Greek Government Collapses - Snap General Election Called

kenmccarthy

Well, how's it going to go on sunday????
If left is elected....what's the next move??interesting few weeks ahead

Sierra Oscar

kenmccarthy wrote: »

Well, how's it going to go on sunday????
If left is elected....what's the next move??interesting few weeks ahead

Syriza have pulled ahead in the polls as we approach the last few hours of campaigning. They stand at around 33.5% in the opinion polls now.

kenmccarthy

Looking like an outright majority for syriza!!!!!!!
Possibly 151 out of 300 seats!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
When our boyos said " frankfurts way or labour's way" they caved in within days of getting elected..............interesting to see what syriza can negotiate......they wont cave to the bankers at the first hurdle

hmmm

Great news - a free money tree party will be elected, it will be fascinating to see whether they can figure out how to keep paying themselves more than they earn without relying on borrowing.

Uncle Ben

hmmm wrote: »

Great news - a free money tree party will be elected, it will be fascinating to see whether they can figure out how to keep paying themselves more than they earn without relying on borrowing.

It's gas. The EU is in the **** for the past 8 years because of right wing Govts.

conorh91

Syriza are expected to be two seats short of an absolute majority, according to the BBC.

Fantastic news for Ireland, and a crushing day for Sinn Fein, now that their policies and their kindred politicians are about to be utterly discredited.

Good loser

I see Sinn Fein are trying to piggyback on any Greek deal to get a 'deal' for Irish debt. They urge a debt conference.

If they feel that generous towards the Greeks (I'm sure any number of countries are worse off) why don't they suggest that Ireland abandon any claims for Debt Relief if the Greeks are bailed out.

duckcfc

conorh91 wrote: »

Syriza are expected to be two seats short of an absolute majority, according to the BBC.

Fantastic news for Ireland, and a crushing day for Sinn Fein, now that their policies and their kindred politicians are about to be utterly discredited.

How?

For Reals

conorh91 wrote: »

Syriza are expected to be two seats short of an absolute majority, according to the BBC.

Fantastic news for Ireland, and a crushing day for Sinn Fein, now that their policies and their kindred politicians are about to be utterly discredited.

Good loser wrote: »

I see Sinn Fein are trying to piggyback on any Greek deal to get a 'deal' for Irish debt. They urge a debt conference.

If they feel that generous towards the Greeks (I'm sure any number of countries are worse off) why don't they suggest that Ireland abandon any claims for Debt Relief if the Greeks are bailed out.

Now I'm confused. Can some bright spark from Fine Gael/Fianna Fail tell me why I should fear the Shinners today, and which postulating post above is the correct one to stoke the deflection fire from our actual governments, previous or current?

conorh91

duckcfc wrote: »

How?

Because Syriza will either capitulate on their values, or Greece will return to the drachma. Either Syriza are ruined, or Greece is.

Either way, it discredits the irresponsible, populist parties in European politics.

Either way, the experiment fails.

If Irish people see the experiment failing, they'll hopefully avoid repeating the experiment, and this can only be good for economic growth and stability in this country.

karma_

conorh91 wrote: »

Because Syriza will either capitulate on their values, or Greece will return to the drachma. Either Syriza are ruined, or Greece is.

Either way, it discredits the irresponsible, populist parties in European politics.

Either way, the experiment fails.

If Irish people see the experiment failing, they'll hopefully avoid repeating the experiment, and this can only be good for economic growth and stability in this country.

Some amount of doom merchants up in arms over who Greece decided to democratically elect, and you hope they fail... for if they succeed, it will come as such a shock to your system, well you may never recover from it.

Quin_Dub

karma_ wrote: »

Some amount of doom merchants up in arms over who Greece decided to democratically elect, and you hope they fail... for if they succeed, it will come as such a shock to your system, well you may never recover from it.

The collapse is already starting

Tsipras’s Debt Plan Sends Athens Stock Market Sliding

Syriza simply cannot deliver what they got elected to do - They cannot get a deal on their debt AND cut taxes , increase minimum wages and re-hire all the public service people.

The markets see this , which is why money is leaving Greece at an accelerating rate and the cost of borrowing has spiked and will stay there indefinitely...

karma_

Quin_Dub wrote: »

The collapse is already starting

Tsipras’s Debt Plan Sends Athens Stock Market Sliding

Syriza simply cannot deliver what they got elected to do - They cannot get a deal on their debt AND cut taxes , increase minimum wages and re-hire all the public service people.

