Property Market 2015

alastair

The_Conductor wrote: »

Originally Posted by alastair
No we wouldn't - as you've already pointed out. It'll take additional drops over the next 5 months to push us into 12 month negative territory. Just no increases leaves us in positive territory. As it stands, the cumulative requirement of the 5 remaining 2014 months, and the remaining 5 2015 months would have to combine to cancel out that 10.7% growth.

We don't have long to wait for the July figures.
You are utterly unconvinced- I guess there is no point in my labouring the statistics- you're going to take from them what you will- regardless of what I or other posters say.
Lets wait and see how they pan out.

Well, the July figures seem to put paid to the notion of an accelerating downward trend, and make the possibility of a YoY negative that less probable.

The_Conductor

alastair wrote: »

Well, the July figures seem to put paid to the notion of an accelerating downward trend, and make the possibility of a YoY negative that less probable.

From the notes:

2015 RPI Base 1 month 3 month Annual
(Jan 2005)
January 82.2 -1.9 -1.8 21.6
February 81.6 -0.7 -2.4 21.4
March 82.5 1.1 -1.6 22.8
April 83.3 1.0 1.3 20.2
May 83.2 -0.1 2.0 15.2
June 82.9 -0.4 0.5 11.1
July 83.5 0.7 0.2 9.0

From an annualised price rise of 21.6% in Jan- we are down to 9% and falling.
The monthly figure- is a weighted average of actual mortgage drawdowns alongside an absolute average of the 2 preceding months.

The average price rise is continuing to drop- and the last of the pre-new rule drawdowns have now been accounted for (in early August).

The_Conductor

I'll try and sort that into a table later when I'm at a computer- mobile site doesn't let me do it........ Essentially- annual increase fell from 11.1 in June to 9.0 in July- and is continuing its trend based on prelim August figures.

alastair

The_Conductor wrote: »

From the notes:

1. 2015 RPI Base 1 month 3 month Annual
2. (Jan 2005)
3. January 82.2 -1.9 -1.8 21.6
4. February 81.6 -0.7 -2.4 21.4
5. March 82.5 1.1 -1.6 22.8
6. April 83.3 1.0 1.3 20.2
7. May 83.2 -0.1 2.0 15.2
8. June 82.9 -0.4 0.5 11.1
9. July 83.5 0.7 0.2 9.0

From an annualised price rise of 21.6% in Jan- we are down to 9% and falling.
The monthly figure- is a weighted average of actual mortgage drawdowns alongside an absolute average of the 2 preceding months.

The average price rise is continuing to drop- and the last of the pre-new rule drawdowns have now been accounted for (in early August).

Month on month increase. Check.
Year on year increase. Check.

We're still in a scenario where additional monthly price falls are required to push us into YoY negative territory by end of 2015. That was the case last month, and now we have one extra month of growth. It's not me who's 'unconvinced' by the figures it seems.

The_Conductor

alastair wrote: »

Month on month increase. Check.
Year on year increase. Check.

We're still in a scenario where additional monthly price falls are required to push us into YoY negative territory by end of 2015. That was the case last month, and now we have one extra month of growth. It's not me who's 'unconvinced' by the figures it seems.

Add them up- if its '0' every single month for the rest of the year- it'll be -0.3 for the year as a whole- if you're using the 3 month smoothed stats- -1.8%

castle2012

Interesting stats , Same happened last year sluggish start then prices moved forward ,

gaius c

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Is that a standard wage for a couple? Seems awfully low.

Nearly half of households in the country earn less than that.

Rew

Irish Times coverage:

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/property-prices-rise-again-in-july-despite-lending-curbs-1.2329234

alastair

The_Conductor wrote: »

Add them up- if its '0' every single month for the rest of the year- it'll be -0.3 for the year as a whole- if you're using the 3 month smoothed stats- -1.8%

And you've mysteriously switched from the national figures that were under discussion, to Dublin figures. Strange that.

National figures:

2015
January 80.3 -1.4 -0.5 15.5
February 80.0 -0.4 -1.4 14.9
March 80.7 0.9 -0.9 16.8
April 81.2 0.6 1.1 15.8
May 81.6 0.5 2.0 13.8
June 81.7 0.1 1.2 10.7
July 82.4 0.9 1.5 9.4

Bob24

Just the raw numbers:

Dublin in Jan 2015: 82.2
Dublin in July 2015: 83.5

=> 1.6% increase YTD

Nationwide in Jan 2015: 80.3
Nationwide in July 2015: 82.4

=> 2.6% increase YTD


So if the rest of the year was to be completely flat with stabilised prices, we would be looking at modest price rises for 2015 (vs the 15-20% we got last year).

