work done. Kitchen ripped out and not replaced. Wires hanging from the ceiling. Open viewing was jammed and in a week it's 125k and rising by the day. I can see it getting close to 150k. 6 bidders on this. Estate agent had another open viewing yesterday as if there wasn't enough interest

Last place I looked at was a bit over priced considering the area isn't great. I'd personally consider it a no go area but a friend dragged me along. Was up a couple of days and on entering EA said it had an offer of asking. Bit surprised again because of the area and the house needed a good bit of work done.

So my conclusion is that anything sub 150k and growing anywhere in Dublin will be gone over the next few months. Doesn't seem to matter how bad the area or property is. People are taking the lower amount they can borrow and getting what they can with it.

i take it you were looking around dunsink area . Is there really that level of demand there ?

The_Conductor

handlemaster wrote: »

i take it you were looking around dunsink area . Is there really that level of demand there ?

At the prices the poster is suggesting- yes. Its more a lack of supply though- than an inherently high demand in the area.

leinsterdude

Looks like there will be plenty of people looking further out now, Kildare especially, Drogheda, etc etc.....much better value, and the roads in are busy but move well these days....

Jet Black

handlemaster wrote: »

i take it you were looking around dunsink area . Is there really that level of demand there ?

Yes. EA just rang about that one. At least 3 people interested and its up to 137500. From an asking of 135k.

Bob24

A good one from McWilliams on land availability in Dublin and the way public institution's conflicting priorities are leading the government to favour speculative land grabbing rather than building: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2015/08/24/hands-up-who-wants-to-make-dublin-more-liveable

gaius c

Alter_Ego wrote: »

Don't see how you arrived at this conclusion? I've simply asked a question 'is there nothing out there'?

I think most people just want to get on with their life at this stage, getting on the ladder has proven to yield pretty poor result for many.

You're suggesting that buyers' expectations are too high and that those expectations should be revised lower.

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

Archaeoliz

I think this is going to have some impact on house prices, but how much I wouldn't like to guess:

http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/aug/24/global-stocks-sell-off-deepens-as-panic-grips-markets-live

I'd like to say it's a blip but China has been struggling for a while now.

OfflerCrocGod

I think the US slowing will have a far greater effect on Ireland then the Chinese stock market. I wouldn't be surprised if part of the sell off was due to the impending Fed rate rise.

johnp001

London property is now a 'bubble', claims top analyst

UK commercial and residential property values are in bubble territory again and vulnerable to any tightening in credit markets, according to Mike Prew, an analyst at Jefferies Group.

"The last time REITs were this good they needed rights issues nine months later,"

Bob24

OfflerCrocGod wrote: »

I think the US slowing will have a far greater effect on Ireland then the Chinese stock market. I wouldn't be surprised if part of the sell off was due to the impending Fed rate rise.

Agreed the Chinese situation won't have a direct effect, but maybe a moderate indirect effect?

For example on the topic you mentioned, the Fed could be wary of further contagions from the Chinese market to the Western ones as we say yesterday, and delay its rate rise to support US markets.

OfflerCrocGod

The Fed's job isn't to prop up the S&P. We had another large sell off in China today and the drops in the DMs were much smaller (v. positive in Europe). The Chinese market won't stop the Fed, Asian deflation is another matter though. I can see another wave of deflation heading our way as the Asian economies resort to their favourite demand sucking export activities.

Their currencies are going down and they all need jobs (especially important in China). Commodities and Asian currencies are down that's going to make it hard to see strong inflation in the next year or more. Inflation expectations are very low in the US, so low I can see the Fed holding off on a rate rise.

johnp001

Residential Property Prices rise by 0.9% in July

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draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Is that a standard wage for a couple? Seems awfully low.

Michael D Not Higgins

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Is that a standard wage for a couple? Seems awfully low.

50k was often cited as the average household income, but I think that was nationally, and Dublin would likely be higher.