The markets see this , which is why money is leaving Greece at an accelerating rate and the cost of borrowing has spiked and will stay there indefinitely...

I have no doubt that there are invested parties who will carry out economic war against a democratically elected government, wouldn't be the first time. I wish Syriza well and I hope they can succeed.

BoJack Horseman

karma_ wrote: »

I hope they can succeed.

What magic do the Syriza supporters anticipate will be used to ensure success?

There must be something that creates success from fixing a debt crisis by going back to deficit & creating even more debt!

karma_

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

What magic do the Syriza supporters anticipate will be used to ensure success?

There must be something that creates success from fixing a debt crisis by going back to deficit & creating even more debt!

I think it would be wiser to reserve judgement and see how they get on, it's not as it a bunch of lads in clown suits were elected, they are clever people and I'm especially impressed with the new finance minister, I like a lot of what I hear from him.

Perhaps this approach is not suitable for some though, those who just repeat the 'markets' mantra over and over, which would be grand if the 'markets' didn't act like a terrified kitten every time something happens they don't like the look of.

Quin_Dub

karma_ wrote: »

I think it would be wiser to reserve judgement and see how they get on, it's not as it a bunch of lads in clown suits were elected, they are clever people and I'm especially impressed with the new finance minister, I like a lot of what I hear from him.

Perhaps this approach is not suitable for some though, those who just repeat the 'markets' mantra over and over, which would be grand if the 'markets' didn't act like a terrified kitten every time something happens they don't like the look of.

Agreed , the people I've seen and heard from Syriza seem to speak knowledgeably and don't sound like the typical neck-beards , but there has to be Quid Pro Quo though...

Greece can't keep looking for concessions and more money without doing something in return.

Their economy (more specifically Government expenditure & Revenue collection) is fundamentally flawed. They can't just not fix that and expect everybody else to just smile and nod and open their wallets

BoJack Horseman

karma_ wrote: »

I think it would be wiser to reserve judgement and see how they get on, it's not as it a bunch of lads in clown suits were elected,

I'll reserve judgement on that too!

they are clever people and I'm especially impressed with the new finance minister, I like a lot of what I hear from him.

Aside from re-hiring some cleaning ladies & cancelling a port sale to China, he hasn't done anything.

Perhaps this approach is not suitable for some though, those who just repeat the 'markets' mantra over and over, which would be grand if the 'markets' didn't act like a terrified kitten every time something happens they don't like the look of.

Markets assess risk, and they hedge for that risk.

No point asking them not to do their job

hatrickpatrick

conorh91 wrote: »

Because Syriza will either capitulate on their values, or Greece will return to the drachma. Either Syriza are ruined, or Greece is.

Why would it be so disastrous for them to leave the Euro? The Euro is an appallingly badly designed concept, primarily - thought not only - because of the idiotic limits Germany insists on placing on the central bank, preventing it from doing its job.

If every country which had been part of the Eurozone agreed tomorrow to disband it and return to sovereign currencies, are you saying this would be a Europe wide disaster? Or would it only be a disaster for Greece if they did it alone?

Quin_Dub

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

If every country which had been part of the Eurozone agreed tomorrow to disband it and return to sovereign currencies, are you saying this would be a Europe wide disaster? Or would it only be a disaster for Greece if they did it alone?

To be honest , it wouldn't be great for anyone if they just decided to scrap the Euro universally - It would hurt some more than other though.....Basically , the big economies would have a speed bump and the smaller economies (us!!) would be in for a serious adjustment/revaluation.

A unilateral exit by Greece would be utterly disastrous for them..

Let's say they do it and re-issue the Drachma at 10 to the euro , converting all the salaries etc. at that rate.

Instantly the new Drachma would go into free-fall and within days would be worth more like 30 to the Euro or worse..

So , now Import costs go through the roof , sure Exports get more competitive, but given that 40% of their exports are actually made up of them converting Crude Oil (which they import , 40% of their imports) into Petroleum products , it won't matter....They'd be calling in the Aid Agencies fairly quickly....

hatrickpatrick

Quin_Dub wrote: »

To be honest , it wouldn't be great for anyone if they just decided to scrap the Euro universally - It would hurt some more than other though.....Basically , the big economies would have a speed bump and the smaller economies (us!!) would be in for a serious adjustment/revaluation.

In the short term, sure. Long term, we would regain control over our respective currencies and we could leave the Germans to ridiculous restrict their own central bank while everyone else allows them to behave as proper central banks.