To see the same price rises in 2015 as what we had in 2014, the rest of the year would have to be crazy with 3-4% monthly increase on average for the rest of the year.

alastair

Bob24 wrote: »

To see the same price rises in 2015 as what we had in 2014, the rest of the year would have to be crazy with 3-4% monthly increase on average for the rest of the year.

Indeed - but no-one was suggesting that (that I noticed in any case). The question was would the 2015 YoY outcome be positive or negative overall. Last month it would have required monthly falls to result in that happening. The same is true this month, but rather than the downward trend some said was evident, we've a monthly increase to make that negative YoY outcome less likely.

Bob24

alastair wrote: »

Indeed - but no-one was suggesting that (that I noticed in any case). The question was would the 2015 YoY outcome be positive or negative overall. Last month it would have required monthly falls to result in that happening. The same is true this month, but rather than the downward trend some said was evident, we've a monthly increase to make that negative YoY outcome less likely.

Sure, I just meant to say there is no way 2015 will be nearly as intense as 2014 - I don't assume anyone is expecting 20% increase at this stage.

Reasonably speaking and keeping an open mind both ways, Dublin will probably be somewhere between -2% and +6%.

If I had to make a guess I would say +1% in 2015 (meaning slight drop between now to the end of the year), but I'm not betting any money on my prediction! :-)

johnp001

Michael D Not Higgins wrote: »

50k was often cited as the average household income, but I think that was nationally, and Dublin would likely be higher.

Depends on the exact definition.
CSO has stats on this (latest available are 2013) at Household Finance and Consumption Survey
which states €538/week or under €28k a year as average gross household income.
(probably not massive change since then according to:Earnings and Labour Costs
which is showing very flat earnings growth YoY)
In the context of purchasing power in the housing market household income excluding those whose main income is pension or DSP payments would be more relevant but I don't know where to find figures that evaluate this. There is also an argument to be made that median is more relevant a measure than average.

Michael D Not Higgins

johnp001 wrote: »

Depends on the exact definition.
CSO has stats on this (latest available are 2013) at Household Finance and Consumption Survey
which states €538/week or under €28k a year as average gross household income.
(probably not massive change since then according to:Earnings and Labour Costs
which is showing very flat earnings growth YoY)
In the context of purchasing power in the housing market household income excluding those whose main income is pension or DSP payments would be more relevant but I don't know where to find figures that evaluate this. There is also an argument to be made that median is more relevant a measure than average.

This is likely out of date as well
http://www.thejournal.ie/readme/high-earner-ireland-755580-Jan2013/
56% of households below 50k.

Greyian

Bob24 wrote: »

Just the raw numbers:

Dublin in Jan 2015: 82.2
Dublin in July 2015: 83.5

=> 1.6% increase YTD

Nationwide in Jan 2015: 80.3
Nationwide in July 2015: 82.4

=> 2.6% increase YTD


So if the rest of the year was to be completely flat with stabilised prices, we would be looking at modest price rises for 2015 (vs the 15-20% we got last year).

To see the same price rises in 2015 as what we had in 2014, the rest of the year would have to be crazy with 3-4% monthly increase on average for the rest of the year.

Just on this, it makes more sense to use December 2014 figures as your start figures, as they would more closely represent the end of December 2014 (i.e. the beginning of January 2015).

As an illustration, if you had prices of €100 in December Year 1, which fell to €90 in January Year 2, before climbing up to €95 in December Year 2, it would be false to suggest prices rose €5 over the last 12 months, when really they fell €5.

This would give us figures as follows:
National December 2014: 81.4
National July 2015: 82.4
1.2% price growth in 2015

Dublin December 2014: 83.8
Dublin July 2015: 83.5
0.4% price fall in 2015

Bob24

Greyian wrote: »

Just on this, it makes more sense to use December 2014 figures as your start figures, as they would more closely represent the end of December 2014 (i.e. the beginning of January 2015).

I'd say neither way is perfect as the CSO figures are not a snapshot at the end of the month (not possible to do) but an average for the month (maybe moving average).

Your calculation would probably be an approximation of the change from mid-December to date, while mine would be mid-January to date.