A unilateral exit by Greece would be utterly disastrous for them..

Let's say they do it and re-issue the Drachma at 10 to the euro , converting all the salaries etc. at that rate.

Instantly the new Drachma would go into free-fall and within days would be worth more like 30 to the Euro or worse..

So , now Import costs go through the roof , sure Exports get more competitive, but given that 40% of their exports are actually made up of them converting Crude Oil (which they import , 40% of their imports) into Petroleum products , it won't matter....They'd be calling in the Aid Agencies fairly quickly....

Why would the Drachma necessarily go into freefall? Not denying it, just asking.

Godge

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Why would the Drachma necessarily go into freefall? Not denying it, just asking.

Confidence, belief.

Can you find anyone working in finance anywhere in the world who believes, that left to themselves the Greeks would take the necessary hard decisions to sort their economy out?

Waiting...............Nope, nobody.

That means currency will plummet. Simple economics.

ezra_pound

Why would drachma go into free fall? Because the plan for Greece at present is to spend more and tax less. The only way they can do that, without the difference being made up by economic growth is for the central bank to literally create the extra drachmas. This means more money in circulation which means inflation.

ezra_pound

...Repeat process again and again and the inflation becomes greater and greater.

NIMAN

Had to laugh at all the anti-austerity folk over here saying it was great to see the Greeks making a stand and telling the IMF etc to get lost.

But have they really.

The country is bust and can't tell lenders to get lost. Who will lend them and keep the country functioning then?

Despite all the huff and puff from the newly elected Greek leaders, they will have to accept terms they will find hard to swallow.

Perhaps it might be a wake-up call to the anti-everything brigade here too, but I very much doubt it.

conorh91

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Why would the Drachma necessarily go into freefall? Not denying it, just asking.

If investors stop lending to the Greek Government, one of two things have to happen: either Greece implements austerity and balances its books, or else its NCB starts printing money by the new-time.

Greek-currency holders, having anticipated this, will already be furiously converting their money into euros or US dollars, or whatever they can get their hands on. Nobody wants to hold Greek drachmas, so the drachma loses its value.

realdanbreen

Would it be a good time to book a holiday in greece?

dlouth15

NIMAN wrote: »

Had to laugh at all the anti-austerity folk over here saying it was great to see the Greeks making a stand and telling the IMF etc to get lost.

But have they really.

The country is bust and can't tell lenders to get lost. Who will lend them and keep the country functioning then?

Despite all the huff and puff from the newly elected Greek leaders, they will have to accept terms they will find hard to swallow.

Perhaps it might be a wake-up call to the anti-everything brigade here too, but I very much doubt it.

It is not the need to borrow that might stop Greece telling their lenders to get lost for the simple reason that they currently meet their funding requirement from tax revenue.

No, what what stops them or might stop them is the ECB cutting off facilities to their banks thereby shutting them down. Greece would need to leave the Euro in order to support their banks.

Although this might be the best thing for Greece in the long run it would constitute a partial break-up of the Euro. It would change the nature of the currency forever. Although Greece would be likely to recover in the medium term, the Euro would not.

This is why moves are being made to negotiate with Greece. Most likely there will be a restructuring of the debt. Longer maturities and lower interest rates and so forth or some other equivalent to a write-down. Greece are going about it exactly the right way to get this deal.

BoJack Horseman

[quote="dlouth15;94071087"they currently meet their funding requirement from tax revenue. [/quote]
Something that got the former government kicked out.
Syriza promised to undo that.

15%+ bond rates ate going to sting.
Especially so when €7 billion matures in June -August.

No, what what stops them or might stop them is the ECB cutting off facilities to their banks thereby shutting them down. Greece would need to leave the Euro in order to support their banks.

I have a feeling the ECB will continue with its liquidity assistance.

Although Greece would be likely to recover in the medium term, the Euro would not.

I think Greece will remain the economic backwater it always really was .
if the Eurozone has the grapes to eject Greece, it could be the making of the currency...

dlouth15

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Something that got the former government kicked out.
Syriza promised to undo that.

It is true that Syriza can't expand public spending if they default on their debt and therefore may not meet their promises. However the burden of shipping money out of the wider economy in interest payments is lifted in the scenario where they tell the lenders to get lost.

15%+ bond rates ate going to sting.
Especially so when €7 billion matures in June -August.

Nothing matures in June - August if they have told the lenders to get lost.