The actual figure is somewhere in between :-)

SSLguru

Wouldn't be buying now if my life depended on it , it's clearly going to crash within the next year or two.

<snip> has a very short memory

handlemaster

SSLguru wrote: »

Wouldn't be buying now if my life depended on it , it's clearly going to crash within the next year or two.

<snip> has a very short memory

LOL . How much are you paying rent per year ?

Greyian

Bob24 wrote: »

I'd say neither way is perfect as the CSO figures are not a snapshot at the end of the month (not possible to do) but an average for the month (maybe moving average).

Your calculation would probably be an approximation of the change from mid-December to date, while mine would be mid-January to date.

The actual figure is somewhere in between :-)

Surely though the figure you'll use at the end of the year with be the December 2015 figure, so the correct figure to compare against would be the December 2014 figure, not January 2015?

SSLguru

Have a deposit saved up years ago so I'm just binding my time

Don't mind paying rent for the next few years as once the crash happens my deposit will go alot further

OfflerCrocGod

SSLguru wrote: »

Wouldn't be buying now if my life depended on it , it's clearly going to crash within the next year or two.

<snip> has a very short memory

A crash seems unlikely. It would have to be down to external forces as I see no internal reason for a sudden, sharp, large drop in prices. I think what's more likely is moderate price movements down or up over the next two years. Prices have moved very little since October last year, so in a matter of months those 10%+ yearly increase figures will disappear.

It will be all about dull single figure movements, won't sell many newspapers...

SSLguru

Is it against the law to have investment property ?

brownbeard

OfflerCrocGod wrote: »

in a matter of months those 10%+ yearly increase figures will disappear.

As of today, that's already happened.

alastair

SSLguru wrote: »

Is it against the law to have investment property ?

Ah right - the 'investment property' in Clonee you "live in", while you seemingly pay rent on a residential property elsewhere? There should be a law against BS of the highest order for sure.

Bob24

Greyian wrote: »

Surely though the figure you'll use at the end of the year with be the December 2015 figure, so the correct figure to compare against would be the December 2014 figure, not January 2015?

Well December to December or January to January, both work (first one will be 15 days early, second one will be 15 days late).

Villa05

handlemaster wrote:

LOL . How much are you paying rent per year ?

High rents trap caught a lot of people from 2002 to 2006, people are a little wiser to this now.
The more people that are renting the more likely it is to become a hot political issue in the future. Not just renters but there extended families also.

Villa05

OfflerCrocGod wrote:

A crash seems unlikely. It would have to be down to external forces as I see no internal reason for a sudden, sharp, large drop in prices. I think what's more likely is moderate price movements down or up over the next two years. Prices have moved very little since October last year, so in a matter of months those 10%+ yearly increase figures will disappear.

Internal
A crash is always likely in a market that has seen double digit percentage changes almosy every year since 1996. Its a broken hyper market.

External
Serious rumblings of another international banking crisis. The banks that delved into subprime have since got into lending into the once booming commodities companies. The collapse in price of these commodities present the fear that these companies will be unable to repay there loans and go bust

athtrasna

Villa05 wrote: »

High rents trap caught a lot of people from 2002 to 2006, people are a little wiser to this now.
The more people that are renting the more likely it is to become a hot political issue in the future. Not just renters but there extended families also.

If you want to discuss politics please take it to the politics forum.

johnp001

johnp001 wrote: »

Depends on the exact definition.
CSO has stats on this (latest available are 2013) at Household Finance and Consumption Survey
which states €538/week or under €28k a year as average gross household income.
(probably not massive change since then according to:Earnings and Labour Costs
which is showing very flat earnings growth YoY)
In the context of purchasing power in the housing market household income excluding those whose main income is pension or DSP payments would be more relevant but I don't know where to find figures that evaluate this. There is also an argument to be made that median is more relevant a measure than average.

Latest CSO figures for
Earnings and Labour Costs Quarterly
out today show earnings down 1.8% QoQ (biggest decrease in construction sector)

johnp001

johnp001 wrote: »

Latest CSO figures for
Earnings and Labour Costs Quarterly
out today show earnings down 1.8% QoQ (biggest decrease in construction sector)

Hard to know what to take from that. On the one hand, a drop in earnings obviously means less money in the economy and, presumably, less cash for buying houses. On the other hand, I'd prefer if there was more activity in the construction sector - if they don't build more houses the supply problem will not be fixed!