I have a feeling the ECB will continue with its liquidity assistance.

I'm sure they'll be pleased to hear that and possibly you are right. But this is the main threat against Greece: the threat of having to leave the Euro chaotically. If as you say, the ECB will not do this, then that strengthens Greece's position greatly.

I think Greece will remain the economic backwater it always really was .

Sure but that is not what this is about is it? They have come to the end of what they can tolerate in terms of austerity. If you are drowning you don't worry about your long term career prospects, your concern is simply to stop drowning.

If the Eurozone has the grapes to eject Greece, it could be the making of the currency...

This I would have to disagree with. Sure it may go down well in some countries but the illusion - a necessary one perhaps - of irreversibility of Euro membership would be broken. Exiting the Euro would no longer be an unthinkable option for countries in trouble.

One view might be the Euro getting tough with errant members but another view would be that the Euro institutions are incapable of holding the Euro together.

BoJack Horseman

DLouth.... Your point is predicated (as you say) on Greece telling its lenders to "Get lost".
Ie: Default
Syriza said they don't intend to default .

However, they did say they will revert back to running a deficit.
They did say they intend to go begging to the troika to pay for it.

So without a default & by breaking existing term of credit, how are they going to roll over this years repayments?

dlouth15

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

DLouth.... Your point is predicated (as you say) on Greece telling its lenders to "Get lost".
Ie: Default
Syriza said they don't intend to default .

However, they did say they will revert back to running a deficit.
They did say they intend to go begging to the troika to pay for it.

So without a default & by breaking existing term of credit, how are they going to roll over this years repayments?

My reading of Syriza's position:

1. They will end austerity.
2. The will seek to negotiate a debt deal.

3. They don't want to leave the Euro.
4. They don't want to unilaterally default.

I'm simplifying things quite a bit here for the purposes of illustration. But I think a distinction needs to be drawn between things that they will do and things that they want to do. The other thing I would say is that I think they are serious and that they are aware of their strengths and weaknesses.

Quin_Dub

dlouth15 wrote: »

My reading of Syriza's position:

1. They will end austerity.
2. The will seek to negotiate a debt deal.

3. They don't want to leave the Euro.
4. They don't want to unilaterally default.

I'm simplifying things quite a bit here for the purposes of illustration. But I think a distinction needs to be drawn between things that they will do and things that they want to do. The other thing I would say is that I think they are serious and that they are aware of their strengths and weaknesses.

So basically , They want to get more money from Europe , Pay less back and piss it away on undeserved (and unaffordable) pay rises and public sector expansion.... any one else see what's wrong with that picture?

Look - I don't disagree at all about having a discussion about a debt restructure - Lower rates , longer terms etc. etc.

But that cannot come for free..

Austerity (I term I don't like , how about "balancing the books"??) , works - The problem is that not everybody has actually done it..

If we had a truly common currency, then everyone should have undergone this adjustment - Us , Greece , France, Germany...everybody

But we continue to have this twin speed thing going on where some are working through making the adjustments and other are doing nothing , that's the real underlying reason why it's taking so long..

It'd be like if Ireland still had the Punt and we decided that we'd introduce tax rises and service cuts just in Galway and Sligo because those 2 town's weren't going as well as some of the others...Makes no sense in a common currency area..

Back to the topic though... Syriza can't "End Austerity" AND get a debt restructure , who do they think is going to pay for that???

What they can do, however is get a debt restruture and change the focus of Austerity a bit , less tax increases and more public sector reform , Revenue collection reform etc.

Martha_Mae

realdanbreen wrote: »

Would it be a good time to book a holiday in greece?

Was there last June was gorgeous!

BoJack Horseman

dlouth15 wrote: »

My reading of Syriza's position:

1. They will end austerity.
2. The will seek to negotiate a debt deal.

3. They don't want to leave the Euro.
4. They don't want to unilaterally default.

I'm simplifying things quite a bit here for the purposes of illustration. But I think a distinction needs to be drawn between things that they will do and things that they want to do. The other thing I would say is that I think they are serious and that they are aware of their strengths and weaknesses.

When your election victory is on the back of promising to run perpetual deficits at someone else's expense, I'm perplexed as to what Greece's strengths are?

Strong nations don't usually get themselves into this mess.

I know you say a Greece-less Eurozone is a hammer blow to the currency.
I can't see why shedding the dead weight is anything other than a positive.

Martha_Mae

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

DLouth.... Your point is predicated (as you say) on Greece telling its lenders to "Get lost".
Ie: Default
Syriza said they don't intend to default .

However, they did say they will revert back to running a deficit.
They did say they intend to go begging to the troika to pay for it.

So without a default & by breaking existing term of credit, how are they going to roll over this years repayments?

This was sent to me by a Greek friend of mine.. can't make out the subs but it's featuring Prof. Rodney Shakespeare > youtube.com/watch?v=ndHa877sKmo

dlouth15

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

I can't see why shedding the dead weight is anything other than a positive.

There's certainly a positive aspect to it I will grant you that. But Greece also stands to gain in the longer term from leaving the Euro. Ideally a common currency should be made up of like-minded members with similar economies.

However to have a country leave the Euro - any country - creates problems for the long term credibility of the common currency.

Sure better never to have had Greece in the first place but it is too late for that.

There is also the aspect that Greece itself might be better off in the longer term outside the Euro after the not inconsiderable transitional difficulties.

So I think a potential grexit is more of a strength to Greece than a weakness.

Syriza would probably not consider this publicly as it is politically unpopular in Greece but they have a number of economists in their cabinet and I'm sure it has been discussed as a potential bargaining position. Should it happen it would be the ECB, not Greece as the cause.

Markcheese

dlouth15 wrote: »

My reading of Syriza's position:

1. They will end austerity.
2. The will seek to negotiate a debt deal.

3. They don't want to leave the Euro.
4. They don't want to unilaterally default.

I'm simplifying things quite a bit here for the purposes of illustration. But I think a distinction needs to be drawn between things that they will do and things that they want to do. The other thing I would say is that I think they are serious and that they are aware of their strengths and weaknesses.

They will end austerity ?
What does that mean ? Are they going to go back to pre-08 spending and taxation levels ? It's a crap sound bite !
And to be fair I hope Syriza help sort out greeces financial and social woes - but they have a lot of very idealistic new politicians to drag along with them-

dlouth15

Markcheese wrote: »

They will end austerity ?
What does that mean ? Are they going to go back to pre-08 spending and taxation levels ? It's a crap sound bite !
And to be fair I hope Syriza help sort out greeces financial and social woes - but they have a lot of very idealistic new politicians to drag along with them-

In terms of actions, it means that they have already reversed some of the austerity measures brought in under previous administrations. There was talk - and I'm sure various EU leaders thought this too - that once in power, Syriza would adopt a more accommodating stance with Europe. This does not appear to have happened. I think their strategy is to put the country on a collision course with Europe. Moreover I think this is the correct thing to do from Greece's point of view. I think they have calculated the various strengths and weaknesses of all the various parties and worked out that they can win.

What is it they think they can win? A much more comprehensive debt deal than would be possible with let us call it the Irish approach where things seem more sensible on the surface but little is achieved.

Yes they may fail to deliver everything they promise but I think we're making the mistake of assuming these are Irish-style jobsworth politicians. It doesn't look like they are career merc. occupiers.

Can you imagine this happening with Tsiparas?

dlouth15

One very interesting development is that Siriza have said that they will work with Eu institutions but no more with the Troika. http://www.theguardian.com/business/blog/live/2015/jan/30/greece-awaits-meeting-with-eurozone-finance-chief-live-updates

micosoft

dlouth15 wrote: »

One very interesting development is that Siriza have said that they will work with Eu institutions but no more with the Troika. http://www.theguardian.com/business/blog/live/2015/jan/30/greece-awaits-meeting-with-eurozone-finance-chief-live-updates

The Troika are made up of the EU, the ECB and the IMF. So two of those ARE the EU institutions. If they haven't' figured even that out they are even dumber then their policies suggest.

dlouth15

micosoft wrote: »

The Troika are made up of the EU, the ECB and the IMF. So two of those ARE the EU institutions. If they haven't' figured even that out they are even dumber then their policies suggest.

I think it is mainly the ECB that are to be excluded here. The rest of the EU will be negotiated with.

More on CNBC
Greece says will not cooperate with troika or seek aid extension

dlouth15

Euronews on the meeting:

Strangely not being reported on RTE. BBC have it though.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31055069

micosoft

dlouth15 wrote: »

I think it is mainly the ECB that are to be excluded here. The rest of the EU will be negotiated with.

More on CNBC
Greece says will not cooperate with troika or seek aid extension

Well given the ECB and IMF are independent entities that cannot be made do anything by the EU Governments I'm not sure what they are looking to negotiate about. They have one month before the ATM machines run out of money and this behavior of deliberately antagonizing the people they claim they want to work give lie to any serious ideas from Syrianza. What do they think the other EU states are going to say? Here's another blank cheque?

Sand

Maybe they are trying to make a specific point that the ECB has no role in dictating policies to national governments - it is independent, but that works both ways. The ECB under Trichet ran roughshod over small and weak nations, whilst growing increasingly shrill over any perceived government pressure on them.

Pushing them firmly back onto their side of the fence is long overdue. Again, Ireland could benefit from the Greeks fighting a battle the Irish are too afraid to fight themselves. For all the sneering at the Greeks in the last few posts, remember that *every* concession earned by Ireland in the past few years came as a result of the Greeks struggling with the Troika and Ireland claiming equivalence after the battle was won. Show *some* gratitude.

AlmightyCushion

Sand wrote: »

For all the sneering at the Greeks in the last few posts, remember that *every* concession earned by Ireland in the past few years came as a result of the Greeks struggling with the Troika and Ireland claiming equivalence after the battle was won. Show *some* gratitude.

That's not true. We were able to pay back the IMF portion of the bailout early saving us a lot on interest costs. We also had the promissory note deal with the ICB which will also save is on interest costs. Neither of those two had anything to do with Greece.

Sand

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

That's not true. We were able to pay back the IMF portion of the bailout early saving us a lot on interest costs.

Not a concession then?

We also had the promissory note deal with the ICB which will also save is on interest costs. Neither of those two had anything to do with Greece.

Might save...not will...might. Equally it might cost us more.

And also not a concession - done without any "deal" being made with the ECB. The ECB were and are very clear no "deal" was done. The idea is similar to the same Irish delusion over the summer 2012 "deal". The ECB have said they will investigate to see if the unilateral action by the Irish government constitutes money printing.

tralalala

The only way the greeks can get out of it is by negociating for more free money from the EU. But then they would just steal it again and be broke again. Their leftists policies do not work when you cant fund them.

I was in Greece, everyone was very nice and friendly, until I gave them the money for anything (food, transport, etc). Once they had their money they immediately turned into rude and arrogant people. So they reproduce this scheme with the EU. Be super nice and promise all sorts, get the money, give the finger.

You cannot work with them, cannot trust them, they will always rip you off. They do not belong in the EU, they do not
have Western European values


And despite all of this, I do not hope for the whole country to collapse under syrza, it would be too hard of a punishment.

BoJack Horseman

The 'having cake & eating it' is staggering.

- promise to return to deficit
- refuse to speak to your lender
Yet
- say they won't default (somehow)
- still have their hand out begging for more of other peoples money.

Quite incredible

dlouth15

Good analysis from Forbes magazine.

So Whose Problem Is Greek Debt, Anyway?

Grexit would be an unmitigated disaster not just for Greece, but for the whole Eurozone. And Varoufakis knows this perfectly well. Threatening to default is a powerful strategic move to which the Troika has so far found no satisfactory response. Withdrawing ELA from Greek banks would simply precipitate disorderly unwinding of the Euro. The ECB can no more follow through on this threat than it could when it threatened to do the same to the Irish banks in 2010. But Varoufakis is not Enda Kenny. The ECB may well find its bluff called this time.

Bit unfair on Enda Kenny here as he wasn't in power when Ireland Ireland was threatened.

frankbrett

dlouth15 wrote: »

Good analysis from Forbes magazine.

So Whose Problem Is Greek Debt, Anyway?

Grexit would be an unmitigated disaster not just for Greece, but for the whole Eurozone. And Varoufakis knows this perfectly well. Threatening to default is a powerful strategic move to which the Troika has so far found no satisfactory response. Withdrawing ELA from Greek banks would simply precipitate disorderly unwinding of the Euro. The ECB can no more follow through on this threat than it could when it threatened to do the same to the Irish banks in 2010. But Varoufakis is not Enda Kenny. The ECB may well find its bluff called this time.

Bit unfair on Enda Kenny here as he wasn't in power when Ireland Ireland was threatened.

It's a good article. I'd slightly quibble with the Greek exit = collapse of Euro currency being a fait accompli based on the assumption that it opens the door for Spain, Italy to leave. Firstly Greece is a somewhat unique basket case and secondly a Greece exit that led to spectacular upheaval and unrest in the short-term would strengthen the resolve of other indebted countries to find solution within the Eurozone.